晨会纪要 核心结论 【固定收益】2026年债市展望系列之二：2026年宏观利率展望 2026年坚持高质量发展,预计继续实施积极财政政策,保持一定支出强度, 央行降息 10-20BP,降准或为 1 次,降准降息保持谨慎,综合使用多种工具 保持实质宽松:投资、消费预计温和回升,通胀回升或是债市最大的不确定 性,预计 PPI 跌幅持续收窄,CPI 同比或将回正，增长 0.4%左右;央行精 准调控下,资金价格窄幅震荡,10年期国债税后利率围绕 1.7%-1.9%震荡, 中债估值 1.75-1.95%。 【证券川】证券瞭望系列一：并购重组浪潮来袭，国际一流投行渐行渐近 本轮并购重组未来展望:尽管 2025年以来证券行业新增并购较少,但监管 政策指导下我们认为行业供给侧改革趋势或将延续,行业并购重组或会继续 发生。在可能性上,我们认为同一股东下或同一区域内的股权划转仍是可行 性相对较高的操作方式。 风险提示:资本市场改革进度不及预期、资本市场波动风险、行业竞争加剧 风险、统计样本过小带来的结论可靠性风险。 【房地产】房地产行业 2026 年投资策略:高质量发展时代开启 引领行业 再平衡 1)优质房企盈利修复报表改善,推荐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economic main - line adheres to high - quality development, emphasizing new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, and focusing on expanding domestic demand. The policy framework aims at structural adjustment, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. An active fiscal policy will continue, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates by 10 - 20BP and reduce the reserve requirement ratio once. Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately, and inflation recovery is the biggest uncertainty in the bond market. The after - tax interest rate of 10 - year treasury bonds will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" Adheres to High - Quality Development, Balancing Development and Security - **External Environment and Goal Orientation**: The "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" period faces a more uncertain external environment, with strategic opportunities coexisting with risks and challenges. The goal is to achieve a moderately developed level of per capita GDP by 2035, and the GDP of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" and "Sixteenth Five - Year Plan" periods needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%. The development main - line is centered around economic construction, with high - quality development as the theme and reform and innovation as the driving force [8][21]. - **Supply - and - Demand - Side Joint Efforts**: The supply side focuses on new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, while the demand side aims to boost consumption and expand effective investment. In the short term, the economic fundamentals need to be consolidated, but the 2025 target is not difficult to achieve [23][24][27]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Boosts Domestic Demand, and Monetary Policy Continues the New Model - **Macro Policy Framework**: China has formed a complete macro - policy framework aiming at structural transformation, coordinating multiple policies to promote sustainable economic growth and adjust the economic structure [32]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The active fiscal policy will continue, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment. The estimated deficit rates of 4% and 4.5% may result in deficit scales of 6 trillion and 6.7 trillion yuan respectively. The government will also continue to promote debt resolution [34][35][40]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will use interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts cautiously, with an expected interest rate cut of 10 - 20BP and a single reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026. It will adopt a new model of combining cautious use of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts with active use of structural tools to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [43][46]. 3.3 Investment Focuses More on Efficiency, and Inflation May Continuously Improve - **Investment**: In 2026, investment will increase, with a focus on efficiency and concentration in key projects, regions, and industries. Real estate is expected to remain at a low level, infrastructure investment will be targeted, and manufacturing investment will focus on new - quality productivity [54][57][63]. - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to continue to improve, with consumer confidence rising and the special treasury bond expenditure for trade - in programs likely to be no less than 300 billion yuan in 2026 [66]. - **Inflation**: The decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow, and CPI may turn positive, growing by about 0.4% in 2026 [71]. 3.4 Liquidity and Interest Rate Outlook - **Funding**: The central bank will maintain stable and low - volatility funding prices, and the 10 - year treasury bond after - tax interest rate will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [11][75][103]. - **External Factors**: The Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle may lead to an increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness, which may affect liquidity. Deposit transfer may continue, increasing the bank's liability pressure [81][87]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In 2026, the 10 - year treasury bond will fluctuate around the policy rate, and the long - term interest rate is expected to remain volatile at a low level. The bond market will have low volatility, and the interest rate will maintain a low - level oscillation [97][103].

