中 国 房 地 产 研 报 半 月 追 踪 |一 线 成 交 同 比 增 5 成 ， 沪 深 杭 开 盘 去 化 率 超 去 年 均 值 2025 年 版权所有©克而瑞集团·研究中心 1/ 5 克而瑞观点 克而瑞观点 半月追踪|一线成交同比增 5 成，沪深杭开盘去化率超去年均值 文/杨科伟 俞倩倩 数据来源：CRIC 中国房地产决策咨询系统 二、沪广深杭等一二手成交领涨全国，沪深暂无明显降温 聚焦重点城市 2025 年 1 月半月成交，可以看出新政利好型城市诸如上海、广州、深圳、杭州等 领涨全国。新房层面，上海、广州、深圳无论是从环比 2024 年 12 月日均跌幅，还是较 2024 年 1-2 月涨幅来看都显著好于其他城市，整体市场韧性较强。 2025 年 1 月已过半月有余，春节在即，当前一二手房成交成色几何？此前受新政利好影响下的 北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州等重点城市市场热度是否延续？ 一、1 月上半月一二手房成交环降 45%和 23%，一线热度保持同比分别增 57%和 45% 新房层面，2025 年 1 月上半月 37 城总成交规模达到了 387 万平方米，较 2024 年 12 月日均回 落 45 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the high-end residential market, particularly for new homes priced above 30 million yuan, which are experiencing significant demand growth [3][17]. Core Insights - The high-end residential market in 2024 is characterized by a strong performance in new homes, especially those priced above 30 million yuan, with a notable increase in transactions compared to the previous year [3][17]. - New homes are showing a trend of "the more expensive, the more they sell," contrasting with the relatively weak performance of the second-hand market [3][17]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of transactions for new homes priced over 100 million yuan, which doubled by 144% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in the same price range remained flat compared to 2023 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: High-End Residential Market Performance - In 2024, the number of transactions for new homes priced above 30 million yuan reached 4,356 units, a 65% increase year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw a 17% increase with 1,497 units sold [3][4]. - The report notes that the increase in new home sales is significantly higher than that of second-hand homes, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards new properties [3][4]. Section 2: Market Concentration and City Analysis - The concentration of high-end new home transactions in first-tier cities is increasing, with Shanghai remaining the primary market for high-end demand, accounting for 60% of new home transactions above 30 million yuan in 2024 [7][10]. - The report shows that the transaction volume for new homes in first-tier cities has risen, while the second-hand market has seen a decline in transaction volume [3][7]. Section 3: Supply Dynamics and Product Innovation - The surge in new home transactions is closely linked to an increase in supply, particularly in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where the supply of new homes priced above 30 million yuan has doubled compared to 2023 [8][9]. - The report identifies three key characteristics of successful new luxury home products: low-density communities, high efficiency in space utilization, and designs that resonate with local cultural sentiments [11][12]. Section 4: Second-Hand Market Challenges - The second-hand luxury market is facing challenges, with a decrease in new listings and a slight decline in prices, making it less attractive to high-end buyers compared to new homes [13][15]. - The report indicates that the overall sentiment among sellers in the second-hand market remains cautious, leading to lower listing activity and a lack of competitive pricing [15][16]. Section 5: Future Outlook - The report concludes that the trend of new homes outperforming second-hand homes is likely to continue, with ongoing competition among regions and products expected to intensify [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Shenzhen real estate market, highlighting it as the only city with positive growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions in 2024 [4][19]. Core Insights - Shenzhen's real estate market experienced significant growth in 2024, with new housing transaction area and value ranking in the top 10 nationwide, achieving a year-on-year increase of 34% in area and 29% in value for new homes, and 62% in area and 51% in value for second-hand homes [4][6][19]. - The market's recovery was largely attributed to the 9.26 policy changes, which included relaxed purchase restrictions and reduced down payments, leading to a surge in transaction volumes, particularly in the fourth quarter [5][19]. - The new housing market showed a strong demand for properties in the 70-90 square meter range, with a significant portion of transactions occurring in the 300-500 million yuan price range, which increased from 35% to 41% year-on-year [6][9][20]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - New housing transactions in Shenzhen were characterized by a strong demand for both affordable and luxury segments, with the 70-90 square meter and 300-500 million yuan categories making up approximately 40% of total transactions [6][8]. - The top-selling projects were concentrated in areas like Nanshan, Longhua, and Baoan, with notable sales figures exceeding 500 units for several high-end developments [15][16]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market saw a shift in purchasing power, with a notable increase in transactions for properties priced below 300 million yuan, while higher price segments experienced a decline [10][13][20]. - The primary transaction area for second-hand homes mirrored that of new homes, with a focus on the 70-90 square meter range, indicating a consistent demand for affordable housing options [10][11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a potential cooling period in the Shenzhen real estate market following the initial surge driven by policy changes, although continued policy support could sustain market activity [20].

