行业点评 | 计算机 从 Copilot 到 Agent：AI 编程的范式革新 AI Coding 正在成为 Agent 商业化的突破口。我们认为编程领域的规则明确 性为 Agent 应用提供了天然约束框架，编程环境的技术特性为 Agent 自纠错 提供了理想试验场，同时编程原子化任务与大模型链式推理机制深度契合。 而在需求端，企业开发效率的刚需则创造了明确付费意愿，AI 编程领域已逐 步形成"技术验证-产品迭代-商业变现"的完整闭环。 AI 大模型在编程中的应用发展分为"Copilot→Agent→Multi-Agent"三个 阶段，目前各大厂商 AI coding 产品多处于第一阶段向第二阶段迈进的关键 节点。1）第一阶段：LLM as Copilot。大模型作为 Copilot，辅助程序员完 成任务，但并不改变软件工程的专业分工。2）第二阶段：LLM as Agent。 Agent 能够自主完成一部分任务，成为一个单一职能专家，能够自主使用工 具完成预定的任务。人在这个阶段的作用是给定上下文完成知识对齐。3） 第三阶段：LLM as Multi-Agent。多智能体互相协作完成复杂任务，人类则 负责创意 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company is actively extending its layout in the computing ecosystem by launching products and solutions in storage, cybersecurity, big data, and cloud computing, achieving a full industry chain layout [2] - The company has invested in several quality assets, forming comprehensive coverage of the computing power industry chain, from upstream chips and server hardware to downstream cloud service providers [2] - With the expansion of capital expenditure by downstream customers and continuous optimization of products for generative AI scenarios, the company is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and accelerate the commercialization of new-generation products [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 5.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1][4] - The direct sales model generated revenue of 12.191 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.60%, up 0.93 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The distribution model generated revenue of 910 million yuan, down 16% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.25%, up 0.07 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The company effectively controlled accounts receivable, which amounted to 2.268 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [1] Future Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.805 billion yuan, 3.489 billion yuan, and 3.996 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 46.8%, 24.4%, and 14.5% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.54 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2025 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.16 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 0.35, 0.38, and 0.41 CNY [1][16]. - The report highlights a shift in the steel industry from administrative to market-driven capacity reduction, indicating a turning point in the sector [2][13]. - The company's integrated layout is seen as a key growth driver, focusing on high-end and international markets, which aligns with the industrial development strategy of Nanjing [3][14]. Industry Overview - The steel industry is undergoing a supply-side reform characterized by high-end, green, and intelligent production methods, along with industry consolidation [2][38]. - The report notes that the demand side of the steel industry is under pressure, with economic benefits expected to decline in the first half of 2024 [45]. Company Analysis - The company has a comprehensive industrial layout that enhances its return on equity (ROE) stability while seeking new growth points [3][14]. - The focus on high-end products and international markets is increasing, with a growing share of high-margin export business [3][14]. - The company is positioned as a key player in Nanjing's industrial strategy, likely to receive more policy and resource support [3][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 71.58 billion, 72.42 billion, and 73.74 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.8% [11][16]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for net profits from 2024 to 2026, significantly higher than the industry average [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Overweight" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [49]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs as of March 7 is 14.45 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.41% from the previous week, while year-on-year prices remain stable. Major pig farming companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, reported significant year-on-year increases in their pig output for January and February, with growth rates of 10.54% and 20.58% respectively [1][8]. - In the poultry sector, the average price of white feathered broilers has rebounded slightly to 6.59 CNY/kg, up 8.03% week-on-week, but remains low due to oversupply, leading to significant losses for farmers [2][9]. - The Chinese government has announced tariffs on certain agricultural products from the U.S. and Canada, including a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, and corn, and a 10% tariff on soybeans and pork. This is expected to have limited impact on domestic corn and wheat prices due to low import dependency [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 14.45 CNY/kg, down 0.41% week-on-week, with major companies reporting increased output [1][8]. - The slaughter volume from March 1 to March 7 was 984,600 pigs, up 3.53% week-on-week and 3.04% year-on-year [1][8]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 127.06 kg, with a higher proportion of larger pigs being sold [1][8]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feathered broilers is 6.59 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 8.03% but still low due to oversupply [2][9]. - The price of broiler chicks is 2.54 CNY/chick, up 10.92% week-on-week, but still below the cost line for farmers [2][9]. - Profit margins for broiler farming remain negative, with losses reported for both broilers and parent stock [2][9]. 3. Agricultural Products - Tariffs on U.S. and Canadian agricultural products are expected to have limited impact on domestic prices due to low import dependency for corn and wheat [3][11]. - The average prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans as of March 7 are 2,424.61 CNY/ton, 2,229.12 CNY/ton, and 3,856.79 CNY/ton respectively, with wheat and soybeans showing a decline [10][30]. 