7 October 2024 | 6:56AM EDT Americas Technology: Semiconductors Reducing Analog/MCU Estimates Ahead of 3Q24 EPS; Remain Cautious Near-Term We are reducing forward estimates for the Analog, MCU and Power semiconductor suppliers in our coverage universe including Analog Devices, Microchip, NXP, ON and Texas Instruments, as we reflect renewed weakness across the Automotive and, to a lesser extent, Industrial and Consumer end-markets. Our updated CY2025/26 earnings estimates for the above five companies now sit ...

Market Activity and Capital Flows - The Hong Kong market is particularly active, with southbound capital inflows reaching approximately $6 billion, while India saw inflows of $1 billion, South Korea slightly over $900 million, and Japan lagging behind [1][2] - Significant capital outflows have been observed this year, with approximately $3 billion outflows from China and Hong Kong, and $1 billion from Taiwan, while Australia and India saw inflows of $2 billion and $3 billion respectively [1][2] - Trading volumes in China and Hong Kong have surged to record highs, with Hong Kong reaching HKD 600 billion and mainland China reaching CNY 3.5 trillion in a single day [2] Sector Focus and Investor Behavior - Financials, technology, and healthcare sectors are the primary recipients of capital inflows, while surveys and mutual funds are the main sellers [1] - Mutual funds in Hong Kong and mainland China have maintained a positioning level of around 5.2%, while hedge funds have reduced long positions and potentially increased short positions [1] - The total net position in the Chinese market, although declining, remains at the 39th percentile on a five-year basis [1] ADRs and US Market Dynamics - The ADR platform has been exceptionally busy over the past two weeks, indicating a surge in interest in Chinese ADRs, with capital flows divided into two phases: pre and post fiscal stimulus announcements [1][3] - US investors are awaiting the next positive catalyst to trigger the next wave of investments [1] - The market has reacted well to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate hike, but concerns about inflation persist [1] AI and Semiconductor Industry - The AI and semiconductor industries are hotspots of market interest, particularly following Nvidia's community replication conference [1] - The semiconductor sub-sector is trading at levels seen in June, attracting significant reinvestment, with Nvidia and broader AI themes being heavily discussed [4] Election Impact and Treasury Briefing - The upcoming US election is creating market uncertainty, with investors seeking more clarity on potential tariff plans and US-China geopolitical relations [4] - The Treasury briefing is crucial for market sentiment and capital flows, with participants eagerly anticipating clear fiscal stimulus directions and specific measures [1][6] Regional Market Dynamics - Japan has seen a net purchase of $3.2 billion over the past three weeks, with significant buying activity in both China and Japan, indicating a reallocation of funds from the US and Europe rather than intra-regional shifts [6] - India remains highly active, with no signs of capital shifting to China through swap markets, and significant IPO activities such as the $500 million fast bond issuance by Danny and the upcoming Hyundai IPO [6] ETF and Emerging Market Flows - Emerging market ETFs without China exposure are being sold, while those including China (with a 30% weighting) are being bought, indicating a rotation back into China within the broader emerging market context [5] - The CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices are trading in the mid-single digits, significantly lower than earlier in the month, reflecting reduced willingness to establish long positions at the index level [5] Short Selling and Sector-Specific Activities - Short positions in Hong Kong have increased by about 3 percentage points month-on-month, with significant shorting activity in financial stocks and a 26% increase in short positions in energy stocks [5] - The real estate sector is a focus for ECM and event-driven strategies, with increased activity due to price volatility and expectations of further issuances [5]

