12 February 2025 | 6:59AM HKT China Data Centers AI investments with efficiency to drive sustainable IDC development and valuation re-rating; Buy VNET/GDS The emergence of DeepSeek is challenging the traditional assumptions of AI training costs, and is enabling faster growth of AI inference demand. More importantly, this development along with other recent AI model launches (e.g. ByteDance Doubao 1.5 Pro, Moonshot Kimi k1.5, Alibaba Qwen2.5, S1 developed by a team led by Professor Li Fei-Fei at Stanford Uni ...

Equity Research China Technology 10 February 2025 China Technology CBO - China Brief Overnight - 2/10/2025 China vows measures to boost consumption and foreign investment, and solve structural issues in industries; Shanghai offers RMB 500mn consumption vouchers from March to June; BYD introduces three new DiPilot ADAS systems, and will integrate DeepSeek R1 into its smart vehicles. Our daily product rounds up key stories from the Chinese language media overnight, focusing on developments in the technology s ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 10 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Renewables NDRC's push on 100% RE power market sales drives mixed implications: Negative for ESS; Neutral for off- shore wind; Positive for RE ...

January 28, 2025 01:38 PM GMT Embodied AI | North America Humanoid Disruptors: Unitree - Humanoids Starting at $16K China continues to make impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefitting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of national government support. We profile Unitree, an emerging developer of cost-effective AI robots. We continue to believe that new players capable of developing cost-effective humanoid/AI robotics solutions will pla ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific trades discussed Core Insights - The report identifies five consensus Trump trades that have shown reversal patterns similar to those during his first presidency, indicating potential market shifts [4] - It highlights that the macroeconomic backdrop is affecting equity markets differently, with a focus on the implications of a potential trade war [4][22] - The report discusses the impact of the DeepSeek effect on tech stocks, suggesting that markets may be past peak valuations and emphasizing the need for revenue generation [4][65] - It notes the significance of European elections and their potential impact on markets, particularly in light of Trump-related uncertainties [4][83] - The report addresses inflation, indicating that recent yield increases are more related to term premiums rather than inflation expectations, which may have an indirect impact on markets [4][110] Summary by Sections Five Consensus Trump Trades - The report outlines five key trades influenced by Trump, noting that these trades have reversed during his presidency [4][8] - It emphasizes the macro backdrop's varying effects on different markets, questioning whether a trade war could alter this dynamic [4][22] - The report discusses the DeepSeek effect, indicating that tech stocks may be experiencing a shift in valuation dynamics [4][50] Macro Backdrop - The report states that US sensitivity to local macro-driven assets is at its lowest since 2007, suggesting a potential shift in market behavior [24] - It highlights that European and Canadian markets may be more vulnerable to trade shocks due to lower profit margins compared to the US [36] Tech Stocks and the DeepSeek Effect - The report notes that the DeepSeek narrative has created significant market reactions, particularly affecting utilities and semiconductor stocks [52][55] - It discusses the resilience of tech stocks outside of AI, while also highlighting the unequal value distribution across the tech industry [61] European Elections and Markets - The report indicates that German elections may layer additional uncertainty on European markets, but suggests that risk assets are not overly priced [83][85] - It mentions that European stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 recently, driven by specific sector dynamics and low domestic exposure [83][84] Inflation – The Indirect Impact - The report discusses how inflation expectations are above targets but manageable, with recent yield increases attributed to recovering term premiums rather than inflation fears [102][110] - It highlights that the correlation between stock and bond markets has shifted, with positive correlations observed in Europe [112]

