分析师 曹森元 S0800524100001 19821289688 caosenyuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 行业日报 | 北交所 北证 50 指数调整，周期板块逆势活跃 北交所市场点评——20250912 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：9 月 12 日北证 A 股成交金额达 277.1 亿元，较上 一交易日增加 4.9 亿元，北证 50 指数收盘价为 1600.88，下跌 2.11%， PE_TTM 为 78.47 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2750.02，下跌 1.81%。 2）个股层面：当日北交所 275 家公司中 61 家上涨，2 家平盘，212 家下跌。 其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：驰诚股份（30.0%）、新威凌（11.6%）、国 义招标（8.6%）、广咨国际（7.6%）、沪江材料（7.5%）；跌幅前五的个 股分别为：广道数字（-14.5%）、东和新材（-7.2%）、纳科诺尔（-7.2%）、 聚星科技（-6.0%）、方盛股份（-5.7%）。 新闻汇总：1）国常会：支持民间资本加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型 基础设施等领域投资：9 月 12 日，国务院总理李强主持召 ...

金工量化专题报告 动量因子改进之"方向动量" 因子手工作坊系列（3） 核心结论 本文借鉴《Directional Information in Equity Returns》一文，构建增强 方向动量（D-MOM）因子。该因子有着较为优异且稳定的选股能力，并可 以有效地抵御"动量崩溃"风险。 【报告亮点】 【主要逻辑】 主要逻辑一、通过线性概率模型构建增强方向动量（D-MOM）因子。 以个股历史收益率及正（负）收益的持续时间等指标为自变量，表征下一期 收益率方向的哑变量为因变量，建立线性概率模型，得到的预测值即为增强 方向动量（D-MOM）因子。2018.01-2025.08 期间，因子的 IC 为 0.064，IC 胜率为 86%，十分组多空年化收益率超过 25%。多头组合月收益率分布呈 较为鲜明的右偏特征（偏度：0.72），显著降低了发生"动量崩溃"的概率。 主要逻辑二、增强方向动量（D-MOM）因子能够提供常见因子以外的信息， 其收益来源也无法被现有的定价模型所解释。 通过计算和现有因子的相关性、双重排序和 Fama-MacBeth 回归的多重检 验，我们发现，增强方向动量（D-MOM）因子不仅与现有因子 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" [5][10]. Core Views - TCL Technology announced the construction of an 8.6-generation printed OLED production line, with a total investment of approximately RMB 29.5 billion, expected to start construction in November 2025 [2][3]. - The project aims to enhance TCL's competitive advantage in the OLED display industry, leveraging self-owned technology to capture market growth and improve operational efficiency [3]. - The semiconductor display business is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics, with projected revenue growth from RMB 1,933.81 billion in 2025 to RMB 2,589.79 billion in 2027, and net profit increasing from RMB 6.377 billion to RMB 12.066 billion in the same period [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - TCL Technology, through its subsidiary TCL Huaxing, is collaborating with the Guangzhou government to establish a new OLED production line, which will have a monthly processing capacity of approximately 22,500 glass substrates [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for TCL Technology are as follows: RMB 1,933.81 billion in 2025, RMB 2,274.23 billion in 2026, and RMB 2,589.79 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 6.377 billion, RMB 9.325 billion, and RMB 12.066 billion [4][9]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 0.31 in 2025 to RMB 0.58 in 2027 [4][9]. Market Position - The 8.6-generation printed OLED project is seen as a strategic move to position TCL as a leader in the display industry, transitioning from a follower to a frontrunner in technology [3]. - The project is anticipated to enhance TCL's market share in high-end products and optimize its operational efficiency [3].

Group 1: Company Analysis - Dongfang Tieta (002545.SZ) - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.12 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.60 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of +98.43%, +17.16%, and +21.99% respectively [10][12] - The production of potassium chloride and phosphate projects is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth, with a target price of 17.1 yuan based on a 19x PE valuation for 2025 [10][11] - Concerns about potential oversupply in the potassium chloride and phosphate markets are mitigated by projections indicating a supply gap until 2028, suggesting sustained industry high profitability [10][11] Group 2: Company Analysis - Jinkong Coal Industry (601001.SH) - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.39 billion, and 2.80 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with EPS of 1.23, 1.43, and 1.68 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -26.58%, +15.81%, and +17.43% respectively [14][15] - The target price is set at 15.23 yuan per share, based on a combination of absolute and relative valuation methods [14][15] - The company is expected to maintain stable coal prices in the range of 700-800 yuan per ton, supported by a balanced supply-demand scenario [14][15] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Financial Data - The financial data for August indicates a decline in loan growth, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, down from 900 billion yuan year-on-year [17][18] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's 3 trillion yuan, reflecting weak credit demand [17][18] - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8%, while M1 growth accelerated to 6%, indicating a shift in deposit behavior towards equity markets [17][18] Group 4: Industry Analysis - Public Fund Market - The public fund market saw a significant increase in the total scale of non-monetary funds, reaching 10.2 trillion yuan, up 6.9% from the previous half [20][21] - Equity fund holdings increased by 5.9% to 5.14 trillion yuan, with stock index funds growing by 14.6% to 1.95 trillion yuan [20][21] - The market share of banks, brokers, and third-party institutions in equity funds was 26.2%, 17.2%, and 19.3% respectively, indicating a slight decline in market share for banks and brokers [20][21]

