公司点评 | 敏华控股 收入降幅收窄，利润率稳中有升 敏华控股（01999.HK）2026 财年中期业绩点评 公司发布 FY26H1 主营收入 80.4 亿港元，同比-3.1%；归母净利润 11.46 亿 港元，同比+0.6%；毛利率 40.4%，同比+0.9pct；净利率 14.2%，同比+0.5pct。 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万港元） | 18,411.20 | 16,902.63 | 17,097.85 | 17,826.52 | 18,653.44 | | YoY(%) | 6.11 | -8.19 | 1.15 | 4.26 | 4.64 | | 净利润（百万港元） | 2,302.37 | 2,062.62 | 2,230.39 | 2,402.86 | 2,583.85 | | YoY(%) | 20.23 | -10.41 | 8.13 | 7.73 | 7.53 | | EPS(摊薄/港元) | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0 ...

10 月上市猪企出栏量同环比均增加，售价同环比走低 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 18 日 生猪行业动态跟踪报告（月度） 行业动态跟踪 | 农林牧渔 我们通过分析 18 家上市猪企的出栏月报，得出以下结论： 上市猪企 25 年 10 月出栏量为 1881.43 万头，同比+30.28%，环比+23.03%。 头部企业中，牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望生猪出栏 707.60/389.28/168.51 万 头，同比分别 +13.17%/+45.69%/+34.44% ，环比 +26.97%/+17.07%/ +20.87%。25 年 10 月上市猪企出栏量同比、环比均出现大幅增长，原因是 （1）上市猪企在消费旺季加大生猪供给，（2）24 年上市猪企产能扩张明 显，导致目前生猪存栏量较为充沛。上市猪企 25 年 1~10 月累计出栏量为 1.58 亿头，同比+21.25%。1~10 月猪企累计出栏量增速保持在 20%左右， 与前几个月增速一致，显示 25 年出栏量上升的原因是 24 年上市猪企产能增 加，同时 25 年产量释放较平稳，同比增速稳定。头部猪企中温氏股份出栏 量增速较高，新希望产能扩张有限导致出栏 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 18 日 核心结论 分析师 【海外政策】特朗普 2.0 背景下的美元表现再思考 短期美元走势并非由单一因素驱动，而是在疲软的宏观数据、摇摆的货币政 策预期、敏感的资本流动以及地缘政治情绪等多重力量博弈下震荡承压。而 长期美国财政赤字与债务问题持续恶化，叠加地缘冲突和全球政局不稳定性 事件频发，其长期化趋势正不断侵蚀美元信誉。 【量化】指数成分股定期调整预测（2025.12）：9 支个股或将调入沪深 300 指数 随着被动投资影响力扩大，指数成分股调整所带来的调仓效应日益凸显。当 主要宽基指数调整成分股时，相关 ETF 的再平衡交易往往会在短期内对调 入调出个股的流动性和价格产生显著影响。基于此，对 5 个核心宽基指数— —沪深 300、中证 A500、科创 50、中证 500、创业板指进行成分股调整预 测，有助于把握被动资金调仓带来的短期交易机会。 晨会纪要 【策略】擎画"完美故事"系列报告（四）：AI 电力的"攻守易形" 电力缺口成为美国 AI 竞赛的"阿喀琉斯之踵"，泛新能源产业链迎重要历史 机遇，即将在 26 年迎来关键转折点。建议关注上游原材料（关键金属、冷 却液 ...

金工量化专题报告 9 支个股或将调入沪深 300 指数 指数成分股定期调整预测（2025.12） 核心结论 随着被动投资影响力扩大，指数成分股调整所带来的调仓效应日益凸显。当 主要宽基指数调整成分股时，相关 ETF 的再平衡交易往往会在短期内对调入 调出个股的流动性和价格产生显著影响。基于此，对 5 个核心宽基指数—— 沪深 300、中证 A500、科创 50、中证 500、创业板指进行成分股调整预测， 有助于把握被动资金调仓带来的短期交易机会。 主要结论五、创业板指：常山药业、惠城环保、罗伯特科等 8 支个股有望 调入；而欧普康视、易华录、怡合达等 8 支个股或将调出。 风险提示：本文仅根据编制方案与历史数据在合理假设条件下进行测算，无 法完全准确代表指数成分股未来实际调整；基于历史数据进行客观测算，不 构成个股投资建议；数据与模型构建过程可能存在偏差。 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 17 日 【报告亮点】 【主要结论】 主要结论一、沪深 300：华电新能、胜宏科技、宁波港等 9 支个股有望调 入沪深 300 指数；而 TCL 中环、纳斯达、星宇股份等 9 支个股或将调出。 主要结论二、中证 A50 ...

