晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 04 日 核心结论 分析师 【通信】硅光模块行业深度报告：AI 驱动高成长，从物理结构和产业链视 角拆解硅光投资机会 投资建议：技术升级上，率先进入硅光光模块大批量量产的公司有望享受行 业加速期的高毛利，以及受益于行业份额的巩固和聚拢。供需关系上，头部 硅光模块厂商有望得到供应链端的供应优先保障，核心物料如硅光芯片、CW 光源等环节的厂商有望加速国产替代，实现份额突破。 【北交所】北交所市场点评——20251202：震荡整固，关注商业航天、AI 手机 中长期来看，随着"十五五"规划对专精特新、未来产业的重点支持，叠加 北交所对创新型中小企业的资源配置优化，新能源、新材料、高端装备等具 备高研发投入与技术壁垒的赛道仍具配置价值 | | | 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,878.00 | -0.51 | | 深证成指 | 12,955.25 | -0.78 | | 沪深 300 | 4,531.05 | -0.51 | | 上证 180 | 9,833.61 | -0.34 ...

行业日报 | 北交所 震荡整固，关注商业航天、AI 手机 北交所市场点评——20251202 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：12 月 2 日北证 A 股成交金额达 139.4 亿元，较上 一交易日减少 16.6 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1398.13，下降 0.76%， PE_TTM 为 66.23 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2343.26，下降 0.84%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 286 家公司中 34 家上涨，5 家平盘，247 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：昆工科技（7.1%）、龙竹科技（6.7%）、路 桥信息（5.8%）、戈碧迦（4.6%）、海希通讯（4.4%）；跌幅前五的个股 分别为：迪尔化工（-6.0%）、恒合股份（-5.2%）、则成电子（-4.5%）、 泓禧科技（-4.1%）、惠丰钻石-4.0%）。 新闻汇总：1）多地出台债券融资奖补政策，一地发行科创债可获补贴 40 万 元：据企业预警通不完全统计，年内广西、四川、江苏、山东等地相继推出 债券融资奖补政策，覆盖科技创新债券、绿色债券、乡村振兴债等多个专项 品种，地方支持方式也从单一费用补贴拓展为"费用减免+利息贴息+担 ...

证券研究报告 AI驱动高成长，从物理结构和产业链视角拆解 硅光投资机会 ——硅光模块行业深度报告 西部证券研发中心 2025年12月3日 分析师| 陈彤 S0800522100004 chentong@research.xbmail.com.cn 分析师| 张璟 S0800525040005 zhangjing@research.xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 引言：2025年以来，受益于AI算力需求持续增长，光模块行业维持高景气。一方面，硅光光模块凭借高集成度、低能耗、 低成本的优点，逐渐受到终端客户认可，另一方面，在EML方案原材料短缺下，硅光方案成为重点产能供给补充。本篇报 告是我们光模块系列报告第一篇，从硅光技术视角，重新梳理光模块结构件及产业链核心环节，拆解硅光投资机会。 硅光技术概况、产业节奏及发展趋势：硅光集成技术是以硅基衬底材料作为光学介质，通过互补金属氧化物半导体兼容的集 成电路工艺制造相应的光子器件和光电器件，并利用这些器件对光子进行发射、传输、检测和处理，以实现其在光通信、光 计算等领域的实际应用。当前硅光技术处于发集成与应用阶段，更高速率、更高集成度、先进封装及更广阔的应用领域是 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 03 日 核心结论 【固定收益】11月 PMI 数据点评：价格改善加速,制造业 PMI 收缩放缓 11 月制造业 PMI 收缩放缓,其中产需同步好转,价格指数改善加速,采购 收缩放缓。同时,服务业落入收缩区间,建筑业连续４个月位于荣枯线以下, 仍需加码推进各项稳经济政策措施。 【房地产】百强房企 11 月销售数据点评：销售如期下滑,政策预期再起 11 月百强房企销售额及销售面积环比下降,同比跌幅缩小,去年四季度的 高基数叠加未有行业政策出台,导致今年同比跌幅较大。随着市场出现走弱 迹象，政策端宽松预期渐强，建议关注板块政策博弈机会。 【医药生物】华润三九(000999.SZ)跟踪点评:内涵外延双轮驱动,经营 韧性强劲 我们预计公司 2025/2026/2027 年归母净利润分别为 32.95/38.43/42.68 亿 元,分别同比-2.2%/+16.6%/+11.1%。考虑到公司具有较强的品牌价值和在 中药配方颗粒的先发优势,外延+内涵双轮驱动成长动能充足,给予"买入" 评级。 【美容护理】华熙生物（688363.SH）跟踪点评：主业承压,结构优化,科 技平台 ...

