Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Goodman Property Trust (GMT) with a price target of NZ$2.35, indicating a potential upside from the current price of NZ$1.92 [9][28]. Core Insights - Goodman Property Trust reported FY25 cash earnings of NZ$116 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase and exceeding UBS estimates by NZ$1 million. This growth was driven by higher net rental income and reduced operating expenses following management internalization [7][3]. - The company experienced like-for-like rental growth of 7.3%, an increase from 6.5% in FY24, and maintained a high occupancy rate of 99.0% despite a slight decline from 99.5% in FY24 [4][7]. - A new capital partnership was announced, involving a NZ$2.1 billion investment in Highbrook Business Park, with GMT holding a 72% stake, which is seen as a positive development for future growth [7]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for FY25 include: - Net rental income of NZ$231 million, up 14% compared to the previous corresponding period (pcp) [3]. - Net operating expenses decreased to NZ$11 million, down 48% from the pcp [3]. - Net interest expense increased to NZ$64 million, up 37% from the pcp [3]. - Cash earnings of NZ$116 million, up 15% from the pcp [3]. - Distribution per unit (DPU) of 6.5 cents, a 5% increase from the pcp [3]. Guidance - For FY26, the expected cash earnings per unit (EPU) is projected at 8.00 cents, slightly above UBS estimates of 7.95 cents, while the DPU is expected to be 6.80 cents, compared to UBS estimates of 6.75 cents [6]. Valuation - The valuation of Goodman Property Trust is based on a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and Net Asset Value (NAV), supporting the price target of NZ$2.35 [5]. Market Context - The market capitalization of Goodman Property Trust is NZ$2.95 billion (approximately US$1.76 billion), with a free float of 68% and an average daily trading volume of 1.166 million shares [9]. - The forecast stock return is estimated at 25.9%, combining a price appreciation of 22.4% and a dividend yield of 3.5% [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports, with a target price raised from HKD 115.7 to HKD 122.3 [1] Core Insights - UBS has increased its net profit forecasts for Anta Sports for the years 2025 to 2027 due to better-than-expected earnings contributions from AmerSports [1] - The management indicated that several factors will influence the overall profit margin of the group this year, including strong sales from Descente and Kolon, reduced inventory provisions, and better-than-expected performance from AmerSports [2] - The management also stated that the restructuring of the FILA brand is ongoing, with guidance suggesting that its growth rate will exceed economic growth, maintaining an annual operating profit margin target of 25% [2] Summary by Sections - **Store Performance**: By the end of 2024, SuperAnta and Anta Champion stores are expected to have 45 and 80 locations respectively. In the first five months of 2025, sales from Champion stores doubled, with average monthly sales reaching RMB 550,000. The operating profit margin of Champion stores is reported to be better than the group average [1] - **Sales Strategy**: The SuperAnta stores typically achieve monthly sales two to three times higher than regular stores, with 80% of products being newly developed. The business model aims to sell core products through larger store formats, reducing product costs and providing competitively priced products [1] - **New Store Impact**: Although these new store formats only account for 1% to 2% of the total number of stores, they are expected to help attract new customers [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings Inc with a 12-month price target of US$165.00, down from a previous target of US$193.00 [8][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 10% year-over-year revenue growth to Rmb96 billion in 1Q25, which missed expectations by 8%, primarily due to transaction services linked to Temu [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was Rmb16.9 billion, missing by Rmb11 billion or 39%, attributed to increased sales and marketing spending and lower investment income [2][4]. - The management's cautious tone reflects macroeconomic uncertainties and significant investments impacting profitability, leading to expectations of street downgrades [12]. Revenue and Earnings Analysis - Online market services (OMS) revenue grew by 14.5%, slightly below the consensus of 18%, due to targeted subsidies affecting ad income [3]. - Transaction service revenue missed by Rmb6 billion, primarily due to Temu's challenges in the US market, including tariff impacts and logistical disruptions [4]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 44% year-over-year, indicating a shift in customer acquisition strategies [5]. - Investment income decreased significantly, with a net miss of Rmb2 billion, likely due to mark-to-market