苹果、阿里将联手，AI 市场格局重塑 摘要 今天市场整体表现出人意料，尤其是下午一点半之后，市场出现明显拉升。全 天来看，多空博弈较为激烈，但力量对比相对均衡。从下午一点半开始，尤其 是两点半之后，市场快速拉升，帮助沪指冲击 3,350 点关口。再往上走接近 3,400 点位置，有一个重要的长线中枢。如果市场继续上涨，将摆脱 3,500 点 • 沪指尾盘快速拉升，受益于宏观、政策、技术及基本面等多重因素共振， 科技股和地产板块表现强势，其中科技股受苹果与阿里合作推动 Apple Intelligence 落地影响，地产板块或受巨头债务利好消息提振。 • 权重板块如银行和红利资产逐渐活跃，需关注政策支持和增量资金流入。 去年中央经济工作会议定调货币政策转为适度宽松，预计 2025 年相关供给 数据将快速增长，全球主要央行推动降息周期，这些因素与春季行情密切 相关。 • 市场在 1 月初至 1 月 13 日呈现弱势回落，但春节前一两周通常迎来转机， 节后两三周内市场往往有明显上涨趋势，近十年历史数据多次验证此规律。 科技股是本轮行情的重要推动力，苹果与阿里的合作对 AI 行业产生深远影 响。 • 当前市场中，以 ...

全球 AI 竞争力指数解读：谁是下一个 AI 强国？ 摘要 Q&A Nadella 和 DeepMind 首席执行官 Dennis 也参与了此次峰会。 本次峰会主要探 讨了几个重要议题：首先是全球人工智能治理的挑战，包括当前 AI 发展呈现碎 片化，由私营企业和大学实验室主导，而公共机构法律框架相对滞后；其次是 国家间 AI 发展的不均等，高收入国家如美国、中国、法国和德国在 AI 发展上 处于领先地位，而发展中国家与发达国家之间存在技术鸿沟。会议呼吁推动多 边合作，效仿巴黎协定的气候治理模式，制定普惠性的 AI 发展框架。 另一个 重要议题是人工智能发展过程中的环境与可持续性问题。随着算力需求迅猛增 加，各国需要平衡能源消耗与低碳目标之间的矛盾。例如，美国重启核电站设 施供电，法国通过高效核能发电提供 AI 算力。此外，与会代表还讨论了绿色 AI 相关的问题。 最后一个议题是技术与社会公平问题。参会代表呼吁支持各 国特别是南方国家建立 AI 生态系统，以避免技术垄断和数字鸿沟，并强调了 AI 伦理及风险管控的重要性。 峰会上有哪些值得分享的重要观点？ 在峰会第一天结束时，东道主法国总统马克龙致辞中明确表示， ...

智驭未来：拥抱 AI 系列专题培训 摘要 Q&A 近年来 AI 产业链的估值情况如何？ 近年来，以英伟达、微软、海兰信为代表的 AI 龙头企业的估值显著提升。例如， 微软当前的估值已超过历史中枢水平，达到历史高点。此外，传统服务器厂商 如超威半导体和戴尔的估值也创下近五年的新高。尽管这些公司的历史估值水 平较低，但在 AI 产业趋势的推动下，其故事体系得到了重构。目前整个 AI 产 业链的估值相对较低，包括英伟达，其当前估值约为历史水平的 15%至 20%。亚 马逊和谷歌也处于类似情况，分别在 20%左右。尽管这些公司股价经历了显著 • AI 产业链估值重构：尽管英伟达、亚马逊和谷歌等公司股价创下新高，但 受益于 AI 业务带来的 EPS 增长，其估值仍处于历史相对较低水平，约为历 史水平的 15%至 20%。 • AI 硬科技产业链关键环节：AI 芯片（云端和端侧）、存储技术和终端设备 是受益最大的三个环节，其中 AI 芯片价值量提升最高，壁垒也最高，存储 技术是本轮 AI 基建投资以及端侧性能升级幅度最大的品种。 • 算力需求与芯片性能差距：过去六年 AI 大模型训练算力需求增长近 20 万 倍，而算力芯 ...

成本下降促使更多企业能够负担得起私有化部署大模型，从而推动应用软件支 出的增加。同时，这也促使软件公司的商业模式发生变化。传统的软件公司主 要依赖于产品销售，而随着大模型的普及，它们将逐渐转向订阅制 SaaS 模式。 这种转变在美国已经基本完成，但中国的软件公司进展相对较慢。然而，由于 大模型带来的便利和成本优势，中国的软件公司也将加速向 SaaS 模式转型。未 来，应用软件将不仅仅是提供软件服务，而是通过不断迭代更新的大模型来提 供服务。这种机器学习模型即服务（MLaaS）的商业模式将逐渐被企业用户接受， 因为它能够更频繁地更新并满足新的业务需求。 再谈 ERP：用友和金蝶 20250213 摘要 Q&A Deepseek 技术的推出对软件股市场产生了哪些具体影响？ Deepseek 技术的推出显著降低了企业部署大模型的成本，这对软件股市场产生 了积极影响。过去，企业购买大模型需要花费至少 500 万甚至上千万元，并且 还需自行配置算力。然而，Deepseek 技术使得整个部署成本迅速下降到 50 万 元左右，这其中包括算力。以 37B 蒸馏版为例，只需两台 4,090 服务器即可满 足需求，总成本约为 1 ...

ab 12 February 2025 Global Research China Semiconductors Initial implications of DeepSeek and China's AI progress Three major implications of DeepSeek for China's tech supply chain Mainly stimulated by DeepSeek and improved investor sentiment, the China semi stock index has risen 7.5% after Chinese New Year, outperforming the HS300/SOX indexes by 5.3ppt/2.8ppts. We think DeepSeek has shown real AI computing innovation cost efficiently, and we believe more AI propagation is positive for AI computing spending ...

