公司深度研究 | 颐海国际 股息托底，全球扩张 颐海国际（1579.HK）首次覆盖报告 2016 年上市至今，颐海国际经历了从规模扩展→估值泡沫→回落调整→价值 企稳的过程。早期公司享受成长性的估值溢价，但随后海底捞出现关店，颐 海关联方收入波动，同时行业成长性不及预期，估值开始从高点回落。在此 期间，颐海国际资本开支进入下行周期，提升分红比例，市场对公司定价逻 辑从高成长标的到低估值、高股息公司。 长期来看，我们认为底料、复调行业依然还有成长空间，并非存量市场。根 据弗若斯特沙利文数据，我国复合调味品市场规模约 1265 亿，其中鸡精鸡 粉、火锅调味料、菜谱式调料、其他复调规模分别为 307、269、216、473 亿元。2020 年前后行业快速增长，现在进入稳步增长阶段。随着餐饮连锁化 率提升、城镇化率提升、家庭厨房烹饪越来越非专业化等趋势，复合调味品 依然是渗透率提升的量增赛道。 关联方业务有望回暖，餐饮 B 端与海外市场成为核心增长点。关联方收入 有望跟随海底捞企稳改善，国内 C 端业务销量稳步增长，公司在大 B、小 B 两端同步发力，并自 2025 年起组建小 B 团队，依托供应链与研发优势， 完善 ...

【电力设备】思源电气（002028.SZ）25 年业绩快报点评：业绩持续向好， 26 年看 AIDC，27 年看储能 投资建议：预计公司 25-27 年分别实现归母净利润 31.63/44.23/59.24 亿元， 同比+54.3%/39.8%/33.9%，EPS 分别为 4.04/5.66/7.57 元，维持"买入" 评级。 【有色金属】金诚信（603979.SH）动态跟踪点评：矿服合同落地，矿服+ 铜矿双轮驱动业绩可期 我们预计 2025-2027 年公司 EPS 分别为 3.97、5.50、6.37 元，PE 分别为 19、14、12 倍，维持"买入"评级。 【有色金属】北方稀土（600111.SH）25 年业绩预增点评：25 年稀土行业 景气度攀升，公司业绩斐然绽放 公司发布 25 年业绩预增公告，25 年公司预计实现归母净利润 21.76-23.56 亿元，同比+116.67%-134.60%，预计 25 年扣非净利润为 19.6-21.4 亿元， 同比+117.46%-137.43%。其中，25Q4 预计实现归母净利润 6.35-8.15 亿元， 同比+6.01%-36.06%，环比+4.10%- ...

Economic Growth - The economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, with significant contributions from external demand[1] - In Q4 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive quarters[1] - Net exports are expected to contribute 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from 2024[1] Nominal GDP and Price Index - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to slow down, with a year-on-year increase of 4% in 2025, down from 2024[1] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease by 1% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures[1] - In Q4 2025, nominal GDP is expected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year, a slight recovery from Q3's 3.7%[1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial output is expected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in December, up from 4.8% in November[2] - The service sector production index is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year in December, compared to 4.2% in November[2] Retail and Consumer Confidence - Retail sales are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, a slight increase from 3.5% in 2024[2] - The consumer confidence index is anticipated to rise to 90.3 in November, indicating improved consumer sentiment[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% in 2025, with a significant drop of 15.1% year-on-year in December[3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to decrease by 16%, manufacturing investment by 10.6%, and real estate investment by 35.8%[3] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing is expected to decline by 8.7% year-on-year in 2025, with sales revenue down by 12.6%[3] - Real estate prices in 70 major cities are expected to continue their downward trend, with no signs of stabilization by year-end[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.176 to 2.356 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.67% to 134.60%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.96 to 2.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 117.46% to 137.43% [1][6]. - In Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 635 to 815 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.01% to 36.06% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.10% to 33.61%. This growth is primarily driven by a significant rise in rare earth prices [1][6]. - The overall market demand for rare earths is stable, and the company is actively promoting innovation, talent development, industrial upgrades, and management reforms, which have laid a solid foundation for substantial profit growth [2][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.62 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 81.7, 56.8, and 44.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 32.966 billion yuan in 2024 to 40.852 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 23.9% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase significantly from 1.004 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.259 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 125% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and potential for upward momentum in earnings [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant growth, with notable increases in net profits for companies like Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of macroeconomic factors, including U.S. inflation rates and China's monetary policy adjustments, on the industry [2][3][17]. - The ongoing demand for rare earth products and the strategic importance of metals like tungsten and lithium are highlighted as key investment opportunities [51][52][53]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 3.03% [10]. - Key stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Industry saw significant gains, while others like Youyan Powder Materials faced declines [10]. Key Focus Areas - U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, influencing market expectations for interest rate adjustments [16]. - The People's Bank of China announced measures to support economic growth through monetary policy, which may benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [17][18]. - China's foreign trade reached a record high of 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating robust demand for exports [19]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 116.67% to 134.60% in 2025, driven by effective inventory management and increased sales [20][21]. - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit growth of 47.80% to 53.71%, attributed to rising product prices and effective cost control [22]. Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price fluctuations, with copper prices at $12,803 per ton and aluminum at $3,134 per ton [23][25]. - Lithium carbonate prices have risen to 153,100 yuan per ton, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal sector [44]. Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise, with strategic initiatives in place to support the industry, including government policies aimed at enhancing the rare earth supply chain [51][52][53].

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The regional spread of urban investment bonds has shown a significant differentiation, with the spread in economically strong regions remaining low and the spread in weak - qualified regions still high. As platforms complete the clearance of implicit debts and exit the "list", market attention will shift to regional economic resilience and platform self - hematopoietic ability [1][15]. - The term spread of low - rated urban investment bonds has widened, indicating market concerns about the long - term solvency of weak - qualified entities after transformation. The market also has high requirements for liquidity compensation for weak - qualified urban investment bonds [17][21]. - Urban investment bonds with a remaining term of less than 2 years have relatively strong safety margins and can be explored according to return requirements. For longer durations, medium - to high - grade urban investment bonds with strong self - hematopoietic abilities and stable cash flows should be selected. Insurance institutions with stable liability ends can appropriately focus on the coupon allocation value of high - grade urban investment bonds over 5 years [2][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Analysis of Urban Investment Bond Spreads in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - **Regional spread differentiation**: The "package debt resolution policy" has effectively alleviated the liquidity risk in weak - qualified regions, causing the regional spread to decline rapidly in the early stage of the policy. Since the second half of 2025, the regional spread has dropped below 150bp, but the absolute spread between strong and weak regions is still significant. The credit spread in economically and fiscally strong regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong remains at a low level of 30 - 40bp, while that in weak - qualified regions such as Guizhou is still above 150bp [11][15]. - **Term spread differentiation**: As the key point approaches, the pricing center of the term spread of urban investment bonds has shifted upward, and the widening range of the term spread of low - rated bonds is relatively higher. For example, the 3Y - 1Y term spread center of AAA - rated urban investment bonds has increased by 10bp from - 6.6bp in 2024, while that of AA(2) - rated bonds has increased by 17bp. The difference between the spreads of 1 - 2Y and 3 - 5Y low - rated urban investment bonds in Jiangsu has reached a new high since the end of 2025 [17][21]. 3.2. Overview of Credit Bond Yields - Last week (January 12 - 18, 2026), credit bond yields mainly declined. Financial bonds outperformed general credit bonds, long - term varieties outperformed short - term ones, and credit bonds mostly outperformed interest - rate bonds of the same term. Among them, bank secondary perpetual bonds in financial bonds performed the best [23]. 3.3. Primary Market - **Issuance volume**: The issuance scale of credit bonds increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and the net financing scale decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year. From January 12 to 18, the credit bond issuance scale was 351.271 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 41.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 216 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 61.793 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 90.3 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 157.8 billion yuan [31]. - **Issuance term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased week - on - week. Last week, the average issuance term was 2.7 years, a decrease of 0.17 years compared with the previous week. The issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.57 years, 0.2 years, and 0.46 years respectively [40]. - **Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased. Last week, the average issuance interest rate was 2.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1bp. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.6bp, 1.1bp, and 1.8bp respectively [42]. - **Cancellation of issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased week - on - week. From January 12 to 18, 15 bonds were cancelled, an increase of 7 compared with the previous week, and the total scale of cancelled issuances was 8.308 billion yuan, an increase of 1.662 billion yuan [46]. 