该行指，古茗管理层重申其2030年达到30,000家门店的长期目标，根据该行的估计，这将支撑约20%的年 均门店增长。古茗目前已进入20个省份，其中三大核心省份(浙江、江西、福建)约占总门店数的40%(相较于中 国总人口的11%)，显示其在非核心地区的扩张潜力。 瑞银将古茗2025至2027年的每股盈利预测上调6%至11%，主要受惠于收入预测上调6%至12%，分别达到115 亿元、141亿元和172亿元人民币，料得益于：1)在内地三、四线城市及更多地区的开店速度快于预期;2)料 2025年同店销售同比增长6%，受到咖啡饮品推出的推动。 瑞银发布研报称，古茗(01364)今年以来同店销售增长约10%，开店计划已达1,500至2,000家，均优于该行 先前的预估。该行将基于现金流折现(DCF)估值方式，将古茗目标价从19.28港元上调至31.15港元，此相当于 预测2025年及2026年市盈率分别为34倍和27倍，2025年动态市盈率为1.4倍，低于新消费同业2025、2026年平 均预测市盈率43倍和35倍及2025年平均动态市盈率1.9倍。该行维持对古茗"买入"评级。 该行认为古茗超出预期的表现得益于公司产品 ...

Fast Take Estun Automation Headline Company announced H-share listing plan and stock incentive plan. Our Take abc 5 June 2025 12m price target Rmb10.30 Price (04 Jun 2025) Rmb19.38 RIC: 002747.SZ BBG: 002747 CS Trading data and key metrics | 52-wk range | Rmb27.48-11.60 | | --- | --- | | Market cap. | Rmb16.9b/US$2.34b | | Shares o/s | 870m (ORDA) | | Free float | 90% | | Avg. daily volume ('000) | 28,889 | | Avg. daily value (m) | Rmb626.3 | | Common s/h equity (12/24E) | Rmb2.66b | | P/BV (12/24E) | 6.3x ...

ab 5 June 2025 Global Research ASPEED Technology Inc Upgrade to Buy; accelerating TAM and silicon content expansion Strengthening foothold in AI and traditional servers Valuation: upgrade to Buy from Neutral, with new price target of NT$5,000 We are turning more constructive about Aspeed's growth in the next three years (25- 27E), driven by both AI servers and traditional servers. Our enhanced addressable market analysis (Figure 2-Figure 4) indicates that Aspeed's baseboard management controller (BMC) deman ...

Global Research ab 4 June 2025 First Read Naver Corp 2025 AIC: Navigating AI disruption and eCommerce shifts Search strategy amid AI disruption Naver acknowledged rising pressure from generative AI services, particularly in non- commercial search categories where queries seek specific answers (e.g. fact-based Q&A, summaries). These query types had already been declining before ChatGPT's launch, with Google holding a ~60% share in non-commercial queries. Naver remains strong in commercial searches (~80% mark ...

