晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心结论 分析师 【北交所】北交所日报——20260225：温和上涨，关注金三银四和两会政 策预期 zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,146.63 | -0.01 | | 深证成指 | 14,503.79 | 0.19 | | 沪深 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19 | | 上证 180 | 10,389.00 | -0.16 | | 中小板指 | 8,841.13 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | 3,344.98 | -0.29 | 资料来源：聚源 主要海外市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 49,499.20 | 0.03 | | 标普 500 | 6,908.86 | -0.54 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,878.38 | -1.18 | 资料来源：聚源 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 ...

行业日报 | 北交所 温和上涨，关注金三银四和两会政策预期 北交所日报——20260225 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：2 月 25 日北证 A 股成交金额达 186.56 亿元，较 上一交易日增加 22.77 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1,547.201，上涨 0.77%， PE_TTM 为 65.09 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2,597.61，上涨 1.22%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 294 家公司中 208 家上涨，6 家平盘，80 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：同辉信息（10.3%）、安达科技（8.2%）、天 力复合（6.3%）、纳科诺尔（6.3%）、恒合股份（6.1%）；跌幅前五的个 股分别为：连城数控（-7.1%）、科力股份（-5.9%）、视声智能（-3.5%）、 蘅东光（-3.5%）、戈碧迦（-3.3%）。 新闻汇总：1）数据中心没钱、定制芯片落后："新秀"OpenAI 正努力追 赶老牌巨头：OpenAI 的星际之门项目因资金问题受挫，导致其战略重心转 向掌控数据中心内部资源而非拥有实体资产；此外，OpenAI 在定制芯片问 题上落后于其他科技巨头，其于 2025 年 ...

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end equipment and new materials that align with national industrial upgrading trends, while monitoring market liquidity and the impact of main board hot spots on the capital flow of the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][5]. Domestic Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,147.23, up by 0.72% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,475.87, up by 1.29% - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,735.89, up by 0.60% - The Shanghai 180 Index closed at 10,405.99, up by 0.53% - The SME Index closed at 8,787.92, up by 1.12% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,354.82, up by 1.41% [2]. Industry Review - On February 24, the trading volume of the Beijing Stock Exchange A-shares reached 16.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.057 billion yuan from the previous trading day - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,535.432, up by 0.37%, with a PE_TTM of 64.51 times - The specialized and innovative index closed at 2,566.43, up by 0.36% - Among 294 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, 242 saw their stock prices rise, 4 remained flat, and 48 experienced declines [3]. News Summary - The report highlights a potential price increase in MLCCs, with major manufacturers like Murata and Samsung Electronics considering double-digit price hikes due to rising demand from AI infrastructure investments - The Ministry of Commerce has placed 20 Japanese entities under export control to safeguard national security [4]. Investment Recommendations - The market is currently driven by "resource price increases" and "technology growth," with cyclical sectors like oil, petrochemicals, and precious metals leading the gains - Companies in the phosphorus chemical and industrial metal supply chains on the Beijing Stock Exchange may benefit from price elasticity - The technology sector shows divergence, with AI computing hardware performing well ahead of the NVIDIA GTC conference, while AI applications face challenges post-Spring Festival - The report suggests focusing on high-end equipment and new materials that align with national industrial upgrading, while keeping an eye on market liquidity and the rotation of main board hot spots affecting capital flow to the Beijing Stock Exchange [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [26]. Core Insights - The market focus is on "resource price increases" and "technology growth," with cyclical sectors like oil, petrochemicals, and precious metals leading the gains due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal agricultural policies [3][19]. - The North Exchange is expected to benefit from new productivity policies and price elasticity in resource commodities, particularly in high-end equipment and new materials that align with national industrial upgrade directions [3][19]. - The report highlights a significant increase in MLCC prices, with major manufacturers like Murata and Samsung planning double-digit price hikes due to rising demand from AI infrastructure investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On February 24, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 16.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.057 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1,535.432, up 0.37% [8][13]. - Among 294 companies listed on the North Exchange, 242 saw their stock prices rise, 4 remained flat, and 48 experienced declines [15][16]. Key Company Announcements - Mingyang Technology reported a revenue of 389.60 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 82.14 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.81% [19]. - Yisheng Precision announced a revenue of 35.19 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.50%, with a net profit of 5.99 million yuan, up 10.70% [20][21]. - The report also mentions other companies like Iron Big Technology and Digital Human, which reported significant revenue growth due to market expansion and project completions [22][23].

