FICC Research Economics 7 February 2025 Global Economics Weekly The art of rapid deal-making Last-minute negotiations averted tariffs on Mexico and Canada for now, showing a still-transactional Trump. But the trade war with China has begun and Trump's attention is expanding to the EU and geopolitical deals. Meanwhile, payrolls indicate a robust US labour market ahead of next week's CPI. Global Synthesis The art of rapid deal-making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Feb 2025 02:47:34 ET │ 26 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Macro Themes for the Tariff-Fatigued (And One That Is Not) CITI'S TAKE There is a lot going on outside of the threat of tariffs for various countries. A Ukraine peace deal could be discussed soon. We sell EURPLN. National security-driven tariffs may be put on various industries. We go long COMEX/LME copper basis. US banks' capital requirements may be eased. We counsel patience for US steepeners. The BoE is s ...

Summary of Lenovo's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lenovo Group Limited - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware Key Points Smartphone Shipments - Lenovo shipped **14.6 million units** of smartphones in the December quarter, representing a **-2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** change but a **+11% year-over-year (y/y)** increase [1][2] - This performance exceeded market expectations by **2.4%** and surpassed street estimates by **3.9%** [1] - Growth regions include: - **EMEA**: Shipments increased by **16% q/q** to approximately **2.7 million units** [1] - **India**: Shipments grew by **7% q/q** to around **2.8 million units** [1] Financial Outlook - Analysts express confidence that Lenovo's upcoming December quarter report, due on **February 20**, will exceed expectations based on current performance trends [2] - Lenovo is well-positioned to benefit from: - A rising enterprise PC refresh cycle - Increasing AI PC penetration rates - Growth in AI server sales [2] Stock Performance and Valuation - **Current Stock Price**: HK$11.50 (as of February 6, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$13.80, indicating a **20% upside potential** [4] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately **US$17.732 billion** [4] - **Revenue Projections**: - FY 2025: **US$67.777 million** - FY 2026: **US$72.533 million** - FY 2027: **US$80.099 million** [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)** projections: - FY 2025: **US$0.10** - FY 2026: **US$0.13** - FY 2027: **US$0.15** [4] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected recovery in smartphone and data center segments - Stronger demand recovery for PCs in China - Improved cost savings and product mix [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected recovery in smartphone and data center segments - Weaker demand recovery for PCs in China - Deterioration in cost savings and product mix [11] Analyst Ratings - Lenovo is rated as **Overweight** by Morgan Stanley, indicating a positive outlook compared to its industry peers [4][27] Additional Information - Lenovo is currently in the process of acquiring **Infinidat Ltd.**, with Morgan Stanley acting as the financial advisor [7] - The report includes various disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest and investment banking relationships [5][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Lenovo's conference call, highlighting its performance, financial outlook, and market positioning within the technology hardware sector.

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10 February 2025 U.S. Machinery Electrical Infrastructure: AI Data Center Investment.... How Can You Tell When Enough is Enough? Chad Dillard +1 212 969 1017 chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA +1 212 823 3907 miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Alasdair Leslie +44 20 7762 4952 alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Luke Rochussen, CFA, CA +44 207 170 5110 luke.rochussen@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song +1 212 969 1070 steve.song@bernsteinsg.com The DeepSeek news pulled forward the possibility o ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 11 February 2025 TSMC Advanced packaging and CoWoS updates Overweight 2330.TW, 2330 TT Price (10 Feb 25):NT$1105.0 Price Target (Dec-25):NT$1500.0 Technology and Telecoms Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Robert Hsu (886-2) 2725-9864 robert.hsu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited Lakshya Jain Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 goku ...

USA | Semiconductors Astera Labs Strong AI ASIC Tailwinds, Scorpio Interest High Strong numbers across the board driven by ongoing ASIC ramps with at least two major hyperscalers (likely AMZN/GOOG) and Blackwell likely to kick-in stronger in 2H25 led by new Scorpio P-Series switch. Scorpio family seeing continued design momentum with X-Series in pre-product and family sales on track to be >10% of sales this year and the largest product line over time. Very strong print with growth tied to combination of ong ...

