Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a key focus of global conservation efforts, with the "30x30" initiative aiming to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030 [3][8] - A predictive machine learning model was developed to forecast the impact of MPA expansions on global fishing effort, indicating that fishing effort would decrease inside MPAs and also outside them, leading to a global redistribution of fishing effort [3][19][24] - The magnitude of the predicted decrease in fishing effort is influenced by the placement of MPAs in relation to existing fishing activities [3][22] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the significance of MPAs in conservation and the expected increase in fully protected MPAs from less than 3% currently to a target of 30% by 2030 [8][9] - It highlights the potential economic impacts of MPAs on fishing efforts and biodiversity [9][10] Methodology - A global dataset of fishing effort was compiled using satellite-based monitoring data from 2016 to 2021, with a focus on predicting future fishing effort under various MPA expansion scenarios [13][14] - The model incorporates 42 features, including environmental, geographic, and economic factors, to predict fishing effort [13][14] Results - The model predicts that total global fishing effort will be lower under MPA expansion scenarios compared to a business-as-usual scenario, with reductions ranging from -3% to -38% depending on the MPA network [19][22] - The overlap of proposed MPAs with current fishing activity is a critical factor in determining the extent of fishing effort reduction [22][26] - Fishing effort is expected to decrease both inside and outside MPAs, challenging the conventional wisdom of "fishing-the-line" [23][24] Discussion - The findings suggest that the placement of MPAs in areas with high fishing activity will yield the most significant reductions in fishing effort [26][45] - The report emphasizes the need for careful consideration of fisher responses to MPA expansions to balance conservation goals with the livelihoods of fishing communities [45][46]

Public Disclosure Authorized CABO VERDE CIRCULAR ECONOMY DIAGNOSTIC Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views ...

Industry Overview - Digital health technologies, including digital applications, data, and information systems, are transforming healthcare by improving patient experience, operational efficiency, and creating new business models [1] - Regulatory sandboxes are important tools for promoting innovation in highly regulated sectors like digital health, allowing innovators to test new products and services in controlled environments [4] - The use of regulatory sandboxes in digital health is growing globally, with benefits for innovators, patients, governments, and regulators [6] Benefits of Regulatory Sandboxes - Innovators gain access to funding, markets, and regulatory guidance, reducing risks and increasing confidence in their products [8] - Patients benefit from early access to innovative, regulated products at potentially lower costs, with increased transparency and trust [8] - Governments and regulators can better understand the risks and benefits of new technologies, improve regulations, and promote innovation [8] Key Characteristics of Regulatory Sandboxes - Regulatory sandboxes are time-bound, with specific focus areas and regulatory waivers within legal limits [10] - They aim to develop evidence on the effects of innovations and provide insights into future regulation [10] - The AAA model of regulation (Advisory, Adaptive, Anticipatory) is used to characterize different objectives of regulatory sandboxes [12] Global Implementation of Regulatory Sandboxes - The UK has been a pioneer in using regulatory sandboxes across multiple sectors, including healthcare [21] - Singapore ran a regulatory sandbox for telemedicine and mobile medicine from 2018 to 2021 [21] - Malaysia's National Technology and Innovation Sandbox has supported 26% of approved applications in the medical and healthcare sectors [21] - India's National Digital Health Mission Sandbox helps integrate innovations into the national digital health ecosystem [21] Steps to Create a Regulatory Sandbox - Define the leadership model, typically involving the Ministry of Health and other relevant ministries [27] - Identify the problems to be addressed and the relevant emerging technologies [30] - Conduct regulatory mapping to identify applicable laws, regulations, norms, and standards [31] - Identify entities involved in monitoring and evaluating the sandbox, including data protection agencies and health regulators [32] - Build capacity and provide training for all entities involved in the sandbox [38] - Establish working groups to coordinate the design, implementation, and monitoring of the sandbox [40] - Define a risk model to identify possible effects and establish contingency plans [41] - Set eligibility and selection criteria for innovators, focusing on novelty, development stage, and regulatory interest [42] - Design the sandbox with specific objectives, including duration, admission windows, and exit options [45] - Publish plans for public consultation before launching the sandbox [52] - Launch and implement the sandbox, allowing innovators to submit applications [53] - Monitor, evaluate, and learn from the sandbox, publishing exit and final reports [58] Key Success Factors and Challenges - Regulatory sandboxes require significant resources, ranging from $25,000 to $1 million [68] - A well-functioning sandbox needs to meet existing market demand and have a mature digital health market [70] - Challenges include predicting potential risks, resource intensity, cross-sectoral innovations, and limited evidence of effectiveness [77] Design Elements of Regulatory Sandboxes - Eligibility: Defines who can participate in the sandbox [47] - Governance: Defines the internal operating structure and roles [47] - Timing: Includes duration of admission windows and testing periods [47] - Test restrictions: Limits the scope, scale, and conduct of the sandbox test [47] - Exit options: Includes individual test outcomes and program-level KPIs [47]