ab 4 June 2025 Global Research IDP Education Quality bus., tough conditions - Upgrade to Buy Very low expectations priced in at current levels, business is not broken Uncertainty surrounding gov policy across all geographies continues to weigh on 2H25, a risk we flagged with the UK Immigration white paper (refer note). Despite losing some mkt share within IELTS, in our view IEL remains a high quality business, operating in challenging conditions. The incremental UK uncertainty has unfolded right before the ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Qifu Technology with a 12-month price target of US$58.50, while the current price is US$42.94 [5][25]. Core Insights - Qifu Technology is experiencing stable operating trends in Q2 2025, with a modest quarter-over-quarter decline in loan volume expected due to a strong Q1 and a soft start in Q2 [2]. - The company reaffirms its 2025 net take rate target of 5.2-5.3%, indicating a positive outlook for loan volume growth of 6-7% [3]. - Regulatory risks are considered manageable, with expectations for better clarity on new loan facilitation regulations before October [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Qifu Technology's revenues are projected to grow from Rmb16,939 million in 2024 to Rmb18,793 million in 2025, with net earnings expected to increase from Rmb6,264 million in 2024 to Rmb6,857 million in 2025 [8]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from Rmb42.38 in 2024 to Rmb53.52 in 2025 [6]. Market Position - The company is a leading loan facilitation platform in China, focusing on consumer loans and utilizing both credit-driven and platform service models [10]. - The market capitalization of Qifu Technology is approximately US$5.96 billion, with a free float of 79% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 5.8 for 2025 and a P/BV ratio of 1.6, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [8]. - Forecast returns include a price appreciation of 36.2% and a dividend yield of 3.4%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 39.7% [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Merchants Port (CMPort) and Qingdao Port International (QPIC), while Daqin Railway is rated as "Sell" [63]. Core Insights - The transport infrastructure outlook has been revised positively due to the reduction of reciprocal tariff rates between the US and China, leading to improved volume growth forecasts for 2025 [2]. - Passenger volume is expected to outperform freight volume in 2025, with railway passenger volume projected to grow by 6% YoY and highway freight volume by 4% YoY [4][5]. - Container throughput at key Chinese ports has shown resilience, with a 5% YoY increase in May and a 9% increase YTD, although a decline is expected in 2025 and 2026 [3][8]. Summary by Sections Ports - Container throughput growth at major Chinese ports is forecasted to decrease by 1% to 2% YoY in 2025 and 2026, following a strong performance in early 2025 [3][8]. - Key ports like CMPort and Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) have had their earnings estimates fine-tuned by 2-3% due to expected deceleration in throughput growth [3]. Toll Roads - Highway freight volume is projected to grow by 4% YoY in 2025, while passenger volume is expected to see minimal growth of 1% YoY [4][20]. - The expressway truck traffic is anticipated to grow by 2% YoY in 2025, with similar flat growth expected in 2026 [22]. Railways - Rail passenger volume is expected to grow by 6% YoY in 2025, with freight volume stable at a 2% growth rate [5][28]. - The number of rail services has increased by 11% YoY in May, indicating strong demand for rail travel [5]. Earnings and Price Target Revisions - CMPort's price target has been raised from HK$14.80 to HK$16.90, reflecting a 3% increase in earnings estimates for 2025-2027 due to better-than-expected container volume [35]. - QPIC's price target has been slightly increased from HK$7.30 to HK$7.50, based on new container throughput forecasts and a higher-than-expected profit contribution from associates [38]. - SIPG's price target has been raised from Rmb5.50 to Rmb5.80, maintaining a Neutral rating while reflecting better-than-expected container volume growth [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Mainfreight with a price target of NZ$82.00 based on current market conditions [10][28]. Core Insights - Mainfreight's FY25 results slightly exceeded UBS estimates and market consensus, primarily driven by performance in Australia, although the outlook is mixed due to tariff impacts [2][7]. - The company reported revenue of $5.24 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, and underlying EBITDAR of $792 million, a 6% increase year-over-year [3][4]. - Underlying NPAT decreased by 1% year-over-year to $274 million, which was still above UBS estimates and market consensus [3][4]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics include: - Revenue: $5.24 billion (+11% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $5.10 billion - Underlying EBITDAR: $792 million (+6% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $737 million - Underlying NPAT: $274 million (-1% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $267 million [3][4]. - The company experienced mixed performance across regions, with notable declines in the US and Asia, while Australia showed strong growth [4][7]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a 12-month price target of NZ$82, derived from an average of P/E (26x) and DCF valuations [5][10]. - The current market cap is NZ$6.70 billion (approximately US$4.00 billion) with a free cash flow of $163 million [10][3]. Guidance and Outlook - No specific guidance was provided, but trading in April and May was described as "disappointing" due to short trading weeks and initial US tariff disruptions [6][7]. - The outlook for US operations indicates potential improvement in A&O and Warehousing earnings in FY26, despite current challenges [7][6]. Company Overview - Mainfreight, established in 1978, has evolved into a global freight forwarder with operations in 20 countries and a workforce of over 6,000 employees [13]. - Approximately 75% of its revenue is generated outside New Zealand, with a comprehensive service offering that includes domestic distribution, warehousing, and international freight services [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Sell" for Mitsubishi Electric with a price target of ¥1,700, indicating a potential decline from the current price of ¥2,901 [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding the FA (Factory Automation) business, which has seen a significant decline in operating profit margins, dropping from nearly 20% in the past to 6.1% in FY3/25 [2][3]. - The company is undergoing restructuring, particularly in the FA business, with plans to make decisions regarding operations worth approximately ¥0.8 trillion by FY3/26 [1][3]. - Despite some positive opinions on the restructuring, the overall sentiment remains bearish due to the company's slow response to market share losses in China and the gradual implementation of cost-cutting measures [3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections show a slight decline from ¥5,521.7 billion in FY3/25 to an estimated ¥5,470.0 billion in FY3/26, with a forecasted operating profit of ¥350.0 billion [7][8]. - The report estimates that the operating profit guidance for FY3/26 includes a one-off profit of over ¥30 billion, suggesting that the underlying performance may be weaker than it appears [4]. - The forecast for EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected to decrease from ¥156.2 in FY3/25 to ¥129.1 in FY3/26, reflecting a significant drop of 17.3% [6][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x for valuation, leading to a price target of ¥1,700 [4][12]. - Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 22.5 for FY3/26 and a projected dividend yield of 1.7% [9][10]. - The company's market capitalization is reported at ¥6,021 billion, with a free float of 67% [5][8]. Market Position and Outlook - Mitsubishi Electric operates in various sectors, including cyclical and non-cyclical fields, maintaining a strong and stable position within the industry [11]. - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the company's stock, with a forecasted total stock return of -39.7% over the next year [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for WEB Travel Group Limited with a 12-month price target of A$6.20, slightly up from the previous target of A$6.15 [5][3]. Core Insights - WEB Travel Group Limited has shown resilience in a challenging macro environment, with a strong exit from FY25 and an acceleration into FY26 driven by its conversion strategy [1]. - The company reported a total transaction value (TTV) of A$4.9 billion for FY25, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase, and a revenue/TTV margin of 6.7% [2][8]. - Despite a marginal EBITDA miss at A$121 million, the underlying performance was stronger than expected, with improved revenue composition [2][8]. - The company is targeting a long-term TTV of A$10 billion by FY30E with an EBITDA margin of approximately 50% [2][3]. Financial Performance - FY25 TTV was A$4.9 billion, up 22% year-over-year, with a revenue of A$328.4 million, slightly above expectations [2][8]. - EBITDA for FY25 was A$121 million, down 13% year-over-year, but 1% above consensus estimates [2][8]. - Cash flow conversion was reported at 73%, lower than the expected 80% [2]. - Bookings for FY26 year-to-date have increased by 29%, with TTV growth of 37% [2]. Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts a TTV of A$5.97 billion for FY26, with a revenue target of A$389.2 million [9]. - EBITDA margins are expected to improve to 44-47% in FY26 and reach 50% by FY27 [2][9]. - The valuation metrics indicate WEB is trading at a forward cash-adjusted PE of 17.5x, with a projected 3-year EPS CAGR of over 15% [1][3].