大家好欢迎参加西部证券出海系列一总量联合行业新思路新主线新组合目前所有参会者均处于静状态现在开始播报免责声明 本次电话会议服务于西部证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险西部证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不涉及国家保密信息内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作 或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经西部证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利各位尊敬的粉丝朋友大家晚上好我是西部宏观分析师卞庆水 非常感谢大家抽着宝贵时间参加西部证券总量行业联合电话会议那么今天我们的主题是讲一个出海的系列我们今天是第一次会议宏观策略联合了九位行业的分析师老师向大家介绍一下我们关于出海的一个观点我先从总量方面从第五次产业转移的角度 来谈一下我国当前出海的一个特征我们为什么要从这个角度这个宏观上为什么要从第五次产业转移的角度来谈出海呢因为我们看到当下 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call focuses on Western Mining, a company in the mining industry, highlighting its quality mines and top-tier management as key growth drivers [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The company is expected to experience renewed growth momentum due to its high-quality mining assets and effective management practices [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of management in driving the company's performance, suggesting that leadership quality is as crucial as the mining assets themselves [1].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Changying Precision (300115 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Changying Precision has formed a dual-pillar strategy focusing on consumer electronics precision components and new energy components [1] - The company is expected to see significant growth driven by its titanium alloy frames and XR components in consumer electronics, as well as capacity expansion in new energy components [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from 16 732 billion yuan in 2024 to 23 558 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit increasing from 780 million yuan to 1 039 billion yuan over the same period [1][2] Business Overview - Changying Precision is a leading manufacturer of precision electronic components, with a strong presence in both consumer electronics and new energy sectors [1][15] - The company has established partnerships with major clients like Apple, Samsung, Tesla, and CATL [1][15] Consumer Electronics - The company is benefiting from the adoption of titanium alloy frames in smartphones and the growth of XR (Extended Reality) components, particularly with Apple's MR (Mixed Reality) products [1][24][30] - The laptop business is expected to grow due to the AI PC trend, with global laptop shipments projected to increase by 11% in 2024 [24][25] - The company has successfully implemented full-process titanium alloy manufacturing, which is expected to drive growth in the Android smartphone market [30][34] New Energy Components - Changying Precision has expanded its new energy business, particularly in battery structural components and high-voltage electrical connections, with significant capacity expansions in Ningde, Liyang, and Yibin [1][42][52] - The company has entered Tesla's supply chain and is a key supplier for Model 3 and Model Y components [42][54] - The global new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, with China's penetration rate reaching 31 6% in 2023, driving demand for battery structural components [44][46] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 16 732 billion yuan in 2024 to 23 558 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit increasing from 780 million yuan to 1 039 billion yuan [1][2] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 22 10% in 2024 to 23 66% in 2026, driven by higher-margin projects and increased capacity utilization [55][56] Valuation - The report values Changying Precision at 22x PE for 2024, corresponding to a market cap of 17 2 billion yuan [57] - Comparable companies in the consumer electronics and new energy sectors include Goertek, Luxshare, and Kedali, with average PE ratios of 20 97x for 2024 and 16 42x for 2025 [57][58]

金工量化专题报告 指数成份股调整预测（2024 年 6 月） 证券研究报告 2024年05月14日 冲击效应与交易机会  核心结论 分析师 ETF指数基金的规模近来大幅提升，指数成份股调整事件将触发这些基金的 被动调仓，形成特定时间及特定方向的资金流动，我们预判或将产生远高于 冯佳睿 S0800524040008 往年的冲击效应，是当前值得积极参与的交易机会。2024 年第一次指数成 13564917688 份股调整方案预计将于5月31日公布，并将于6月14日收盘后生效。 fengjiarui@research.xbmail.com.cn 相关研究 根据中证公司等公布的指数编制调整方法，本文估算了主要指数本次成份股 缩量持续上攻，修复低位板块—技术分析洞察 调整的结果。我们预测沪深300指数将调整10只样本股，海航控股、沪农 （2024.04.29-2024.05.10） 2024-05-13 商行、上海电气等将被调入，科沃斯、斯达半导、天山股份等将被调出。