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of using "order-cancellation time difference" to identify institutional trading behavior, suggesting that this method is more effective than relying solely on order amounts in the current algorithmic trading environment [2][6][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Buy Algorithm Trading Cancellation Ratio (BABR) factor, which has shown a RankIC of 0.058 and an ICIR close to 0.55, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection [10][11] - The report indicates that the BABR factor can capture the behavior and holdings of public funds, providing a high-frequency tracking method for institutional behavior [10][11] Group 2: Company Analysis - Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) - Chow Tai Fook is transitioning from a traditional gold and jewelry retailer to a luxury brand centered around "Fuk Culture," with a focus on high-margin priced jewelry, which has increased its retail value share from 27.4% to 31.8% in FY26 [12][14] - The company has optimized its channel strategy by closing low-efficiency stores and opening high-quality ones, resulting in a significant increase in sales per new store, with average monthly sales reaching 1.3 to 1.4 million HKD [13][14] - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit margin reached a five-year high in the first half of FY26, with expectations for continued improvement in gross margin due to pricing strategies and product price increases [14] Group 3: Industry Insights - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a regulatory shake-up, which may benefit established brands like Chow Tai Fook, allowing them to expand their advantages amid increasing market concentration [14] - The report forecasts Chow Tai Fook's net profit for FY2026-2028 to be 83.58, 98.41, and 108.56 billion HKD, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.2, 13.7, and 12.5, respectively, leading to an upgraded rating to "Buy" [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Travel increased significantly during the Spring Festival in 2026, with 5.5 billion cross - regional trips during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, a 6% year - on - year increase. The daily flow exceeded 300 million after February 18, and approached 400 million on February 22 [1][11]. - Policies such as "Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival" drove strong consumption. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025. The passenger flow and turnover of 78 key pedestrian streets (business districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively in the first three days of the holiday [1][14]. - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA tariffs illegal, but Trump ordered a 15% tariff on all imported goods. The U.S. Q4 GDP growth rate was only 1.4%, and the core PCE was 3%, higher than the previous value [1][19]. - During the Spring Festival, most major global assets rose. Crude oil and natural gas in commodities increased significantly, and the stock markets in South Korea, the Eurozone, and the UK rose by 5.5%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Hong Kong stock market underperformed, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 2.8% [2][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. The 10Y Treasury bond rate broke below 1.8% before the holiday, and the further downward space of interest rates is limited. It is recommended to focus on coupon strategies and opportunities for narrowing spreads [2][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - Before the holiday, institutional willingness to hold bonds increased, and the central bank's net injection led to a decline in bond yields. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp and 0.5bp respectively. The bond market showed different trends on different days of the week [10]. - The Spring Festival travel rush had a large passenger flow, and consumption was strong. Movie box office and real - estate sales had different performances. Overseas, the U.S. economy slowed down, and inflation remained high [11][14][19]. - The capital market remained stable, and the bond market may fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to policy expectations during the Two Sessions, external tariff changes, and the equity market [20]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Market - The central bank's net injection before the holiday was 139.69 billion yuan. After the holiday, the maturity volume of reverse repurchase was larger. The capital interest rate decreased, and the 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate and FR007 - 1Y swap rate showed different trends [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields declined before the holiday. Except for the 3m Treasury bond, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds decreased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds widened [38]. - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the negative spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened. The spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly [40]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of February 14, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds decreased, the 50Y - 30Y and 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spreads widened, the inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.3%, the exchange leverage ratio increased to 123.5%, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds increased slightly. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [45]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds increased before the holiday. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - financial bonds increased. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase in the last week of February, and that of local bonds will decrease [61][64][65]. - The inter - bank certificate of deposit changed from net financing to net repayment before the holiday, and the average issuance rate decreased slightly [66]. 3.3 Economic Data - The Spring Festival month - shift affected the CPI decline, and the PPI improved year - on - year. The financial data in January had a stable start [70]. - Since February, movie consumption was weaker than the seasonal level, and the freight rate index improved marginally. Real - estate transactions were weak, and industrial production weakened marginally [71]. - Recent infrastructure and price high - frequency data showed that production indicators decreased month - on - month, and most price indicators weakened [75]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. core PCE returned to 3%, and the economic growth rate slowed down. The Fed had different views on future policies [80]. - The U.S. bond market declined, and emerging markets had more declines than increases. The spread between Chinese and U.S. 10Y Treasury bonds narrowed [81][83]. 3.5 Major Assets - The CSI 300 index rose slightly before the holiday. Shanghai gold rose, and the Nanhua crude oil index adjusted. The performance of major assets was: CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > Convertible bonds > CSI 300 > Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds > China bonds > Shanghai copper > Rebar > U.S. dollar > Live pigs > Crude oil [87]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - There are reverse repurchase maturities, MLF maturities, and government bond issuances from February 24 to February 28. There are also important economic data releases and corporate earnings calls during this period [92].