擎画"完美故事"系列报告（四） 核心结论 1、AI 进入阶段二：从"硬投入"到"软效率" 自 2022 年 11 月 ChatGPT 发布，AI 革命浩浩荡荡发展至今已有 3 年，AI 算力需求激增与电力供应瓶颈成为最突出的矛盾。当前，投资逻辑正发生根 本性转变：从关注资本开支的"硬投入"，转向重视运营的"软效率"。一方 面，各大科技巨头在投资算力建设，另一方面，大量采购的 GPU 因电力不 足被闲置，面临缺电的窘境。原因在于 AI 数据中心（AIDC）的建设周期中， 电力容量审批和电网基础设施建设的周期远长于芯片采购。 2、解决电力问题，是科技巨头们达成 2026 年承诺的必要条件 经过多轮预期上调，目前市场对科技巨头 2026 年的 CAPEX 预期已经较高， 单纯计算"买算力"（芯片）的边际效益正在递减。如微软 CEO 纳德拉所说， 供电能力和数据中心建设速度是其目前最大瓶颈。更重要的是沉没成本的体 现：一旦电力问题导致芯片闲置，芯片的折旧将大幅侵蚀当期利润，这是其 股东无法接受的。因此，2026 年科技巨头对电力的追逐将进一步加速。 策略点评报告 AI 电力的"攻守易形" 3、攻守易形：从"算力配套" ...

公司点评 | 天佑德酒 高原佳酿，静待反转 天佑德酒（002646.SZ）跟踪报告 青稞白酒销售承压依旧。公司 2024 年第二季度到 2025 年第一季度连续四 个季度收入负增长，2025 第二季度收入 2.42 亿元，同比增长 3.92%，扭转 了季度收入连续负增长的势头。公司 2025 年三季度收入没有延续二季度的 正增长势头，转为负增长，显示销售压力较大。国家统计局数据显示，白酒 （折 65 度，商品量）产量单月值自 2024 年 7 月开始持续负增长，产量累计 值自 2024 年 11 月开始持续负增长。整个白酒行业的增长压力都很大，公司 难以避免受到行业的影响。公司通过一系列操作寻找收入增长点，比如进行 线下渠道建设，深挖潜力。 经营性现金流保持正流入。2025 年前三季度公司经营活动产生的现金流量 净额为 0.53 亿元，较上年同期增长 50.02%。最近五年，公司仅有 2021 年 经营活动产生的现金流量净额为负（-0.03 亿）。在行业不景气，收入增长承 压的情况下，公司仍可以保持经营性现金流为正，说明经营能力较强。 公司使用果味白酒产品触达年轻消费者的战略仍在执行。2025 年 28 度柠 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 17 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】行业主题基金专题研究（六）-主动篇：先进制造主题基金研究框 架及产品优选 本文构建主动型先进制造主题基金池。根据主动权益基金对制造行业的配 置、基金与先进制造概念的相关系数等标签划分，细分为均衡型/专注单一 赛道型制造基金、机器人/军工/汽车/新能源/智能驾驶/电池等概念主题基金。 综合定量定性指标、当下投资关注度，建议关注：1）机器人主题：永赢先 进制造智选、鹏华碳中和、平安先进制造、中航趋势领航等；2）军工主题： 长信国防军工、华夏军工安全、永赢高端装备智选等。 【证券Ⅱ】证券行业 2026 年度策略：步步向上，欣欣向荣 我们认为经济定调积极下资本市场上升趋势仍在，券商板块仍是年内不可多 得的相对低估+业绩同比高增的细分资产。在自营相对难以预测、叠加增量 资金持续入市带动 ADT 中枢高企下，我们认为当前经纪主线是不错的选择， 推荐国泰海通、华泰证券、东方证券、国信证券、广发证券，建议关注方正 证券；此外，推荐受益于权益市场活跃的九方智投控股、有望通过换股吸收 大智慧实现增长的湘财股份、持续受益于港股 IPO 回暖的中金公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 23.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%. However, net income decreased by 27.8% to 1.286 billion yuan [1][4]. - The net revenue from second-hand housing transaction services fell by 3.6% to 6 billion yuan, while new housing transaction services saw a decline of 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.286 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with cash and short-term investments totaling 55.7 billion yuan, and continued share repurchases amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 23.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. The total transaction value (GTV) was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin decreased to 21.4%, down from 22.7% in the same period last year, primarily due to reduced contributions from second-hand and new housing transaction services [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 5.601 billion yuan, with a decline of 22.3% expected in 2025 [11]. Future Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93.62 billion yuan, 92.83 billion yuan, and 96.16 billion yuan, respectively [11]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is forecasted to be 0.71 USD, 0.97 USD, and 1.10 USD, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.5X, 17.2X, and 15.3X [2][11]. Market Position - The company is recognized for its leading position in the market, and its scarcity as an investment target supports the "Buy" rating [2][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [5] Core Insights - The rise of Scale-up architecture is driven by the increasing demand for high-speed interconnects due to the growth of large model parameters and the need for unified computing units formed by connecting multiple GPUs [1][13] - The Scale-up switch market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of nearly $6 billion by 2025 and a 5-year CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2030 [1][68] Summary by Sections Scale-up Supernodes: Breaking Through Single Card Computing Bottlenecks - The demand for larger parameter scales in large language models necessitates the expansion of computing