or impairment losses [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been cut by 28-43%, reflecting increased domestic investments and widening losses for Temu [13]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, estimating total revenues of Rmb406.1 billion for 2025, down from a prior estimate of Rmb456.5 billion [15]. - Non-GAAP net income for 2025 is projected at Rmb79.7 billion, a reduction of 43% from previous estimates [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a significant drop in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, with estimates for 2025 at 13.2x, down from 11.0x previously [15]. - The equity free cash flow yield is projected to be 11.7% for 2025, indicating strong cash generation potential despite current challenges [7]. - The valuation methodology is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with core e-commerce operations valued at Rmb137.9 billion [16]. Market Context - PDD Holdings operates in a competitive e-commerce landscape, focusing on value-for-money products and expanding into international markets through Temu [18]. - The report notes that domestic operations are currently profitable, contrasting with Temu's ongoing losses, which are impacting overall profitability [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nam Long Investment Corporation and Khang Dien House is "Buy" while Vinhomes Joint Stock Company is rated "Neutral" [25]. Core Insights - The residential sector in Vietnam is expected to rebound in 2025 due to fast-tracked approvals and increased supply from developers, which will help ease pent-up demand and improve affordability [1]. - The government is streamlining administrative structures and decentralizing planning, which is anticipated to create a more stable and transparent development pipeline [1]. - Significant new housing supply is expected in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and surrounding provinces, with up to 20,000 units projected to launch in 2025 [2]. - Vinhomes is pursuing an ambitious suburban expansion strategy, planning to launch seven projects in 2025 with a pre-sales target of D150-200 trillion [3]. - Competitive pressures are rising in the market, particularly for mid-sized developers, but Nam Long is less concerned as larger developers may help raise baseline prices [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The residential sector is set for a rebound in 2025, driven by increased supply and regulatory changes [1]. - HCMC is expected to see a significant increase in housing supply, with major projects like Eco Retreat and The Global City contributing to this growth [2]. Company Strategies - Vinhomes is focusing on suburban developments, with a major project in Long An planned to deliver over 30,000 residential units [2]. - Nam Long plans to launch multiple projects in the second half of the year, including Waterpoint and Izumi [4]. Valuation and Price Targets - Nam Long's price target is based on RNAV and implies a valuation of 1.7x 2025E P/BV [12]. - Vinhomes has a price target of D65,000 based on a 7x forward PE target multiple, reflecting a 40% discount to RNAV [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tongcheng Travel with a 12-month price target of HK$24.50, implying a potential upside of 19.5% from the current price of HK$20.50 [7][29]. Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's 1Q25 earnings were in line with revenue expectations, with a margin beat. The management highlighted improving pricing trends in domestic hotel average daily rates (ADR) and airfare, expecting this momentum to continue due to resilient travel demand and a low base effect [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing monetization through improved value-added services (VAS) sales, effective cross-selling between transportation and hotel products, and optimized subsidies, which could sustain high take rates of approximately 4% for transportation and 9.5% for accommodation in 2Q [2][3]. - Core OTA revenue is expected to slow down temporarily in 2Q with a year-over-year growth estimate of 13.4%, but is projected to return to high-teens growth in the second half of the year as the base effect normalizes [2][4]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Total revenue estimates for 2Q and 2025 remain unchanged at 9.9% and 12.1% year-over-year growth, respectively. The core OTA business is expected to maintain healthy growth at 13.4% for 2Q and 16.4% for FY25E [4][11]. - The adjusted net margin is projected to remain stable at 15.9% for 2Q and 17.2% for 2025E [4]. Business Updates - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) is estimated to have experienced negative year-over-year growth in 1Q due to weakness in domestic airfare, while domestic hotel GMV is expected to show healthy double-digit room night growth [3]. - Outbound air ticketing and hotel room nights saw robust growth of 40-50% year-over-year in 1Q, with management targeting