Core Insights - The report proposes a method to identify institutional trading behavior through the "order-cancellation time difference," emphasizing the importance of this approach in the context of algorithmic trading becoming the mainstream execution method for institutions [1][10] - The Buy Algorithmic Cancellation Ratio (BABR) factor demonstrates strong stock selection performance, with an annualized return of 27.8% for long-short portfolios [2][42] - The BABR factor aligns closely with the investment style of public funds, indicating its potential to track institutional behavior and holdings effectively [3][45] Algorithmic Trading Cancellation Identification - The report highlights that cancellation behavior is more revealing of algorithmic trading characteristics than the order itself, with significant pulse-like concentrations observed in cancellation statistics [1][17] - A method is developed to identify algorithmic trading cancellations based on specific time intervals, particularly focusing on cancellations occurring at discrete time points [22][24] Algorithmic Cancellation Ratio Factors - Two key factors are constructed: Algorithmic Cancellation Volume Ratio (ACVR) and Algorithmic Cancellation Counts Ratio (ACCR), both measuring the proportion of algorithmic cancellations relative to total cancellations [28][30] - The ACCR factor shows improved performance metrics, with an IC of 0.051 and an annualized return of 25.1% for long-short portfolios, indicating a strong correlation with institutional trading behavior [32][33] Buy Algorithmic Cancellation Ratio Factor - The BABR factor, which measures the ratio of buy algorithmic cancellations to total cancellations, shows superior stock selection performance compared to the original ACCR factor, with an IC of 0.058 [42][44] - The BABR factor's performance is consistent with the overall performance of public funds, suggesting its utility in capturing institutional trading dynamics [45][48] Factor Characteristics and Correlations - The BABR factor exhibits distinct style exposures, preferring high valuation, high elasticity, and low financial leverage stocks, with a correlation of 0.59 to the Wind Mixed Equity Fund Index [3][49] - The factor's performance is influenced by market capitalization, with a slight negative correlation to log market value, indicating a potential small-cap bias [49]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report discusses how AI deflation and balance sheet reduction could reshape asset pricing logic, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1][6][7] - It highlights the potential impact of reducing the Fed's balance sheet on dollar asset prices and the importance of maintaining central bank independence [1][6][7] Group 2: Company Analysis - Huahong Semiconductor (688347.SH) - Huahong is projected to achieve revenues of 183.83 billion, 246.57 billion, and 284.07 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 6.74 billion, 7.78 billion, and 11.29 billion CNY respectively [2][12] - The company is positioned as a leader in mature process semiconductor manufacturing, benefiting from the global semiconductor industry's recovery [12][13] - Huahong's expansion plans include the ramp-up of FAB9 and the integration of FAB5, which is expected to enhance future growth potential [12][14] Group 3: Company Analysis - Valiant Bio (9887.HK) - Valiant Bio focuses on three core technology platforms targeting oncology and autoimmune diseases, with significant clinical trials underway [3][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 175.0 million, 196.0 million, and 200.8 million HKD, with a projected increase in profitability as clinical data catalysts emerge [3][16][17] Group 4: Company Analysis - Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ) - Ningbo Huaxiang is expected to see net profits of 5.19 billion, 16.10 billion, and 17.56 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a target market value of 402.39 billion CNY by 2026 [4][18] - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector and is anticipated to improve profitability following the divestment of European assets [18][19] Group 5: Industry Insights - Hotel and Catering - The report indicates a significant increase in travel and service consumption during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic tourism expected to reach 520 million trips, a 3.8% increase year-on-year [25][26] - The catering sector is benefiting from increased customer flow, particularly in first-tier cities, with notable growth in restaurant bookings and sales during the holiday period [26][27] Group 6: Industry Insights - Gas Turbine - The gas turbine industry is experiencing robust demand, with Siemens Energy reporting record order volumes and plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2027 [29][30][31] - Major companies like GE and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are also reporting substantial order growth, indicating a strong market outlook for gas turbines [30][31][32] Group 7: Industry Insights - Tooling Industry - The report highlights a rapid increase in tungsten carbide prices, benefiting leading domestic tooling companies amid supply constraints and rising demand in high-value sectors [35][36][37] - The Chinese government's export controls on tungsten resources are expected to further enhance the competitive position of domestic tooling manufacturers [35][37]

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for humanoid robots, AI applications, innovative drugs, and new consumption sectors [5][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth potential in humanoid robots, with a projected shipment of nearly 18,000 units globally by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 508% [5]. - AI applications are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's initiative to build a national computing network [5]. - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a shift towards platform capabilities, as evidenced by a significant partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at over $8 billion [9]. - New consumption trends are emerging, with adjustments in CPI statistics reflecting the inclusion of new categories such as dishwashers and medical beauty services [5]. Summary by Category Humanoid Robots - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Medium, stable growth anticipated - Key Data: IDC forecasts a shipment of nearly 18,000 humanoid robots by 2025, a 508% increase year-on-year [5]. AI Applications - Rating: Neutral + Overweight - Technical Indicators: Weak, but stabilizing - Growth Expectation: Medium, slight downward adjustment expected - Key Data: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the construction of a national computing network [5]. Innovative Drugs - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Low, upward revision expected - Key Data: Significant partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at over $8 billion, marks a new phase in China's innovative drug export strategy [9]. New Consumption - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Low, stable growth anticipated - Key Data: CPI adjustments include new consumption categories, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [5].

Economic Outlook - The 2026 National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to set the economic growth target at around 5%[9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2026 is anticipated to remain at approximately 2%[9] - The fiscal deficit rate is likely to be maintained at around 4%[12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions depending on economic growth and inflation trends[15] - The central bank's actions in 2025 included a 0.1 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR[15] Domestic Demand and Innovation - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are prioritized government tasks for 2026[16] - The government aims to promote technological innovation and the development of artificial intelligence as key focuses for the year[22] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, a downturn in the real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions[36]