重 点 城 市 土 拍 日 历 2025 年 1 月 版权所有©克而瑞集团·研究中心 1/ 4 克而瑞研究中心 克而瑞研究中心 2025 年 1 月，24 个重点城市计划出让含宅土地 76 宗，起拍总价 582 亿元 2 市本月计划出让底价超过 100 亿元：北京、杭州 单日超 100 亿元：北京（2 号） 2025 年 1 月重点城市宅地土拍日历 | | | | 日 | 一 | 二 | 三 | 四 | 五 | 六 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 重庆(1.3) | 2 北京(150.3) 济南(1) 苏州(1.3) 西安(12.3) | 3 合肥(0.7) | | | 5 重庆(3) | 6 济南(3.3) | 7 | 8 福州(0.04) 苏州(2.3) | 9 济南(11.5) 西安(2.5) 长沙(3) 重庆(6.2) | 10 | 11 济南(1.2) | | 12 | 13 西安(1) | 14 杭州(25.5) 合肥(6.7) 武汉(0.2) 长沙(3.3) | 15 合肥(2.8) 济南(1.3) 长沙(0.5 ...

中 国 房 地 产 研 报 数 读 |2024 年 典 型 城 市 去 库 存 " 成 绩 单 " 版权所有©克而瑞集团·研究中心 1/ 7 克而瑞观点 2024 年典型城市去库存"成绩单" 文/马千里 2024 年四季度，房地产终于在迎来了核心指标的企稳，10 月份以来全国新房月度网签面积连续 同环比保持增长，一手房成交占比持续回升，70 城房价降幅也在年末迎来了收窄。"丁祖昱评楼市" 年末发布会分析，基于库存风险等 8 个维度 45 个细分指标判断，杭州、上海、成都、西安等八个城 市各项指标表现较佳，将在 2025 年率先回稳（详见文末附表）。 但更多的城市同样在大力推行去库存、降风险，供小于求已经成为了城市新房市场的常态。相 比率先回稳的 8 城，众多"后进"城市进入回稳期或许稍晚，但去库存的脚步同样不曾放慢。 狭义库存：郑州、青岛等 8 城压降超 100 万㎡，快速推进稳市场进程 就 2024 年狭义库存规模变动情况来看，绝大多数样本城市狭义库存规模有所下降，少数明显上 升的上海、成都、西安，均为当前新房市场去化表现较佳，跻身 2025 年回稳城市之列的优秀城市。 从狭义库存的压降规模来看，郑州、青岛 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a resilient performance in the second-hand housing market, despite a slight decline in transaction volumes in specific cities [3][15]. Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in 2024 is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, with a total transaction area of 230 million square meters across 30 key cities, representing a 6% increase compared to 2023, reaching a historical high [3]. - The cities of Tianjin, Wuhan, and Suzhou experienced a slight decline in transaction volumes, with decreases of 4%, 2%, and 4% respectively, yet overall performance remains better than that of new homes [5][15]. - The purchasing power for entry-level homes (below 2 million) has decreased, while the demand for mid-to-high-end properties (above 6 million) remains stable [7][15]. Summary by Sections Transaction Volume and Structure - In 2024, the transaction volumes in Tianjin, Wuhan, and Suzhou showed a decline of less than 5%, with second-hand housing transactions maintaining a higher resilience compared to new homes [3][5]. - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has been increasing since 2021, reaching 61%, 57%, and 62% in Tianjin, Wuhan, and Suzhou respectively by 2024, marking increases of 14, 20, and 21 percentage points [5]. Price Segmentation - The purchasing power for homes priced below 2 million has declined, while the mid-to-high-end market remains robust, with significant increases in transaction proportions for homes priced below 2 million in Wuhan (82%) and Suzhou (52%) [7][15]. - The segment of homes priced between 2-3 million has seen the most significant decline in transaction volumes [7]. Area Segmentation - The proportion of transactions for homes under 70 square meters has significantly decreased, while larger homes (100-160 square meters) have seen an increase in demand, indicating a shift towards larger, more functional living spaces [8][15]. - In Tianjin and Wuhan, the proportion of transactions for homes under 70 square meters has dropped by over 2 percentage points, while the 100-120 square meter segment in Wuhan has increased by 2.54 percentage points [8][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand ratio in Tianjin and Wuhan remains stable, while Suzhou faces an oversupply issue, particularly in the 70 square meters and below, and 140 square meters and above segments, with a supply-demand ratio of 1.93 [9][13]. - The overall market is expected to continue its high-level fluctuation, with Tianjin and Wuhan showing balanced supply and demand, while Suzhou may face inventory pressure in specific segments [15].

