Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: "The Last Hurdle Before Interest Rate Cuts: Inflation Control Confirmed - A Review of US Inflation Data in August 2025" [1] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - CPI and core CPI both increased in August, but the growth was limited, and the increase in core CPI was weaker than that of CPI [2]. - The increase in CPI was mainly driven by food and energy items, while core services showed controllable inflation under the slowdown of wage growth, and the real - estate market continued to cool down [8]. - Weak demand persists, and tariff exemptions are expected to further reduce inflationary pressure, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the market's expectation of a September rate cut remaining at 100% [8]. Group 4: Data Observation Price Indexes - In August, CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.84%, previous 2.7%) and 0.4% month - on - month (previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 3.05%, previous 3.0%) and 0.3% month - on - month (same as previous) [2]. Energy and Food Items - Energy items: In August, the energy sub - item rose 0.7% month - on - month (previous - 1.1%), with gasoline prices turning from a decline to an increase (1.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since January). Electricity and pipeline gas prices also rose significantly, with year - on - year increases of 6.2% and 13.8% respectively [3]. - Food items: In August, the food sub - item increased by 3.2% year - on - year (higher than the overall CPI) and 0.5% month - on - month (inflation expanded from July's 0.0%), with significant month - on - month increases in fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, and eggs [3]. Demand - Sensitive Indicators - Vehicle prices: Used car prices rose 1.0% month - on - month (previous 0.5%) and 6.0% year - on - year. New car prices also recovered, with a 0.3% month - on - month increase (previous 0.0%) and a 0.7% year - on - year increase (previous 0.4%) [4]. - Consumer confidence: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.2 in August (previous 61.7), the first decline in 4 months [4]. - Used car wholesale: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index showed that the year - on - year wholesale price dropped to 1.72%, and the month - on - month value was only 0.03% [4]. Demand - Lagging Indicators - Furniture prices: The month - on - month growth rate of furniture prices dropped to 0.1% (previous 0.7%), indicating that the impact of tariff costs on furniture prices is weakening and demand has not recovered [4]. Service - Related CPI - Service - related CPI: The month - on - month service CPI began to decline, and the year - on - year value remained the same. The housing market continued to cool down under the slowdown of wage growth [5]. Group 5: Deep Analysis - Inflation controllability: The increase in CPI in August was mainly due to volatile items, and core inflation was still controllable, which did not affect the expectation of an interest rate cut in September [8]. - Future trends: Weak demand continues, and tariff exemptions are expected to further reduce inflationary pressure, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates [8]. - Market reaction: The market regarded the inflation data as a positive signal. The FedWatch tool showed that the expectation of a September rate cut remained at 100%, and traders increased their bets on a rate cut in the second half of the year [8]. Group 6: Summary of Key Charts CPI and Core CPI Trends - Chart 1 shows the year - on - year trends of CPI and core CPI, including actual and predicted values [13][17]. - Chart 2 and 3 show the month - on - month trends of CPI and core CPI and their comparisons with previous years [13][18]. CPI Component Analysis - Chart 4 details the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various CPI components [13][20]. Other Market Indicators - Chart 5 shows the continuous decline of oil prices [13][21]. - Chart 6 shows that the used car wholesale price increased slightly with low volatility [13][21]. - Chart 7 shows that leading indicators of rent levels are on a continuous downward trend [13][23]. - Chart 8 shows that supply - chain pressure is decreasing while sales are slightly recovering [13][23]. - Chart 9 shows that the gap between average hourly wage growth and core CPI growth is narrowing [13][25]. - Chart 10 shows that the gap between average hourly wage growth and productivity growth is narrowing [13][26].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant increase on September 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.65% and the ChiNext Index soaring by 5.15% [2] - The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 2.46 trillion, an increase of 23% compared to the previous trading day [2] - All sectors showed gains, with notable leaders in telecommunications (7.39%), electronics (5.96%), and computers (3.71%), while textiles and apparel (0.14%), oil and petrochemicals (0.20%), and social services (0.22%) lagged behind [2] Key Insights - The market has returned to an upward trend, driven by multiple catalysts in the technology sector, leading to strong gains in growth and ChiNext stocks [2][5] - Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue is expected to grow by 77% year-on-year, with remaining performance obligations reaching $455 billion, a 359% increase [3] - The strong demand for AI has been confirmed, with Oracle's significant contracts with major clients like OpenAI and Meta contributing to its stock surge of 36% [3] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI