海外政策周报 独木难支：为什么英伟达财报暂未打消市场对 AI 的疑虑？ 海外政策周聚焦 核心结论 摘要内容 英伟达财报数据亮眼，市场短暂上涨，随后大跌。有两大原因：美联储降息 预期破灭与 AI 估值泡沫担忧。 英伟达积极财报暂未平息 AI 泡沫担忧。市场质疑 AI 投资回报率与循环融资。 类似于加州淘金热期间，追踪铁锹、鹤嘴锄和筛金盘的销售数据，并不能真 正证明淘金热的繁荣。当前英伟达的销售业绩，或许也不一定能巩固 AI 革 命的合理性。 更深层的，AI 叙事的基本假设也在被质疑。 2022 年 ChatGPT 诞生以来，市场的 AI 叙事有两条基本假设：1）当年智 能手机催生了全新的科技生态，人工智能会复制同样的故事；2）AI 会提升 生产率，最终受益者大概率是那几家美国的科技巨头。但这两条逻辑正在面 临挑战。 AI 创新与智能手机存在两大差异，基建投资规模更大，开源模型竞争导致 赢家盈利水平更低。因而 AI 投资回报率或低于智能手机。 历史上看，索洛悖论表明，技术进步加快不一定表现在全要素生产率提高上。 因为信息技术投资与生产率增速之间存在统计落差。 我们认为，AI 对劳动生产率的提升效果，是类似电力等新 ...

证券研究报告 还有增量资金吗？ ——从机构参与度复盘2025年CPO行情 西部证券研发中心 2025年11月25日 分析师 | 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 邮箱地址：fengjiarui@xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 张逸飞 邮箱地址：zhangyifei@xbmail.com.cn 机密和专有 未经西部证券许可，任何对此资料的使用严格禁止 主要结论 我们认为，CPO板块近期无显著增量资金。 • 风险提示：数据来源第三方，或有遗漏、滞后、误差；本报告使用历史数据测算完成，存在历史统计规律失效风险；市场风格变化风险：市场投 资风格可能发生变化，影响当前因子的有效性。 请仔细阅读尾部的免责声明 2 • 算法交易已在机构投资者中普及，渗透率高。因此，算法交易的使用情况可衡量某个股票或行业的机构参与度。 • "算法交易"撤单次数越高，机构参与越多。 • "算法交易"撤单次数占全部撤单次数的比例，相对全市场平均水平是否大于1，可度量机构相对参与度。 • 根据机构相对参与度复盘2025年CPO行情， • 阶段1：升温，机构资金持续入场。2025年5月至7月底，机构相对参与度显著抬升，且始终大于1。 • ...

公司点评 | 快手-W 盈利能力稳步提升，AI 业务商业化提供增量空间 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 快手-W（01024.HK）2025Q3 业绩点评 业绩摘要：公司 25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 355.54 亿元（YoY+14%），营 业利润 46.76 亿元（YoY+76%），净利润 44.88 亿元（YoY+37%），经调整 净利润 49.86 亿元（YoY+26%），经调整净利率为 14%，盈利能力稳步提升。 快手应用 25Q3 平均日活跃用户（DAU）4.16 亿（YoY+2.1%），平均月活 跃用户（MAU）7.31 亿（YoY+2.4%），每位日活跃用户平均线上营销服务 收入（ARPDAU）48.3 元（YoY+12%），总电商 GMV 为 3850.44 亿元 （YoY+15%）。 公司持续推进 AI 业务商业化：公司于 2025 年 9 月底推出了可灵 2.5 Turbo 模型，登顶 Artificial Analysis 全球文生视频模型和图生视频模型榜单第一名。 可灵 AI 在 25Q3 单季度收入超过 3 亿元。公司持续优化 OneRec 端到端生 成式推荐大模型 ...

