[Table_StockName基Rpt础Typ化e] 工 行业研究/行业周报 印度叫停对华钛白粉反倾销税，西湖集团关停在美 4 家工厂 行业评级： 增持 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com 主要观点： 报告日期： 2025-12-22 [T行ab业le_周Su观m点mary] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 本周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名 第 5 位，涨跌幅为 2.58% ，走势处于市场整体上游。上证综指涨跌 幅为 0.03%，创业板指涨跌幅为-2.26%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综 指 2.55 个百分点，跑赢创业板指 4.83 个百分点。 2025 年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农 药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃化工、COC 聚合物、MDI 等行 业: 分析师：王强峰 （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材 料或在局部面 ...

全球科技（计算机） [Table_IndNameRptType] 行业周报 智谱、MiniMax 通过港交所聆讯，冲刺大模型第一股 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-12-22 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 沪深300 计算机（申万） [分析师： Table_Author] 金荣 执业证书号： S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 分析师：来祚豪 执业证书号： S0010524100001 邮箱：laizh@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Summary] T_Summary] 12 月 17 日，智谱与 MiniMax 均通过港交所上市聆讯 智谱通过港交所上市聆讯，标志港股首次迎来一家以"基座模 型"为核心的上市公司，而 MiniMax 聚焦多模态模型领域，这表明 以基座模型和多模态模型为主要赛道的 AI 大模型公司，正式进入 港股 IPO 冲刺阶段，预计 2026 年初登陆资本市场。产品方面，智 谱积极推出开源基座模型 GLM-4.5 和 GLM-4 ...

周度报告 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 策略研究 1 月市场和行业有何日历效应？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-12-21 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《换手率对当下成长行情 节奏如何指示？》2025-12-14 2.年度策略《破晓：从预期到盈利的切 换—2026 年 A 股投资策略》2025-12- 08 3.策略月报《酝酿新机—2025 年 12 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》2025-11-30 4.策略周报《市场见底前银行如何博 弈？》2025-11-23 主要观点 [Table_Sum ...

Group 1: Generative AI and Computing Power - The landscape of generative AI is shifting from a "single supplier" model to a "multi-architecture + multiple leading players" competition, with NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon leading the charge in AI chip development [22][23] - The AI server interconnect is evolving from board-level PCIe and copper cabling to rack-level optical interconnects and reconfigurable network architectures, enhancing data transmission capabilities [24][25] - The storage sector is entering a "super cycle" driven by HBM, GDDR, DRAM, NAND, and CXL technologies, as AI models demand increased data capacity and bandwidth [27][28][31] Group 2: AI Applications and Industry Impact - Video generation models have reached a "production-grade" stage, with companies like Google and Kuaishou leading the way in integrating AI into content creation workflows [32][33] - The advertising, gaming, and automation sectors are undergoing significant transformations due to AI, with enhanced precision in ad targeting and reduced production costs in gaming [9][10] - The publishing industry is characterized by stable demand for educational materials and low PE ratios, providing a safety net for investors [12] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced a notable recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by advancements in AI and generative models, which restored investor confidence [35][38] - The MAG 7 stocks showed significant performance differentiation, with Google and NVIDIA outperforming the market, while other major players like Tesla and Microsoft lagged behind [38]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

Group 1 - The report highlights the limitations of traditional multi-factor models, which face inherent path dependency and structural mismatches, leading to a dilution of returns and an inability to capture high elasticity styles [2][25][26] - The report proposes a dual-driven solution based on XGBoost non-linear prediction and high elasticity alpha extraction, achieving an annualized excess return of 20.0% across ten market segments with an information ratio of 3.78 [3][4] - The integration of high elasticity strategies significantly enhances the performance of traditional index-enhanced models, with annualized excess returns improving by 2.1% to 4.7% compared to single strategies [4][12][19] Group 2 - The report discusses the challenges faced by traditional multi-factor models, particularly their reliance on historical data and the inability to adapt to changing market structures, which can lead to systematic failures during specific market conditions [21][22][25] - It emphasizes the non-normal distribution of returns in the market, where excess returns are often concentrated in a few stocks, contradicting the diversification philosophy of traditional models [26][28][29] - The analysis reveals that the performance of quantitative strategies is closely tied to specific style factors, indicating a path dependency that can hinder adaptability in dynamic market environments [32][34][37]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is accelerating, with a focus on humanoid robots [1] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to expand, particularly in high-risk work environments [13] - Recent developments include the launch of the first humanoid robot application store and the establishment of a provincial drone management platform in Guangdong [3][2] Weekly Market Review - Major A-share indices showed significant recovery, with weekly changes for the CSI 300, ChiNext 300, STAR 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 being -0.08%, 2.42%, 1.72%, 1.01%, and 0.39% respectively, with the ChiNext 300 showing the most notable rebound [10][12] - The humanoid robot sector has seen a mixed performance, with top gainers including Chaojie Co., Hualing Cable, and Changguang Fiber, while losers included Ruineng Technology and Nanshan Zhishang [20][21] Recent Hotspots and Events - National Machine Diamond's technological breakthroughs in diamond synthesis and applications were highlighted in a CCTV Finance program [2] - The launch of the Lingxi X2 humanoid robot by Zhiyuan Robotics received multiple certifications for the Chinese, EU, and US markets [2] Emerging Industry Company Tracking - The launch of the humanoid robot application store by Yushu Technology is a significant development in the industry [3] - Guangdong's establishment of a provincial drone management platform aims to create a unified service ecosystem [3] - Blues Technology announced plans to acquire Peimei Gao International Co., enhancing its capabilities in advanced liquid cooling systems [3] - The China National Space Administration's action plan encourages commercial aerospace companies to engage in international competition [3] Key Emerging Industry Company Announcements - Zhejiang Double Ring Transmission's employee stock ownership plan was approved, with unanimous support from participants [23][24] - Huahai Qingke's fourth extraordinary shareholders' meeting approved the reappointment of the auditing firm for 2025 [25]