3.4. Secondary Market - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of various credit bond varieties increased compared with the previous week. The trading volumes of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 40 billion yuan. In terms of remaining term and implicit rating, there were different trends in the trading proportion of each variety [51][52]. - **Trading liquidity**: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased from 1.58%, 1.99%, and 3.21% to 1.80%, 2.10%, and 3.51% respectively. The turnover rates of different terms of each variety showed different trends [55]. - **Spread tracking**: The spreads of urban investment bonds mostly narrowed last week, with the average narrowing amplitude ranked as 1Y>10Y>7Y>3Y. Except for Shanghai and Gansu, the spreads of each province narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed. The spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds all narrowed [60][65][66]. 3.5. Weekly Hot Bonds Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [70]. 3.6. Review of Credit Rating Adjustments According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded debt ratings last week [75].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from "single satellite testing" to "constellation networking," with significant growth expected as China develops reusable rocket technology and increases satellite launches [5][6][7] - The "Zhuque-3" rocket has a launch capacity of 21.3 tons, surpassing the Falcon 9's initial recovery capacity, indicating a strong foundation for future satellite launches [6] - The market potential for domestic satellite launches is substantial, with an estimated annual demand for approximately 4,000 satellites, suggesting a significant growth trajectory for the industry [6][7] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Spring Power (603129.SH) is projected to achieve net profits of 1.907 billion, 2.371 billion, and 2.805 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target market capitalization of 49.8 billion yuan based on a 21x PE ratio for 2026 [2][13] - The company is positioned as a leader in all-terrain vehicles and large-displacement motorcycles, with competitive advantages in performance and cost-effectiveness compared to international competitors [13][14] - The electric two-wheeler segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with sales reaching 250,500 units and revenue of 872 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 652.06% [15] Group 3: Financial Sector - The introduction of the "Derivatives Trading Supervision Management Measures" aims to regulate the derivatives market, enhancing the legal framework and promoting the development of the derivatives business [32][33][34] - The measures emphasize the importance of derivatives in managing risks and supporting the real economy, indicating a growing focus on regulatory oversight in the financial sector [32][34] - Major securities firms are expected to benefit from the regulatory changes, particularly those with strengths in derivatives trading, as the market becomes more structured and opportunities for growth arise [34] Group 4: Macro Financial Data - In December, new loans totaled 910 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease compared to the previous year, while corporate loans showed signs of recovery [18][19] - The social financing growth rate slowed, primarily due to government financing constraints, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity [19][20] - The central bank's recent rate cuts and liquidity measures suggest a continued effort to support economic growth and maintain stable financing conditions [20][40]

Group 1: Political Context - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae intends to dissolve the House of Representatives at the beginning of the regular Diet session on January 23, with elections expected in early to mid-February[1] - The last dissolution of the House of Representatives occurred during the Ishiba regime, where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) only secured 191 seats, a decrease of 56 seats from before the dissolution[1][2] Group 2: Government Support and Strategy - Kishi's intention to reorganize the House stems from a mismatch between a weak Diet and a strong cabinet approval rating, which is significantly higher than that of the previous Ishiba government[2] - The current ruling coalition barely holds a majority in the House of Representatives, while the LDP's support rate remains high, prompting Kishi to seek a new election to strengthen her position[2][3] Group 3: Market Implications - A successful election could provide Kishi with a majority in the House, facilitating the implementation of aggressive fiscal and industrial policies, which may lead to a bullish stock market but raise concerns about Japan's debt sustainability[3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a significant increase, reflecting market optimism about Kishi's potential electoral success, with expectations that it could rise to 55,000 points by the end of March[3][4] Group 4: Economic Concerns - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 240%, raising questions about fiscal sustainability amid plans for record budget increases and substantial bond issuance[3][4] - The bond market is under pressure, with the five-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since its introduction in 2000, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal expansion and increased debt supply[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on technology sectors and policy-supported areas, suggesting a positive outlook for specialized and innovative companies in the semiconductor and robotics fields [3]. Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing a rotation with clear policy guidance, emphasizing the importance of technology and innovation in driving growth [3]. - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 30.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.79 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1548.33, up 0.23% [7]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 119 out of 288 companies rising, while 165 fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On January 16, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 30.43 billion yuan, down from the previous day [7]. - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1548.33, with a PE_TTM of 64.92 times, while the specialized and innovative index closed at 2666.88, up 0.46% [7][16]. Stock Performance - The top five gainers included Kema Materials (371.3%), Kaide Quartz (20.3%), and Tietuo Machinery (10.2%) [16]. - The top five losers were Liujin Technology (-13.9%), Keli Co., Ltd. (-11.8%), and Meideng Technology (-9.2%) [16]. Important News - Significant advancements in liquid metal flexible electronics manufacturing have been reported, providing innovative solutions for high-performance and green applications [2]. - The Chinese FAST telescope has made a breakthrough in capturing the evolution of fast radio bursts, marking a significant achievement in astrophysics [19]. Company Announcements - Ximic Technology has been re-certified as a high-tech enterprise, enhancing its innovation capabilities [20]. - Kangbiter announced the lifting of restrictions on 211,500 shares, representing 0.17% of its total share capital, effective January 21, 2026 [22].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the wind power sector, highlighting companies such as Daikin Heavy Industries, Zhongtian Technology, Goldwind, Trina Solar, and Mingyang Smart Energy, while suggesting to pay attention to Haili Wind Power, Yunda Co., and Delijia [1] Core Insights - The UK AR7 auction has secured 8.4GW of offshore wind capacity, accelerating the development of offshore wind power in Europe [1] - Tesla's Optimus V3 is expected to be released soon, indicating ongoing growth in the robotics industry [1] - The establishment of an AI industry innovation center between China and ASEAN is set for this year, with a five-year digital ecological cooperation plan [1] Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Power - The UK has announced the results of the AR7 offshore wind auction, locking in 8.4GW of installed capacity [1] - Recommended companies in the wind power sector include Daikin Heavy Industries, Zhongtian Technology, Goldwind, Trina Solar, and Mingyang Smart Energy, with additional attention to Haili Wind Power, Yunda Co., and Delijia [1] Robotics Industry - Tesla's third-generation robot, Optimus V3, is anticipated to be released soon, as confirmed by a close associate of Elon Musk [1] - Recommended companies in the robotics sector include UBTECH, Wuzhou New Spring, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Keda Li, with a focus on Hanwei Technology and Xinjie Electric [1] AI and Data Centers - China and ASEAN are set to establish an AI industry innovation center within the year, along with a five-year digital ecological cooperation plan [1] - Recommended companies for AI computing data centers include Siyuan Electric, Dongfang Electric, Sifang Co., and Igor, with additional attention to Liande Co., Xizi Clean Energy, and Keda [1] Energy Investment - The State Grid has announced that fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, focusing on new energy and smart grid development [2] - Recommended companies in the power equipment sector include Pinggao Electric, Siyuan Electric, Shunhua Electric, and Guoneng Rixin, with a suggestion to pay attention to TBEA [2] Solid-State Battery Technology - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to accelerate breakthroughs in solid-state batteries and advanced autonomous driving technologies [2] - Recommended companies in the solid-state battery sector include Dangsheng Technology, with additional attention to Xianhui Technology, Xian Dao Intelligent, Naconor, and Honggong Technology [2] Nickel and Cobalt Sector - Indonesia is tightening its nickel ore production quotas, with expected quotas between 250 million to 260 million tons for the year [2] - Recommended companies in the nickel and cobalt sector include Greeenme, Huayou Cobalt, with additional attention to Fangyuan Co. and Zhongwei New Materials [2] Electric Vehicle Sector - The report highlights the electric vehicle sector, recommending companies such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Enjie, Tianci Materials, Terui, and Zhongrong Electric [2] - The consumption battery sector includes recommendations for Haopeng Technology, Zhuhai Guanyu, and Xinwangda, with additional attention to Zhi Jian Electronics [2]