宏观点评报告 消费、投资双双回升 1-2 月经济数据点评 核心结论 消费、投资需求双双回升。1-2 月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4%，较 去年 12 月增速 3.7%回升（图表 1）；固定资产投资同比增长 4.1%，较去年 12 月增速 2.2%明显加快（图表 2）。内需总体上延续去年 4 季度以来改善态 势。 零售增速回升由餐饮收入增长带动，提振消费专项行动有利于推动消费持续 回升。 设备更新促进制造业投资增长，房地产投资拖累减轻。1-2 月份，制造业投 资同比增长 9%，基建投资同比增长 9.9%，均较 12 月增速加快；房地产开 发投资同比下降 9.8%，比去年低跌幅放缓（图表 8）。今年以来，加力推进 设备更新，支持设备更新超长期特别国债发行规模从去年 1500 亿元增加至 2000 亿元。1-2 月份，设备工器具投资同比增长 18%，增速较 12 月 14.9% 加快（图表 9）。 工业和服务业增长略有放缓，但仍然维持较高增速水平。1-2 月份，工业增 加值同比增长 5.9%，较去年 12 月增速 6.2%略有回落；1-2 月份工业增加值 环比增速均值 0.35%，较去年 4 季度有放缓（图表 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.229 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 838 million yuan, up 15.97% year-on-year [1][5]. - The sales of negative electrode materials reached 4.707 billion yuan in 2024, with a shipment volume of 216,500 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.97% and 53.65% respectively. The company has developed fast-charging negative electrode products, which have significantly boosted production and sales [2][3]. - The company expects to maintain stable profitability per ton of negative materials, with an estimated profit of around 3,000 yuan per ton for the year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.609 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.92% and a year-on-year increase of 5.42%. The net profit for the same quarter was 261 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68.24% and a year-on-year increase of 17.80% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 25.72%, down 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.03%, down 0.43 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.047 billion yuan, 1.424 billion yuan, and 1.777 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.9%, 36.1%, and 24.7% [3][4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 4.01 yuan, 5.46 yuan, and 6.81 yuan [3][4]. Market Position - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a new 100,000-ton facility in Shijiazhuang that has recently commenced operations. The company anticipates a shipment of approximately 70,000 tons of negative electrode products in Q1 2025 [2][3]. - The company is also planning to build a new production line in Shanxi, expected to start construction in Q3 2025, and is steadily advancing its overseas production capacity [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, particularly favoring cement and large state-owned construction enterprises [3]. Core Insights - Demand recovery in the construction sector is expected to exceed expectations, with significant improvements in land acquisition in third-tier cities and a positive trend in infrastructure projects [1][3]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery has increased, indicating a rebound in domestic engineering projects [1]. - Cement prices have shown a steady increase, with a national average price rise of 1.6% week-on-week, driven by demand recovery and industry self-discipline measures [2][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction index rose by 1.41% and the building materials index by 1.29% during the week of March 10-14, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.39% [3][9]. - All sub-sectors within the construction industry experienced growth, with the decoration sector leading at a 3.49% increase [3][9]. Cement Industry Data - The national cement market price increased by 1.6% week-on-week, with significant price hikes in East, Central, and Southwest regions [2][35]. - The average cement enterprise shipment rate reached 43%, reflecting a 4.87 percentage point increase week-on-week [43][46]. Infrastructure and Project Orders - The report highlights the positive trend in new project orders for major construction companies, with specific attention to state-owned enterprises like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [51]. - The issuance of local government special bonds has increased significantly, with a total of 512.80 billion yuan issued in the week of March 10-15, 2025 [19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in cement companies with low price-to-book ratios, such as Conch Cement, and large state-owned construction firms like China Railway Construction and China Electric Power Construction [3].

ERN DE HISTER 宏观点评报告 1-2 月经济数据点评 核心结论 . 消费、投资需求双双回升。1-2月,社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4%,较 去年 12月增速 3.7%回升(图表 1);固定资产投资同比增长 4.1%,较去年 12 月增速 2.2%明显加快(图表 2)。内需总体上延续去年 4 李度以来改善态 势。 零售增速回升由餐饮收入增长带动,提振消费专项行动有利于推动消费持续 回升。 餐饮消费带动零售增速回升。1-2月份,全国餐饮收入同比增长 4.3%, 分析师 S08005 2070002 13911826169 liu@research.xbmail.com.cn 设备更新促进制造业投资增长,房地产投资拖累减轻。1-2 月份,制造业投 资同比增长 9%,基建投资同比增长 9.9%,均较 12月增速加快;房地产开 发投资同比下降 9.8%,比去年低跌幅放缓(图表 8)。今年以来,加力推进 设备更新,支持设备更新超长期特别国债发行规模从去年 1500亿元增加至 2000亿元。1-2月份,设备工器具投资同比增长 18%,增速较 12月 14.9% 加快(图表 9)。 相关研究 美股迎来"死亡螺旋" ...

