Group 1: CPI Analysis - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year had a minimal impact on January CPI, unlike last year when it began at the end of January[1] - Food CPI remained flat month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the growth rate further expanding compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the rate of decline has narrowed[2] - The prices of non-ferrous metals saw an increased month-on-month growth, while fuel and building materials prices fell[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to rebound in February due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival[2] - PPI growth momentum has improved significantly, with expectations for continued recovery this year[2] - By 2026, CPI growth is projected to rebound, and PPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, leading to a notable acceleration in nominal GDP growth compared to 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - There are risks associated with declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core conclusion indicates that high-end consumption is recovering first, driven by wealth effects from asset price appreciation and improved corporate earnings, with signs of recovery in luxury goods, high-end shopping centers, duty-free, and gaming sectors starting from Q3 2025 [1][5] - Investment recommendations suggest selecting high-quality targets that combine both beta and alpha, with a focus on companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Samsonite, Galaxy Entertainment, and Sands China [1][5] Group 2: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report discusses the optimization of refinancing mechanisms by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, which aims to enhance the flexibility and efficiency of refinancing for high-quality listed companies, particularly in new industries and technologies [6][7] - It highlights that the new policies will support quality companies in utilizing funds for synergistic new industries and technologies, thereby enhancing the overall quality of refinancing business [6][7] - Investment suggestions indicate that the optimized refinancing measures will open up further opportunities for leading investment banks, enhancing their revenue growth and overall profitability in the refinancing business [8]

Economic Outlook - The weighted economic growth target for 2026 has decreased from 5.28% in 2025 to 5.04%[7] - Only one province, Jiangxi, has increased its target, while 18 regions have lowered their targets or set them as ranges, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and new industry development[10] Labor Market Analysis - The January ADP employment report showed an increase of 22,000 jobs, below the expected 45,000 and the previous month's increase of 41,000[14] - The decline in job vacancies and a surge in layoffs suggest that the Federal Reserve may have underestimated the risks in the labor market[14] Monetary Policy Insights - In January, the central bank's net liquidity injection totaled 1.27 trillion yuan, ensuring ample liquidity at the start of the year[18] - The expectation for comprehensive interest rate cuts has weakened, despite increased liquidity measures[18] International Developments - The Japanese ruling party achieved a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, potentially initiating a constitutional amendment agenda, although challenges remain in the Senate[19] - The geopolitical risks in Japan have increased due to rising fiscal pressures and a shift towards a more conservative society[19] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27% last week, with the majority of major indices in decline, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday[25] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 1.84% while the Dow Jones increased by 2.50%[27] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.21%, influenced by weak labor market data[29] - European bond yields showed varied movements, with German 10-year bonds yielding 2.84%[29] Commodity Market Movements - WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.55% to $63.6 per barrel, while gold prices increased by 1.43% to $4,964.4 per ounce[32] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to reduced geopolitical risks, while gold rebounded from previous lows[32] Currency Fluctuations - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.66% to 97.6, while the onshore yuan appreciated by 0.32% to 6.94[34] - The appreciation of the yuan is driven by pre-holiday settlement demand[34] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in global macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and the pace of technological advancements[36]

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - The sentiment impact is weakening, and the non-ferrous metal sector is returning to a fundamental phase [1][4] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced plans to strictly control new copper smelting projects and promote the construction of a reserve system [4] - Over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects have been halted, effectively curbing the rapid growth of copper smelting capacity [4] Group 2: Market Overview - The North Exchange market saw an average daily trading volume of 20.