Core Conclusions - The financial industry experienced a weekly increase of +0.68% in the non-bank financial index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [1] - The banking sector saw a decline of -0.59%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing varied performance [1][9] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index rose by +0.20%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points, driven by strong demand for dividend insurance products that align with residents' needs for stable returns and value appreciation [2][12] - Major insurance companies are focusing on dividend insurance as a strategic core, with product offerings expanding significantly ahead of the 2026 "opening red" period [2][12] - The growth of new single premiums is expected to be strong in 2026, supported by improved net present value margins (NBVM) and a favorable regulatory environment for dividend insurance [2][17] Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector index increased by +0.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.90 percentage points, with recent developments in refinancing for two brokerages indicating a cautious approach to capital raising [2][18] - The current environment presents a mismatch between profitability and valuation in the brokerage sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][19] - Recommendations include strong mid-to-large brokerages with low valuations and those involved in mergers or restructuring [2][19] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index decreased by -0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points, with a focus on high dividend strategies remaining viable [3][20] - The average dividend yield for banks is approximately 4.1%, which is attractive compared to other sectors, particularly in the context of a stable earnings outlook [3][21] - Recommendations include state-owned banks and resilient city commercial banks, with specific attention to banks with strong fundamentals and low volatility [3][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - 11 - month bond market was in a volatile pattern without strong policy and fundamental drivers, and 12 - month important meetings and key economic data will be key variables for market direction [2][9] - 12 - month stock market's impact on the bond market may weaken due to recent weak equity market performance and year - end institutional factors [2][9] - 12 - month interest rates are likely to decline, but the continuation of the calendar effect needs further information [2][10] - Market bulls still have concerns, and the year - end allocation market awaits the implementation of redemption rules [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 12 - month Bond Market Outlook - After 10 - month trading, the year - end bond market tends to be conservative. In November, the bond market was volatile, and future direction depends on 12 - month meetings and data [9] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market in December may weaken, and interest rates are likely to fall [2][9][10] - Market participants' concerns remain, and the start of the year - end allocation market depends on redemption rules [3][13] 11 - month Bond Market Review 2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - Throughout November, the 10Y treasury bond rate had different trends each week, influenced by various factors such as policies, data, and stock market performance [24][25] 2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 438 billion yuan. In November, the funding situation was generally balanced, with early convergence and month - end easing [26] 2.3 Secondary Market Performance - In November, bond yields fluctuated upwards. Most key - term treasury bond rates increased, and most term spreads widened [34] 2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In November, bond fund durations slightly decreased, and the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread significantly widened. Bank - to - bank leverage decreased, while exchange leverage increased [42] 2.5 Bond Supply - In November, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. The issuance scale of different types of bonds had various changes [52][53][57] Economic Data - In October, the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits slowed down. Since November, real - estate transactions have been weak year - on - year, while port throughput has been strong [63] Overseas Bond Market - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a decline in US consumer spending, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. US bonds rose, while bond markets in China, Japan, and South Korea fell [73][74] Major Asset Classes - In November, the Shanghai Gold Index strengthened, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the South China Pig Index weakened. The performance ranking of major asset classes was Shanghai Gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai Copper > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Convertible bonds > Crude oil > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Pig [79] Policy Summary - Multiple policies were introduced in November, covering areas such as real - estate investment trusts, medical insurance, science - finance cooperation, consumption support, and capital market reform. Future impacts of these policies need to be monitored [82][83][84]

西部研究月度金股报告系列（2025 年 12 月） 核心结论 1、全球流动性"盛宴"：泛滥的流动性将更加泛滥 本轮 A 股牛市并不特殊，只是 2020 年疫后大放水驱动的 6 年全球"大水牛"的一 部分。全球泛滥的流动性已经系统性重估了 3 类关键资产：黄金/美股科技/欧日制 造业。美国债务周期顶点，明年美联储大概率"大放水"化债，全球泛滥的流动性 将会更加泛滥。 2、跨境资本加速回流：中国优势制造将系统性重估 全球流动性泛滥已经系统性重估了黄金/美股科技/欧日制造业等关键资产。而中国 制造业的全球竞争优势明显高于欧日，跨境资本加速回流，中国制造业也将得到系 统性重估。我们基于 CAPEX 收缩+自由现金流修复+对外出口扩张，筛选出来的 中国优势制造业，主要集中在新能源/化工/医疗器械等领域。 3、盈利能否接棒牛市：消费 26 年有望"戴维斯双击" A 股整体来看，历史上较难出现连续 3 年估值扩张。2024 年和 2025 年 A 股连续 两年估值扩张后，2026 年 A 股要么盈利不兑现牛市震荡，要么盈利兑现牛市延续。 中国已进入工业化成熟期，投资很难成为盈利的驱动力；过去 6 年中国对外出口 持续高位， ...

