石药集团（1093 HK） | 2025 年 6 月 3 日 香港股市 | 医药 石药集团（1093 HK） 一季度产品销售承压，未来有望达成多项授权 2025 年 1 季度产品销售收入逊预期 公司 2025 年 1 季度总收入同比下降 21.9%至 70.1 亿元（人民币，下同），股东净利润 同比下降 8.4%至 14.8 亿元。虽然总收入与股东净利润均超预期，但如剔除 7.18 亿元的 授权费收入，公司的产品销售收入较我们的预测低约 4.6%，主要是成药业务中产品销 售收入的放缓造成。成药业务中，由于核心产品恩必普受医保控费影响，神经系统药 物收入同比下降 29.5%。肿瘤药的销售仍受多美素与津优力集采的影响，1 季度销售收 入下降 65.7%。由于多美素与津优力的集采是 2024 年 3 月起执行，我们原来也预计 1 季度销售收入仍将同比下滑，但实际降幅更大。 预计 2 季度起产品销售收入将缓步回升 由于多美素与津优力的集采是去年 3 月开始执行，因此截止 1 季度集采的影响已反映， 而且公司表示肿瘤药恩朗苏拜单抗注射液与神经系统药物明复乐等 2024 年底入医保后 销量也在增加，因此预计 2 季度后公 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 星期三 每日大市点评 6 月 3 日，港股全线反弹，全天维持高位震荡，恒生指数上涨 1.5%，收报 23,512；恒生科技指数上涨 1.1%，收报 5,189。 昨日大市成交额达到 2,037 亿港元，成交量较前几个交易日明显放大，显示情绪显著回暖，但港股通仅净流入 39 亿港 元。盘面上，多个权重板块发力支撑大市，其中大金融股表现尤为强势，中信银行（998 HK）、工商银行（1398 HK）、 农业银行（1288 HK）等多只银行股创历史新高，保险及券商股同步走强，显示资金仍继续涌入高股息防御资产。科技龙 头同步企稳，小米（1810 HK）涨超 3%，网易（9999 HK）及腾讯（700 HK）分别上涨逾 2%和 1.3%，百度（9888 HK）、 美团（3690 HK）、阿里巴巴（9988 HK）跟涨，反映市场对中美关系阶段性缓和的预期升温（中美元首或本周内推进通 话）。受地缘政治不确定性上升影响，黄金股全线走强，招金矿业（1818 HK）、紫金矿业（2899 HK）涨幅居前。新消费 龙头继续领先，泡泡玛特（9992 HK）和老铺黄金（6181 HK）分别创历史新高以及年内累 ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 星期二 每日大市点评 6 月 2 日，在港股通缺席下，港股大盘日内走势显著波动。忧虑中美贸易谈判不确定性上升，恒生指数早段裂口低开后一 度下跌超过 2.5%，但见 22,668 点，午后跌幅收窄，最终下跌 155 点或 0.7%，收报 23,134 点。恒生科指下跌 0.8%，收报 5,128 点。大市成交金额仅 1,394 多亿港元。尽管恒生指数呈现先低后高走势，但走势上逐渐跌离 5 月 12 日至 5 月 30 日 横行区间。若短期缺乏积极催化剂使大盘反弹重回 23,400 点以上，港股有机会出现更深的调整。盘面上，市宽表现不 佳，主板多达 1,016 只股份下跌，但能否逆市上升甚至创近期新高的股份或板块应值得注视。权重互联网股方面，仅腾讯 (700 HK)及小米(1810 HK)逆市上升，而阿里(9988 HK)、美团(3690 HK)、京东(9618 HK)下跌 0.2%至 1.7%不等。友邦 (1299 HK)上升 0.1%，股价贴近 5 月高位。黄金相关股受惠金价造好，如中国黄金(2099 HK)、山东黄金(1787 HK)、招金 (1818 HK)分别升 1.9%至 ...

Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled against Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy, stating it exceeded authority, leading to a temporary halt on tariffs[1][2] - The ruling alleviated concerns over global economic impacts, contributing to a rise in stock markets, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 315 points or 1.4% to close at 23,573 points[1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5%, closing at 5,301 points, with total market turnover slightly increasing to over HKD 226.9 billion[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 4.38 billion, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite[1] Sector Movements - High beta and small-cap stocks saw increased trading activity, with Meituan and JD.com shares rising by 6.6% and 4.2%, respectively[1] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced gains ahead of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting, with CSPC Pharmaceutical surging by 11.6%[5] Economic Indicators - The FOMC maintained interest rates amid inflation and growth concerns, with a cautious outlook on future economic data[3] - Manufacturing and services PMI data showed resilience in the U.S. economy, contributing to the Fed's decision to hold rates steady[3][15] Real Estate Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing significant growth, particularly in Guangzhou with a 29.5% increase[7][8] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities decreased to 85.3, indicating a tightening market[9] Risks and Outlook - Ongoing legal challenges and potential trade policy shifts pose risks to market stability and economic growth[2][18] - The market is entering a policy observation phase, with potential impacts from U.S.-China tensions and domestic economic conditions[14]

Market Overview - On May 28, the Hang Seng Index fell by 123 points or 0.5%, closing at 23,258 points, remaining below the 20-day moving average for three consecutive trading days[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.2%, closing at 5,174 points, indicating a weaker performance compared to the Hang Seng Index[1] - Daily trading volume dropped to over HKD 180.8 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 3.58 billion through the Stock Connect[1] - Average daily trading volume in May has decreased by approximately 17.5% compared to the average since the beginning of the year[1] Sector Performance - Low beta stocks in telecommunications, energy, and food and beverage sectors performed well, with Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) and Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) rising by 4.1% and 3.2% respectively[1] - Notable declines were observed in "new consumption" stocks, such as Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK), which fell by 5.5% and 7.1% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The real estate market showed slight improvement, with new home transaction volume in 30 major cities reaching 2.02 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%[4] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for new homes in major cities decreased to 85.3, down from 93.7 a year ago[6] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 35.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in land sales activity[7] Investment Strategy - The market is currently under pressure from both internal and external factors, with a lack of positive catalysts and ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations[1][11] - Investment strategies should focus on defensive sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and energy, as well as consumer sectors benefiting from policy support[11]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 99 points or 0.4% to close at 23,381 points, remaining below the 20-day moving average for the second consecutive day[1] - The total market turnover decreased to HKD 203.3 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 11.975 billion through the Stock Connect[1] - Defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, insurance, and aviation stocks showed strong performance, with major airlines rising between 2.9% and 4.6%[1] Sector Performance - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, with the stock rising by 2.1% after an initial drop[1] - Increased competition in the instant retail and takeaway market may weaken profit margins and cash flow for Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba, potentially affecting shareholder returns[1] - The logic for investing in Chinese internet companies may shift due to intensified competition, leading to a potential diversion of funds to companies like Tencent with stronger competitive advantages[1] Real Estate Insights - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 2.02 million square meters, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, contrasting with a 6.7% decline the previous week[3] - In first-tier cities, transaction volumes showed significant improvement, with Beijing up 1.1%, Shanghai up 8.8%, Guangzhou up 29.5%, and Shenzhen up 47.0% year-on-year[4] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities decreased to 85.3, down from 93.7 a year ago, indicating a tightening market[5] Land Transactions - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 35.8% year-on-year to 12.87 million square meters, reflecting a significant decline in market activity[6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a defensive investment strategy focusing on high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and energy, as well as consumer sectors benefiting from policy support[10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on May 26, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 319 points or 1.4%, closing at 23,282 points, marking the first time since April 16 that it fell below the 20-day moving average [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.7%, closing at 5,157 points, reaching its lowest closing price in May [1] - The increase in trading volume to HKD 223.5 billion indicates a shift towards defensive investments, particularly in state-owned enterprises, as risk appetite weakens [1] Real Estate Dynamics - New home sales in 30 major cities showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with a notable rise in first-tier cities [2] - The transaction volume reached 202 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 9.8%, although this was lower than the previous week's growth [2] Automotive Industry Trends - The automotive sector faced a significant downturn, with major players like BYD and Geely experiencing stock declines of 8.6% and 9.5%, respectively, amid concerns over a price war in the domestic car market [3] - The first four months of 2025 saw over 4.4 million new energy vehicles sold in China, indicating a rising market penetration despite fierce competition [3] Nuclear Power Sector - Nuclear power stocks continued to rise following the signing of an executive order by Trump to reform the nuclear regulatory commission, which is expected to accelerate the development of the U.S. nuclear energy industry [4] - Companies like China General Nuclear Power and Harbin Electric saw stock increases of 3.9% to 8.4% [4] Strategic Outlook - The report from Zhongtai International suggests a cautious approach to the Hong Kong stock market, emphasizing a "defensive counterattack" strategy focusing on high-dividend sectors and policy-supported consumption [7] - Recommended sectors include telecommunications, utilities, and energy, as well as consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and upcoming sales events [7] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights several stocks as potential investment opportunities, including Tencent, Midea Group, and China Water Affairs, among others [8]

Market Overview - On May 22, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline after two consecutive days of gains, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 283 points or 1.2% to close at 23,544 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.7% to 5,251 points. The total market turnover exceeded HKD 198.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 3.88 billion from the Stock Connect [1] - The internal quality of Hong Kong stocks weakened, with over 1,000 stocks declining. Major sectors, except for Chinese banks, generally fell. Alibaba (9988 HK) dropped by 3.3%, and Baidu (9888 HK) fell by 4.0% after its earnings report, indicating a lack of direction among other internet giants [1] - Despite a vibrant IPO market, the overall risk appetite in Hong Kong stocks is declining, as evidenced by the divergence between the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index. The performance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (Red Chip Index) outperformed the overall market, reflecting a shift of funds from high beta sectors to more defensive ones [1] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors (9863 HK) reported better-than-expected Q1 results, with net losses narrowing to RMB 660 million, compared to RMB 1.37 billion in the same period last year. Q1 delivery volume and revenue surged by 3.3 times and 1.4 times, reaching 94,000 units and RMB 15.81 billion, respectively. The company expects Q2 delivery volume to increase by over 2.3 times year-on-year and revenue to rise by 1.1-1.3 times [2] - XPeng anticipates continued improvement in gross margins in the second half of the year, with an overall expectation of turning profitable in Q4. The company's advancements in AI are expected to significantly enhance its smart driving capabilities, with plans to launch a humanoid robot by 2026 [2] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 0.92%, but companies like Innovent Biologics (1801 HK), China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), and Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) saw increases ranging from 0.48% to 5.44%. Rongchang announced a placement of 19 million shares at HKD 42.44 each, a 9.51% discount to the closing price on May 21, raising approximately HKD 800 million for R&D and business expansion [3] - The recent rise in Rongchang's stock price is attributed to the progress of its core product, VidiXimab, which has been approved for treating HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer in China and has reached key research endpoints in urothelial carcinoma studies [3] Energy and Utilities Sector - The renewable energy and utilities sector in Hong Kong generally declined, with significant drops in stocks like GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK), Longyuan Power (916 HK), and Huadian International (1071 HK), which fell by 5.5%, 2.9%, and 3.5%, respectively. The recent slight increase in overseas natural gas prices has negatively impacted investor sentiment towards natural gas stocks [4] Strategy Outlook - The report from Zhongtai International suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, emphasizing a "defensive counterattack" strategy. It highlights the importance of focusing on defensive sectors and policy catalysts, including high-dividend defensive sectors (telecommunications, utilities, energy), consumption sectors benefiting from policy support and festive boosts, and sectors with breakthroughs in technology (biopharmaceuticals, high-end manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, AI computing) [7] - The report also notes that the Hang Seng Index has fully recovered all declines since early April, with valuations significantly restored. The current risk premium is close to two standard deviations below the rolling two-year average, reflecting the temporary easing of trade tensions [7] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tencent (700 HK), Midea Group (300 HK), China Water Affairs (855 HK), Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), XinAo Energy (2688 HK), GigaDevice Semiconductor (2367 HK), China Unicom (762 HK), CNOOC (883 HK), Innovent Biologics (1801 HK), and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) [8]