证券研究报告 撤单视角下的算法交易识别与Alpha捕捉 西部证券研发中心 2025年9月12日 分析师 | 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 邮箱地址：fengjiarui@xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 张逸飞 邮箱地址：zhangyifei@xbmail.com.cn 机密和专有 未经西部证券许可，任何对此资料的使用严格禁止 主要结论 本文聚焦下单-撤单时间差这一特殊的订单薄特征，挖掘算法交易驱动的订单带来的alpha。 【报告亮点】 【主要逻辑】 风险提示：数据来源第三方，或有遗漏、滞后、误差；本报告使用历史数据测算完成，存在历史统计规律失效风险；模型假设或与实际市场情况存在 差异；市场风格变化风险：市场投资风格可能发生变化，影响当前因子的有效性。 资料来源：Wind，西部证券研发中心 请仔细阅读尾部的免责声明 2 • 通过下单-撤单时间差的视角，对算法交易驱动的撤单进行识别与交易逻辑分析。 • 构建的算法交易买单撤单占比（BABR）与算法交易买卖撤单熵（ACE）因子具有较强选股效果。 • 下单-撤单时间差分布呈现脉冲式集中，集中的时间点可能代表了算法交易驱动的撤单行为。统计这类算法交易撤单 ...

Group 1: Communication Industry Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a positive spillover effect from AI computing power, with both domestic and international demand resonating [5][7]. - In H1 2025, 226 listed companies in the communication sector reported a total revenue of 1,969.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [5]. - The overall gross margin for the communication industry in Q2 2025 was 25.2%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.3 percentage points [5]. Group 2: Individual Company Performance - China Resources Beer - China Resources Beer is positioned as a leader in the Chinese beer industry, with a focus on high-end product strategies driving revenue per ton and profit margin improvements [9][10]. - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion [10]. - The implementation of a "three precision management" strategy has led to an increase in gross margin to 48.9% and net profit margin to 24.0% in H1 2025 [9][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - Peak Technology - Peak Technology achieved a revenue of 375 million in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.84% [13][14]. - The company is expanding into automotive and robotics sectors, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 760 million, 949 million, and 1.212 billion respectively [14]. - The decline in net profit by 4.52% in H1 2025 was attributed to increased stock incentive expenses, but excluding this, net profit would have grown by 18.69% [14]. Group 4: Company Performance - Longxun Co., Ltd. - Longxun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 247 million in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.35% [17][18]. - The company is focusing on automotive electronics, with expectations for revenue growth driven by the SerDes product line, which is entering full market promotion [18][19]. - Revenue forecasts for Longxun Co., Ltd. for 2025-2027 are 705 million, 1.119 billion, and 1.450 billion respectively [19]. Group 5: Company Performance - Fuzhijun Technology - Fuzhijun Technology achieved a revenue of 519 million in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 18.10% [21][22]. - The company is focusing on the ultra-precision optical field, with significant growth in its subsidiary, achieving a revenue of 76.1 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 180.08% [23]. - Revenue forecasts for Fuzhijun Technology for 2025-2027 are 1.031 billion, 1.165 billion, and 1.306 billion respectively [23]. Group 6: Company Performance - Meixinsheng - Meixinsheng reported a revenue of 265 million in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.83% [25][26]. - The optical sensor business saw a significant increase in revenue, driven by demand from leading smartwatch brands [26]. - Revenue forecasts for Meixinsheng for 2025-2027 are 653 million, 1.043 billion, and 1.417 billion respectively [27].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [5][12] Core Views - China Resources Beer is executing its high-end strategy effectively, driving up tonnage price and gross margin. The company has established a matrix of "Chinese brands + international brands" to solidify its market position and enhance product pricing [1][12] - The company is optimizing its production capacity by shutting down excess facilities, reducing the number of factories from 98 in 2017 to 60 by 2025, while maintaining a capacity of 19.2 million kiloliters [1][12] - The implementation of "Three Precision Management" has improved operational efficiency, with gross margin rising to 48.9% and net profit margin to 24.0% in the first half of 2025 [1][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beer is a leading player in the Chinese beer industry, focusing solely on beer after divesting non-beer businesses in 2015. The company has a significant market presence with a strong brand portfolio [17][19] Industry Analysis - The Chinese beer market is experiencing stagnation in sales volume, with a projected CAGR of -0.4% from 2010 to 2025. However, the retail price of beer is expected to continue rising, indicating potential for price increases [36][38][43] - The market is concentrated, with the top three players (China Resources, Tsingtao, and Budweiser) accounting for 60.1% of the market share as of 2023, suggesting limited room for further consolidation [45][47] Investment Logic - The long-term strategy focuses on high-end product development, leveraging both domestic and international brands to enhance product pricing and market share. The company aims to continue optimizing its product structure to drive tonnage price and profit margin improvements [63][68] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion yuan respectively [12][3]