包括我们如何去构建AI主题投资框架和紧急框架包括我们如何去选择一些中长期的维度去构建AI的紧急分级投资图谱这个都是我们在第二部分重点会讨论的问题首先对于市场来看的话我们总体还是维持之前的观点就是二月份还是继续看好春季躁动 然后AI的这个主题配置的话正当时这是我们总体的一个观点是没有变的原因是因为我们整体看到了基本面的数据还是编辑在改善的包括PMI之前也算是也讲过包括我们看到了一些像这个隐秘数据语言是这个向上的这一点的话实际上对于支持流动性是非常有帮助的 那只要有效流动性是活跃的话那整体的这两股这些肯定是有机会的至少是结构性的机会至少是结构性的机会大家从9月24号到现在也是能够感受出来的这边市场出现波折但是成长的这些主线AI的主线是没有改变过的然后结构性机会是不缺乏的不断会涌出的 本次电话会议顶面向国经证券的专业投资机构客户或涉疆客户请共交流研究观点专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点会议内容并不构成对任何人的投资建议未经国经证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁以任何形式向会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改、解读等 尊敬的各位投资者大家好我是国际策略分析师张驰今天和大家一起分享一下我们本周的一些 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call involved discussions about 中银股份 (Zhongyin Co.), focusing on its business direction and operational outlook for 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Business Growth and Financial Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a double-digit growth rate for its overall business in 2025, although specific budget adjustments are still pending [2][3]. - Profit margin improvement is a core focus, with overseas revenue projected to reach between 8 to 9.1 billion [3][16]. - The company is optimizing its customer structure domestically to enhance profitability [3]. Business Segments and Strategic Focus - Key business segments include cooling systems and air suspension, with a strong emphasis on product innovation and management systems [2][3]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships with other manufacturers to enhance product offerings in the robotics sector [5][6]. Project Developments - The company is progressing with a project involving a Swiss mechanical company, focusing on a specific product line to enhance overall project management [4]. - Equipment for the project has been delivered, and debugging is currently underway [4]. Market Dynamics and Industry Trends - The company is observing a shift in the air suspension market, with expectations that the cost of hardware will decrease as domestic production increases [10]. - The company believes that vehicles priced around 200,000 can be equipped with air suspension systems, indicating a growing market potential [10][11]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with smaller participants playing a supportive role [11]. Technological Innovations - The company is exploring two technological paths for its products: CVC and magnetic flow, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and performance [12][13]. - The company is also considering the integration of shock absorbers with air suspension systems, enhancing product versatility [14]. International Operations and Challenges - The company is adapting to international market conditions, with a focus on local production to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and trade policies [17][20]. - The company has noted that while domestic profit margins are strong, achieving similar levels overseas remains challenging due to lower industry averages [17][19]. Future Projections - The company expects a gradual increase in overseas revenue, with a projected growth rate of around 2% for 2025 compared to 2020 [16]. - The company is preparing for potential impacts from trade policies but remains optimistic about maintaining its competitive edge through local production strategies [20][21]. Additional Important Information - The company is committed to supporting its key projects financially, ensuring that reasonable demands are met without budget constraints [8]. - The management is actively engaging with clients to understand market needs and adjust strategies accordingly [15]. - The call concluded with an invitation for investors to reach out for further updates on company progress and data [25].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the electricity sector in 2025, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investment in green electricity operators, particularly those with low valuations and strong market positions [3][7]. Core Insights - The electricity sector is facing a relatively low heat in 2025 due to concerns over falling trading prices, but there are opportunities driven by supportive policies for renewable energy [3]. - The new pricing policy for renewable energy requires all new energy electricity to enter market trading, which is expected to stabilize revenue expectations and boost investor confidence [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green electricity consumption in achieving energy consumption targets, with policies encouraging high-energy-consuming enterprises to increase their use of green electricity [6]. - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to see a recovery in earnings per share (EPS) in the second half of the year, with a focus on inventory reduction in the first half [10][11]. - Wind power installations are projected to reach 120-130 GW in 2025, with significant growth expected in offshore wind projects [23][27]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Overview - The electricity sector is experiencing a downturn in trading prices, but supportive policies for green electricity are expected to create investment opportunities [3][5]. - The new pricing policy for renewable energy aims to stabilize revenue expectations and enhance investment confidence [5]. Green Electricity Consumption - Domestic policies are pushing for increased green electricity consumption to meet energy consumption targets, with specific measures to support high-energy-consuming industries [6]. Photovoltaic Industry - The PV industry is expected to focus on inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, with a recovery in EPS anticipated in the latter half [10][11]. - The report highlights the impact of European component price increases and domestic bidding processes on the industry [10]. Wind Power Sector - Wind power installations are projected to reach 120-130 GW in 2025, with a significant portion coming from onshore projects [23]. - The offshore wind market is expected to see substantial growth, with numerous projects in the pipeline [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued green electricity operators, particularly those with a strong presence in wind energy [7]. - Specific companies such as Dongfang Cable, Goldwind Technology, and Yunda Express are highlighted for their potential in the wind power sector [25][26].