宏观周报 春季躁动将至？ 宏观与资产论（20251228） 核心结论 一、本周美股开启"圣诞行情"，上证指数实现八连阳，资金面宽松也推动 近期利率债收益率多数下行。随着新一年临近，关于"跨年行情"和"春季 躁动"行情讨论升温，一般而言这背后的逻辑主要受岁末年初流动性与风险 偏好驱动，和宏观基本面关联度不高。不过在 2024 年、2025 年跨年行情均 出现了缺席——2024 年流动性明显不紧，但权益市场信心偏弱，而 2025 年 A 股躁动行情前置、美联储态度边际转鹰和人民币汇率承压导致 A 股表现不 佳；债市则在年末相对机会更好，到次年 1 月转为震荡。 相比起过去两年，我们认为 2026 年 A 股"春季躁动"行情处在一个更有利 的宏观环境，这也意味着可能 1 月股市机会将好于债市： 1、作为春季躁动的核心驱动力，流动性不是担忧。市场对海外央行政策中 性化定价较为充分，国内 2026 年上半年政策性降息和降准仍有空间，但迫 切性不强。国债利差走扩仍然支撑成长和顺周期的景气溢价。 2、从过去几年的跨年行情来看，股票和人民币走势较为同步。而不同于 2024 年末，今年年底人民币出现了有序升值。尽管我们认为短期 ...

固定收益周报 明年固收+与纯债基金增减如何影响债市需求？ 信用周报 20251228 核心结论 1、固收+基金规模增长带来的债券需求变化：悲观、中性、乐观情形下 2026 年 固收+基金带来的债券需求规模分别为 3 万亿元、3.40 万亿元和 3.95 万亿元； 带来的需求增量分别为 2723 亿元、6807 亿元和 12253 亿元。其中信用债需求 或增幅较大，中性情形下普信债、金融债相较 2025Q3 的增量分别为 2740 亿元、 1751 亿元。 2、纯债基金规模缩减带来的债券需求变化：悲观、中性、乐观情形下 2026 年 纯债基金带来的债券需求规模分别为 6.58 万亿元、6.97 万亿元和 7.35 万亿元； 带来的需求减少量分别为 11608 亿元、7739 亿元和 3869 亿元。其中普信债和 政金债需求减少相对较多，中性情形下普信债、政金债相较 2025Q3 的变化规 模分别为-2268 亿元、-3043 亿元。 3、仅考虑信用债和利率债的中性情形下，固收+基金规模增长带来的债券增量 或不能抵消纯债基金规模缩减导致的债券减量：信用债和可转债需求均增长， 而利率债、尤其是政金债需求明显下降。 ...

