Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for MCY to Neutral, while maintaining a Buy rating for MEL and GNE, reflecting their higher dividend per share (DPS) growth and attractive valuations [4][31]. Core Insights - The New Zealand electricity retail market is expected to see household electricity prices grow at approximately +5% per annum over the next five years, which is above the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4][5][11]. - Retail EBITDA margins are projected to gradually improve from -20% in FY25 to +4% by FY30, despite rising wholesale electricity prices and transmission/distribution costs [4][5][20]. - The report highlights that bundling and load management strategies could significantly enhance long-term EBITDA per connection for leading retailers like MCY and CEN, potentially increasing by 60-70% by FY35 [6][21]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The New Zealand electric utilities sector has outperformed the NZX50 index by +7% year-to-date, with the retail segment comprising about 30% of total demand [7][32]. - The market is currently undervaluing the long-term potential of the electricity retail sector, with expectations of substantial retail EBITDA losses in FY25 estimated at around -$600 million to -$1.5 billion depending on hedging strategies [29][49]. Pricing Dynamics - Historical data indicates that household electricity prices have increased at an average of +3.8% per annum over the last 35 years, with expectations of a return to this growth rate after a period of higher increases [11][62]. - The report anticipates that retail electricity prices will reach historical peaks of +6%/+9%/+7% over the years 2025-2027 before moderating to CPI levels beyond 2032 [62][63]. Operator Performance - MCY and CEN are identified as the operators most likely to benefit from a rational increase in retail prices, with expected retail EBITDA margins of ~5% by FY30 [20][29]. - The report suggests that the retail arms of integrated utilities are generally valued at around 7x EV/EBITDA, with MCY standing out as having the most valuable retail segment [29][31]. Strategic Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of bundling and load management as key strategies for retailers to enhance their customer base value and improve profitability [21][104]. - Discussions with industry participants indicate that retailers have historically acted rationally in raising prices during periods of regulatory scrutiny, suggesting resilience in pricing strategies [4][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alcoa Corporation is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of A$50 based on a 5.0x NTM EV/EBITDA valuation [6][19] - BHP is also rated Neutral with a target price of A$39.19 [19] - Coronado Global Resources is rated Neutral with a target price of A$0.19 [19] Core Insights - The report highlights that the aluminum price outlook remains optimistic in the medium term, but bauxite prices are expected to stay low for an extended period [6] - The report indicates that the U.S. and China have significantly reduced reciprocal tariff rates, which may positively impact China's growth outlook [5] - The report notes that the coal market outlook is weakening, leading to a reassessment of Coronado Global Resources' operational and financial exposure [8] Summary by Sections Commodity Prices - Iron ore prices have slightly decreased by 0.6% to $102/dmt, with market focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations as a key driver of global growth [1] - Gold prices rebounded by 1.7% to $3,242 per ounce, benefiting from a weaker dollar and disappointing U.S. economic data [2] Company-Specific Insights - Alcoa Corporation's sensitivity to aluminum prices is highlighted, with recent aluminum price rebounds of approximately 25% [6] - BHP's CEO expressed satisfaction with the company's strong fundamentals and growth strategy, particularly regarding the Escondida project [7] - Coronado Global Resources is expected to face profit pressures, leading to a delay in long-term growth and capital expenditures [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Swiss Prime Site (SPS) with a price target of CHF104.00, while the current price is CHF113.90 [6][30]. Core Insights - Swiss Prime Site has undergone significant transformation over the past five years, focusing on a two-pillar strategy that has increased the earnings contribution from direct real estate from 45% to 87%, with EBITDA margins improving from 52% to 79% [4]. - The Swiss commercial real estate market shows a positive outlook, with prime yields widening to an attractive 200 basis points and low availability of office space in prime locations [3]. - The company has a robust acquisition pipeline of CHF600 million, expecting a rental income contribution of over CHF25 million, with most projects currently in due diligence [4]. Financial Metrics - The net rental income is projected to be CHF391 million for 2025, with EBITDA expected at CHF413 million [7]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is CHF3.57, with a dividend per share (DPS) of CHF3.45 [7]. - The company is trading at a 12% premium to its FY24 NAV, while the sector averages a 1% premium [11]. Growth Potential - SPS aims to grow its assets under management (AuM) from CHF13 billion to CHF16 billion by 2027, driven primarily by net contributions from pension funds [9]. - Management sees a potential for approximately 10% additional rent reversion across the portfolio, with new acquisitions expected to yield unlevered returns of 3.5-3.8% [10]. - The company anticipates around 10% growth in funds from operations (FFO) and similar dividend potential, maintaining a payout policy of 80-90% of FFO [10].