Market Overview - On May 20, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, driven by consumer stocks, pharmaceuticals, and new IPOs, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 348 points or 1.5% to close at 23,681 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.2%, closing at 5,317 points, with a total market turnover exceeding HKD 198.3 billion [1] - Notable stock performances included a 32.2% surge in 3SBio (1530 HK) after a commercialization agreement with Pfizer, and a 16.2% rise in Rongchang Bio (9995 HK) [1] Industry Dynamics Automotive Sector - CATL (3750 HK) saw a 16.4% increase on its first day of trading in Hong Kong, significantly outperforming its A-share counterpart, which rose by only 1.1% [3] - Leap Motor (9863 HK) reported a 62.1% year-on-year increase in sales for Q1, with revenue up 87.1% [3] Consumer Sector - The pet services sector in Hong Kong, particularly Chaoyun Group (6601 HK), experienced a 13.8% increase, reaching a 52-week high, driven by market rumors regarding acquisitions [3] - Chaoyun's pet services are projected to generate approximately HKD 130 million in revenue in 2024, accounting for 7% of total revenue [3] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 2.6%, with strong subscription responses for major players like Hengrui Medicine (1276 HK) and 3SBio [4] - 3SBio's agreement with Pfizer could yield up to USD 12.5 billion in upfront and milestone payments, boosting investor sentiment [4] Utilities Sector - The utilities sector, including electricity, water, and gas stocks, saw general increases, with China Water (855 HK) rising by 2.3% [5] - April's industrial output in China grew by 6.1% year-on-year, supporting demand for utility services [5] Strategic Outlook - The report indicates a phase of rebalancing amid uncertainties, with a temporary easing of US-China trade tensions and a focus on domestic economic recovery [6] - The Hang Seng Index has fully recovered losses from early April, with current valuations reflecting a risk premium close to historical lows [8] - Investment strategies suggest a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend sectors, policy-supported consumer segments, and technology breakthroughs in biopharma and high-end manufacturing [8] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tencent (700 HK), Midea Group (300 HK), China Water (855 HK), Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), and others, reflecting a diverse range of sectors [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose 2.1% last week, closing at 23,345 points, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.0%, closing at 5,281 points[1] - Average daily trading volume increased by 16.1% week-on-week to over HKD 232.5 billion[1] - Net outflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was approximately HKD 8.7 billion for the week, with a significant reduction in cumulative net inflow to HKD 16.8 billion over the past 20 days[1] Sector Performance - The financial sector surged by 3.8%, driven mainly by domestic banks and insurers[1] - Industrial, energy, and telecommunications sectors also saw gains of 2% or more over the week[1] Investment Sentiment - Since mid-April, the flow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect has been volatile, with a record net outflow of HKD 18.5 billion on May 12, indicating a cautious stance from southbound investors[2] - The current AH premium index has dropped to the 16.0 percentile since 2020, suggesting insufficient value for aggressive buying[2] - The Hang Seng Index faces significant resistance in the 23,500-24,000 point range, with potential for continued volatility if southbound fund support diminishes[2] Macro Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing structural debt imbalance and increasing fiscal deficit pressures[3] - The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035, raising concerns about long-term repayment capacity[3] - Despite the downgrade, Moody's maintains that systemic risk has not reached a critical point, and market reactions will depend more on policy responses and economic data than on the rating change itself[3] Industry Developments - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 0.6%, with notable gains from companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical (3.1% to 3.9% increase)[4] - CSPC signed an exclusive licensing agreement for a cancer treatment in the U.S., receiving an upfront payment of USD 15 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 25 million[4] - The IPO of Heng Rui Medicine received a "subscribe" rating, with projected revenue growth of 7.3% and net profit growth of 10.1% for 2023-24[4][7] New Drug Approvals - Rongchang Biotech's new indication for its drug has been approved, expected to boost sales significantly[11] - The company reported a 59.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 530 million for Q1 2025, with a reduction in net loss by 27.2%[13] - Target price for Rongchang Biotech has been raised to HKD 45.00, reflecting positive adjustments in revenue and profit forecasts[14]