and computing, is highlighted as a primary growth area, with strong performance expected due to high elasticity and supportive earnings [9] - The second main focus is on sectors with solid performance support, including rare earth magnets, precious metals, and engineering machinery, which are expected to benefit from geopolitical dynamics and economic conditions [10] - The release of new Apple products has invigorated the supply chain, with companies like Hon Hai Precision and Luxshare Precision seeing significant stock price increases following the announcement [4] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes maintaining a focus on high-elasticity growth technology sectors, which are expected to outperform due to their inherent advantages in a rising market [9] - It suggests that investors should avoid switching between sectors during this upward trend, as the strong main lines are likely to continue leading the market [9] - The report also indicates that the current market conditions, including favorable liquidity and government support for capital markets, are conducive to sustained investment in these sectors [8][5]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: How to View Price Signals in the Bond Market Correction? - Commentary on August Price Data [1] - Report Type: Commentary Report [6] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Main Viewpoints Data Observation: Characteristics of August Inflation Data - CPI: In August, the CPI year-on-year was -0.4%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month, falling back into the negative range and lower than the market expectation (-0.2%). The CPI month-on-month was 0%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. The food item dragged down the CPI significantly, while the core CPI continued to rise, significantly pulled by the gold price [2]. - PPI: The PPI year-on-year was -2.9%, with the decline narrowing compared to July but still lower than the market expectation (-2.88%). The PPI month-on-month was 0%, ending the five - month negative trend. The upstream price regulation continued to show its influence, but the price transmission from the production end to the demand end was still not smooth [2][3][4]. In - depth Perspective: Implications of August Price Data - From the perspective of residents' income, the year - on - year decline of the rent level has remained at -0.1% for six consecutive months since March, indicating that the income improvement trend may have stagnated [5]. - In terms of core indicators, the pork price in August dropped year - on - year to -16.1% and month - on - month to -0.5%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an oversupply of pork, and the decline in pork price also reflected the contraction of demand, which may continue to drag down the CPI [5][7]. - High - frequency data showed that the prices of various commodities declined, and the upward force on the PPI might weaken [7]. Future Outlook: Trends Seen from August Inflation Data - CPI: This month, the CPI declined more than expected, and the support for the core CPI was still weak. The decline in pork price and international oil price may continue to drag down the CPI. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of policies on the demand side [8]. - PPI: The PPI trend was still dominated by supply - side price regulation, but the upward momentum weakened. Whether the PPI can maintain the current level in the next month depends on the demand - side's ability to absorb [9]. - Bond Market: The CPI and PPI year - on - year were still in the negative range, and the bond market's continuous correction did not match the fundamentals. In the future, the market may return to the fundamentals, and there are still funds waiting to enter the bond market [9][10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The blood glucose segment shows steady growth, and the expansion into the European market is progressing smoothly [5][6] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.52% [4][5] - The company’s continuous growth in the blood glucose monitoring market is attributed to its high market share and the increasing contribution from its Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) products [5] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the blood glucose monitoring system generated revenue of 1.659 billion yuan (+6.88%), while diabetes nutrition and care products generated 149 million yuan (+11.47%) [5] - The company’s domestic revenue was 1.266 billion yuan (+5.40%), and overseas revenue was 744 million yuan (+7.06%) in H1 2025 [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.908 billion yuan, 5.530 billion yuan, and 6.130 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.5%, 12.7%, and 10.9% respectively [7][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 426 million yuan, 535 million yuan, and 666 million yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 30.6%, 25.7%, and 24.4% respectively [8][10] Market Expansion - The company has expanded its CGM product registration to several countries, including Brazil, Iran, and Vietnam, and has received EU MDR certification for its second-generation glucose monitoring system [6] - The company is also progressing with its CGM product registration in the U.S., with plans for clinical trials for the second-generation product expected to start in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025. Revenue reached 4.