Key Insights - The report indicates that the central economic work conference and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting have concluded smoothly, with overall policy coherence and limited marginal changes, suggesting that the market will continue to experience high-level fluctuations [1] - The report emphasizes that industry rotation remains the main theme, but the difficulty of grasping this trend is increasing, recommending careful positioning for the next phase of the market, particularly focusing on the AI industry chain as a core direction [1][4] - Additionally, sectors experiencing supply-demand recovery and upward economic trends, such as storage and energy chains, are also highlighted as areas of importance [1] Market Data Analysis - The economic data released for November shows a continuation of the previous trend of marginal slowdown, with exports maintaining a high level of prosperity, while financial data indicates weak domestic demand [3][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a strong trend primarily driven by fresh vegetable prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has not shown a significant narrowing of decline, indicating a stable low price level [14][16] - The report notes that the social financing increased by 24,885 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan, while the increase in RMB loans was 3,181 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 917 billion yuan, mainly due to the weak performance in the household sector [11][14] Industry Configuration - The report suggests continuing to focus on the AI industry chain for investment opportunities, indicating that the current growth style and communication sector are at relatively low turnover rates, implying a significant potential for short-term price increases [24][35] - The analysis of turnover rates indicates that during the first phase of the growth industry cycle, turnover rates can serve as an effective auxiliary indicator for observing the growth style and strong main lines, with high turnover rates often preceding market corrections [24][35] - The report outlines a three-phase framework for the growth industry cycle, emphasizing that the current market is still in the early stages of this cycle, with significant room for growth remaining [25][35] Specific Sector Insights - The AI industry is identified as a core main line with a clear upward trend, and the report suggests that adjustments in this sector provide good opportunities for future positioning [37] - The report also highlights the importance of sectors experiencing supply-demand improvements, particularly in storage and energy chains, which are expected to benefit from AI-driven demand and other market dynamics [37][39]

Investment Rating - The report rates the OCS optical switch industry as a promising investment opportunity, highlighting its potential growth driven by AI computing demands [3]. Core Insights - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology is positioned as an ideal solution for high-bandwidth, low-latency communication, essential for AI model training and data center interconnectivity [3][10]. - The global OCS market is projected to grow from $0.7 billion in 2020 to $7.8 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% [3][50]. - The OCS industry is characterized by high technical barriers and a fragmented supply chain, with key players concentrated in specific segments of the value chain [3][55]. Summary by Sections 1. OCS Technology Overview - OCS operates on a fully optical signal basis, eliminating the need for optical-electrical-optical conversion, thus reducing latency and power consumption [9]. - The technology is crucial for AI computing clusters, particularly in scenarios like Scale-Up, Scale-Out, and Scale-Across, which require efficient interconnectivity [10][12]. 2. Market Growth and Demand - The demand for OCS is driven by the increasing requirements for bandwidth and low latency in AI model training, with major applications in data centers [3][10]. - Major companies like Google and Coherent are leading the market, which is expected to see significant growth in the coming years [3][50]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - The OCS industry chain consists of upstream core components, midstream equipment integration, and downstream applications, with high technical barriers in the upstream segment [55][57]. - Key players in the upstream include MEMS manufacturers, while midstream is dominated by international firms like Ciena and domestic players like Guangke Technology [55][56]. 4. Investment Opportunities - Companies like Ying Tang Intelligent Control are recommended for their comprehensive OCS technology layout and potential for growth in the AI computing market [66]. - Semiconductor manufacturer Saiwei Electronics is highlighted for its strong position in the MEMS sector, which is critical for OCS technology [66][94].