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福晶科技(002222):2025年半年报点评:主营业务稳健增长,至期光子25H1扭亏为盈
Western Securities· 2025-09-11 05:36
公司点评 | 福晶科技 主营业务稳健增长,至期光子 25H1 扭亏为盈 福晶科技(002222.SZ)2025 年半年报点评 事件:公司发布 2025 年半年报,25H1 公司实现营收 5.19 亿元,同比+18.10%; 归母净利润 1.28 亿元,同比+16.96%;扣非归母净利润 1.20 亿元,同比+2.30%; 25Q2 公司实现营收 2.80 亿元,同比+20.69%,环比+16.99%;归母净利润 0.78 亿元,同比+27.67%,环比+56.74%;扣非归母净利润 0.70 亿元,同比+0.66%, 环比+42.81%。 公司各主营业务齐头并进,持续投入下研发成果丰硕。1)2025 年公司主要稳 固现有的纳秒激光和光通讯市场,并持续推进 LBO,Nd:YVO4 晶体和声光磁 光产品在皮秒和飞秒激光市场增长。25H1 公司出口业务收入同比增长 13.75%, 内销业务收入同比增长 20.77%。分业务看,25H1 公司晶体元器件营收同比增 长 7.67%,其中非线性光学晶体营收同比增长 5.98%,激光晶体营收同比增长 10.15%;精密光学元件营收同比增长 29.05%;激光器件营收同比增长 ...
美芯晟(688458):传感器和无线充电业务高速增长,毛利率大幅提升
Western Securities· 2025-09-11 03:09
公司点评 | 美芯晟 传感器和无线充电业务高速增长,毛利率大幅提升 证券研究报告 风险提示:产品迭代及技术创新风险,高额研发投入风险,行业周期风险。 | 核心数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 472 | 404 | 653 | 1,043 | 1,417 | | 增长率 | 7.1% | -14.4% | 61.6% | 59.7% | 35.8% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 30 | (67) | 41 | 140 | 220 | | 增长率 | -42.6% | -320.8% | 161.0% | 244.2% | 57.7% | | 每股收益(EPS) | 0.27 | (0.60) | 0.36 | 1.25 | 1.97 | | 市盈率(P/E) | 158.5 | (71.8) | 117.8 | 34.2 | 21.7 | | 市净率(P/B) | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2. ...
西部证券晨会纪要-20250911
Western Securities· 2025-09-11 01:44
晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 11 日 核心结论 分析师 【固定收益】流动性和机构行为系列之二:存款和非银资金搬家能持续多 久? 理财、固收+、权益等产品对资金吸引较大;对于实体部门,存款搬家和股 市上涨往往互相促进;对于非银机构,中长期来看,低利率时代非银机构往 往调整配置结构,短期来看,随着权益市场波动、利率水平变化,非银机构 资金搬家或将阶段性减缓,可以通过股票资产风险溢价、债券和贷款比价、 债券利率与政策利率利差、30 年期 ETF 及 TL 等观察。 【固定收益】非银金融债指南针系列之三:财险行业评分模型构建与结果分 析 通过定性、定量等多维指标对财险行业的信用风险展开分析,试图能够为投 资提供帮助。 【量化】成交量冲击与隔夜收益 本文首先发现 A 股隔夜收益长期为负,T+1 机制是其直接原因,美股隔夜收 益接近 0,而港股长期为正。其次,构建成交量冲击股票因子,与 A 股隔夜 收益显著负相关,IC 达-0.15。然后,使用成交量冲击因子构建的指数增强 策略,在不同指数上可以获得 2%-5%的超额收益率,且跟踪误差仅有 0.9% 左右。最后,周换仓的成交量冲击因子表现好于常见量价因 ...
