abc 2024 年 08 月 13 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 万华化学 二季度净利润环比下滑3.4%，略低于我们预期 二季度实现净利润40.2亿元 公司上半年实现营业收入971亿元，同比增长11%；实现净利润81.7亿元， 同比下滑4.6%。其中二季度净利润同比/环比下滑11%/3.4%至40.2亿元， 略低于我们预期，我们认为主要由于：1）聚氨酯价差环比下降。我们测算 二季度MDI加权价差/TDI价差环比下滑4%/18%；且海外BC子公司上半年盈 利低于我们预期。2）石化板块景气度环比改善，但毛利率仍承压。3）新材 料板块虽销量同比/环比增长，但毛利率同比下滑5个百分点。4）公司上半 年期间费用率同比增长0.7个百分点至5.5%，另外所得税率同比增长5个百 分点至14%。 聚氨酯和石化景气度仍承压，销量小幅增长 二季度公司聚氨酯板块销售单价环比下滑2.6%，但销量环比增长5.3%，带 动板块收入环比增长2.6%。分产品来看，聚合MDI市场均价环比增长6%， 但纯MDI/TDI价格环比下滑7%/11%，且原材料苯/甲苯价格环比上 升7%/9%，拖累MDI加权 ...

abc 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|--------------- ...

ab 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

快评 华测检测 H124扣非净利润同比增长5%，落在此前业绩 预告中端 问：相对于预期，业绩表现如何？ 答：H124公司收入/扣非净利同比增9%/5%至27.9亿元/4.0亿元。Q224收入 同比增11%至16亿元，扣非净利同比增9%至2.9亿元，落在此前业绩预告 中端（此前业绩预告：H1扣非净利同比+4%~+6%），大致符合我们和市场 预期。Q224毛利率同比/环比提升1.6ppt/7.4ppt至52.7%，我们认为主要由 于：1）Q124基数较低；2）第三次土壤普查毛利率较普通环境检测略高； 和3）双碳、ESG、建工等板块毛利率有所提升。Q224扣非净利率同比下 降0.4ppt/环比提升8.7ppt至18.2%，我们认为环比大幅提升主要由于Q124 基数低。 问：业绩中最值得关注的是什么？ 答：分板块来看，生命科学（H1收入占比45%）：H1收入同比增长22%、 主要得益于第三次全国土壤普查的开展，毛利率同比改善1.4ppt至49.4%。 工业测试（H1收入占比20%）：H1收入同比增长14%，主要来自建工板 块、计量校准和认证（含双碳）业务的高速增长，毛利率同比提升2.5ppt 至45.5%。贸易保障（ ...

abc 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 分众传媒 Q224业绩超预期，派发中期分红；预计自Q3 起环比进一步改善 Q2营收和净利超预期 尽管宏观经济复苏较慢，分众传媒在品牌广告领域持续表现出色。Q224营 收同比/环比增长10%/19%至32.4亿元，比我们的预期/Visible Alpha一致预 期高6%/5%。营收增速提升以及营业成本节省部分被营业费用增加所抵 消。因此，调整后净利润同比/环比增长7%/32%至12.5亿元，比我们的预 期/一致预期高6%/5%。按广告垂类划分，H1快消品同比增长14%，主要受 化妆品（+70%）、个护（+47%）、食品（+30%）的强劲增长推动，而乳 制品和酒类行业广告需求疲软。此外，家居建材和3C广告需求良好。管理 层指出，公司在获得国际品牌份额方面进展良好（H1收入同比+20%），因 改善了此类广告主分类的销售覆盖并加强了客户教育。 业绩后电话会主要亮点 1）Q3广告业务展望：管理层指出，夏季奥运会广告预算良好，叠加广告主 即将到来的中秋节/国庆假期预算，应会推动Q3广告收入环比增长。公司凭 借 ...