Core Conclusions - The non-farm employment in the U.S. unexpectedly increased by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - The price of antimony has rebounded significantly, presenting potential investment opportunities in antimony-related sectors [2][4] Domestic Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,836.77, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12,585.08 [3] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.12% to 4,448.05, indicating a mixed performance across major indices [3] International Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,448.27, up by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw increases of 1.55% and 2.69%, closing at 6,705.12 and 22,872.01 respectively [3] Industry Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with a 10 to 2 vote to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [4] - The Congo has extended the ban on artisanal mining trade in conflict-affected provinces, impacting global supply chains for tin, tantalum, and tungsten, which are critical for electronics and aerospace industries [7] Market Trends - The North Exchange saw an average daily trading volume of 17.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.2% week-on-week, with the North Exchange 50 index dropping by 9.04% [8] - The top five gainers included Dapeng Industrial (up 1211.1%) and Beikang Testing (up 289.6%), while the largest losers were Luqiao Information (down 23.2%) and Taipeng Intelligent (down 19.8%) [8] Investment Recommendations - The North Exchange's policy support is expected to benefit specialized and innovative enterprises, with a focus on the net subscription status of thematic funds and the liquidity recovery opportunities from the launch of the "specialized and innovative" index funds [10] - The current market adjustment may provide a window for medium to long-term investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth sectors that have been undervalued [10]

行业周报 | 有色金属 锑价触底回升且明显反弹，关注锑相关投资机会 有色金属行业周报（2025.11.17 -2025.11.23） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储 10 月会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否降息存在 较大分歧 美东时间周三（11 月 19 日），美联储公布了 10 月 28 日至 29 日的联邦公 开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。FOMC 在 10 月会议上以 10 比 2 的投票结 果通过了降息 25 个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 本周核心关注二：美国 9 月非农超预期，失业率升至 4.4%，降息预期降温 本周，美东时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业 意外大增 11.9 万人，显著高于市场预期的 5 万人，失业率从 8 月的 4.3%升 至 4.4%，创 2021 年以来新高。此外，7 月份非农新增就业人数从 7.9 万人 下修 7000 人至 7.2 万人；8 月份非农新增就业人数从 2.2 万人下修 2.6 万至 -0.4 万人。修正后，7 月和 8 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 emphasizes a shift towards "革故鼎新" (reform and innovation), indicating a notable recovery in nominal economic growth and a rebalancing of the economy towards domestic demand [2][6][8] - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in performance with a focus on the differences in asset-liability structures, suggesting a strategy of selecting low-risk quality stocks [3][20][21] - The AI industry is highlighted as a significant macroeconomic influencer, with discussions around its potential bubble and the implications of its financialization [3][13][15] Group 2 - The computer industry report discusses the full-stack AI capability chain established by Alibaba and Google, focusing on their respective strategies in chip development, cloud services, and application integration [4][24][25] - Alibaba's strategy includes a shift towards consumer markets while maintaining a strong enterprise focus, leveraging its cloud infrastructure and self-developed chips [24][26][27] - Google's advancements in AI are driven by its proprietary TPU chips and the Gemini model, which enhance its competitive edge in the AI application space [25][26][27] Group 3 - The banking sector's performance is projected to stabilize with a focus on dividend expansion and the identification of quality banks that align with policy directions [20][21][22] - The report anticipates a steady growth in bank earnings, with a particular emphasis on the recovery of net interest margins and non-interest income [22][23] - The overall banking landscape is expected to benefit from a supportive macroeconomic environment, with government investments and policies aimed at sustaining economic growth [20][21] Group 4 - The report on the electronic sector highlights the growth of companies like Longxin Technology and Zhongrong Electric, focusing on their advancements in AI-related products and market expansion [38][42] - The performance of these companies is driven by increasing demand in data centers and automotive electronics, with significant revenue growth reported [35][42] - Investment recommendations suggest a positive outlook for these companies based on their innovative product offerings and market positioning [40][44]