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8 October 2024 | 2:02AM EDT Executive Summary Matthew Sykes +1(212)902-3668 | matthew.c.sykes@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Evie Koslosky +1(212)357-1694 | e.v.koslosky@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Prashant Kota, M.D. +1(212)902-6412 | prashant.kota@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jake Allen +1(212)902-6653 | jake.allen@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Will Ortmayer +1(801)744-0681 | will.ortmayer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Year to date the Life Science Tools sector performed in line with the S&P 500 an ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Sempra Energy (SRE), American Electric Power (AEP), Eversource Energy (ES), NextEra Energy (NEE), and Xcel Energy (XEL) [6][39][20][18][25] - Duke Energy (DUK) is rated Neutral [22][25] - Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) and WEC Energy Group (WEC) are also rated Neutral [27][33] - Ameren (AEE), Consolidated Edison (ED), Exelon (EXC) are rated Sell [6][9][39] Core Insights - The utilities sector is experiencing a shift in valuation, with the baseline P/E multiple increased to 17x from 16x, driven by rising power demand and decreasing interest rates [7][13] - The average total return for the coverage following the update is projected at 11% [5] - The report highlights strong growth expectations for Sempra Energy and Eversource Energy, with SRE expected to outperform consensus estimates by 5% for 3Q24 [5][20] - Duke Energy is anticipated to face challenges with a projected 6% downside to consensus estimates due to mild weather and one-time items from the previous year [5][22] Summary by Company Sempra Energy (SRE) - Rated Buy with a price target of $96, reflecting a 21% total return potential [6][39] - Expected strong growth at Oncor and potential updates on the Port Arthur LNG project [5][20] American Electric Power (AEP) - Rated Buy with a price target of $113, indicating a 19% total return potential [6][39] - Anticipated to benefit from regulatory updates and capital plan discussions [4][6] Duke Energy (DUK) - Rated Neutral with a price target of $120, reflecting a modest upside [22][25] - Expected to face headwinds from mild weather and lack of one-time benefits seen in the previous year [5][22] NextEra Energy (NEE) - Rated Buy with a price target of $86, indicating a 7.1% upside [21][20] - Strong long-term growth story with significant renewable capacity additions planned [18][20] Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) - Rated Neutral with a price target of $84, reflecting a 6.6% downside [27][32] - Potential for data center contracts to drive earnings growth [27][31] WEC Energy Group (WEC) - Rated Neutral with a price target of $96, indicating a 2% upside [33][38] - Regulatory risks in Illinois and Wisconsin are a concern [33][38] Eversource Energy (ES) - Rated Buy with a price target of $80, indicating a 30% total return potential [6][39] - Expected to benefit from ongoing capital investments and regulatory updates [6][39] FirstEnergy (FE) - Rated Buy with a price target of $49, indicating a 19% total return potential [6][39] - Focus on ongoing rate cases and potential impacts from capacity auctions [40][39]

Industry Overview - The PC industry shipments remained weak in 3Q24, with IDC reporting a -2% year-over-year decline and Canalys reporting a +1% year-over-year growth, both indicating slower growth compared to previous quarters [1] - The recovery in PC shipments is slower than initially expected for 2024, but growth is anticipated to accelerate in 2025, with IDC forecasting 4% year-over-year growth for 2025 [2] - Major vendors like Dell, Apple, and HP showed weaker-than-expected shipments in 3Q24, with Dell and Apple experiencing significant year-over-year declines [1] Vendor Performance - Dell's 3Q24 shipments declined by -4% year-over-year according to both IDC and Canalys, while Apple's Mac shipments dropped by -24% (IDC) and -20% (Canalys) [1] - HP's shipments remained flat year-over-year in 3Q24, showing no growth [1] - Lenovo maintained a stable market position with a 3% year-over-year growth in shipments, according to both IDC and Canalys [9] Market Share and Growth Trends - Lenovo holds the largest market share at 25% (Canalys) and 24% (IDC), followed by HP at 20% and Dell at 15% (Canalys) and 14% (IDC) [9] - ASUS showed strong quarter-over-quarter growth at 22% (Canalys) and 29% (IDC), indicating a potential recovery in its market position [9] - The total PC market saw a 6% quarter-over-quarter growth according to Canalys and 7% according to IDC, reflecting seasonal improvements [9] Company-Specific Analysis: Dell Technologies - Dell's F2025 estimates were revised downward due to lower PC unit sales, partially offset by higher average selling prices (ASPs) [10] - The company's Client Solutions Group (CSG) revenue is forecasted at $12.46 billion for F3Q25E, reflecting a +1% year-over-year growth, in line with Dell's guidance [10] - Dell's diversified portfolio positions it to benefit from AI server demand, growth in the PC market, and strong performance in the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) segment [20] Company-Specific Analysis: HP Inc - HP's F2024/25/26 EPS estimates remain largely unchanged, but F4Q24 estimates were modestly reduced due to lower PC shipments [13] - HP's focus on higher-end PCs and initiatives in the printing segment, such as Big Tank and HP+ ink subscription services, are expected to mitigate secular headwinds [23] - The company targets returning 100% of free cash flow (FCF) to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over the next several years [23] Investment Ratings and Price Targets - Dell Technologies is rated Buy with a 12-month target price of $155, based on 15X NTM+1Y EPS, reflecting confidence in its diversified portfolio and growth prospects [16] - HP Inc is rated Neutral with a 12-month target price of $35, based on 9.0X NTM+1Y EPS, reflecting growing confidence in a 2025 PC recovery [21]