4. Feed Industry - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year, with notable growth in pet feed [12][14]. - Prices for various types of feed have shown mixed trends, with pig feed prices at 3.37 CNY/kg, up 0.30% week-on-week [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry and recommends a strategic focus on AI software applications and related sectors [1][2][3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation driven by AI technology, highlighting the resurgence of market interest in AI themes and the potential for investment in the AI software application sector [1] - It identifies opportunities in the domestic AI computing power supply chain, particularly in cloud service providers, computing power leasing, and various hardware components [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing sustained interest, with a trend of expanding from structural components to electronic components, indicating potential for collaborative development within the electronics industry [3] - The report also notes the value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, driven by advancements in large model technology and the open-source movement [3] - The consumer electronics panel supply-demand dynamics are improving, with signs of price increases due to rising demand and supply-side adjustments [6] Summary by Sections AI Industry - Continued optimism regarding the growth potential of the AI industry, particularly in software applications and computing power supply chains [1][2] - Key companies mentioned include: 用友网络, 金蝶国际, 汉得信息, and others [1] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expanding, with electronic architecture similar to that of intelligent driving systems [3] - Relevant companies include: 峰岹科技, 思瑞浦, and others [3] Internet Sector - The report highlights the ongoing value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly for Tencent Holdings due to its diverse AI application scenarios [3] Consumer Electronics - The report suggests investment opportunities in the panel industry, with companies like TCL 科技, 彩虹股份, and 京东方 being highlighted [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][12]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 9.162 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.931 billion, up 53% [1][5]. - The company has proactively increased strategic inventory to meet downstream demand, ending 2024 with inventory valued at 5.425 billion, a 405% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is heavily investing in research and development, with R&D expenses amounting to 2.910 billion in 2024, a 46% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 91.62 billion, with a growth rate of 52.4% compared to 2023 [3]. - The net profit for 2024 was 19.31 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 52.9% [3]. - The company expects revenue to grow to 132.78 billion, 179.19 billion, and 232.87 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 45%, 35%, and 30% [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.2% in February, returning to the expansion zone [1][8][30]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has continued its recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, with the February manufacturing PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion [1][2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also saw a slight increase, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, driven by a significant recovery in the construction sector due to infrastructure activities [2][22]. - Fiscal expansion is expected to support economic growth in the first half of the year, with increased corporate loan growth and accelerated government bond financing [2][24]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, and the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1%, both exceeding the highs of the previous quarter [6][10]. - The recovery in manufacturing is primarily driven by large enterprises, with their PMI increasing by 2.6 percentage points to 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises saw declines [6][15]. - Manufacturing prices have stabilized, with the raw material purchase price index rising by 1.3 percentage points to 50.8% and the factory price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 48.5% [6][17]. - Employment in the manufacturing sector also improved, with the employment index rising by 0.5 percentage points to 48.6%, the highest since May 2023 [6][18]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI increased slightly, with the service sector PMI declining by 0.3 percentage points to 50%, while the construction sector PMI surged by 3.4 percentage points to 52.7% [2][22]. - The construction sector's recovery is attributed to warming weather post-Spring Festival, the commencement of investment projects, and the gradual resumption of operations by enterprises [2][22]. Economic Support - The report highlights that fiscal policies are expected to expand further in 2025, providing additional support for economic growth in the first half of the year [2][24].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent credit bond market has experienced a significant yield adjustment, with the duration and magnitude of this adjustment being the second highest since 2022 [2][8][19] - The adjustment has lasted for 14 days as of the end of February 2025, with the maximum drawdown of the medium to long-term pure bond fund index reaching 61 basis points [8][9][10] - The report highlights that the tightening of the funding environment is a common factor influencing the recent adjustments, similar to the situation observed in August to October 2023 [13][14] Group 2 - In the primary market, the issuance scale of credit bonds in February decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year, with a total of 44 credit bonds canceled, marking the fifth highest cancellation scale since 2022 [2][6][12] - The secondary market saw a decline in transaction activity for city investment bonds and financial bonds, while the turnover rate for industrial bonds increased [2][4][6] - The report suggests that the core variables affecting credit bond trends are the funding environment and institutional behavior, with limited potential for further significant increases in credit bond yields [17][19][20] Group 3 - The report recommends a strategy of focusing on short-duration bonds and selectively timing investments in medium to long-duration bonds, particularly after the release of policy signals from the National People's Congress [5][17] - It is anticipated that the adjustment space for short-duration non-financial credit bonds may be within 20 basis points, while medium to long-duration bonds are expected to have a limited adjustment space of around 10 basis points [14][19] - The report emphasizes that the demand for credit bonds remains supported by the net buying activity of wealth management products during the recent market adjustment [20][21]

宏观点评报告 春节消费较为活跃。春节期间，国内出游总花费同比增长 7%（图表 5），全 国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 4.1%（图表 6）。春运期间，全国铁 路发送旅客同比增长 6.1%（图表 7），全国民航运输旅客同比增长 7.4%（图 表 8）。预计 1-2 月份零售累计同比增长 3.9%，较 12 月增速 3.7%加快。 政府融资加快，促进投资。1、2 月建筑业 PMI 先降后升（图表 9）。节后基 础设施项目建设施工进度加快，2 月土木工程建筑业 PMI 回升至 65.1% [1]。 年初以来，地方政府债券发行量较大（图表 10）。政府融资可能促进基建投 资增长。预计 1-2 月份固定资产投资累计同比增长 3.3%，较 2024 年累计增 速 3.2%加快。 出口增速可能回落。1-2 月份，韩国出口同比下降 4.7%，增速转负（图表 11）。中国出口集装箱运价指数年初以来有所回落（图表 12）。2 月 1 日美国 白宫宣布以芬太尼等问题为由对中国输美产品加征 10%关税[2]。2 月 27 日 美方威胁将于 3 月 4 日起对中国输美产品再加征 10%关税 [3]。贸易摩擦可 能给出口造成扰动。 ...