汽车电子：公司 SerDes 产品进展顺利，汽车电子业务持续成长。1）车载 SerDes：综 合中国汽车工业协会、CINNO Research 等数据进行测算，我们预计 2025 年中国大陆车 载 SerDes 市场规模达到 10.88 亿美元，对应单车 SerDes 价值量 44.35 美元/辆。目前 车载 SerDes 市场被 ADI、TI 等国外厂商垄断，国内除慷智等少部分公司外产品均未产 生大规模营收。公司 SerDes 产品进展顺利，截至 25H1 车载 SerDes 芯片组进入全面市 场推广阶段，其中电动两轮车仪表盘、工业焊接 3D 摄像机等领域已逐步量产，有望于 25 年批量出货并于未来持续放量；此外公司已将 SerDes 芯片组拓展进入 eBike、摄像 云台、无人机等新领域，未来有望持续取得突破。2）汽车桥接芯片：24 年以来公司桥 接类的芯片在车载抬头显示和车载信息娱乐等系统的市场份额明显提升，25H1 公司持续 推进汽车体系建设和产品认证工作，截至 25H1 末共有 11 颗桥接类的芯片通过了 AEC-Q100 测试认证，其中 5 颗产品通过 Grade 2 认证，目前公司的桥接芯片在智 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [4] Core Insights - The communication industry showed steady growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 1,969.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [9][39] - In Q2 2025, the revenue of the communication industry reached 1,032.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [15] - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is driving growth in related sectors, particularly in optical devices and modules, as well as IoT [2][40] Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry 25H1 Performance - Total revenue for 226 listed companies was 1,969.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 164.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and 9.4% respectively [9] - Excluding the three major operators and Industrial Fulian, revenue grew by 20.4% to 595.39 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 15.3% to 38.86 billion yuan [9] 2. Communication Industry 25Q2 Performance - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 1,032.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [15] - Excluding the three major operators and Industrial Fulian, revenue increased by 17.6% to 320.57 billion yuan, and net profit rose by 13.3% to 22.20 billion yuan [15] 3. Communication Industry 25H1 Individual Stock Performance - Companies with over 25% revenue and net profit growth were primarily in the IoT and optical device sectors [39] - Key growth drivers included rapid overseas AI computing infrastructure development and increased domestic investment in intelligent computing centers [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies benefiting from AI computing investments, including those in North America and domestic markets [3] - Continued attention to sectors like edge AI and satellite internet, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 375 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.84%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 4.52% to 117 million yuan [2][3] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to increased stock incentive expenses, which rose by 31.97 million yuan compared to the previous year. Excluding this factor, the total profit increased by 23.40% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 18.69% [3] - The company is expanding its market presence in various sectors, including smart small appliances, automotive electronics, and industrial robotics, which contributed to the revenue growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 375 million yuan, up 32.84% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 117 million yuan, down 4.52% [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 204 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.70% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.07% [2] Market Segmentation - In the smart small appliances sector, the company accounted for 53.93% of sales in H1 2025. The revenue share from white goods increased to 20.89% [4] - The automotive electronics segment saw the revenue contribution from automotive-grade chips rise to 10.12% [4] - The industrial and robotics sector contributed 14.27% to the total revenue, with ongoing development in industrial servo applications [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 760 million yuan, 949 million yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 306 million yuan, 388 million yuan, and 484 million yuan for the same years [5][6] - The successful listing on the Hong Kong stock market and expansion into emerging fields such as automotive and humanoid robotics are anticipated to drive future growth [4][6]