最后两套投权时间会相对比较晚,其实已经在12月本年底的一个时间做投权了。其他三套的话,第二次年的长廊登岗还是有一定贡献的。 2014年整个聚纸职榜进增长大概只有104万吨民意产能到年级大概是在1276万吨增长的增速大概是2.5%期片榜这边的话 进增比较少全年都只有6万吨另外还要淘汰5万吨的一个光源四的期片榜 所以二次元的基本法增长基本上其实可以忽略不计的所以我们总的二次元的敌人长测它的硬产能增长就只有在0.5万吨年底的民意产能就是5273产能的增速刚好是2点 那二五年这边的话 我们目前了解到的投产的这些专制里面 一个有金凤银的一个中股 一期跟二期其中一期的话是25万吨 那么我们了解到的话就是本周末 下周初他可能就要做投产了 第二套的话是同昆安徽的三十万吨这套装置我们了解到的投放时间大概是四到五月份第三套的话就是同昆的福建恒海项目它的投放时间大概是在五六月份同样也是三十万吨 另外就是我们测试工厂汇隆它也配套一个15万吨的序组当然它实际上这边可能就只配套两万吨汇双就比较少时间是在三季度另外就是重分的新疆的第二场项目 三十万尊可能大概会放在三季度最后的话就是年底有可能会释放的新凤明总统的第二套四十万尊以及圣母赐养的 ...

高盛闭门电话会：关税、汇率、通胀、AI，高盛把脉中国经济四大命门！ 摘要 Q&A 高盛对中国关税的基本假设是什么？ 高盛认为特朗普政府对中国的关税将进一步上调，预计在现有 10%的基础上再 增加 10%，使得总体有效税率上升 20 个百分点。高盛还预测，取消中国的永久 正常贸易关系（PNTR）地位的可能性为 35%，这将进一步提高关税。此外，高 盛还考虑了其他国家和地区的关税风险，例如对欧盟汽车征收 60 亿美元级别的 关税，以及对全球战略性重要产品征收 6,000 亿美元级别的关税。 高盛如何量化这些关税变化对美国经济的影响？ 高盛通过计算有效税率来量化这些变化。根据最新假设，美国有效税率将增加 4.7 个百分点，相比 11 月份预测时更为严重。这一增长主要是由于最近贸易战 升级所致。高盛因此上调了美国通胀预测，预计核心 PCE 会受到一定压力。在 不同情景下，美国有效税率可能进一步提高，但目前基本假设是 2025 年红色板 • 高盛预测美国有效税率因贸易战升级将增加 4.7 个百分点，上调美国通胀 预期，关注对欧盟汽车及全球战略产品征收关税的风险。 • 中国一月 CPI 受春节因素推动上升至 0.5%，P ...

摘要 问答 最近的关税新闻对经济前景和预测有何影响？ 最近的关税消息极大地影响了我们的经济前景。特朗普总统宣布对所有钢铁和 铝进口征收 25% 的关税，立即生效，并对中国出口商品征收额外 10% 的关税。 中国对美国约 200 亿美元的出口产品征收关税，而美国征收关税的中国进口商 品价值为 4450 亿美元。我们预计这些关税和进一步征收关税的威胁将成为贸 易讨论中反复出现的话题。特朗普总统的行政命令名为"美国优先贸易政策"， 要求联邦机构审查贸易逆差，特别是针对加拿大、墨西哥和中国，报告应于 4 月 1 日前提交。这符合我们对新关税将从 2024 年第三季度到 2026 年第二季 度实施的预期。鉴于这些发展，我们将新关税纳入了我们的预测中。我们假设， 随着时间的推移，美国将对从中国进口的 75% 的商品征收额外的 60% 关税， 类似于 2018-2019 年期间根据《贸易法》第 301 条实施的程序。因此，我们 调整了通胀预测：将 2025 年通胀率上调十分之一，将 2026 年通胀率下调相 同幅度。此外，由于这些影响，我们下调了 GDP 增长预测，但将预期的首次降 息时间提前至今年 6 月，预计今年总共降 ...

摘要 Q&A 【辜朝明最新分享】中国经济，投资和宏观经济（日期：202502） What is your current assessment of the global economy and financial markets in 2025? The global economy and financial markets are currently navigating the aftermath of extensive quantitative easing measures implemented by numerous countries, especially following the 2008 financial crisis. Despite significant liquidity injections, central banks failed to meet their inflation targets, contradicting traditional economic theories about money supply and price levels. This ...

摘要 • US hyperscalers initially provide conservative capex guidance, often revised upwards based on supplier data. In August 2024, Asian tech analysts projected higher capex estimates compared to their US counterparts, highlighting a divergence in initial projections that eventually converge. • Major hyperscalers' upward revision of capex forecasts positively impacts the supply chain, exceeding initial expectations for 2024. This positive outlook extends to GPU demand and broader data center infrastructure i ...