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超越房地产的增长:周期性上升与结构性挑战 专题:老龄化的中国——对经济增长和不平等的影响
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-26 12:30
Economic Growth and Trade - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 reached 5.3%, driven by improved external demand and trade activities[32] - Merchandise exports increased by 1.5% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, following a contraction of 4.7% in 2023[19] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments grew by 9.9% and 8.8% respectively, despite a 7.9% decline in real estate investment[18] Real Estate Sector - New home sales have dropped by 47.2% compared to the peak in July 2021, with new home prices down 8.0% and second-hand home prices down 14.0% as of April 2024[49] - The government has introduced measures to support the struggling real estate sector, including lowering down payment ratios and providing liquidity to property companies[43] - Real estate investment continues to contract, with new construction area down 24.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024[49] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Consumer price inflation was nearly flat at 0.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, with a full-year inflation rate of only 0.2% in 2023[52] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, following a 3.0% decline in 2023[43] - The decline in consumer demand for durable goods has contributed to low inflation rates, with retail sales growth at 3.5%, below the pre-pandemic average of 7.9%[38] Financial Sector and Credit Growth - Broad fiscal revenue decreased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, primarily due to a drop in domestic VAT revenue[61] - Credit growth continues to slow, with the banking sector's profitability declining despite increased capital adequacy[64][68] - The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP was 1.4% at the end of April 2024, indicating potential risks in budget execution[61] Environmental Concerns - Carbon emissions grew by 2.2% year-on-year in Q1 2024, although this rate is lower than GDP growth, indicating a decoupling of economic growth from emissions[59] - Despite rapid expansion in renewable energy, fossil fuel generation continues to rise to meet increasing electricity demand, with total power generation up 8.8% year-on-year[72]
塞拉利昂塑料循环经济促进可持续旅游和经济多样化:总结报告(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Sierra Leone Circular Economy in Plastics for Sustainable Tourism and Economic Diversification Summary Report Public Disclosure Authorized Contents ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 1. SIERRA LEONE'S PLASTIC SECTOR 12 1.1 PLASTIC MANUFACTURERS LANDSCAPE 15 1.2 PLASTIC RECYCLING LANDSCAPE 16 1.3 OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS FOR PLASTICS CIRCULAR 17 ECONOMY 2. PLASTIC UTILIZATION IN THE SI ...
现金或实物转移:结果是否因转移方式而异?(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Public Disclosure Authorized SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 32 Evidence at Your Fingertips Series Cash or In-Kind Transfers: Do Outcomes Vary According to Transfer Modality? Summary 1. Cash transfers in general appear to be more effective than in-kind transfers or vouchers at improving a range of outcomes, including decreasing monetary poverty, improving health and nutrition, and increasing food security, across diverse country contexts, program objectives, and design fe ...
未来安曼处于一个转折点:实现气候智能空间转型的三大战略(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
FUTURE AMMAN POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE THREE STRATEGIES TOWARD CLIMATE-SMART SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Greater Amman Municipality | FUTURE AMMAN POSITIONED AT A JUNCTU ...
安全网能减少基于性别的暴力吗?怎样?(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Public Disclosure Authorized SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 30 Evidence at Your Fingertips Series Can Safety Nets Reduce Gender-Based Violence? How? Summary 1. A growing body of evidence finds that cash transfers reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) in various contexts, even when the cash transfer was not designed to do so. The effects are comparable with standalone violence-prevention interventions and consistent with various forms of IPV (physical, emotional, control ...
柬埔寨经济更新,2024年6月:柬埔寨的出口复苏和贸易转变(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Public Disclosure Authorized Cambodia Economic Update June 2024 CAMBODIA'S EXPORT REVIVAL AND TRADE SHIFTS Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SPECIAL FOCUS Strengthening Cambodia's Education System for Future Growth Cambodia Economic Update June 2024 CAMBODIA'S EXPORT REVIVAL AND TRADE SHIFTS SPECIAL FOCUS Strengthening Cambodia's Education System for Future Growth TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS..................................V ABBREVIATIONS ......... ...
现金转移支付机制:结果是否因支付机制而异?(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Public Disclosure Authorized SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 34 Evidence at Your Fingertips Series Cash Transfer Payment Mechanisms: Do Outcomes Vary According to Payment Mechanism? Summary 1. Based on the most recent impact evaluation evidence, on its own, the payment mechanism used to distribute cash—whether physical or digital— does not have notably different impacts on how recipients use cash or on outcome indicators such as consumption and food security, gender equit ...