8月通胀数据点评:PPI企稳
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 11:18
宏观点评报告 PPI 企稳 8 月通胀数据点评 核心结论 CPI 同比下跌,主要受食品价格高基数拖累。8 月 CPI 同比下降 0.4%,增 速再次转负(图表 1);环比持平,低于去年同期 0.4%涨幅(图表 2)。 PPI 环比企稳,同比跌幅收窄。8 月 PPI 环比企稳,同比下降 2.9%,跌幅 明显收窄(图表 11)。8 月份燃料和黑色价格环比增速由跌转涨,对 PPI 带 动较大,但是建材、化工等价格仍在下跌(图表 12)。 PPI 可能见底回升。7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调,"依法依规治 理企业低价无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出"。7 月底政治局会议提出,"依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治 理"。往前看,年内财政政策仍有空间,我们预计需求政策和供给政策可能 共同促进 PPI 企稳回升。 风险提示:房地产需求下滑,外部不确定性加大。 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 10 日 分析师 边泉水 S0800522070002 13911826169 bianquanshui@research.xbmail.com.cn 刘鎏 S0800522080001 ...
北交所市场点评:缩量回调2.1%,关注近期盘整中的结构性机遇
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 11:07
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the industry, suggesting a focus on structural opportunities amidst a recent market pullback [4][29]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares experienced a trading volume of 33.94 billion yuan on September 9, a decrease of 10.78 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1612.41, down 2.10% [2][8]. - The report highlights that 46 out of 275 companies listed on the North Exchange saw an increase in stock prices, while 228 companies experienced declines, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2][16]. - Key sectors such as "new industrialization + specialized and innovative" and "AI computing power + specialized and innovative" showed active stock movements, suggesting potential growth areas [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On September 9, the North Exchange A-shares had a trading volume of 33.94 billion yuan, with the North Exchange 50 Index down 2.10% and a PE_TTM of 78.81 times [2][8]. - The specialized and innovative index also fell by 2.15%, reflecting broader market trends [2][8]. Stock Performance - Among the 275 companies, the top five gainers were: - Sanwei Co., up 11.4% - Huayang Transmission, up 11.0% - Kaida Catalysis, up 10.5% - Xinweiling, up 8.5% - Chicheng Co., up 8.1% [2][16][18]. - The top five losers included: - Hongyu Packaging, down 14.7% - Huayang Racing, down 11.4% - Zhuozhao Adhesive, down 9.4% - Tianming Technology, down 9.1% - Kexin New Materials, down 7.5% [2][16][18]. Important News - Significant advancements in charging technology were reported, with the AMG GT XX concept car achieving a maximum charging power of 1041 kW, marking a potential shift towards "megawatt charging" [3][19]. - A breakthrough in optical communication technology was announced, with a new type of hollow-core fiber achieving the lowest signal attenuation ever recorded [20]. Company Announcements - Zhisheng Information appointed a new securities representative and announced plans to liquidate a subsidiary to optimize resource allocation [21][22]. - Yunli Wuli also appointed a new securities representative, indicating ongoing management changes within the company [26].
流动性和机构行为系列之二:存款和非银资金搬家能持续多久?
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 10:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].
从英伟达RubinCPX和Oracle财报看算力趋势
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 10:16
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" with a maintained rating from the previous assessment [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI computing capabilities with the introduction of the Rubin CPX chip by Nvidia, which is expected to provide 30 million trillion FP4 precision floating-point operations and enhance video processing [2]. - Oracle's financial performance shows strong growth, with a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue to $14.93 billion and a 55% increase in cloud infrastructure revenue [4]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the AI computing infrastructure sector are likely to experience substantial and reliable growth due to the rapid development of generative AI models and their applications [4]. Summary by Sections Nvidia Rubin CPX Chip - The Rubin CPX chip is set to launch by the end of 2026 and can be integrated into existing server designs or operate as a standalone computing device [2]. - It features a unique inference architecture that separates the computation process into context and generation stages, optimizing resource allocation and achieving three times the attention acceleration performance [2]. - The chip is expected to transform software development by enabling AI systems to manage entire codebases and understand complex software project structures [3]. Oracle Financial Performance - In FY26Q1, Oracle reported revenues of $14.93 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit of $4.3 billion, up 8% [4]. - The cloud infrastructure segment generated $3.3 billion in revenue, reflecting a 55% year-over-year growth, while cloud applications revenue reached $3.8 billion, an 11% increase [4]. - Oracle's remaining performance obligations surged by 359% to $455 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies in the AI computing sector, including AIDC firms like SenseTime and Yunsai Zhili, AI chip manufacturers like Cambricon and Haiguang Information, and AI server providers like Inspur and Huaqin Technology [4].