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.7% week-on-week [8] - The number of qualified investors in the North Exchange market has surpassed 10 million, marking a significant milestone [10] - Despite market adjustments, the long-term allocation value of the North Exchange remains recognized by institutions [10] Group 3: Key Developments - The U.S. is launching a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan to protect manufacturers from supply chain shocks [5] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with reserves reaching 7.419 million ounces [6] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a reassessment of the dollar's outlook by investors [7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [40]. Core Insights - The North Exchange market has reached a significant milestone with the number of qualified investors surpassing 10 million, marking a net increase of nearly 2 million compared to the same period last year, which lays a solid foundation for long-term healthy market development [3][34]. - Despite recent market adjustments, the long-term allocation value of the North Exchange remains recognized by institutions, with a slight decrease in margin financing indicating a reduction in market risk appetite [3][36]. - The acceleration of new stock issuances is expected to provide new supply to the market, with five new stocks issued in January and more expected in the coming weeks [3][36]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of all A-shares on the North Exchange reached 20.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.7% week-on-week [8]. - The North Exchange 50 index fell by 0.70% during the week, with an average turnover rate of 2.13% [8]. Key News and Policies - A joint release by ten departments introduced the "Low Altitude Economy Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)," focusing on five core areas including low-altitude aircraft and safety regulation [20]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the trading margin levels and price fluctuation limits for certain gold and silver contracts [24]. Core Driving Factors - The North Exchange's market construction has reached a new stage, with a significant increase in qualified investors, indicating enhanced market attractiveness and investor ecosystem development [34]. - Structural differentiation is evident in the industry, with active performance in energy and technology sectors, while the overall valuation shows signs of convergence [35]. - Market sentiment is cautious, with a slight retreat in margin financing indicating reduced risk appetite among investors [36]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Attention is recommended on the upcoming adjustments to the North Exchange 50 constituent stocks, which may create passive allocation demand for index funds [37]. - Focus on sectors with clear industrial trends such as AI, commercial aerospace, and semiconductors, as well as leading companies in the new energy sector that align with new productivity directions [38]. - A bottom-up approach is suggested to identify stocks with matching performance and valuation, especially those with potential for exceeding earnings expectations [38].

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanya Technology (688519.SH) is expected to achieve revenues of 49.48 billion, 61.75 billion, and 73.41 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.24 billion, 5.11 billion, and 7.83 billion CNY respectively, leading to a target market value of 229.80 billion CNY and a target price of 97.88 CNY for 2026, receiving a "Buy" rating [2][7]. - Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) is projected to have revenues of 72.6 billion, 79.6 billion, and 86.7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of -1.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 1.7 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline in 2025 but recovery in subsequent years, and is rated "Accumulate" [4][21]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The demand for high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027, driven by AI and high-frequency applications, although the market is currently dominated by a few key players [8][9]. - The white liquor industry is facing significant pressure, with production showing negative growth and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality over quantity, leading to intensified competition and a focus on value rather than scale [20][21]. - The asset tokenization market is entering a new era of compliance management, providing more diverse financing channels for companies with quality underlying assets, which may optimize their financing structures and enhance compliance credibility [15][17].

Key Policy Insights - The "Project Vault" aims to establish a strategic reserve of 60 critical minerals in the U.S., focusing on sectors like semiconductors, defense, and renewable energy[1] - The total funding for the reserve is $12 billion, with $10 billion provided by the Export-Import Bank of the United States and $2 billion from private capital[7] - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identifies minerals based on supply risk, with a threshold of $2 million annual GDP impact for inclusion in the 2025 critical minerals list[8] Historical Context - U.S. strategic reserves have fluctuated historically, with significant expansions during WWII and the 1970s-80s, and reductions post-Cold War due to perceived reliability of foreign supplies[15] - By 1952, the value of military supplies in strategic reserves reached $4.02 billion, reflecting the importance of these reserves during conflicts[11] Current Challenges and Recommendations - The strategic reserve serves as a short-term buffer against supply shocks but cannot replace a resilient supply chain or domestic production capabilities[15] - Effective industrial policy is needed to rebuild the domestic ecosystem and enhance production capacity, which may take around ten years to achieve[15] - Integrating mineral diplomacy into broader national strategies could better manage political risks and enhance supply chain resilience[15] Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. ADP reported a job increase of 22,000, significantly below the expected 45,000, indicating a weak labor market[20] - The U.S. government ended a partial shutdown with a funding bill that will provide resources until September 30, 2026[23]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for new consumption, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs, indicating a potential increase in value exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [5][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that adjustments in the market present good buying opportunities, particularly in the sectors of new