行业周报 | 计算机 英伟达部分收编 Groq，或为补全推理芯片拼图 计算机行业周观点第 46 期 核心结论 计算机：从"+AI"到"AI+"，AI 巨轮破浪前 行 — 2026 年 计 算 机 行 业 年 度 策 略 2025-12-12 12 月 25 日，据 Business insider、CNBC 等外媒报道，英伟达已经同意以约 200 亿美元的现金，收购成立 9 年的 AI 芯片公司 Groq 的核心资产。英伟达 此次并非采取传统的收购标的公司 100%股权的方式。根据 Groq 官方博客与 英伟达的说法，这是一项非排他性授权协议，其主要内容包括：1）业务分 割：英伟达将获得 Groq 的所有资产与技术授权，但 Groq 旗下的 GroqCloud 云端业务并不在交易范围内，将维持独立运作。2）人才吸纳：作为该协议 的一部分，Groq 的创始人 Jonathan Ross、Groq 的总裁 Sunny Madra 以及 Groq 团队的其他成员将加入英伟达，以帮助推进和扩大授权技术的规模。3） 公司独立性：Groq 将继续作为一家"独立公司"运作，由原首席财务官 Simon Edwards 出任新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.08 CNY per share, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on structural upgrades in both the medical and consumer sectors through a dual business model of "medical + consumer" [1][6]. - The medical industry is transitioning from basic consumables to high-value products such as advanced dressings and customized surgical packs, driven by aging populations and rising medical standards [1]. - The consumer side is focusing on high-quality, safe, and environmentally friendly products, reflecting a trend towards health and quality of life [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.897 billion CNY, a 30.10% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 732 million CNY, up 32.36% [2]. - The consumer segment generated 4.01 billion CNY in revenue, with significant growth in key product categories: 63.9% for cotton soft towels, 15.7% for high-end sanitary napkins, and 17.3% for comfortable cotton clothing [2]. - The medical segment's revenue reached 3.83 billion CNY, marking a 44.4% increase, driven by the acquisition of GRI, which boosted surgical consumables by 185.3% [2]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to continue its global expansion, focusing on high-value medical products and enhancing synergies from the GRI acquisition [3]. - The strategic plan for the next three years includes specific growth targets and an employee stock incentive program to drive internal motivation [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025-2027 are 1.78 CNY, 2.13 CNY, and 2.44 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.3, 17.9, and 15.6 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) with a target price of 16.27 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 9.448 billion, 12.019 billion, and 14.171 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.20, and 1.41 CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -39.61%, 27.21%, and 17.91% respectively [1][20]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a stable price range of 700-800 CNY per ton from 2025 to 2027, despite market concerns about oversupply [2][16]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 464 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 60 billion tons, positioning it among the top coal producers in China [2][59]. - The company has a strong track record of cash dividends, with an average payout ratio of 49.82% since its listing, and a projected payout ratio of 53.58% for 2024 [2][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 120.47 billion, 127.92 billion, and 131.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with growth rates of -13.4%, 6.2%, and 2.7% respectively [3][20]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 15.644 billion CNY, down 23.9% from the previous year, while the 2025 net profit is projected to decline significantly before recovering in subsequent years [3][20]. Business Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company operates as a comprehensive energy operator with a diverse business layout, including mining, high-end chemical materials, and renewable energy [27]. - The coal segment is expected to contribute 66% of total revenue and 83% of total profit in 2024, highlighting its critical role in the company's financial health [12][29]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with domestic coal production projected to stabilize around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [55]. - The demand for coal is anticipated to remain robust due to the ongoing reliance on thermal power generation, which still accounts for a significant portion of electricity production in China [48][49].

晨会纪要 公司卡位演出与 IP 衍生双高景气赛道，票务业务贡献稳健基本盘，阿里鱼 有望提供业绩弹性，充分受益于线下娱乐消费的持续复苏与结构升级，我们 预计公司 FY26-28 经调整归母净利润分别为 10.60/13.54/15.77 亿元，首次 覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【建筑装饰】中石化炼化工程（02386.HK）首次覆盖报告：中石化旗下高 股息能化工程龙头，海外发力加速开拓 中石化炼化工程是国内最大的能化工程企业之一，专业技术实力领先，控股 股东中石化实力雄厚，集团内业务基本盘有保障，海外业务加速开拓，贡献 业绩增量。此外，公司财务表现良好，分红比例持续较高，股息率超过 5%， 有望为投资者提供较为稳定的收益。我们给予公司 2026 年 13 倍 PE，对应 目标价为 9.50 港元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【非银金融】中银航空租赁（02588.HK）首次覆盖报告：航空景气度上行+ 降息周期双重受益的飞机租赁龙头 公司或将双重受益于航空产业景气度上行与美联储降息周期，一方面中银航 空租赁拥有在列飞机 483 架，在全球飞机租赁公司中排名第五，航空景气上 行下将持续受益于全球航空公司客户群带来的 ...