ab 16 May 2025 Global Research First Read Manawa Energy UBS SnapShot: FY25 Result VALUATION Our rating and PT for MNW are restricted. GUIDANCE No FY26 EBITDAF guidance provided. ONE LINER Tough operating environment through FY25, with no FY26 EBITDAF or DPS guidance provided, and all eyes now on acquisition by CEN. KEY NUMBERS Normalised EBITDAF (continuing operations) $91m (-42% YoY) vs cons $89m vs guidance $80m-$95m. Normalised NPAT $32m (-52% YoY) vs. cons $24m. Final DPS 0 cps vs. cons 5cps. RESULT HIG ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group with a 12-month price target of US$178.00, slightly reduced from the previous target of US$180.00 [5][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed outlook for Alibaba Group, with revenue growth of 7% year-over-year and adjusted EBITA growth of 36% year-over-year, both slightly missing expectations by 1-2% [2][4]. - The core Taobao Tmall (TTG) business is expected to maintain a positive trajectory, with a forecasted CMR growth of 8% and EBITA growth of 5% for FY26E [3][4]. - The cloud segment is projected to grow revenue by 23% in FY26E, despite a slight decrease in EBITA margin due to increased investments and seasonality effects [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenues for FY25E are estimated at Rmb996,347 million, with a slight increase to Rmb994,026 million for FY26E [4][13]. - Adjusted EBITA is forecasted to grow from Rmb163,584 million in FY25E to Rmb178,738 million in FY26E, reflecting a margin increase from 16.4% to 18.0% [4][13]. Business Segments - **Taobao Tmall (TTG)**: Revenue growth is expected to be driven by a shift towards higher-commissioned Tmall, with CMR growth of 12% in the latest quarter [3][4]. - **Cloud Services**: Management remains optimistic about growth, with a forecast of Rmb118,028 million in revenue for FY26E, despite a decrease in EBITA margin to 7% [3][4]. - **Local Services**: Expected EBITA losses may widen due to increased competition in the food delivery market [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a reasonable valuation at 12x P/E, with a projected equity free cash flow yield of 2.7% for FY26E [4][9]. - The price-to-book value is estimated at 2.2x for FY25E, indicating a solid valuation relative to the market [5][9]. Market Position - Alibaba Group is positioned as a leader in the cloud and e-commerce sectors, with significant investments in AI and quick commerce expected to drive long-term growth [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential upside from consumer-related stimulus measures, which could further enhance Alibaba's market position [4][8].

Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Buy [5] - 12-month price target: US$152.00, up from US$133.00 [5][10] Core Insights - NetEase reported a strong Q1 2025 with significant bottom line beats, driven by mobile and PC game revenue growth [2][4] - PC game revenue grew 85% YoY, primarily due to the successful launch of Marvel Rivals and strong performance from existing titles [3] - Mobile game revenue decline narrowed to 4% YoY, with expectations for further improvement [3] - Management indicated a more prudent marketing strategy, resulting in lower selling and marketing expenses [3] - Despite a strong Q1, the company may enter a quieter period until the next major title launch [4] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenues: Rmb28,829 million, a 7.4% YoY growth [11] - Net income (GAAP) for Q1 2025: Rmb10,301 million, a 35.6% increase YoY [11] - Gross margin improved to 64.1% in Q1 2025, up from 60.7% [11] - Expected revenues for FY 2025: Rmb113,876 million, with net earnings projected at Rmb40,226 million [8][11] Valuation Metrics - Current trading at 14x 2025E PE, below the 5-year mean of 15x [4] - DCF derived price target reflects a reasonable valuation compared to global gaming companies averaging 31x 2025 PE [4][10] - Forecast stock return of 27.6%, with a price appreciation of 25.1% and a dividend yield of 2.5% [13] Game Pipeline and Future Outlook - New game pipeline for 2025 includes MARVEL Mystic Mayhem and Destiny: Rising, with limited expectations [3] - Anticipated PC game growth of 46% in 2025, contingent on user engagement and updates for Marvel Rivals [3] - Management maintains a conservative outlook on sustaining current low marketing expenses in the near term [3]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating for Insurance Australia Group (IAG) from Buy to Neutral, reflecting moderate value upside from the recent acquisition of RAC Insurance [2][6]. Core Views - IAG's acquisition of RAC Insurance is strategically and financially attractive, adding approximately 8% to IAG's Gross Written Premium (GWP) and increasing its market share in Western Australia (WA) from 8% to about 55% in Home and Motor insurance, pending ACCC approval [2][4][13]. - The total upfront consideration for the acquisition is A$1,350 million, which is internally funded and implies an annualized price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.7x for 1H25, increasing to 10.8x post distribution costs [2][15]. - The deal is expected to be 6-10% accretive to earnings per share (EPS) post-synergies, with targeted synergies of A$100 million anticipated [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - IAG's FY25E EPS is revised up by 1.6%, FY26E remains flat, and FY27E is increased by 5.2%, reflecting better-than-expected catastrophe (CAT) outcomes and the incorporation of RAC Insurance from FY27E [5][28]. - The report estimates IAG's FY27E PE at 18x, which is considered fair value, with a price target raised to A$9.30 per share from A$8.30 [5][6]. Market Position - The acquisition will significantly enhance IAG's market position in WA, with RACI being the largest Home/Motor insurer in the region, holding approximately 47% market share [4][18]. - Post-acquisition, IAG's combined market share in WA is projected to reach around 55%, with 66% in Motor and 42% in Home insurance [20][21]. Profitability and Valuation - RACI's profitability metrics indicate a reported combined operating ratio (COR) of 84% and an insurance trading result (ITR) margin of 17.8% in 1H25, suggesting strong underlying performance [19][17]. - The report highlights that the targeted synergies from the acquisition are expected to outweigh the amortization charges associated with the distribution agreement [19][15].