综合环境和社会敏感性制图早期海上风电空间规划指南(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Public Disclosure Authorized INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL & SOCIAL SENSITIVITY MAPPING GUIDANCE FOR EARLY OFFSHORE WIND SPATIAL PLANNING REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized © June 2024 | International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202–473–1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the World Bank Group with contributions given by the staff and consultants listed ...
现金转移规模:多少才足够?(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that both high-value and low-value cash transfers can significantly enhance household consumption and asset accumulation, with higher-value transfers generally yielding greater economic impacts [2][13][19] - It highlights the importance of transfer design, including size, duration, and predictability, in maximizing the effectiveness of cash transfer programs [5][27][30] - The report notes that while higher-value transfers can lead to increased investments and savings, lower-value transfers can still have meaningful impacts, especially when combined with behavioral change communications [3][18][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Cash Transfer Size and Impact - High-value cash transfers (greater than 30% of mean annual household income) tend to produce more substantial impacts on consumption and investment compared to low-value transfers [6][14] - Even low-value transfers (less than 30% of mean annual income) can have measurable effects, particularly when accompanied by supportive messaging [3][4][19] Consumption and Assets - Households receiving high-value transfers tend to spend more on food and invest in productive assets, leading to improved health and nutrition outcomes [14][15][19] - A systematic review indicates that unconditional cash transfers can increase household consumption significantly, although higher transfer values do not always correlate with longer-lasting effects [13][14] Labor and Time Use - High-value transfers may lead to a shift from paid labor to self-employment or care activities, while low-value transfers do not discourage work [20][22] - Evidence suggests that larger transfers can enable recipients to engage in more profitable income-generating activities [21][22] Education, Health, and Nutrition - Higher-value transfers are associated with improved health and nutrition outcomes, particularly for children, but the impact on education is less conclusive [24][26] - The effectiveness of cash transfers in promoting education may depend more on external factors such as school quality and distance than on transfer value alone [26][27] Empowerment - Cash transfers can enhance women's bargaining power and reduce intimate partner violence, although high-value transfers may sometimes lead to increased abuse in certain demographics [27][28] - The report suggests that both high-value and low-value transfers can play significant roles in promoting gender equity and reducing violence, depending on the context [27][30]
现金转移时间:转移持续时间和频率如何影响结果(英)2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-06-25 08:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The timing of cash transfers, specifically duration and frequency, significantly influences household outcomes in health, nutrition, education, and labor [2][11][15] - Longer duration cash transfers (more than 24 months) are associated with greater predictability and impact, particularly for children's health and education [3][4][5] - Frequency of cash disbursements alone does not significantly affect outcomes, with one-time transfers often being more appealing due to lower costs [4][15][18] - The interplay of size, frequency, and duration of cash transfers can yield different results than any single factor alone [4][10][29] Summary by Sections Evidence Overview - Limited studies since 2016 focus on cash transfer timing, with robust findings on duration impacting health, nutrition, and employment outcomes [5][12][35] - Studies indicate that long-duration transfers yield better outcomes compared to short-duration transfers [3][4] Health, Nutrition, and Food Security - Duration of transfers has a more significant impact on health and nutrition than frequency [15][18] - Long-term transfers during critical periods, such as the first 1,000 days of a child's life, lead to better health outcomes [17][19] - One-time lump-sum transfers can be as effective as more frequent payments in certain contexts [18][32] Mental Health and Psychosocial Well-Being - Recent studies indicate that longer-duration cash transfers improve mental health outcomes [20][21][23] - The relationship between cash transfers and mental health is still an emerging area requiring further research [19][23] Education - Longer exposure to cash transfers correlates with improved educational attainment and future income prospects [24][25] - Timing of transfers during critical educational periods enhances their effectiveness [24][29] Employment and Labor - Long-term cash transfers do not necessarily reduce working hours but can shift the type of labor households engage in [24][30] - Evidence suggests that cash transfers can encourage entrepreneurship and self-employment [24][30] Consumption, Savings, and Investment - Frequency of transfers does not significantly impact savings and investment outcomes, with some studies indicating that monthly payments may facilitate consumption smoothing [27][28] - Larger lump-sum transfers can lead to immediate increases in savings and investment [29][30] Gender Equity and Empowerment - The frequency and size of cash transfers influence women's control over finances and related outcomes [28][29] - Larger, less frequent transfers may empower women differently compared to smaller, more frequent payments [28][29] Implementation Considerations - Cost-effectiveness of cash transfer programs favors one-time lump-sum payments over more frequent disbursements [30][31] - Design factors such as transfer size, frequency, and duration should be considered collectively to optimize outcomes [30][34]