公司深度研究 | 中石化炼化工程 中石化旗下高股息能化工程龙头，海外发力加速开拓 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 中石化炼化工程（02386.HK）首次覆盖报告 【核心结论】中石化炼化工程是国内最大的能化工程企业之一，专业技术实 力领先，控股股东中石化实力雄厚，集团内业务基本盘有保障，海外业务加 速开拓，贡献业绩增量。此外，公司财务表现良好，分红比例持续较高，股 息率超过 5%，有望为投资者提供较为稳定的收益。我们给予公司 2026 年 13 倍 PE，对应目标价为 9.50 港元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 行业层面：1）"两桶油"稳居市场龙头，石化行业营收较为稳健，但利润持 续承压：2025H1 石化行业营收同比略下滑 2.6%，利润总额同比下滑 10.3%； 中国石油、中国石化"两桶油"在石油化工行业市场份额合计 36.8%。2）"减 油增化"趋势明显，石化产品仍有需求空间：2025M1-11，中国乙烯表观消 费量同比+9.94%，进口依赖度 7.14%，国产替代需求仍有增长空间；中国 化学纤维制造业固投同比增速 12.1%，行业景气度较高。3）政策支持煤化 工发展：据煤化工网微信 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to BOC Aviation (02588.HK) [6] Core Views - BOC Aviation is positioned to benefit from the rising aviation industry and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a fleet of 483 aircraft, ranking fifth globally among aircraft leasing companies. The company is expected to see revenue growth from its global airline customer base and a decrease in funding costs due to lower interest rates, leading to an expansion of profit margins [2][6] - The aviation market is recovering strongly post-pandemic, with global available seat kilometers (ASK) returning to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025. A shortage of aircraft supply due to delivery delays from Boeing and Airbus is expected to drive rental prices upward [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - BOC Aviation, a leading aircraft leasing company backed by Bank of China, operates in 46 countries and regions, serving 88 airlines. The company has shown resilience and growth since its establishment in 1993 and its listing in Hong Kong in 2016 [22][23] Industry Analysis - The aviation leasing market is characterized by high concentration, with the top 20 companies holding a significant market share. The industry is currently in a recovery phase, with demand for air travel increasing, particularly in Europe and North America, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to drive future growth [36][39][43] Competitive Advantages - BOC Aviation boasts a young fleet and long-term lease agreements, providing cost and liquidity advantages. The company is dynamically adjusting its debt structure to optimize financing costs, which are expected to decline as interest rates fall [3][12] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for BOC Aviation from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $26.34 billion, $28.54 billion, and $29.39 billion, with corresponding net profits of $7.61 billion, $8.94 billion, and $9.64 billion. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.53, 10.01, and 10.80 HKD respectively [4][12][13] Valuation and Target Price - The report suggests a target price of 84.37 HKD for BOC Aviation, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.1 times, reflecting the company's strong position in the recovering aviation market and the anticipated decrease in funding costs [16]

公司深度研究 | 大麦娱乐 现实娱乐头部平台，演出票务与 IP 衍生双轮驱动 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 大麦娱乐（1060.HK）首次覆盖 演出：高景气赛道稳居龙头地位，内容+出海+品类驱动增长。现场演出市场 呈现"量价齐升"高景气度，据中国演出行业协会，2024 年大型演唱会票 房超 260 亿元，同比增长 78.1%。我们看好现场娱乐高景气度的持续性，需 求端，悦己与社交需求共振，多次观演比例提升；供给端，中低线城市与品 类多元化持续扩容。大麦稳居演出票务第一梯队，先发优势强，壁垒深厚， 高市占率的背后，是近 20 年的行业深耕，对上下游的深度整合，以及用户 消费习惯的培养与心智的养成。往后看，一方面，大麦受益于国内演出市场 的高景气度，另一方面，内容+出海+品类拓展亦打开向上空间。 IP：阿里鱼领跑授权蓝海，深化头部 IP 合作贡献业绩弹性。阿里鱼，全球 第六、中国第一大授权代理商，据 License Global，2024 年 GMV 达 41 亿 美元，以"IP2B2C"模式构建竞争壁垒，通过双边网络效应连接三丽鸥、 宝可梦等数百个优质 IP 与 10 万+淘系商家，全链条沉淀 ...

公司点评 | 伟思医疗 业绩增长稳健，脑机布局持续深化 伟思医疗（688580.SH）跟踪点评 事件：公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收 3.26 亿元/+11.58%，归母净利润 1.02 亿元/+30.68%，扣非归母净利润 0.94 亿元/+37.35%；其中 25Q3 实现营收 1.15 亿元/+14.87%，归母净利润 0.33 亿元/+14.99%。 基石业务稳健发展，丰富新兴业务布局。公司聚焦康复为基石业务，发展医 美和泌尿为新兴业务，形成多层次业务架构。2025 年前三季度精神康复业 务受益于政策支持与市场需求，保持双位数增长；盆底康复依托射频、塑形 磁等新品实现结构升级，前三季度实现个位数增长；神经康复随"NEO Family"产品家族完善，期待后续放量；医美方面，公司正加快整合射频、 激光、超声等能量源技术，凭借医疗级技术背景切入轻医美市场，预计将贡 献确定性强、毛利较高的收入。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧导致中低端康复类产品价格战；新品研发及推广不 及预期风险。 核心数据 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- ...