to improve this mix to high-single digits by 4Q [3]. - The company currently manages 2,500 hotels, with over 1,400 in the pipeline, and expects the addition of Wanda Hotel Management to enhance its brand portfolio and profitability [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a DCF-based price target of HK$24.50, which implies a P/E ratio of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026 [5][12]. - The company is trading at a P/E of 13.3x for 2025, which is considered undemanding with a PEG ratio of 0.8x [2][5]. Financial Highlights - Revenue projections for Tongcheng Travel show significant growth from Rmb6,585 million in 2022 to an estimated Rmb19,447 million in 2025, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb646 million in 2022 to Rmb3,364 million in 2025 [6]. - The adjusted diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb0.29 in 2022 to Rmb1.46 in 2025, with a dividend per share expected to grow from Rmb0.00 in 2022 to Rmb0.20 in 2025 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Dexus (DXS) with a 12-month price target of A$8.70, down from a previous target of A$9.02 [7][26]. Core Insights - Dexus is facing challenges including potential forced liquidation of the Dexus Bloc due to investor disputes, which could impact management fees and annual FFO [2][3]. - The company is also dealing with approximately A$3 billion in redemptions and delays in development projects, which may affect its financial outlook [3]. - Despite these headwinds, Dexus is viewed as a strong player in the office market recovery, benefiting from operational improvements and positive market sentiment [4]. Financial Summary - Forecasted net rental income is expected to decline from A$808 million in FY22 to A$686 million in FY25E, with further declines projected in FY26E [6][8]. - EBITDA is projected to decrease from A$868 million in FY22 to A$775 million in FY25E, reflecting a negative trend in profitability [6][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in FFO into FY26E, with a reduction in the FM EBIT multiple from 14x to 11x [3][5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be around 11.2x for FY25E, with a sustainable dividend yield of 5.4% [4][9]. - The net asset value (NAV) per share is estimated to be A$8.80 for FY26E, indicating a discount to book value [9]. - The forecast stock return is estimated at 29.7%, combining price appreciation and dividend yield [10]. Company Overview - Dexus is a leading real asset manager with A$44 billion in third-party funds under management (FUM) and a balance sheet portfolio of approximately A$17 billion, primarily in office and industrial real estate [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Trip.com with a price target of US$76.00, while the current price is US$65.54 [7][26]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported 1Q25 revenues of Rmb13.8 billion, reflecting a 16.2% year-over-year increase, which was largely in line with expectations. The operating expenses were 3.9% below estimates, primarily due to reduced marketing spending, leading to a non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.0 billion and a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29.2%, exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The company demonstrated strong performance across segments, with accommodation revenue rising by 23%, transportation by 8%, and corporate travel by 12% year-over-year. Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings have recovered to over 120% of pre-COVID levels, significantly outperforming the industry's international flight capacity recovery of 83.9% [3][4]. - Management remains optimistic about sustaining growth, supported by resilient demand and favorable policies, indicating confidence in the company's outlook [4][5]. Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for 1Q25 include net revenue of Rmb13.8 billion, non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.0 billion, and non-GAAP net profit of Rmb4.2 billion, which exceeded consensus estimates by 2.2% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Forecasted revenues for Trip.com are projected to grow from Rmb20.0 billion in 2022 to Rmb96.8 billion by 2029, with net earnings expected to increase from Rmb1.3 billion in 2022 to Rmb34.4 billion by 2029 [6]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBIT margin, projected at 28.2% for 2025, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 20.4% [6]. Market Position - Trip.com is positioned as a leading travel service provider in China and internationally, operating multiple brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company aims to generate 15-20% of total revenue from international businesses in the next three to five years [11].