consumption, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs, with a focus on recent catalysts in AI applications [5]. - The overall trend in emerging industries is characterized by a strong fundamental outlook but a weak technical position, suggesting potential for growth despite current market pressures [16][17]. Summary by Relevant Categories New Consumption - The sector is rated "Overweight" with a strong technical outlook, indicating a low position that is expected to recover [5]. - Recent government initiatives, such as the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan," are expected to support growth in this sector [5]. Solid-State Batteries - Rated "Overweight," this sector shows a strong technical outlook with expectations for a low position to rebound [5]. - Companies like Xinwangda are advancing in the production of semi-solid-state batteries, with mass production anticipated by 2027 [5]. Innovative Drugs - The sector is also rated "Overweight," with a strong technical outlook and a low position that is still in the recovery phase [5]. - Recent developments include the completion of Phase III clinical trials for innovative drugs, indicating progress in the sector [5]. AI Applications and Computing Infrastructure - The report notes a neutral rating for AI applications and computing infrastructure, with moderate growth expectations and recent advancements in national supercomputing capabilities [5][10]. - The launch of the national supercomputing internet core node is expected to provide significant AI computing resources [10]. Commercial Aerospace - Rated as "Neutral," the commercial aerospace sector is experiencing high levels of activity but is under adjustment pressure [5]. - Recent developments include SpaceX's application to launch a large number of satellites, which could redefine AI resource competition [10]. Humanoid Robots - The sector is rated "Neutral+" with a strong technical outlook, as Tesla announces plans for mass production of its humanoid robot by 2026 [5][10]. Gaming - The gaming sector is rated "Neutral+" with a strong technical outlook, but recent developments have led to a downward adjustment in expectations [5][10]. - The release of Google's Genie 3 has caused volatility in the market, but it is viewed as a tool for development rather than a disruptive technology [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of February 5, 2026, provincial - level two sessions have been held. The average GDP growth target of 31 provinces in 2026 is 5.12%, a slight decrease of 0.24 percentage points from 2025. Most provinces set their GDP growth targets in the range of 5% - 5.5% [1][11]. - The key tasks of local governments in 2026 focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating the development of new - quality productivity, including tapping effective demand potential, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, and building a modern industrial system. Debt - alleviation key provinces also focus on these areas while making differentiated arrangements based on provincial conditions [1][16][18]. - In terms of finance, some provinces have lowered their general public budget revenue growth targets, with the average target growth rate dropping from 3.3% to 2.5%. Local governments will continue to resolve local debt risks, and the transformation and exit tasks of financing platforms will be further strengthened [2][21]. - Looking ahead, the 10Y Treasury bond has fallen to the resistance level around 1.8%, and the bond market may remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inflation data in January and the possible disturbances caused by re - inflation expectations [2][27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the precious metal market fluctuated, and the central bank maintained cross - festival liquidity. The bond market oscillated, with the ultra - long - end leading the rise. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds decreased by 0.1bp and 4bp respectively [10]. - The GDP growth targets of most provinces in 2026 have been adjusted. 21 provinces lowered their targets, and only Jiangxi raised its target. The average growth target decreased slightly compared to 2025 [11][14]. - The key tasks of economic powerhouse provinces and debt - alleviation key provinces in 2026 mainly include expanding domestic demand, strengthening innovation, and promoting industrial development, with some provinces also emphasizing reform and regional construction [16][18]. - In terms of finance, some provinces have lowered their revenue growth targets, and local governments will continue to resolve debt risks and strengthen the transformation of financing platforms [21][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation - This week, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 7560 billion yuan in the open market. From February 2 to 6, the central bank injected 10055 billion yuan, and reverse repurchases worth 17615 billion yuan matured. Next week, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits will be issued, and reverse repurchases worth 4055 billion yuan will mature [28]. - Capital interest rates declined. From February 2 to 6, R007 and DR007 dropped by 11bp and 13bp respectively compared to January 30. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first decreased and then increased, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate declined after narrow - range fluctuations [31]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - This week, bond yields oscillated within a range and then declined. Except for the 1Y Treasury bond, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds decreased. Except for the 7Y - 5Y, 10Y - 7Y, and 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond term spreads, other key - term spreads narrowed [38][40]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 39%. As of February 6, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread widened by 0.7bp compared to January 30, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 3.7bp to 44bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly decreased to 122.9%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.01 years to 2.61 years, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [45]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. From February 2 to 6, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 8834 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 4229 billion yuan. