_ 10 October 2024 | 3:37PM CST China Healthcare: Sep 2024 China hospital equipment bidding: Signs of turning point with accelerated m/m growth & y/y turns positive | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------- ...

10 October 2024 | 4:09PM EDT _ | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | US AI | Equity Views and US Equities: Growing into AI Phase 2 ...

9 October 2024 | 6:59PM BST the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, activity in the CEE-4 and South Africa is gradually improving from weak levels. In the CEE-4, Poland is leading the way, while Czechia and Hungary are trailing, partly due to the relative importance of Europe's struggling automobile sector for these economies. In South Africa, underlying growth has picked up since the election. Amid this rotation in growth, overall activity in CEEMEA has moderated. Our CEEMEA Current Activity ...

7 October 2024 | 7:43AM HKT growing attention to media-reported RMB 2-3trillion fiscal package and a large-scale, long-term fiscal easing plan proposed by senior policy advisors. Looking ahead, potential upcoming meetings and press conferences held by the State Council and key ministries (such as the Ministry of Finance) are worth monitoring. High-frequency data, such as property transaction volume, government bond issuance, and PMIs would provide early signal of policy implementation and policy impact. Chi ...

6 October 2024 | 11:31PM EDT Machinery Supply Tracker Continued signs of stabilization in Ag machinery inventories Machinery Supply Tracker Explore> September used inventory levels for Ag were in line vs. normal seasonality, including a year-over-year decline in under 100 HP used inventories. Construction Machinery trends deteriorated slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the Truck Machinery data points were mixed. n Construction Machinery: Used construction equipment inventories were flat sequenti ...

7 October 2024 | 8:13PM HKT | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------------------|------------------------------|-------| | | Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Reflecting SSSG and ...

7 October 2024 | 6:56AM EDT Americas Technology: Semiconductors Reducing Analog/MCU Estimates Ahead of 3Q24 EPS; Remain Cautious Near-Term We are reducing forward estimates for the Analog, MCU and Power semiconductor suppliers in our coverage universe including Analog Devices, Microchip, NXP, ON and Texas Instruments, as we reflect renewed weakness across the Automotive and, to a lesser extent, Industrial and Consumer end-markets. Our updated CY2025/26 earnings estimates for the above five companies now sit ...

7 October 2024 | 7:21AM HKT The 720: Asia Strategy, China Resilience - Moutai & CATL, China Macro, China Healthcare, US Strategy In Focus | Asia Strategy Asia Strategy - China changes the game. We raise China to overweight tactically and increase our MXAPJ 12m index target to 690 on higher earnings and valuations. The current rally has brought the MSCI China forward P/E to 11.3x (-0.4 s.d.). Valuation could expand to 12x on policy support. We raise our 12m MXCN/CSI300 targets to 84/4600 implying 15-18% upsi ...

7 October 2024 | 11:02AM HKT | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Market Activity and Capital Flows - The Hong Kong market is particularly active, with southbound capital inflows reaching approximately $6 billion, while India saw inflows of $1 billion, South Korea slightly over $900 million, and Japan lagging behind [1][2] - Significant capital outflows have been observed this year, with approximately $3 billion outflows from China and Hong Kong, and $1 billion from Taiwan, while Australia and India saw inflows of $2 billion and $3 billion respectively [1][2] - Trading volumes in China and Hong Kong have surged to record highs, with Hong Kong reaching HKD 600 billion and mainland China reaching CNY 3.5 trillion in a single day [2] Sector Focus and Investor Behavior - Financials, technology, and healthcare sectors are the primary recipients of capital inflows, while surveys and mutual funds are the main sellers [1] - Mutual funds in Hong Kong and mainland China have maintained a positioning level of around 5.2%, while hedge funds have reduced long positions and potentially increased short positions [1] - The total net position in the Chinese market, although declining, remains at the 39th percentile on a five-year basis [1] ADRs and US Market Dynamics - The ADR platform has been exceptionally busy over the past two weeks, indicating a surge in interest in Chinese ADRs, with capital flows divided into two phases: pre and post fiscal stimulus announcements [1][3] - US investors are awaiting the next positive catalyst to trigger the next wave of investments [1] - The market has reacted well to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike, but concerns about inflation persist [1] AI and Semiconductor Industry - The AI and semiconductor industries are hotspots of market interest, particularly following Nvidia's community replication conference [1] - The semiconductor sub-sector is trading at levels seen in June, attracting significant reinvestment, with Nvidia and broader AI themes being heavily discussed [4] Election Impact and Treasury Briefing - The upcoming US election is creating market uncertainty, with investors seeking more clarity on potential tariff plans and US-China geopolitical relations [4] - The Treasury briefing is crucial for market sentiment and capital flows, with participants eagerly anticipating clear fiscal stimulus directions and specific measures [1][6] Regional Market Dynamics - Japan has seen a net purchase of $3.2 billion over the past three weeks, with significant buying activity in both China and Japan, indicating a reallocation of funds from the US and Europe rather than intra-regional shifts [6] - India remains highly active, with no signs of capital shifting to China through swap markets, and significant IPO activities such as the $500 million fast bond issuance by Danny and the upcoming Hyundai IPO [6] ETF and Emerging Market Flows - Emerging market ETFs without China exposure are being sold, while those including China (with a 30% weighting) are being bought, indicating a rotation back into China within the broader emerging market context [5] - The CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices are trading in the mid-single digits, significantly lower than earlier in the month, reflecting reduced willingness to establish long positions at the index level [5] Short Selling and Sector-Specific Activities - Short positions in Hong Kong have increased by about 3 percentage points month-on-month, with significant shorting activity in financial stocks and a 26% increase in short positions in energy stocks [5] - The real estate sector is a focus for ECM and event-driven strategies, with increased activity due to price volatility and expectations of further issuances [5]