clusters, which can significantly enhance model output accuracy and performance [13] - Cross-node communication requirements are heightened due to the use of tensor parallelism and expert parallelism technologies [17] Overview of Mainstream Supernode Systems - NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 supernode connects 36 Grace CPUs and 72 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs using NVLink technology, achieving high bandwidth and low latency [31][32] - Google's seventh-generation TPU Ironwood can scale up to 9216 chips, achieving peak performance of 4614 TFLOPS [35][36] - Amazon's Trainium2 server interconnects 64 chips through NeuronLink, ensuring low latency and high bandwidth communication [45][48] - Huawei's CloudMatrix384 supernode is designed for large-scale AI workloads, achieving 300 PFLOPS of BF16 computing power [49][52] Beneficiaries of Scale-up Network Demand - High-end switching chips and interface chips are expected to see increased demand due to the customized networks required for Scale-up architecture [3] - The integration of hardware and software in supernode systems is likely to enhance the value-added services of hardware manufacturers [56] - The demand for short-distance high-speed copper connections is strong, while optical interconnects are gradually being integrated into Scale-up networks [3] Focus Areas - Key companies to watch include: - Interconnect & Switching Chips: Sanken Communication, Lattice Semiconductor, and Wantong Development [4] - Network Equipment: ZTE, Ruijie Networks, and Unisplendour [4] - Optical Interconnect: Zhongji Xuchuang, New Easy, and Tianfu Communication [4] - Copper Interconnect: Ruikeda, Shenyu Co., and Wolker Materials [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards the North Exchange market, particularly in the new energy sector, suggesting a potential for growth and investment opportunities [4][27]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 23.87 billion yuan on November 13, 2025, an increase of 3.952 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1529.62, up 2.62% [8][4]. - A total of 282 companies were listed on the North Exchange, with 229 stocks rising, 9 remaining flat, and 44 declining. The top five gainers included Tianhong Lithium Battery (30.0%), Meideng Technology (13.6%), and Derui Lithium Battery (12.1%) [18][4]. - The report highlights that the new energy industry chain performed strongly, with significant contributions from lithium battery chemicals and diversified chemical sectors, indicating a robust market interest [4][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On November 13, 2025, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 23.87 billion yuan, marking a 39.52 billion yuan increase from the previous day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1529.62, reflecting a 2.62% increase, with a PE_TTM of 72.59 [8][4]. - The North Exchange specialized index closed at 2531.88, up 1.86% [8]. Stock Performance - Among the 282 companies, 229 saw an increase in stock prices, while 44 experienced declines. The top five gainers were Tianhong Lithium Battery (30.0%), Meideng Technology (13.6%), and Derui Lithium Battery (12.1%) [18][4]. - Conversely, the top five decliners included Ruixing Co. (-4.7%) and Chicheng Co. (-3.5%) [18][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the North Exchange market is experiencing heightened activity, driven by increased investor interest in the new energy sector. The report emphasizes the long-term investment value of companies in specialized and innovative sectors [4][27]. - The report notes that the global monetary easing cycle continues, favoring small-cap stocks, which aligns with the characteristics of companies listed on the North Exchange [4].