种植链：USDA3 月报告发布，全球玉米、小麦产量调增 USDA 发布 3 月作物供需形势预测报告。玉米方面，全球玉米产量/消费量为 12.14/12.39 亿吨，环比+170/+123 万吨。全球玉米库销比为 20.27%，环比走 低 0.07ppt。大豆方面，全球大豆产量/消费量为 4.21/4.09 亿吨，环比持平/+298 万吨，消费量提升原因是中国、阿根廷、泰国、乌克兰和巴基斯坦压榨需求提升。 全球大豆库销比为 20.54%，环比走低 0.60ppt。小麦方面，全球小麦产量/消费 量为 7.97/8.07 亿吨，环比+344/+293 万吨。全球小麦库销比为 25.63%，环比 走高 0.20ppt。大米方面，全球大米产量/消费量分别为 5.33/5.31 亿吨，环比分 别-1/+19 万吨。全球大米库销比为 30.81%，环比走低 0.03ppt。 投资建议：生猪养殖推荐温氏股份、唐人神、巨星农牧、华统股份，建议关注新 五丰。白鸡养殖推荐圣农发展，建议关注益生股份、禾丰股份。种业推荐隆平高 科，建议关注大北农、登海种业。饲料板块建议关注海大集团。 行业周报 | 农林牧渔 上市猪企 1~2 月出栏量 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial industry, particularly for brokerage and insurance sectors, with specific recommendations for stocks within these categories [3][12][18]. Core Insights - The financial industry saw a weekly increase of 3.15% in the non-bank financial index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.57 percentage points. The insurance sector performed particularly well with a 4.29% increase [1][8]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is anticipated to support the stability of the capital market and boost investor confidence [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from improved liquidity in the capital market, with a projected revenue growth of 4% and net profit growth of 16% for 2024 [11][12]. - The insurance sector is positively influenced by the recovery of long-term interest rates and favorable consumption policies, with a projected increase in new business value (NBV) [13][14]. - The banking sector's performance is mixed, with a slight increase of 1.41%, but it is lagging behind the CSI 300 index. The sector is expected to see continued inflows of long-term capital from insurance funds [15][18]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index increased by 2.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.28 percentage points. The sector is expected to benefit from improved market liquidity and positive policy signals [2][10]. - Key stocks recommended include Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy, with a focus on those benefiting from increased retail investor participation [11][12]. Insurance Sector - The insurance index rose by 4.29%, driven by recovering long-term interest rates and supportive consumption policies. The sector is expected to show stable demand for savings-type insurance products [13][14]. - Recommended stocks include China Life, Ping An, and New China Life, focusing on those with strong dividend yields and stable operations [14][19]. Banking Sector - The banking index saw a modest increase of 1.41%, with state-owned banks showing slight declines. The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing capital inflows and improved asset quality [15][18]. - Recommended stocks include Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China CITIC Bank, focusing on those with high dividend yields and solid fundamentals [18][56].

宏观点评报告 流动性偏紧的内外部原因 2 月金融数据点评 核心结论 政府债券净融资增长较快，推动社融增速回升。2 月份新增社会融资总量 22375 亿元，高于去年同期 1.5 万亿元；存量社会融资总量同比增长 8.2%， 较 1 月增速 8%回升（图表 1）。2 月社融同比多增 7416 亿元。其中人民币 贷款同比少增 3245 亿元；政府债券净融资同比多增 1.1 万亿元。1-2 月份累 计，社融同比多增 1.3 万亿元，其中政府债券净融资同比多增 1.5 万亿元， 推动整体社融增长（图表 2）。 贷款增速继续回落。2 月份新增贷款 1.01 万亿元，低于去年同期 1.45 万亿 元；存量贷款同比增长 7.3%，较 1 月增速 7.5%继续放缓（图表 3）。2 月份 贷款同比少增 4400 亿元；1-2 月份累计同比少增 2300 亿元，主要由住户部 门和非银行金融机构贷款同比少增拖累（图表 4）。2 月住户贷款减少 3891 亿元；存量住户贷款同比增长 3%，较 1 月回升、但是低于去年 12 月（图表 5）。企业住户贷款 2 月同比增长 9.1%，增速较 1 月回落，也低于去年 12 月（图表 6）。 ...