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased [60]. - The issuance scale of Treasury bonds increased this week. A total of 6 Treasury bonds were issued from February 2 to 6, with a total issuance scale of 3970 billion yuan. Next week, the 7Y Treasury bond 250025.IB will be re - issued, with an issuance scale of 1300 billion yuan [63][64]. - The issuance scale of local bonds will decrease next week. This week, 90 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 5797 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance scale of local government bonds is 3221 billion yuan, a decrease of 2575 billion yuan compared to this week [64]. - This week, inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from net repayment to net financing, and the average issuance rate remained flat. The total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit from February 2 to 6 was 5066 billion yuan, and the net financing was 3751 billion yuan [65]. 3.3 Economic Data - Since February, port throughput has been strong, while industrial production has shown a marginal weakening trend. In the real estate sector, new - home sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and second - hand home sales in 13 cities decreased less month - on - month and increased more year - on - year. In the consumption sector, movie consumption decreased month - on - month and was weaker than the seasonal level year - on - year, subway travel was basically in line with the seasonal level, and flight travel was slightly weaker than the seasonal level. In the export sector, port throughput increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the CCFI and SCFI indices decreased [69]. - Industrial production showed a marginal weakening trend. The PTA operating rate increased month - on - month, while other operating rate indicators decreased month - on - month. In terms of infrastructure and price high - frequency data, production indicators decreased month - on - month, and the prices of asphalt, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals turned down [69][73]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US non - farm payrolls report was postponed. Due to the "technical shutdown" of the US federal government, the release time of multiple economic data reports by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was adjusted. The original January non - farm payrolls report scheduled for February 6 was rescheduled to February 11, and the January CPI report was adjusted to 8:30 am on February 13, Eastern Time [78]. - Fed's Daly warned of the vulnerability of the labor market and said that one or two more interest rate cuts might be needed. In the overseas bond market, US bonds rose, while emerging markets mostly declined. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bond yields decreased by 2bp and 4bp respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed from 74bp on January 30 to 72bp [78][79]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week. As of February 6, 2026, it closed at 4643.6 points, a decrease of 1.33% compared to January 30. The US dollar index rose slightly this week, and both Shanghai gold and Shanghai copper significantly adjusted. The performance of major asset classes this week was: US dollar > convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > live pigs > crude oil > CSI 300 > rebar > CSI 1000 > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold [84]. 3.6 Next Week's Bond Market Calendar - In terms of liquidity, there will be reverse repurchase maturities and the issuance of treasury cash fixed deposits. In terms of government bond supply, there will be the issuance of Treasury bonds and local government bonds. In terms of fundamental data, there will be the release of economic data from China, the US, and other countries, as well as reports from EIA, OPEC, and IEA [88].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The domestic first commercial SAR satellite closed-loop service system is taking shape as Tianyi Research Institute aims for an A-share IPO [1] - The national supercomputing internet core node has been launched, establishing a foundation for a trillion-parameter model computing capacity with a 30,000-card domestic cluster [1] - Tesla has achieved mass production of dry electrode technology, and Changan Automobile will be the first globally to equip sodium-ion batteries from CATL in its vehicles [2] - The State Grid has clarified that the "14th Five-Year Plan" investment will focus on green transformation and enhancing cross-regional transmission capacity [2] - The offshore wind power sector in China is progressing, with an expected addition of 6.12 GW of new grid-connected capacity by 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Commercial Space and AI Computing - Tianyi Research Institute is preparing for an A-share IPO, establishing a commercial SAR satellite service system [1] - The national supercomputing internet core node will provide efficient computing services for large-scale AI applications [1] Section 2: Battery Technology and Electric Vehicles - Tesla's dry electrode technology is now in mass production, significantly reducing costs and energy consumption [2] - Changan Automobile's introduction of sodium-ion batteries marks a significant advancement in battery technology for electric vehicles [2] Section 3: Power Infrastructure and Renewable Energy - The State Grid's investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will reach 4 trillion yuan, focusing on green energy and quality improvement [2] - The offshore wind power sector is set to expand with significant new installations planned for 2025 [2]