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 409 million yuan, up 16.43% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on mergers and acquisitions to expand its capacity, with a notable increase in new contracts for blasting services, amounting to 5.903 billion yuan, a 96% year-on-year growth [7] - The company has a strong market presence in both domestic and international markets, covering approximately 21 provinces in China and expanding into countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a basic earnings per share of 0.33 yuan, with the second quarter showing a revenue of 2.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.48% [4] - The gross profit margins for different segments were 34.48% for explosives, 29.19% for detonators, and 21.15% for engineering blasting, with a notable increase in the share of engineering blasting revenue [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025 to reach 864 million yuan, with projected earnings per share of 0.70 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.46 [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential expansion of the cross-period price difference after the expiration of the 2509 contract, emphasizing the impact of cross-period price differences on hedging costs [2][4]. Factors Influencing Cross-Period Basis - Multiple factors affect the cross-period basis, including the theoretical pricing of government bond futures, which is influenced by the net price of the CTD bond, the carry of the CTD bond, and the value of the delivery option [3][4]. - The cross-period price difference is positively correlated with the trend of funding rates. A significantly higher coupon rate on bonds compared to funding rates increases the likelihood of an upward movement in the cross-period price difference [4]. - The value difference of delivery options between near and far-month contracts also affects the cross-period price difference. As the probability of CTD switching increases, the value of the delivery option for the far-month contract rises, leading to potential expansion of the cross-period price difference [4][6]. Calendar Effect on Cross-Period Price Difference - An analysis of the cross-period price difference for the T contract since 2024 indicates a higher probability of upward movement, primarily due to the convergence of basis as the near-month contract approaches expiration [6]. - The report suggests that the T/TL contracts are currently at a high position, recommending a narrow basis strategy, while in the context of the equity market disturbances, a steep curve strategy can still be pursued [6]. Conclusion - The report concludes that in a relatively loose funding environment, it may be appropriate to take a long position on the cross-period basis, particularly observing the liquidity of the 2603 contract as the 2509 contract approaches expiration [6].

江苏神通（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002438） 公司点评 2025H1 核电业务收入同比+16%，在手订单充足 | | | 报告日期： 2025-09-09 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 13.52 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 15.25/9.27 | | 总股本（百万股） | 508 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 469 | | 流通股比例（%） | 92.38 | | 总市值（亿元） | 69 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 63 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -16% 4% 23% 43% 62% 9/24 12/24 3/25 6/25 江苏神通 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 执业证书号：S0010523120004 邮箱：zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师：王璐 执业证书号：S0010525040001 邮箱：wanglu1@hazq.com 分析师：徒月婷 执业证书号：S0010522110003 邮箱：tuyuetin ...

芯碁微装（ 688630） 公司点评 PCB 直写光刻增长强劲，拓展钻孔设备，泛半导体多领域突破 | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-09-09 | | | 收盘价（元） | 134.20 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元）159.99/47.09 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 132 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 132 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 177 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 177 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 分析师：徒月婷 执业证书号：S0010522110003 邮箱：tuyueting@hazq.com 相关报告 1.《芯碁微装：PCB 直写光刻设备领军 企业，泛半导体业务打造新增长极》 2024-2-20 2.《PCB 高端品&海外业务增长强劲， 泛半导体多领域协同突破》2025-4-30 主要观点： 事件概况 芯碁微装于 2025 年 8 月 27 日发布 2025 年半年度报告： 2025 半年度公司实现营业收入为 6.54 亿元，同比增加 45.59%；归 母净利润 ...

固收周报 股强债弱，还有多少观点看多债市？ [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 ——债市情绪面周报（9 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-09-08 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：1.80%是利率上行的短期阻力 目前股债跷跷板仍是债市交易的主线，在投资者风险偏好回升下债市 短暂受到压制，利率在上下阻力位之间持续震荡（1.75%-1.80%），我们认 为 9 月债市可能打破季节性规律，历史的下跌可能在 8 月已经调整到位， 短期仍有做多的机会，此前财政部与央行工作会议重提国债买卖，对于债 市而言是利好，至少三四季度流动性整体无虞，季末银行兑现浮盈卖出老 券预期再起，但我们认为压力可能小于一季度，增值税新规后银行卖老债 意愿也会减弱，从近期债市表现 ...

- The report tracks the recent IPO performance in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market), ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are fully subscribed and sold at the average market price on the first day of listing, ignoring lock-up period restrictions[1][11] - As of September 5, 2025, the IPO yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion RMB is 2.09%, while for Class B accounts of the same scale, it is 1.89%[11] - For larger accounts with a scale of 10 billion RMB, the IPO yield is 0.65% for Class A accounts and 0.59% for Class B accounts[11] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 218.45%, while for ChiNext stocks, it is 222.39%[1][21] - The median number of valid bidding accounts for recent IPOs is approximately 3,062 for Class A accounts and 1,602 for Class B accounts in the STAR Market, 3,728 for Class A accounts and 2,098 for Class B accounts in ChiNext, and 3,972 for Class A accounts and 2,346 for Class B accounts in the Main Board[2][26]