Investment Ratings - BHP: Neutral (CBE) with a price of A$38.75 [30] - Mineral Resources: Buy (CBE) with a price of A$24.08 [30] Core Insights - BHP is focusing on executing its organic copper and potash growth pipeline, increasing capex from $7 billion in FY23 to approximately $10 billion in FY25, and expects to maintain around $11 billion in the medium term [12] - The Jansen potash project is on track to deliver significant new volume growth, followed by copper projects in the 2030s [12] - Mineral Resources has appointed Malcolm Bundey as the new chair, indicating a strategic leadership change [13] - The Chinese economy is showing slower year-on-year growth, with retail sales growth down to 5.1% and industrial production growth at 6.1% [14] Summary by Sections Economic Headlines - Wall Street stocks finished flat due to weakened sentiment from Moody's downgrade [9] - China's economic activities moderated in April, with notable declines in property sales and new starts [14] Commodity Prices - Gold increased by 1.4% to $3,232/oz driven by safe haven demand [4] - Iron ore prices fell by 0.7% to $100/dmt amid weak Chinese economic data [3] - Copper rose by 0.6% to $4.33/lb due to a weaker dollar [4] Company Developments - Codelco has selected Rio Tinto as a partner for the Maricunga lithium project [6] - Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new mill [7] - Kodal anticipates receiving a permit soon to export 27,000 tons of stockpiled lithium from Mali [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Kogan.com with a price target of A$5.20, while the current price is A$4.52 as of May 19, 2025 [3][23]. Core Insights - Kogan.com is experiencing challenges in its second half of FY25, with a reported EBITDA of A$6.8 million for the first four months of 2025, which is below the consensus estimate of A$16 million for the second half [2][3]. - The company’s Mighty Ape segment has not yet recovered, and increased marketing expenditures are driving customer growth but negatively impacting earnings [2][3]. - The report anticipates a downward revision in consensus EBITDA expectations due to the lag in sales translating to gross profit [2]. Financial Highlights - Kogan's revenue projections show a decline from A$718 million in FY22 to an estimated A$507 million in FY25, with a gradual increase expected thereafter [6]. - The estimated diluted EPS for FY25 is A$0.14, with projections of A$0.22 for FY26 and A$0.26 for FY27 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a net cash position, with net debt projected to be A$12 million by FY25 [6]. Market Position - Kogan.com is recognized as Australia's largest pure-play online retailer, operating in a high-growth online retail market valued at approximately A$18 billion [10]. - The company has diversified its offerings beyond electronics into general merchandise, travel packages, mobile/internet plans, and insurance policies [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA multiples for valuation, with an EV/EBITDA multiple projected to decrease from 47.8x in FY22 to 11.4x in FY25 [6][11]. - The forecasted stock return is estimated at 18.6%, combining a price appreciation of 15.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6% [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to BHP with an unchanged price target of A$40 per share [4][5]. Core Insights - BHP is focusing on its organic growth pipeline for potash and copper, increasing capital expenditure from $7 billion in FY23 to approximately $10 billion in FY25, and expects it to stabilize around $11 billion in the medium term [1][3]. - The Jansen potash project is progressing well, with Stage 1 currently 66% complete and on track for first production by the end of CY26, while Stage 2 is 8% complete and targets production in FY29 [2][8]. - The Jansen project is expected to drive approximately 25% Group EBITDA growth through FY30, with an anticipated free cash flow of around $1.8 billion from FY33 at a potash price of $325 per ton [3][13]. Financial Overview - BHP's revenue projections show a decline from $65.1 billion in FY22 to an estimated $49.6 billion in FY25, with net earnings expected to drop from $21.3 billion in FY22 to $9.8 billion in FY25 [4][53]. - The Jansen project is projected to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 11% with a net present value (NPV) of around $8 billion based on a 2025 look-forward basis [13][19]. - The operating costs for the Jansen project are estimated at $105-$120 per ton, with a capital intensity of $1,050 per ton for Stage 2, which is lower than Stage 1 [24][40]. Project Progress - The Jansen project is expected to add 8.5 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of potash to the market by the end of the decade, representing about 10% of global supply [2][3]. - Significant construction progress has been observed, particularly in the processing plant, with expectations for accelerated progress as seasonal conditions improve [11][7]. - BHP has maintained its capital expenditure guidance for the Jansen project despite inflationary pressures, with the first tonnes from Stage 1 targeted for late 2026 [8][39].