We placed BYD on Positive Catalyst Watch last week (see here) in anticipation of competitive product launches at its technology day yesterday (Feb 10) accelerating the adoption of L2+ autonomous driving (AD) in China. Indeed, BYD unveiled its latest city-level and highway NOA (navigation on autopilot) solution, or 'BYD God's Eye system', at the event. Chairman/ Founder Mr. Wang Chuanfu announced that 21 BYD models will be equipped with the latest 'God's Eye' solution, covering all models priced above Rmb100 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 10 Feb 2025 15:38:42 ET │ 19 pages Taiwan Electronics & Semiconductors Taiwan technology sector monthly tracking – High-end applications support a good start of the year CITI'S TAKE Based on Taiwanese technology companies' reported Jan sales, we note that advanced applications such as AI lead better YoY momentum at the beginning of the year. Server players Jan sales were tracking ahead (-11% MoM/+81% YoY). Wiwynn and Accton both delivered better-than-seasonality monthly sales due to robu ...

10 February 2025 U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment U.S. Semiconductors - Deconstructing 2024 Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 212 756 4403 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 212 969 1458 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes +1 212 969 1518 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com On the surface, 2024 was a solid upturn for the semiconductor industry, with total sales rising 19% YoY following an 8% decline in 2023. Growth was however dominated by memory (which rose 79% YoY following 2023 ...

Summary of Key Points from the FX Outlook Presentation Industry Overview - The document pertains to the **Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy** industry, specifically focusing on the outlook for various currencies against the US dollar. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Near-term USD Outlook**: The USD is expected to remain bullish in the near term, with a significant probability (approximately 70%) of a 10% tariff rate being priced in, which should support the dollar [5][6][12] 2. **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs are anticipated to be a key driver for USD strength, although their long-term effectiveness is questioned due to potential delays and uncertainties surrounding their implementation [8][14] 3. **Currency Forecasts**: - EUR/USD is projected to reach 0.99 in Q1 2025 - USD/JPY is expected to be 148 by Q4 2025 - AUD/USD is forecasted at 0.65 in Q2 2025 - USD/CAD is anticipated to be 1.45 in Q2 2025 [4][62] 4. **Long-term Risks**: Potential long-term bearish drivers for the USD include geopolitical factors such as a cease-fire in the Russia/Ukraine conflict and shifts in US growth relative to the rest of the world [4][12] 5. **JPY Dynamics**: The Japanese yen is highlighted as a currency to be overweight on crosses, with expectations of a gradual recovery due to rising policy rates in Japan relative to the rest of the world [10][23] 6. **GBP Weakness**: The British pound is facing downside risks due to a dovish Bank of England and weak growth indicators, with the EUR/GBP pair returning to fair value [24][26] 7. **CHF Sensitivity**: The trajectory of EUR/CHF is expected to be influenced by European tariff narratives, with the Swiss economy vulnerable to trade wars [29][30] 8. **NOK and SEK Outlook**: The Norwegian krone is supported by favorable terms of trade and domestic growth, while the Swedish krona is seen as vulnerable against the USD but not as much against the EUR [32][36] 9. **AUD and NZD Performance**: The Australian dollar's upside is capped despite a reduction in acute shock risks, while the New Zealand dollar faces ongoing rate cuts that may restrain any tariff relief [38][43] 10. **CAD Concerns**: The Canadian dollar is downgraded due to soft domestic growth and lingering tariff threats, with expectations of a significant negative shock if tariffs are fully implemented [48][50] Additional Important Insights - **Market Volatility**: The document notes that the FX market has experienced volatility due to tariff announcements and geopolitical tensions, impacting various currencies differently [43][50] - **Hedging Strategies**: Recommendations include hedging against potential market drawdowns through specific currency options and risk reversals [51][56] - **Global Carry Strategies**: There has been a slight rebound in global carry strategies, particularly in emerging markets, indicating a shift in investment focus [57][59] This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the FX Outlook Presentation, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations within the foreign exchange market.

| Price (07 Feb 25 15:00) | Rmb69.000 | | --- | --- | | Target price | Rmb70.000 | | Expected share price | 1.4% | | return | | | Expected dividend yield | 0.7% | | Expected total return | 2.1% | | Market Cap | Rmb185,765M | | | US$25,487M | Jamie WangAC +852-2501-2772 jamie.ck.wang@citi.com Flash | 09 Feb 2025 18:12:22 ET │ 12 pages Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) NEV Electric Controller and E-axle System Market Shares Both Improved in 2024 CITI'S TAKE According to NE Times' data released on 7 Feb ...