荣昌生物(688331):2025年半年报点评:商业化品种放量持续,出海授权改善现金流
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 09:29
公司点评 | 荣昌生物 商业化品种放量持续,出海授权改善现金流 荣昌生物(688331.SH)2025 年半年报点评 2025 年 8 月 RC28 成功授权参天中国。参天中国将获得 RC28-E 大中华区 及韩国、泰国、越南、新加坡、菲律宾、印度尼西亚及马来西亚独家开发、 生产和商业化权利,荣昌生物将保留上述区域以外的全球独家权益。荣昌生 物将取得 2.5 亿元不可退还且不可抵扣首付款,最高 5.2 亿元开发及监管里 程碑、5.25 亿元销售里程碑付款,及高个位数至双位数百分比梯度销售分成。 盈利预测及评级:预计 2025-2027 年公司收入分别为 23.7/31.3/42.3 亿元, 同比增长 37.8%/32.1%/35.2%。商业化品种持续放量叠加部分管线潜在出海 预期,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示: 研发不及预期风险,市场竞争加剧风险,行业政策变动风险等。 | | | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1082.95 | 1716.86 | 23 ...
非银金融债指南针系列之三:财险行业评分模型构建与结果分析
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 07:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the property insurance industry's business operations, regulatory policies, and builds a scoring model to rank the risks of 11 property insurance companies with outstanding sub - debt as of September 3, 2025. It aims to recommend bond targets with relatively high risk - return ratios for investors with different risk preferences [1]. - Through multi - dimensional indicators such as qualitative and quantitative ones, the report analyzes the credit risks of the property insurance industry to assist investment decisions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Property Insurance Company Business Operation Status - **Insurance Business**: Industry - wide, the proportion of property insurance company premium income remains around 30%, with positive but slowing growth. The ratio of life insurance to property insurance premium income is about 7:3. Since 2018, property insurance company premium income has shown positive growth, but the growth rate has declined, and it has been below 10% after 2021. By the end of 2024, the original premium income of property insurance companies was about 1.69 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.55%. The diversification of insurance types is a key concern, with motor vehicle insurance still dominant but its proportion decreasing, while the proportions of liability insurance, agricultural insurance, and health insurance have increased slightly [17][18]. - **Investment Business**: The proportion of property insurance company investment assets is generally lower than that of life insurance companies, but it remains at a relatively high level. The financial investment yield of property insurance companies has declined overall, while the comprehensive investment yield has shown an upward trend. From the first half of 2022 to the end of 2024, the financial investment yield of property insurance companies fluctuated and decreased, reaching 3.05% by the end of 2024, lower than that of life insurance companies. In 2024, the comprehensive investment yields of property and life insurance companies increased significantly. The balance of property insurance company insurance funds has increased with premium income, with an increase in the proportion of bond investments and a decrease in bank deposits [24][27]. 3.2 Property Insurance Company Financial Aspects - The main difference between life and property insurance companies is that the comprehensive cost ratio cannot accurately measure the profitability of life insurance companies because the earned premium of life insurance companies does not deduct life insurance liability reserves and long - term health insurance liability reserves, resulting in a large "bubble" in earned premium [31]. - The liquidity regulatory indicators, recognized assets, and recognized liabilities of property insurance companies are similar to those of life insurance companies. 3.3 Property Insurance Industry Regulatory Points and Compliance Penalty Situations - **Regulatory Policies**: Property insurance regulatory policies are oriented towards serving the real economy, emphasizing "price reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" to protect consumer rights. For example, the reform of motor vehicle insurance has put pressure on insurance company premium income and profit growth, while agricultural insurance has developed rapidly under the background of rural revitalization [30][35]. - **Regulatory Ratings**: The risk comprehensive rating is an important indicator for measuring the solvency of insurance companies, and property insurance companies, similar to life insurance companies, focus on this regulatory indicator. Additionally, the regulatory rating in the "Insurance Company Regulatory Rating Method" issued by the National Financial Supervision and Administration in January 2025 also needs attention [38]. - **Compliance Penalties**: Property insurance companies are more frequently penalized than other insurance companies, with fines being the main form of administrative penalty. In 2024, property insurance companies accounted for 59.43% of the total fines in the insurance industry, and the amount of fines for property insurance companies was generally higher [39][43]. 