更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 手调研织 广发策略 本轮港股行情特征与压力测算 20250217 摘要 要 要 港股本轮上涨由科技主题驱动，如 Deepseek 和机器人等，领涨板與包括日 人民网 大 网 所 经 发 作 ： 产生边际正面影响。 - & 调研 O&A _被击号消降的表现如何？有哪些主要驱动因素了, a ki 海外 投行 所求 & M M #870 _ shui R 放 播的表现如何？有哪些主要驱动图索了, a ki 海外 投行 所求 & M M = 870 英 = 老中国资产目 = B 过去一周,港股市场表现异常活跃,整个市场的焦虑集中在港股的迅速上涨。 这一轮中国资产自1月中旬见底后,春节以来进入加速阶段,并且相对于 A 股 表现出独立行情。主要驱动因素包括科技主题的躁动,如 Deepseek 和机器人等 带来的影响。具体来看,领涨板块包括日常消费零售（如阿里健康）、汽车、 硬件设备(如小米、联想)、科学消费(如阿里、京东)和半导体。此外,汇 率冲击修复也是一个重要因素。人民币贬值对港股盈利预测有负面影响,但随 t报数据加V：shuinu9870 ter to th ...

China Internet Tencent Holdings Ltd Rating Outperform Price Target 700.HK 540.00 HKD 14 February 2025 Robin Zhu +852 2918 5733 robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com +852 2918 5789 charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Min-Joo Kang +852 2123 2644 minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Charlie Peng +81 3 6777 6993 charlie.peng@bernsteinsg.com Tencent: Act III, scene 2 - the case for a strong 2025 Irons in the fire. Tencent remains one of our top picks in the sector, measured both on near- term earnings trends, and on medium term growth runwa ...

各位投资者大家晚上好我是国信证券研究所的王剑很高兴今天我们又在线上相会来到我们的这一期的国信总量半月场那么我们这次是春节复工之后的第一期然后在过去的这个一周半的时间里面大家也都关注到了市场在非常热烈的讨论AI等相关一些热门话题 那么今天我们总量这边也邀请到了相关的同事围绕我们这段时间这些热门的科技相关的话题进行一些交流此外呢还有我们就是一些金融还有雇收宏观等方面的一些投资观点也给大家做一个统一的汇报那么我们今天的第一位发言的嘉宾是 我们的海外分析师王雄恒老师他就给大家来做一个对科技周期的一个百年的一个回顾那么我们先有请王老师给大家做一个介绍有请好的谢谢王剑总然后大家知道从去年开始我们外发了8篇报告然后时间线是从1920年就是真空管吧开始 是近代应该说计算机元梯件的这个开始然后一直到这个第八篇呢是讲到最新的英伟达呀包括像GPU啊像大模型啊讲到这个2025年这个呢时间跨度是一百年他前八篇报告就是有这个六篇呢是按照历史的时间线梳理其中有两篇呢因为觉得 大家一般来用那个库茨涅茨呃呃周期去量一个中周期然后呢去一提到科技周期的时候很多人想到康博周期但是因为它的划分呢极不就它的这种叫呃呃叫标准差极大然后我们发现在应用的时候 ...

大家好 欢迎参加华军策略接下来一课系列电话会议春季行情和科技风格能延续吗目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始报名和声明 本次会议为华欣证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华欣证券所有未经华欣证券事先书面许可任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式转发翻版复制发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华经证券书面授权的任何机构个人或其运营的媒体平台接收翻版复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容不得制作会议纪要对外发送擅自制作会议纪要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有违者必究 好的各位投资人大家晚上好我是华经侦查研究所策略首席分析师邓俊那又到了我们每周聚焦一刻的电话会的时间目前来讲呢春季行情如火如荼的进行当中这个呢跟我们之前的预期是比较相符的我们在上周的时候就说过春季行情应该大概率是进入了主升的这个阶段那当前的行情表现还是相对比较强的 那在比较强的这个行情之后很多投资者自然会有两个问题第一个呢就是目前的这个春季行情还能够持续多久能够涨多高是不是后续可能会有一定的风险甚至这个春季行情是不是过一两周就要结束了那这个 ...

February 13, 2025 10:58 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America CoTD: Still Following the Money Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company events, or just ones that we find interesting. Exhibit 1: We view the YoY change in US M2 Money Supply (+12mo) as the top leading indicator for Industrial Orders – the relationship signals further order strength into YE'25 Source: Morgan Stanley Research, FactSet As discussed in our Q3'24 Attrac ...

13 Feb 2025 17:15:14 ET │ 24 pages A c t i o n | China Semiconductors Chinese semiconductor foundry - Further GM improvement is key CITI'S TAKE Both SMIC and Hua Hong reported their 4Q24 results. Due to recouping domestic demand, there is 32%/18% YoY revenue growth respectively. Thanks to continuous technology migration, SMIC's GM recovery in 4Q24 is more substantial reaching 22.6% (vs 20.5%/16.4% in 3Q24/4Q23) while Hua Hong's 11.4% GM is lackluster compared to 3Q24's 12.2%. During the earnings call, SMIC ...

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 12 February 2025 Cisco F2Q25 (Jan-end) Review: Cyclical Recovery Momentum Confirmed in Results/ Outlook; Impact of Key Investor Concerns Lower Than Feared; Reiterate OW Cisco's F2Q25 (Jan-end) results ticked many of the boxes, including: 1) Reinforcing the improvement in the demand cycle with revenue and order trends from all customer verticals improving on an underlying basis; 2) Revenue upsides for Core Networking driving greater confidence in upsides for FY25 ...

13 February 2025 | 9:55PM HKT China Metals & Mining Lithium - limited net supply improvement, maintain Sell on Tianqi-H/A and Ganfeng-A The fundamentals of the lithium market have improved on both demand and supply side, as supply responded to the poor pricing, while demand from China EV and ESS accelerated. Nevertheless, the path of supply response on net bases (with a focus on Chinese producer projects in this report) is disappointing in our view - despite the deep cut in both output and capacity of ongoi ...

ab 13 February 2025 Global Research Key Call: Tencent Holdings Solid fundamentals, with AI re-rating potential Adding Tencent to APAC Key Call list We add Tencent to the APAC Key Call list. Tencent's share price has underperformed YTD (+6% vs. KWEB at +17%). We have discussed three potential surprises for Tencent in 2025 (note), including better-than-expected game performance, as well as upside potential in Mini Shop e-commerce and AI, which the Street may be under-appreciating. While we think China Militar ...

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 12 February 2025 Western Digital Analyst Day Takeaways: Solid LT Growth Opportunities Driven By Capacity-Optimized HDD Cloud/AI Demand And Strong Technology/Manufacturing Scale Yesterday, we attended WDC's Investor Day held in New York and came away with the view that the team is well positioned to deliver solid long-term revenue growth with a stable margin profile as cloud/hyperscalers continue to drive strong exabyte HDD storage demand on continued cloud data ...