公司点评 | 东方财富 业绩表现亮眼，经纪两融市占率提升 东方财富（300059.SZ）2024 年报点评 东方财富发布 2024 年报，24 年实现营业总收入和归母净利润 116.04、96.10 亿元，同比分别+4.7%、+17.3%，加权平均 ROE 同比+0.7pct 至 12.64%； 其中 24Q4 实现营业总收入和归母净利润 43.01、35.68 亿元，环比分别 +82.3%、+79.7%，显著受益于交投活跃。收入方面，2024 年公司营业收入、 利息净收入和手续费及佣金净收入分别为 31.11、23.81、61.12 亿元，同比 -20.0%、+6.9%、+23.1%；除销售费用下降 31.2%，其他费用基本持平。 公司营业收入有所承压。公募降费影响下营业收入同比下降，天天基金非货 基金销售额同比+19.6%至 10867 亿元，根据中基协数据，截至 2024 年末 天天基金非货、ETF 保有规模分别较 24 上半年+4.2%、+14.6%至 5754、 925 亿元，预计营业收入下降主要由权益基金管理费率下调和低费率 ETF 规 模扩张所带来；预计后续公募基金改革方案会对销售机构环节进行规 ...

行业点评 | 有色金属 钴价已突破 25 万元/吨，钴供需结构有望好转 事件：根据 25 年 2 月 21 日由刚果金总理和矿业部长签署的新法规，国有企 业 EGC(Entreprise Generale du Cobalt)成为唯一有权出口所谓手工钴的实 体。2025 年 2 月 24 日，全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）宣布暂停钴出口四个 月，以应对国际市场供应过剩导致的钴价持续低迷。该政策自 2 月 22 日生 效，计划三个月后评估效果并决定是否调整。作为全球钴供应链的核心节点， 刚果（金）此举或引发钴价短期波动，并对中国钴产业链上下游企业形成挑 战与机遇。 截至 3 月 13 日，钴价已达 26.1 万元/吨，较 2 月 24 日涨幅达 64.15%。中 国钴平均价格自 2025 年 2 月 24 日起明显上涨。截至 25 年 3 月 13 日，钴 价在刚果金宣布暂停出口后显著上涨，预计价格将持续提升。2024 年刚果 （金）国内生产总值超 700 亿美元，矿业产值占 GDP 的 30%-40%，是经 济核心支柱，刚果金即使不希望贱卖矿产，也仍需要出口矿物维持国家经济 收入，故我们判断四个月后或将有限地放开 ...

行业周报 | TMT 继续把握科技浪潮下的投资机会 TMT 科技行业每周评议 核心结论 整体策略： 本周我们继续推荐 AI 软件应用，看好国产 AI 算力产业链大 β，同时维持对 于人形机器人带动的相关电子产业及港股互联网领域价值重估的投资机会 的推荐，关注华为春季发布会。 MaaS 带来软件公司的重估。MaaS 是把模型包进软件里，表现形式是应用 软件，内核是 token。软件公司重估的机遇在于模型驱使的更新频率变快， 使得客户愿意为服务付费，从而使得软件公司的现金流更稳定。相关公司： 用友网络、金蝶国际、汉得信息、鼎捷数智、赛意信息、新致软件、迈富时、 博思软件、泛微网络、致远互联、虹软科技、金山办公、合合信息、福昕软 件、万兴科技。 重视国产 AI 算力产业链大 β。AI 算力的最优产品形态尚未最终确定，技术 迭代会形成新的产业趋势。英伟达 GTC 大会召开在即，技术创新或将再次 涌现。建议重视渗透率低且加速提升的技术商用趋势，关注 CPO、AEC 和 液冷。关注云厂商估值重估、算力租赁和 IDC 租赁需求改善、设备端交换机、 服务器、光互联、铜互连、液冷、电源等产业链环节的新机会。重视端侧 AI 硬件 ...