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the education sector, specifically primary education in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), analyzing the relationship between teaching quality and student learning outcomes [8][12] - The study leverages data from the World Bank's Global Education Policy Dashboard (GEPD), which covers 13 education systems across LMICs, including countries like Ethiopia, Pakistan, Peru, and Sierra Leone [33][34] - The report highlights the persistent learning crisis in LMICs, with 57% of children in these countries unable to read and understand a simple text by age 10, and even higher rates in Sub-Saharan Africa (86%) [12][13] Key Findings on Teaching and Learning - Teacher pedagogical skills, as measured by the Teach Primary tool, are positively correlated with student learning outcomes, particularly in literacy [8][21] - Teachers with better content knowledge, especially in mathematics, significantly improve student performance, with a 1-standard-deviation increase in teacher content knowledge leading to a 0.2 standard deviation increase in student learning [24][25] - Teaching practices that foster student engagement, such as play-based and child-centered approaches, are highly predictive of better literacy outcomes [8][62] Teacher Support and Quality - Teachers in LMICs often lack adequate support, with only 33% of teachers having a bachelor's degree and 23% holding a master's degree [39] - Teacher absence rates are high, with students receiving only about half of the scheduled teaching time due to teacher absenteeism, significantly impacting learning outcomes [28] - Effective teacher support systems, such as practical training, mentoring, and feedback, are crucial for improving pedagogical practices and student learning [14][71] Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the importance of structured pedagogy and practical teacher training programs to improve teaching quality and student learning outcomes [21][71] - Instructional leadership, including classroom observations and feedback, is critical for identifying and addressing teaching challenges, yet only 58% of teachers report discussing observation results and 54% receive feedback [73] - Policies should focus on improving teacher recruitment standards, providing in-service training, and ensuring that teachers have access to necessary resources and support [75][76] Data and Methodology - The GEPD uses a combination of school surveys, teacher assessments, and classroom observations to provide a holistic view of the education system [29][30] - The study employs machine learning models, including Conditional Inference Forest (CIF) and Random Forest (RF), to identify key variables predictive of student learning outcomes [85][87] - The PLAY tool, developed to measure student engagement in learning, was applied in three countries (Ethiopia, Peru, and Sierra Leone) to assess the impact of playful learning practices on student outcomes [63][64]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Social registries are fundamental tools for social protection, enabling efficient resource targeting and access to services for vulnerable populations [14] - Over the past two decades, social registries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have significantly expanded in coverage, interoperability, and usage, with some countries like Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica achieving over 80% coverage [15] - Social registries play a critical role in the delivery chain of social protection programs, including identifying eligible populations, tracking social investments, and responding to emergencies [16][17] - Despite advancements, LAC social registries face challenges such as strengthening legal frameworks, improving data quality, and enhancing interoperability [18] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Social registries serve as inclusion systems, allowing citizens to access social programs and consolidating household data for public policy decision-making [14] - The coverage of social registries has grown significantly, with some countries reaching over 80% coverage [15] - Social registries are increasingly used beyond cash transfers, supporting programs in education, health, and economic inclusion [16][17] - Challenges include legal and institutional strengthening, data quality improvement, and enhancing interoperability [18] Introduction - The World Bank has been working to strengthen social registries in LAC, aiming to reduce knowledge gaps and generate recommendations for improving social policies [20] - The technical note draws on previous World Bank publications and surveys conducted with officials from 17 countries [21][22] Role of Social Registries in Social Policy - Social registries are essential for identifying individuals in poverty and vulnerability, enabling their participation in social protection programs [27] - They support the dissemination, admission, and registration of households, facilitating the evaluation of socioeconomic conditions [35] - Social registries aim to reduce operational