行业点评 | 房地产 销售如期下滑，政策预期再起 百强房企 11 月销售数据点评 Top100 销售额同比下降 36.8%，环比下降 11.7%。据克而瑞研究中心数据， 2025 年 11 月，Top100 房企当月全口径销售金额同比下降 36.8%，跌幅较 上月减小 3.8pct，环比下降 11.7%，逐步进入销售淡季，市场下行压力有所 增强；Top100 房企当月全口径销售面积同比下滑 35.8%，降幅减小 4.16pct， 环比减小 5.6%；权益口径销售额同比下降 36.0%，降幅减小 5.6pct，环比 下降 8.3%。 Top3房企当月同比跌幅最小。2025年1-11月，行业Top3/Top4-10/Top11-20/ Top21-50/Top51-100 全 口 径 累 计 销 售 额 增 速 分 别 为 -20.2%/-14.4%/ -22.3%/-19.3%/-19.7%。11 月当月行业 Top3/Top4-10/Top11-20/Top21-50/ Top51-100 全 口 径 销 售 额 增 速 分 别 为 -20.7%/-37.0%/-39.9%/-47.2%/ -38.8%，To ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a strong expected return over the next 6-12 months [5][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 21.986 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.353 billion yuan, down 20.51% year-on-year [1][5]. - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business shows resilience despite facing pressures from a decline in respiratory disease incidence and adjustments in retail channels. The company has launched several new products under the 999 brand, enhancing its market position [1][2]. - The company is focusing on both internal and external growth strategies, with a clear emphasis on the CHC sector and strategic mergers and acquisitions to enhance operational efficiency and brand value [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 24.739 billion yuan in 2023, 27.617 billion yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 31.073 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023 and 11.6% in 2024 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.853 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 3.368 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.5% in 2023 and 18.1% in 2024 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.71 yuan in 2023, increasing to 2.02 yuan in 2024 [3][10]. Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on the CHC sector while collaborating with Tian Shili and Kun Yao to enhance management and product pipelines, aiming for a clearer strategic direction and improved performance [2][5]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to innovation in the prescription drug sector, focusing on core areas and exploring diverse opportunities for product acquisition [2][5].

事件： 11 月制造业 PMI 收缩放缓，其中产需同步好转，价格指数改善加速， 采购收缩放缓。同时，服务业落入收缩区间，建筑业连续 4 个月位于荣枯线 以下，仍需加码推进各项稳经济政策措施。11 月制造业采购经理指数为 49.2%，环比上升 0.2 个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 49.5%，环比下 降 0.6 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7%，环比下降 0.3 个百分点。 固定收益点评报告 价格改善加速，制造业 PMI 收缩放缓 11 月 PMI 数据点评 核心结论 | | 姜珮珊 S0800524020002 | | --- | --- | | | jiangpeishan@research.xbmail.com.cn | | 联系人 | | 点评：11 月债市在缺乏政策及基本面强劲驱动的情况下，再次陷入"上有 顶、下有底"的震荡格局。经过 10 月对政策预期及央行重启买债等主线的 充分交易后，年末债市天然呈现出"落袋为安"心态占主导的局面，"抄底" 意愿相对减弱。整体来看，11 月债市在缺乏政策及基本面强劲驱动的情况下， 再次陷入"上有顶、下有底"的震荡格局，趋势性方向不甚明朗，多数机构 ...

核心结论 分析师 【通信】卫星互联网行业动态跟踪：顶层规划与产业链俱备，运力突破东风 将至 商业火箭运力的突破是我国商业航天产业拐点和资本市场趋势形成的关键 变量，我们认为明年我国航天运力大幅提升具有较高的确定性，坚定看好商 业航天产业及各细分领域核心标的订单释放。 周颖 S0800520080003 zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,914.01 | 0.65 | | 深证成指 | 13,146.72 | 1.25 | | 沪深 300 | 4,576.49 | 1.10 | | 上证 180 | 9,928.24 | 1.08 | | 中小板指 | 8,008.75 | 1.40 | | 创业板指 | 3,092.50 | 1.31 | 晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 02 日 资料来源：聚源 主要海外市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 47,289.33 | -0 ...