abc 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 中国股票策略 公募基金申赎：原因、资金流向与展望 股票策略 中国 主动管理类公募受制于历史表现，而被动管理类基金份额提升 近期公募基金被投资者赎回及其对A股市场的影响受到市场的关注。我们将 公募基金拆分成主动管理类基金（包括灵活配置型基金、偏股混合型基金和 普通股票型基金）和被动管理类基金（包括剔除ETF联接基金或指数增强基 金的被动指数型基金）这两类来进行分析。（1）主动管理类基金的总份额 在今年第一季度和第二季度分别减少了1367亿份（近十年来除2015年第三 季度以外的单季之最）和568亿份。历史上来看，主动类公募基金的回报表 现往往是其募资情况的领先指标。在过去的两年多的时间里，A股市场总体 呈下行态势，股票型和混合型公募基金自2022年初以来分别回调36% 和28%，遭受亏损的投资者可能不愿进一步将资金投入基金产品，甚至赎回 其持有的基金份额。（2）被动管理类基金的总份额在2024年上半年提 升2077亿份。其中，2024年第一季度被动基金的总规模大增3113亿元，为 历史单季最高水平。值得注 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from Rmb10.90 to Rmb10.40 [4][5][17]. Core Views - The company's net profit for 1H24 was Rmb41 billion, down 4% year-on-year, which was below expectations from UBS and the market. The performance was primarily supported by fixed income investments, while core business revenues continued to decline [2][3]. - The fund distribution business saw a significant revenue drop of 29% year-on-year in 1H24, attributed to a decline in market share and trailing commission rates. The brokerage business also experienced a 10% year-on-year revenue decline, with market share expansion slowing [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the fund distribution business due to multiple factors, including declining market share, reduced fees for public funds, and potential regulatory changes affecting trailing commission rates [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H24 fund distribution revenue decreased by 29% year-on-year, with total fund sales amounting to Rmb8,514 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year. The market for newly issued funds grew by 25% year-on-year, primarily driven by bond funds [3]. - The brokerage business revenue fell by 10% year-on-year, underperforming the industry average decline of 8%. This was mainly due to a 4% drop in commission rates and slowing market share expansion [3]. - Net interest income increased by 7% year-on-year, with a slight market share gain in financing business [3]. Earnings Forecast - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 3-5% to reflect the lower-than-expected net profit for 1H24 [4]. - The target price adjustment reflects a valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, implying a 17x P/E for 2025E [4]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading financial information service platform in China, with its "East Money" website being one of the most visited financial news sites [9]. - The online trading platform "Tiantian Fund" is noted as the largest fund management platform in China, approved by the CSRC as an independent third-party fund sales institution [9].

abc 2024 年 08 月 09 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 宏发股份 Q224业绩略超预期， 汽车板块市占率快速提升 问：相对于预期，业绩表现如何？ H124收入/归母净利72.3亿元/8.4亿元，同比+9/+15% H 1 2 4 收 入 / 归 母 净 利 润 占 我 们 此 前 预 期 5 1 / 5 5 % ， 占 一 致 预 期50/52%（过去5年平均：49/49%），业绩略超我们/市场预期 Q224营收/归母净利38/4.9亿元，同比+12/+22%（Q124: +6/+8%） Q224毛利率34.6%，同比下降1.4ppts（铜银涨价，但结构改善） Q224汇兑影响（汇兑损益+结汇）0.67亿元，Q223汇兑影响0.91亿元 问：业绩中最值得关注的是什么？ Q 2 2 4 家 电 / 汽 车 / 电 动 车 板 块 发 货 1 1 . 5 亿 元 / 5 . 7 亿 / 8 . 1 亿 ， 同 比+5/+51/+34%（受益市占率提升，汽车板块表现好于我们预期） Q224风光储板块发货发货2.4亿，同比持平（Q124同比-34%），公司 表 ...

ab 2024 年 07 月 25 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 全球宏观经济与策略 | 宏观经济 | | 美国大选：投资者最关注的10（+1）个问题 | | | | Jonathan Pingle 经济学家 | | 解惑投资者最关注的一系列问题 本报告中，我们对投资者最关心的一系列问题予以解答。对于每个问题，我 | jonathan.pingle@ubs.com +1-212-713 2225 | | 们会进行一页文字阐述，并附有几张图表。报告摘要见第2-3页，我们共回 答了10个主要问题以及一个附加问题。 十大问题如下： | Arend Kapteyn 经济学家 are ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 4.943 million units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 32%, with expectations for total sales to exceed 12 million units for the year [17] - The expected output of energy storage batteries for the entire year of 2024 is approximately 240 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20%, although the growth rate is slowing due to a high base from the surge in November-December 2023 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The shipment volume of power batteries increased by 19% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which is lower than the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales, primarily due to the increased proportion of PHVE, leading to a decrease in the energy capacity per vehicle [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The expert anticipates that the production of batteries and battery materials in Q3 2024 will see a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5-10%, which is below market expectations of 10-20%, mainly due to weak energy storage demand [17][4] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a bottoming period from 2024 to 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [17] - The industry is facing potential downward risks, including commodity price volatility and government policies on electric vehicles, which could significantly impact company and industry performance [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the mass production progress of composite current collectors (copper foil) in H2 2024, while also highlighting the ongoing pressure on separator prices and the expectation of a recovery in negative electrode and copper foil prices [4][17] Other Important Information - The anticipated elimination rate of domestic battery material companies from 2023 to 2026 is expected to reach 50-60%, with higher elimination rates in sub-industries with many new entrants, such as lithium iron phosphate cathodes, negative electrodes, and electrolytes [17] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the outlook for the lithium battery industry in the coming years? - Experts predict that the lithium battery industry will experience a bottoming period in 2024-2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [17] Question: How is the demand for energy storage batteries expected to change? - The expected output of energy storage batteries for 2024 is approximately 240 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 20%, although the growth rate is slowing due to a high base from the previous year [17] Question: What are the key technologies for performance improvement in the industry? - Key technologies include nano-silicon carbon anodes, wet-process separators, and composite current collectors, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [17]