金工量化周报 上周申报 7 只上证科创板芯片 ETF ——ETF 市场扫描与策略跟踪（2025.11.23） 核心结论 摘要内容 全球市场概况：上周，A 股市场整体下跌，其中，北证 50 指数跌幅最大， 为 9.04%；港股市场有所下跌，恒生指数下跌 5.09%。跌幅居前的 ETF 跟 踪标的多为新能源板块指数。 ETF 新发情况：上周内地市场上报股票 ETF 19 只；新成立股票 ETF 9 只。 美国市场上周新成立权益型 ETF 17 只，其中 16 只为主动 ETF。 A 股 ETF 资金流向：上周，净流入排名前 10 的多为宽基指数 ETF；净流出 前 10 的多为周期板块指数 ETF。宽基 ETF 中，跟踪中证 500 指数的 ETF 净流入居前，跟踪 MSCI 中国 A50 互联互通指数的 ETF 净流出居前；行业 ETF 中，TMT 板块 ETF 净流入居前；主题 ETF 中，港股通科技 ETF 基金 （159101）净流入居前，金融科技 ETF（159851）净流出居前；主动 ETF 中，科创 50 增强 ETF 净流入居前，中证 2000 增强 ETF 净流出居前；Smart Beta ET ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the wind power sector, specifically highlighting companies such as 大金重工, 金风科技, 中天科技, and 东方电缆, while suggesting to pay attention to 德力佳, 运达股份, 海力风电, and 金雷股份 [1] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued documents to avoid a "price-only" approach in the wind power equipment sector, promoting healthy industry development [1] - In October, the national electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with the tertiary industry experiencing the most significant growth [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in nuclear fusion project tenders, amounting to 2.17 billion yuan this week [1] - The report recommends investment in the power equipment sector, specifically mentioning 东方电气, 思源电气, 神马电力, and 国能日新, while suggesting to pay attention to 特变电工 [1] Summary by Sections Wind Power Equipment - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has encouraged user enterprises to optimize bidding rules and introduce various evaluation systems to avoid a "price-only" approach [1][45] - The report recommends several companies in the wind power sector, including 大金重工, 金风科技, and 东方电缆 [1] Electricity Consumption - In October, the total electricity consumption in China reached 857.2 billion kWh, marking a 10.4% year-on-year increase [1][9] Nuclear Fusion - This week, nuclear fusion project tenders reached 2.17 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [1][48] Power Equipment - The report recommends investment in companies such as 东方电气, 思源电气, and 神马电力, while suggesting to pay attention to 特变电工 [1]

公司动态跟踪 | 源杰科技 25Q3 CW 光源产品放量增收，毛利率同、环比改善 产品结构优化拉动毛利率同、环比改善，持续加大研发投入。25Q1/Q2/Q3 公司毛利率分别为 44.64%/51.71%/61.62%，25Q3 毛利率同比+39.64pct、 环比+9.91pct；费用率上，25Q3 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 2.47%/7.13%/15.71%/-1.81%，四费率合计 23.50%，同比-11.9pct、环比 +3.41pct。在研发方面，公司持续加大研发投入，研发费用达到 2801 万元， 占营业收入的比例为 15.71%。 产能：美国工厂处于基础设施建设与设备定价阶段，预计 26 年起逐渐释放 产能。公司将持续加强设备投入，预计 25 年底-26Q2 产能逐步释放，26 年 产能有望加速释放。 投资建议：公司持续加大对高速率光芯片、大功率光芯片、芯片工艺等相关 技术和产品的研发投入，持续提升产品竞争力。伴随产品良率提升和高毛利 产品占比提升，公司的盈利能力有望继续提升。预计公司 25/26/27 年归母净 利润 1.8 亿元/3.8 亿元/5.2 亿元，对应 P/E 为 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 1.255 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 13.86% year-on-year [1][4] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported revenue of 469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.83%, with a net profit of 68 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.04% [1][4] - The company is strengthening its core business, with micro drive systems generating revenue of 498 million yuan in H1 2025, up 20.51% year-on-year, and precision injection molding parts achieving revenue of 239 million yuan, up 16.25% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding into the smart automotive sector, establishing long-term partnerships with major clients such as Bosch, BYD, and Li Auto, and is also focusing on consumer and medical technology applications [2] - The company is making breakthroughs in high-end applications of intelligent robotics, with the launch of innovative dexterous hand technologies that feature multiple degrees of freedom and advanced sensing capabilities [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 261 million yuan, 331 million yuan, and 443 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 26.8%, and 33.8% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.08 yuan, 1.37 yuan, and 1.84 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 1.870 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.956 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 22.6% and 26.8% [7]