工信部会议定调锂电"反内卷"，阿里云势头猛进重塑 AI 格局 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 电新行业周报 20251124-20251130 核心结论 工信部召开动力储能电池企业座谈会，定调"反内卷"有序竞争。11 月 28 日，工信部在北京 组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调要落实党中央整治锂电行业"内卷式" 竞争。电动车板块推荐天赐材料、珠海冠宇、特锐德、欣旺达、豪鹏科技，建议关注天际股份、 多氟多、富祥药业、华盛锂电、芳源股份、湖南裕能、万润新能。PCB 板块建议关注德福科 技、铜冠铜箔。固态电池板块推荐当升科技、三祥新材，关注泰和科技、宏工科技、海目星。 阿里云势头猛进，英伟达数据中心网络业务营收同比激增 162%。根据摩根士丹利最新 CIO 调 查，中国企业级 AI 市场正经历结构性转变：IT 预算持续扩张背景下，超大规模云厂商取代独 立模型开发商成为 B 端首选。根据最新调查，英特尔成为苹果先进制程供应商的可能性近期 显著提升。苹果计划最早于 2027 年第二至第三季度采用英特尔 18A 先进制程生产最低端 M 系 列处理器。AI 数据中心推荐四方股份、伊戈尔。建议 ...

Group 1: Defense and Military Trade Industry - The military trade industry is experiencing rapid growth in military spending, driven by geopolitical conflicts, leading to a reshaping of global supply and demand dynamics [6][7] - The U.S. remains the largest military spender, followed by China, with significant increases in military imports from the Asia-Pacific region and Europe [6][7] - China's military trade advantages include a comprehensive product range, fewer political conditions, and flexible transaction methods, positioning it well for international market opportunities [8][9] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Leap Motor - Leap Motor's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 19.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan and a gross margin of 14.5%, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [11][12] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 64 billion, 102.4 billion, and 131.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 99%, 60%, and 28% respectively [13] - Leap Motor's global expansion is evident with a significant increase in overseas terminal orders, and the company has established over 700 sales and service outlets internationally [12][13] Group 3: Electric Equipment Industry - Liangxin Co. - Liangxin Co. reported a revenue of 3.507 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.23%, but faced a decline in net profit due to changes in sales structure and pricing pressures [15][16] - The company is focusing on AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) and overseas markets, with expectations of net profits growing to 409 million, 526 million, and 663 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [16][19] - Liangxin Co. is actively developing products for data centers, aiming to enhance its market presence and brand influence in this sector [16] Group 4: Electric Equipment Industry - Hongfa Co. - Hongfa Co. achieved a revenue of 12.914 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 1.470 billion yuan, reflecting stable performance and capacity utilization [18][19] - The company is transitioning from single components to modular solutions in the automotive sector, which is expected to enhance its market share and product value [18] - Future growth opportunities are anticipated in the AIDC sector, with a focus on high-voltage direct current relays and modular solutions for data centers [19] Group 5: Electric Equipment Industry - Trina Solar - Trina Solar reported a revenue of 49.97 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net loss of 4.201 billion yuan, although showing signs of improvement in its component business [21][22] - The company aims to significantly increase its storage business output, targeting 8 GWh for 2025 and doubling it in 2026, supported by strong overseas orders [22] - Trina Solar's operational scale in maintenance services is expected to contribute to stable profit growth as its installed capacity increases [22] Group 6: Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors - XPeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a gross margin of 20.1% [24][25] - The company is advancing its global strategy with local production projects in Indonesia and Austria, and has launched its second-generation VLA model for smart driving [25] - XPeng Motors forecasts Q4 2025 deliveries between 125,000 and 132,000 units, with total revenue expected to reach 21.5 to 23 billion yuan [25]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [8] Core Insights - The military trade industry is experiencing rapid growth due to increasing military expenditures and evolving supply-demand dynamics driven by geopolitical conflicts [5][11] - The demand for military products is shifting, with aircraft being the primary focus, an increase in missile demand, and a promising outlook for unmanned equipment [6][11] - China is strategically expanding its military trade, focusing on systematic output and seizing overseas opportunities [6][11] Summary by Sections Military Expenditure Growth - Global military spending has increased for ten consecutive years, with