complexity by consolidating data, leading to cost and time savings [36] - Information is the primary input and output of social registries, with data collected through surveys, administrative records, and digital interfaces [37][38] Evolution of Social Registries in LAC - Social registries in LAC have evolved over the past four decades, with significant growth in the last two decades [48][49] - Countries like Colombia have achieved 100% population coverage through innovations in interoperability and data exchange [51] - The use of social registries has expanded beyond cash transfers to include education, health, and subnational government programs [63] Role of Social Registries During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Social registries played a crucial role during the COVID-19 pandemic, enabling rapid responses to citizen needs [68] - Countries implemented innovations such as cross-referencing with new data sources and using machine learning for household classification [72] - Interoperability with administrative data was a key strategy for expanding social registries during the pandemic [73] Social Registries in LAC Today - Social registries are assessed based on five dimensions: institutional arrangements, data collection and updating, socioeconomic classification, information systems, and performance measures [80][81] - Institutional arrangements vary by country, with most registries managed by ministries of social development or planning [86][87] - Data collection methods are evolving towards hybrid models, combining self-declaration with administrative data [96][97] - Interoperability is a key focus, with countries like Chile and Brazil leading in data exchange and integration [162][163] Challenges and Recommendations for LAC Social Registries - Strengthening legal frameworks and institutional support is crucial for the sustainability of social registries [194] - Efficient and sustainable mechanisms for data updating are needed to ensure accurate targeting of social programs [197] - Interoperability with other systems, such as disaster risk management, can enhance the effectiveness of social registries [202][203] - Expanding coverage in high-poverty areas and improving communication with citizens are essential for the future of social registries [205][206] References - The report references various studies and publications from the World Bank and other institutions, providing a comprehensive background on social registries in LAC [211][212]

Industry Overview - The Somali private sector accounts for an estimated 95% of total jobs created, with private businesses providing almost all products and services, including traditionally state-delivered services like energy, ICT connectivity, and water [19] - The manufacturing sector represents only 15% of established businesses, generating about 0.8% of total jobs, and is less productive compared to other sectors [19] - Livestock, fishery, and agricultural goods dominate the productive sector, accounting for 26% of employment and 73% of exports, but these sectors are underdeveloped and vulnerable to climate shocks [19][106] Private Sector Challenges - The private sector is concentrated in nontradable sectors, with 69% of rural employment and over 90% of urban employment in retail, petty trading, and other nontradable services [19] - A few large conglomerates dominate key sectors such as finance, ICT, transportation, tourism, energy, real estate, and commerce, leveraging their influence to distort and capture markets [20] - Most firms are small, informal, and necessity-driven, with SMEs accounting for only 6% of established businesses and 2.4% of total employment, leading to low productivity and job generation [21] Enabling Sectors - Access to reliable electricity is low and inequitable, with Somalia ranking in the upper 5% globally for power cost and 15% for power expenditure as a share of gross national income per household [28] - The financial sector has grown significantly, with total assets and customer deposits at commercial banks more than quadrupling between 2018 and 2023, but access to finance for MSMEs remains a key challenge [31][33] - Digital connectivity has improved, with mobile network services becoming more affordable, but broadband penetration and use of bandwidth remain low compared to regional peers [36] Recommendations - Establish legitimate, effective, and equitable formal institutional and regulatory frameworks to enable economic transformation and increase efficiency-seeking FDI [43] - Promote private participation in key enabling sectors such as energy, transport, and education, and improve public stewardship to address service delivery gaps [45] - Improve growth and productivity of selected value chains like livestock, crops, and fisheries to deliver short- to medium-term inclusive dividends and create jobs [45]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the importance of transitioning to a circular economy (CE) in Türkiye, which presents both challenges and opportunities for industries [18][19][20] Core Report Insights - The transition to a circular economy in Türkiye is driven by both environmental sustainability goals and the need to align with the EU's tightening environmental policies, particularly under the EU-Türkiye Customs Union [19][20] - Türkiye's material demand is expected to increase despite improvements in material intensity, with non-metallic minerals dominating the material mix [35][36] - Circular economy policies can support Türkiye's climate mitigation objectives, potentially reducing CO2 emissions by over 7% in 2030 on top of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario [38][39] - A combination of demand-side and supply-side policies is necessary to achieve circular economy targets, with demand-side measures more effective in reducing non-metallic mineral use and supply-side measures better suited for increasing metal ore recycling [43][44] Macroeconomic Impacts of the CE Transition in Türkiye - Türkiye's economy is projected to see an absolute increase in the use of all material inputs, driven by GDP and population growth, with material intensity declining for all commodities except metal ores [36] - The economic dividend of supporting the CE transition can be reaped by addressing Türkiye's existing skills gap, particularly in high-skilled labor [49] - The costs of implementing CE policies are relatively moderate, with real GDP decreasing by about 1.6% in the combined scenario, but this does not account for co-benefits such as reduced air pollution and improved ecosystem services [47] Positioning Turkish Industry in Circular Global Value Chains - Nearly one-fifth of Turkish firms have adopted resource-efficient production technologies, with higher adoption rates in the garments and textiles sectors compared to fabricated metal products and machinery sectors [55] - Two possible CE futures for Türkiye are outlined: a 'light' transition focusing on material efficiency and recycling, and an 'ambitious' transition involving comprehensive product redesign and higher value-added goods [62] - Factors enabling CE readiness include effective traceability, digital monitoring systems, access to recycled inputs, and technological upgrades [66][67] Prioritizing Industries for Building a Competitive Circular Economy in Türkiye - Strong connections between industries are essential for a successful circular economy, with weak links currently observed between high-potential circular industries and their supporting sectors [80][82] - The analysis identifies six priority value chains for Türkiye's CE transition: iron and steel, aluminum, cement, plastics, fertilizers, and chemicals, with 80 core industries and 75 supporting industries identified [84] - Policies for a competitive CE transition include boosting competition in key industries, strengthening primary and manufacturing industries, and fostering collaboration within the tertiary sector [91][93] Next Steps for Türkiye's CE Transition - Türkiye should focus on enhancing the competitiveness of core industries, fostering the growth of upstream and downstream industries, and promoting investments in key industries that support circularity [96][99][100] - Pilot regulations within vital sectors with strong interrelations are recommended, along with broadening the use of network analysis to bolster monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) objectives [106]

Industry Overview - São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is experiencing significant emigration, driven by limited economic and employment prospects, particularly among the younger generation [7] - The country's economy heavily relies on public development aid (APD), making it vulnerable to external funding fluctuations, with GDP growth stagnating in recent years [16] - Poverty remains widespread, with three-quarters of the population at risk of falling or remaining below the poverty line, and significant challenges in human capital, particularly in educational outcomes [16] Migration Trends - Migration from STP is significant and increasing, with Portugal being the primary destination, hosting over half of the diaspora, followed by Angola and Gabon [17] - The introduction of the CPLP mobility agreement in 2022 has facilitated migration to Portugal, reducing legal and administrative barriers for citizens of Portuguese-speaking countries, including STP [17] - Migrants from STP are predominantly young, urban, and moderately more likely to come from higher-income brackets, although vulnerable populations also migrate [17] Economic Impact of Migration - Migration currently brings limited economic benefits to STP due to low and irregular remittances, high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and precarious jobs for migrants abroad [7] - Remittances are a crucial income source for STP households, especially for the elderly, poorer households, and female-headed households, but the volume is relatively low compared to the size of the diaspora [22] - The cost of sending remittances to STP through formal channels is higher than the Sub-Saharan African average, and most remittances are sent informally through third parties [27][28] Social Impact of Migration - Migration can disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional well-being [7] - Vulnerable families often receive low-value and irregular remittances, as migrants are frequently confined to low-wage jobs abroad, limiting financial support and household stability post-migration [39] - The emigration of an adult, especially a parent, requires critical adjustments in family dynamics, often transferring care responsibilities to other family members, which can negatively impact children's development [41] Policy Recommendations - Improve the employability of youth both domestically and abroad to ensure viable economic prospects for those who choose to stay and productive jobs for those who wish to emigrate [46] - Establish labor mobility agreements with key destination countries to align migrant skills with labor market needs [50] - Strengthen migration management systems to better support migrant workers, engage the diaspora, and generate data for policy-making [52] - Reduce barriers to receiving remittances by promoting the development