8 October 2024 | 12:03AM EDT Americas Homebuilders & Building Products 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Results to be Led by Company-Specific Efforts as Demand Remains Challenged Near-Term Pressures Persist Despite Decline in Rates: Over the course of 3Q, weak consumer sentiment and broader macro uncertainty weighed on housing activity, in spite of a 78bps decline in the 30-year mortgage rate. Despite this, the stocks in our coverage are up an average of 18% since early July, led by the builders up 29%, vs the S&P 50 ...

_ 9 October 2024 | 6:39PM BST The EM Trader China Easing Adds Breadth n China's easing has triggered a broadening in the EM equity rally. The broad EM equity index was held back until the summer amid weak China activity and an underwhelming policy response, coupled with bouts of global macro volatility. With an improving macro cycle led by Fed easing and the much-needed recent coordinated stimulus announcements from China's policymakers, EM equities have staged an impressive rally, with the MSCI EM index up ...

8 October 2024 | 11:19PM EDT _ Americas Technology: Semiconductors Reflecting Nearline HDD Strength and NAND Weakness Ahead of 3Q24 EPS; Maintain Neutral on WDC/STX We raise estimates for Seagate and lower estimates for Western Digital (WD) ahead of CY3Q24 earnings, as we reflect sustained strength in Nearline HDD demand (i.e. EBs and pricing), more than offset by weakness in NAND pricing in the case of WD. Accordingly, we increase our STX 12-month price target to $110 (up from $107 prior), while we lower o ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb13.80 for A-shares and HK$10.70 for H-shares [1][2][4] Core Views - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings reported a strong 9M24 net profit of Rmb38bn, up 73% YoY, accounting for 87% of the full-year Bloomberg consensus of Rmb43bn [1] - Q3 net profit surged 286% YoY and 110% QoQ to Rmb21.3bn, driven by higher contract rates for Europe routes due to rerouting amid the Red Sea disruption [1][3] - The company's new pricing strategy, which includes more floating adjustments on contract rates, contributed to the earnings beat [1][3] - The FY24 dividend yield of 8.8%/12.0% for A/H-shares is attractive, trading above its historical average [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 12/24E is projected at Rmb230.3bn, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb74.2bn [2] - EPS for 12/24E is forecasted at Rmb2.62, with a P/E ratio of 6.0x [2] - The company's net debt/EBITDA ratio is expected to improve to -1.5x by 12/24E [2] Industry and Market Context - The average SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for Europe and Med routes increased by 308% YoY and 86% from March-May, reflecting higher freight rates [1][3] - The Red Sea disruption has led to longer voyage times, delaying revenue recognition for Europe routes, with Q3 revenue reflecting freight rates from June to August [1][3] - Fuel costs, historically 15-20% of total opex, decreased by 2% QoQ in Q3, contributing to higher profits [3] Valuation and Risks - The 12-month price targets are based on 0.8x/1.1x FY25E target P/BV multiples, above historical averages, reflecting higher ROE expectations due to supply chain complexity [7] - Upside risks include unexpected events reducing effective capacity and potential special dividend payouts [7][8] - Downside risks include faster-than-expected new ship deliveries and weaker-than-expected global trade demand [7][8] Freight Rate Analysis - The SCFI Comprehensive index stood at 2,135 as of 27-Sep-24, with Europe and Med routes showing significant YoY increases of 279% and 242%, respectively [6] - US West Coast and East Coast freight rates also saw substantial YoY growth, at 265% and 140%, respectively [6]