a projected rise to $27,180 billion in 2024, reflecting a 9.36% increase from 2023 [20][24] - The military burden, defined as military spending as a percentage of global GDP, is expected to rise to 2.46% in 2024 [20] - The U.S. leads in military spending, projected at $997.31 billion in 2024, while China ranks second with $313.66 billion [24] Military Trade Demand - The Asia-Pacific region has the highest import volume, while Europe shows the fastest growth in military imports [25][29] - Ukraine has emerged as the largest arms importer due to the ongoing conflict, with imports increasing nearly 100-fold from 2015-2019 levels [37][41] - India remains the second-largest arms importer, although its reliance on Russian arms is decreasing [48] Military Trade Supply - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in the global arms market, with its exports accounting for 46.69% of the total military trade volume in 2024 [60] - The top five arms exporting countries from 2020-2024 are the U.S., France, Russia, China, and Germany, with the U.S. significantly increasing its market share [54][60] - Russia's arms exports have declined sharply due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions, dropping to 4.63% of global exports in 2024 [68] Key Companies in the Industry - The top 100 defense companies generated $632 billion in revenue in 2023, with U.S. firms accounting for a significant portion [72] - Lockheed Martin is highlighted as a leading defense contractor, with a projected revenue of $71.04 billion in 2024, primarily from U.S. government contracts [77][80]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [23] Core Insights - The market is experiencing low trading volumes and weak consolidation, with a focus on fundamental and mid-to-long-term logic [1] - On November 26, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 14.009 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.164 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1391.00, down 0.42% [2][9] - The report highlights a significant divergence in market hotspots, with high turnover thematic stocks and specialized innovative companies showing active performance [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - On November 26, 284 companies listed on the North Exchange saw 61 rise, 5 remain flat, and 218 decline [16] - The top five gainers were Zhu Laoliu (up 13.2%), Hongxi Technology (up 10.8%), Kaide Quartz (up 5.3%), Xin Ganjiang (up 5.2%), and Dapeng Industrial (up 4.1%) [16] - The top five decliners were Deer Chemical (down 7.3%), Rongyi Precision (down 6.5%), Boxun Biology (down 6.0%), *ST Yunchuang (down 5.8%), and Luqiao Information (down 5.5%) [16] Important News - Six departments issued a significant document aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [3] - The "Infrastructure Classification" draft for comments is expected to accelerate the integration of vehicle-road-cloud systems into the standard system [19] Key Company Announcements - Vision Intelligence reported a reduction in shareholding by major shareholders, decreasing from 56.94% to 55.93% [20] - Jianbang Technology received a patent for a vehicle wiper assembly control system [21] - Boxun Biology obtained three patents for various AI and control systems [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.76 [4][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.914 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an increase of 18.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.470 billion yuan, up 15.78% [1][4]. - In Q3 alone, the revenue reached 4.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.54%, with a net profit of 506 million yuan, up 18.95% [1][4]. - The company is transitioning from single components to modular solutions in the automotive sector, which is expected to enhance the value per vehicle [1]. - The demand for high-voltage direct current relays in data centers is anticipated to grow, driven by the trend towards higher power and direct current applications [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 17.058 billion yuan, 19.570 billion yuan, and 21.813 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.0%, 14.7%, and 11.5% respectively [2][8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.939 billion yuan, 2.245 billion yuan, and 2.579 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.9%, 15.8%, and 14.9% respectively [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.30 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.73 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][8]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with projections of 36.8% in 2025, 37.1% in 2026, and 37.2% in 2027 [8].