of a digital financial services ecosystem that enhances financial inclusion [54] - Protect and support family members of migrants who remain in the country, particularly focusing on youth and children, through social assistance programs [55]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in clean tech manufacturing across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, driven by EU policies aimed at onshoring clean tech production [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The EU's Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) targets sourcing at least 40% of net-zero technologies domestically by 2030, creating opportunities for Central and Eastern European countries to expand production in key clean tech value chains such as electric vehicle batteries, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, heat pumps, and electrolyzers [3][8] - Poland stands out with the highest export potential and investment requirements in absolute terms, while Bulgaria and Croatia show greater potential relative to their economic size [3][10] - The wind energy value chain offers the most onshoring opportunities, while the electrolyzer value chain presents the fewest [29] Methodology Summary - The analysis uses a five-step framework to identify onshoring potential, including sector filtering, indicator development, composite index creation, export projections, and investment projections [11][12] - Key indicators include demand factors (e.g., EU reliance on non-EU inputs), supply factors (e.g., export competitiveness), and market access ease (e.g., logistics performance) [14][15][16] - A composite Onshoring Attractiveness (OA) index is created using Principal Component Analysis, categorizing opportunities into low, medium, and high attractiveness [23][24] Export and Investment Projections - Under the NZIA scenario, clean tech exports from the 4CEE countries to the EU27 are projected to quintuple by 2030, with Poland capturing 60% of additional exports [43][46] - Investment needs to meet export projections range from $1 billion in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania to $5 billion in Poland, with EV battery manufacturing requiring the largest share of investments [55][57] - Clean tech exports are expected to contribute 1.2% to 3.7% of GDP in the 4CEE countries by 2030, with Croatia leading in relative terms [44][57] Policy Implications - Poland is well-positioned to onshore clean tech production, but challenges include labor force upskilling and declining working-age populations [61] - Fiscal constraints in 4CEE countries limit the use of industrial subsidies, necessitating broader policy interventions beyond subsidies to achieve industrial goals [62][63]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the challenges and opportunities in China's economic landscape, particularly in the property sector and domestic demand [28][29][32] Core Views - China's GDP growth has moderated to 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by subdued domestic demand and a significant drag from the property sector, which saw real estate investment contract by 11.5% y/y in July-November [28] - The government has implemented incremental policy stimulus, including monetary easing and fiscal measures, but the impact has been constrained by weak credit demand and persistent challenges in the property sector [29][32] - The report forecasts GDP growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with inflation expected to remain low at 0.4% in 2024 before rising to 1.1% in 2025 [30][32] Recent Economic Developments - Domestic demand has weakened, with retail sales growing at 2.8% y/y in July-November, about half of the 2019 growth rate, reflecting weak consumer confidence due to falling property prices and sluggish income growth [28][66] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have remained robust, growing by 9.6% and 11.4% y/y respectively in July-November, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment [28][66] - Carbon emissions declined by 0.7% y/y in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by reduced output in construction-related industries, despite a 6.6% y/y increase in electricity production [100][101] Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications - The outlook for China's economy is subject to domestic and external risks, including a persistent downturn in the property sector, tighter local government financing, and global trade uncertainties [33][149] - Policy implications include the need for structural reforms to address vulnerabilities such as high property developer and local government debt, low consumption, and an aging population [34][152] - The report emphasizes the importance of fostering domestic demand, supporting a sustainable property sector recovery, and managing local government financial risks through fiscal reforms [34][157] Special Focus: Economic Mobility and China's Emerging Middle Class - China's secure middle class has expanded significantly, growing from 9.8% of the population in 2010 to 32.1% in 2021, with rural areas seeing a larger absolute reduction in low-income population compared to urban areas [37][165][177] - Education and wage-earning jobs are key pathways to upward mobility, with 62.6% of the secure middle class and 71.2% of the upper-income class belonging to the salaried or wage-earning group [183][184] - Future pathways to upward mobility will likely depend more on higher education, as the economy shifts towards high-value services and innovation-driven industries, with significant gaps in educational attainment between urban and rural areas [191][195]