Investment Rating - The report provides a general overview of the Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (SREITs) and Business Trusts, indicating a mixed performance with SREITs down 0.9% year-to-date and Developers up 2.8% [2]. Core Insights - SREITs are currently trading at a 6.18% estimated yield for 2025, which is 375 basis points higher than 10-year government bonds. The expected growth in Distribution Per Unit (DPU) for SREITs is projected at 0.3% per annum from 2024 to 2026, driven primarily by Healthcare (+9.3%) and Diversified sectors (+1.1%) [3]. - Investor sentiment remains positive regarding the data center thesis, particularly for Keppel DC REIT (KDC), with confidence in near-term rental growth. However, there are concerns about long-term visibility post-2027 for Singapore-based data centers [4]. - The report emphasizes a "barbell strategy" for investment, recommending a combination of KDC for growth and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) for defensive income to balance resilience and reflation [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The combined market capitalization of the 40 listed REITs and Business Trusts in Singapore is approximately US$70.6 billion [2]. Performance Metrics - Year-to-date performance shows SREITs down 0.9% while Developers have increased by 2.8% [2]. - The report highlights specific price performances of various REITs, with Dasin Retail Trust showing a significant decline of 25% year-to-date, while BHG Retail REIT has increased by 17.8% [6]. Preferred Investments - Recommended SREITs for exposure include Keppel DC REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and CapitaLand Ascendas [5]. Price Performance Analysis - The report includes detailed price performance metrics for various REITs, indicating fluctuations over different time frames, with some REITs experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Inventec with a 12-month price target of NT$45, down from a previous target of NT$50 [7]. Core Insights - Inventec reported Q125 earnings with sales of NT$157.0 billion, reflecting a 21% decrease QoQ but a 20% increase YoY. The sales mix shifted to 49% notebooks and 48% servers, with AI servers constituting 50% of server sales [2][12]. - The company anticipates a 10% QoQ increase in Q225 sales to NT$173.0 billion, driven by strong demand for Blackwell HGX servers, although a stronger NT$ may dampen growth [3]. - Growth expectations for 2025 have been trimmed from 4% YoY to 2% YoY, influenced by flat demand in the second half and tariff impacts [4][19]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the expected EPS is NT$2.57, below the street estimate of NT$2.63, with a price target reduction reflecting a valuation of 16x 2026 EPS [5][27]. - The company's revenue projections show a gradual increase, with expected revenues of NT$663.8 billion in 2025 and NT$726.0 billion in 2026 [6][20]. Market Position and Valuation - Inventec is trading at a premium valuation of 17x/15x 2025-26 P/E, higher than its peers, indicating that the market has largely priced in growth expectations [10][27]. - The company has a solid market share in general servers and AI server motherboards, but may lag behind competitors like HonHai and Quanta in ramping up production [5][10]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The report indicates that Inventec's cash flows have been affected by cyclical earnings in PCs, but a return to positive free cash flow is projected in the coming years [21]. - A cash dividend of NT$1.70 has been declared, yielding approximately 4% at current levels, reflecting a high payout rate [21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month target price of RMB 50.00, down from the previous target of RMB 58.00 [5][24]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 2.18 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, while net profit is expected to decline by 58% to RMB 190 million due to a significant drop in valine prices and lower-than-expected sales of new products [1][2]. - In Q1, the company reported a net profit of RMB 51.1 million, a decrease of 41% year-on-year but an increase of 160% quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by a 9.5% rise in the average price of valine [1][2]. - The company is focusing on new product sales and has adjusted some production lines to flexible production to respond to market conditions [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's amino acid product revenue grew by 3% to RMB 1.51 billion in 2024, but gross margin decreased by 13.32 percentage points to 30% due to a 37% drop in the average market price of valine [2]. - Vitamin product revenue fell by 5% to RMB 207 million, with a gross margin decline of 34.33 percentage points to 21% due to significant price drops in products like myo-inositol and D-calcium pantothenate [2]. - Other products, including malic acid and arbutin, saw a revenue increase of 319% to RMB 89 million, although gross margin decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 29% [2]. Product Development - The company is actively advancing projects for alternating production of amino acids and is implementing flexible production capabilities for products like succinic acid and malic acid [3]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 50 based on a DCF valuation method, reflecting a 22-51% downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4].