中 珍惜底部筹码，积极开展布局—技术分析洞察 （ 20240422-20240426） 2024-04-30 证500指数将调整50只样本股，凯赛生物、 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment rating for the building materials and home furnishing industry, highlighting resilience amidst challenges [1]. Core Insights - The industry has shown signs of recovery with a revenue increase of 4.02% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 241.9 billion yuan, while net profit surged by 29.45% to 19.5 billion yuan, primarily due to declining raw material prices [8][10]. - Profitability has improved, with the gross margin at 30.86%, up by 1.75 percentage points, and net margin at 8.17%, up by 1.63 percentage points [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of both "To B" and "To C" business models, noting that retail businesses have shown stronger resilience against real estate cycles [28]. Revenue and Profit Trends - The total industry revenue in 2023 is close to the five-year high, although it has not yet returned to the peak level of 244.7 billion yuan in 2021 [10]. - The net profit for 2023 has exceeded the 2021 figure, marking a near five-year high [10]. - In Q1 2024, sample companies achieved a revenue of 438 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.09% [11]. Segment Performance - Revenue growth in 2023 improved across most segments compared to 2022, with notable increases in the drying rack, door and window, and gypsum board sectors [12]. - The drying rack industry maintained a high profitability level, while the gypsum board sector, despite a decline, remained above many other industries [19]. - The capital expenditure index for the industry has decreased, indicating a contraction in supply, which may alleviate competitive pressure and improve profitability in the long run [23][25]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The cash collection ratio and net cash ratio for sample companies improved to 109% and 187%, respectively, indicating enhanced cash flow management [20]. - The report highlights a reduction in accounts receivable, reflecting improved operational quality within the industry [20]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - In 2023, sample companies distributed dividends totaling 11.5 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 59.08%, marking a continuous increase over five years [25]. - The dividend yield for 2023 is reported at 3.20%, with higher yields observed in the custom/board and door/window segments [25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In 2023, the total asset growth rate of A+H listed banks remained high at 11.2%, with asset quality improving and risks being generally controllable. However, the trend of "regularization" of deposits continues, leading to an overall increase in deposit costs and a record low net interest margin [1][9][30] - Looking ahead to 2024, asset quality is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, but attention should be paid to related risks. The trend of deposit "regularization" may gradually ease, and the probability of further reduction in deposit costs is high. Although the net interest margin may still be in a downward channel, the extent of the decline may narrow [1][11][30] Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Situation Summary and Outlook - The total asset growth rate of listed banks in 2023 was 11.2%, with asset quality continuing to improve. The risk is generally controllable, but attention is needed for weaker regional rural commercial banks [9][30] - The loan structure shows a significant decline in the proportion of mortgage loans, with real estate loans still showing no signs of recovery [20][30] 2. Asset Side - The total asset scale of A+H listed banks reached 288.7 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.20% [13] - The asset structure indicates a differentiation in loan proportions, with interbank assets decreasing and bond investments increasing [18][30] - The proportion of personal housing loans has significantly decreased to 21.2%, the lowest level since 2017 [20][30] - The overall non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.59%, but rural commercial banks showed an increase in risk [22][30] 3. Liability Side - The overall structure of interest-bearing liabilities remained stable, with a slight increase in the proportion of deposits for joint-stock banks and city commercial banks [32][30] - The trend of "regularization" of deposits continues, with a notable increase in the proportion of fixed-term deposits [34][30] - Deposit costs have risen, but there is an expectation for a decline in 2024 due to regulatory changes and market conditions [40][30] 4. Profitability - The net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.69%, the lowest since 2017, with significant pressure on both sides of the balance sheet [41][30] - The average cost of deposits increased, but there is an expectation for a reduction in 2024 as high-interest deposit behaviors are regulated [40][30] 5. Capital Adequacy Ratio - The capital adequacy ratio of listed banks has shown an overall upward trend, but the performance varies among different types of banks [3][30]

固定收益周报 供需矛盾下，短端下沉与高等级拉久期凸显 证券研究报告 信用周报 20240510 2024年05月12日  核心结论 分析师 摘要内容 姜珮珊 S0800524020002 本周（2024/5/6-5/10）信用债收益率表现不一。低评级信用债整体下行幅度 15692145933 相对较大，2年期和3年期AA级中短票收益率较上周均下行8bp。 jiangpeishan@research.xbmail.com.cn 分品种来看，城投债表现不同期限、不同评级的城投债收益率均明显走低， 联系人 短端低评级、中长端高评级下行幅度较大，说明资产荒背景下市场主要通过 雍雨凡 短久期信用下沉和高评级拉长久期的策略获取收益。各省份公募城投债收益 15861817961 率延续下行趋势，其中贵州、青海和云南下行幅度不低于10bp。 yongyufan@research.xbmail.com.cn 地产债表现有所分化，不同期限中高评级券种收益率较上周有所下降，但 相关研究 AA 级地产债收益率抬升；金融债中短端表现优于长端，其中 1 年期银行二 生产加速扩张，内需仍待改善 —4月PMI数 据点评 2024-05-0 ...