3.4 Property Insurance Industry Credit Analysis Core Indicators and Model Construction - **Credit Analysis Core Indicators**: The report constructs a credit analysis scoring model from four dimensions: corporate governance, operational strength, financial performance, and risk management. - **Corporate Governance**: The shareholder background of property insurance companies is mainly state - owned enterprises, with relatively low shareholder default risks. The average proportion of state - owned legal person shareholding in the top ten shareholders of property insurance companies is 61.51%, and 75% of property insurance companies are state - owned enterprises [52][53]. - **Operational Level**: In terms of overall scale, there is a significant "head effect" among property insurance companies, with China Property Insurance and Ping An Property Insurance being prominent. The insurance business income is highly correlated with the total asset scale, and the market concentration is relatively high. The dispersion degree of insurance business and the claim settlement ratio of property insurance companies vary greatly, and the investment business risks of Yingda Property Insurance and Beibu Gulf Property Insurance are relatively low [55][58][62]. - **Financial Level**: Yingda Property Insurance has relatively stronger overall profitability. The average operating expenditure - to - income ratio of sample property insurance companies from 2022 - 2024 was 96.0%, the average comprehensive cost ratio was 99.2%, and the average comprehensive investment yield was 3.0% [67]. - **Risk Management**: In terms of solvency, property insurance companies have a relatively thick "safety cushion." As of the end of 2024, the average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of sample property insurance companies was 255.8%, and the average core solvency adequacy ratio was 188.4%. Most sample insurance companies have a risk rating of A or above, with Yingda Property Insurance receiving the highest rating [69]. - **Adjustment Items**: China Property Insurance, CPIC Property Insurance, and Ping An Property Insurance have good credit risk indicators, with Ping An Property Insurance having an advantage in risk management [75]. - **Scoring Results and Verification**: The report uses the minimum - maximum normalization method to score 11 property insurance companies with outstanding bonds as of September 3, 2025. The correlation coefficient between the 3 - year ChinaBond valuation yield and the credit score of property insurance companies is - 0.89, indicating a strong negative correlation, which verifies the scoring results [77][78]. 3.5 Insurance Company Subject Investment Value Judgment - **Subjects with a Score Above 70**: China Property Insurance, CPIC Property Insurance, and Yingda Property Insurance are above the trend line, with high scores and low risks, suitable for investors seeking stable returns and bottom - position allocation assets [5][82]. - **Subjects with a Score between 50 - 70**: Sunshine Property Insurance is slightly above the trend line, with a current outstanding bond valuation yield of not less than 2.2% and relatively controllable risks. It is suitable for investors with certain requirements for absolute returns and relatively stable liability ends [5][90].
海兴电力(603556):跟踪点评报告:销售费用增长致使业绩承压,配电业务有望实现快速增长
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 05:10
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, which has been adjusted to "Accumulate" from a previous "Buy" rating [4]. Core Views - The company has won a bid for a framework project worth 214 million yuan, which is expected to accelerate the growth of its domestic electric meter business [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 396 million yuan, down 25.7% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed a significant recovery compared to the first quarter [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to delays in domestic project execution and fluctuations in demand in certain overseas markets, alongside increased investments in R&D and sales, leading to higher expenses [2]. - The company is seeing growth in new business areas, with a notable expansion in its overseas smart water business, which has signed contracts exceeding 100 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The overseas distribution network has shifted from trade procurement to selling proprietary core products, achieving significant contracts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [3]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.019 billion yuan, 1.273 billion yuan, and 1.536 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 1.6%, 25.0%, and 20.6% [3]. - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 5.197 billion yuan, 6.266 billion yuan, and 7.519 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 10.2%, 20.6%, and 20.0% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.09 yuan, 2.62 yuan, and 3.16 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3].