晨会纪要 核心结论 【固定收益】2026年债市展望系列之二：2026年宏观利率展望 2026年坚持高质量发展,预计继续实施积极财政政策,保持一定支出强度, 央行降息 10-20BP,降准或为 1 次,降准降息保持谨慎,综合使用多种工具 保持实质宽松:投资、消费预计温和回升,通胀回升或是债市最大的不确定 性,预计 PPI 跌幅持续收窄,CPI 同比或将回正，增长 0.4%左右;央行精 准调控下,资金价格窄幅震荡,10年期国债税后利率围绕 1.7%-1.9%震荡, 中债估值 1.75-1.95%。 【证券川】证券瞭望系列一：并购重组浪潮来袭，国际一流投行渐行渐近 本轮并购重组未来展望:尽管 2025年以来证券行业新增并购较少,但监管 政策指导下我们认为行业供给侧改革趋势或将延续,行业并购重组或会继续 发生。在可能性上,我们认为同一股东下或同一区域内的股权划转仍是可行 性相对较高的操作方式。 风险提示:资本市场改革进度不及预期、资本市场波动风险、行业竞争加剧 风险、统计样本过小带来的结论可靠性风险。 【房地产】房地产行业 2026 年投资策略:高质量发展时代开启 引领行业 再平衡 1)优质房企盈利修复报表改善,推荐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economic main - line adheres to high - quality development, emphasizing new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, and focusing on expanding domestic demand. The policy framework aims at structural adjustment, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. An active fiscal policy will continue, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates by 10 - 20BP and reduce the reserve requirement ratio once. Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately, and inflation recovery is the biggest uncertainty in the bond market. The after - tax interest rate of 10 - year treasury bonds will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" Adheres to High - Quality Development, Balancing Development and Security - **External Environment and Goal Orientation**: The "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" period faces a more uncertain external environment, with strategic opportunities coexisting with risks and challenges. The goal is to achieve a moderately developed level of per capita GDP by 2035, and the GDP of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" and "Sixteenth Five - Year Plan" periods needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%. The development main - line is centered around economic construction, with high - quality development as the theme and reform and innovation as the driving force [8][21]. - **Supply - and - Demand - Side Joint Efforts**: The supply side focuses on new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, while the demand side aims to boost consumption and expand effective investment. In the short term, the economic fundamentals need to be consolidated, but the 2025 target is not difficult to achieve [23][24][27]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Boosts Domestic Demand, and Monetary Policy Continues the New Model - **Macro Policy Framework**: China has formed a complete macro - policy framework aiming at structural transformation, coordinating multiple policies to promote sustainable economic growth and adjust the economic structure [32]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The active fiscal policy will continue, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment. The estimated deficit rates of 4% and 4.5% may result in deficit scales of 6 trillion and 6.7 trillion yuan respectively. The government will also continue to promote debt resolution [34][35][40]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will use interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts cautiously, with an expected interest rate cut of 10 - 20BP and a single reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026. It will adopt a new model of combining cautious use of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts with active use of structural tools to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [43][46]. 3.3 Investment Focuses More on Efficiency, and Inflation May Continuously Improve - **Investment**: In 2026, investment will increase, with a focus on efficiency and concentration in key projects, regions, and industries. Real estate is expected to remain at a low level, infrastructure investment will be targeted, and manufacturing investment will focus on new - quality productivity [54][57][63]. - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to continue to improve, with consumer confidence rising and the special treasury bond expenditure for trade - in programs likely to be no less than 300 billion yuan in 2026 [66]. - **Inflation**: The decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow, and CPI may turn positive, growing by about 0.4% in 2026 [71]. 3.4 Liquidity and Interest Rate Outlook - **Funding**: The central bank will maintain stable and low - volatility funding prices, and the 10 - year treasury bond after - tax interest rate will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [11][75][103]. - **External Factors**: The Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle may lead to an increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness, which may affect liquidity. Deposit transfer may continue, increasing the bank's liability pressure [81][87]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In 2026, the 10 - year treasury bond will fluctuate around the policy rate, and the long - term interest rate is expected to remain volatile at a low level. The bond market will have low volatility, and the interest rate will maintain a low - level oscillation [97][103].