2025 年 1 月 中 国 房 地 产 研 报 二手房市场交易放量、半数小区涨价，率先进入信心恢复期 文/马千里 2024 年 12 月，房屋成交如期迎来年末翘尾，且同比表现也在持续走强，CRIC 监测重点城市 12 月一二手房成交同比分别增长 17%和 11%，开盘去化率稳定在四成左右的年内高位。房价方面，随着 更多小区房价实现环比上涨，供求信心亦在持续回升： 二 手 房 市 场 交 易 放 量 、 半 数 小 区 涨 价 ， 率 先 进 入 信 心 恢 复 期 版权所有©克而瑞集团·研究中心 1/ 6 克而瑞观点 克而瑞观点 1.近半小区成交价环比上涨，高频交易小区数量达年内新高 为进一步探析二手房成交价格的动向，研究中心以北京、上海等 12 个典型城市的二手房小区为 样本，为避免单套异常成交影响较大，每个月样本小区的选取标准，均为近 2 个月交易量不小于 5 套。 从统计结果来看，12 月有 48.3%的小区成交价环比上升，较上月增加了 0.2 个百分点。房价上 涨小区的占比连续三个月增多。且 12 月高频成交的样本小区数量达到年内新高，在成交放量之下， 依然有接近半数的小区成交价格环比回升。 与成交 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting that the second-hand housing prices are stabilizing and showing signs of recovery [3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand-side indicators have continued to show strength, with the opening sales rate in key cities surpassing 40% for the first time this year, and both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes reaching new highs [3]. - There is a notable increase in the percentage of neighborhoods with rising transaction prices, with 48% of neighborhoods experiencing price increases in November, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [3]. - The report emphasizes that the psychological pricing levels are converging, with the average negotiation space for second-hand homes decreasing to 19%, indicating increased seller confidence [9][12]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply and demand expectations are aligned, with more neighborhoods seeing synchronized price increases. In November, 33% of neighborhoods had rising listing prices, the highest increase in the second half of the year [4][6]. - The report also mentions that cities like Nanjing and Guangzhou have seen significant price increases, with 75% and 60% of neighborhoods respectively experiencing price hikes [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the second-hand housing prices are showing clear signs of bottoming out, with a significant increase in high-frequency trading neighborhoods and a rise in both transaction and listing prices [4][13]. - The average negotiation space for typical cities has narrowed, reflecting a shift in seller confidence and market dynamics [9][12]. Market Recovery Indicators - The report concludes that various indicators, including land investment and transaction volumes, are improving, suggesting a gradual recovery in the real estate market. The stabilization of second-hand housing prices is seen as a leading indicator for broader market recovery [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry in China Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has seen a significant increase in new listings following the September 26 policy change, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing increases of 10%, 25%, and 35% respectively in October compared to September [5][6] - However, the new listing momentum has slowed down in November and December, particularly in Shenzhen, where the average daily new listings dropped by 23% compared to September [5][6] - The majority of new listings are concentrated in the 60-90 square meter range, with 38%, 36%, and 44% of new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively falling within this size category [7][10] - The age of the properties listed shows that 10-20 year old homes dominate the market, accounting for 47%, 33%, and 34% of new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively [8][10] - New listings are primarily located in the secondary core areas of these cities, with significant proportions in districts like Chaoyang in Beijing (28%), Pudong in Shanghai (24%), and Longgang in Shenzhen (25%) [9][10] Summary by Sections New Listings and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new listing volume in the second-hand housing market has increased significantly post-policy change, but has shown signs of decline in subsequent months [5][6] - The concentration of new listings in the 60-90 square meter range suggests a focus on demand from first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [7][10] Pricing and Demand - The pricing structure for new listings shows a concentration in the 3-8 million yuan per square meter range, with a significant portion of listings priced between 300-500 million yuan per unit [12][13] - The report highlights a mismatch in supply and demand, particularly in larger properties in Beijing and Shanghai, where supply exceeds demand, while smaller properties maintain a more balanced market [15][17] Market Outlook - The report concludes that the second-hand housing market in Shanghai is likely to remain active due to a lower new listing volume compared to sales, while Shenzhen may experience stable demand. In contrast, Beijing is expected to see a decline in market heat as new listings outpace sales [23]