10 October 2024 | 4:09PM EDT _ | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | US AI | Equity Views and US Equities: Growing into AI Phase 2 ...

8 October 2024 | 6:08PM CST revenue recognition will likely accelerate per mgmt as ocean freight congestion eases) and we forecast +28% yoy revenue into 2H24E. Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ): Sept IA orders slightly down yoy/up mom | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---- ...

Investment Ratings - Daqo ADR: Buy rated, Daqo A: Neutral rated [3] - GCL Tech: Neutral rated [5] - TZE: Sell rated [7] - Tongwei: Sell rated [9] - LONGi: Neutral rated [11] - Hangzhou First: Buy rated [13] Core Insights - The report reflects minor adjustments to solar coverage estimates, with an average fine-tuning of 2% for book values and a -1% tweak for EBITDA of Hangzhou First [1] - The investment thesis for Daqo highlights its leading position in poly production and strong balance sheet, suggesting it can navigate downturns effectively [3] - GCL Tech is positioned to increase market share significantly by 2030, but faces liquidity pressures [5] - TZE is expected to encounter significant challenges due to a shrinking addressable market and high inventory risks [7] - Tongwei's unfavorable supply/demand dynamics for poly lead to a sell rating, despite its rapid rise in the solar industry [9] - LONGi's strong balance sheet is offset by operational challenges, leading to a neutral rating [11] - Hangzhou First is expected to achieve high net income growth due to its market position and capacity expansion [13] Summary by Company Daqo - Leading poly producer with 14% global market share by end-2023, rated Buy due to undervaluation concerns [3] - Target price of US$21.6 based on 0.4X 2024E P/B [3] GCL Tech - Positioned at the lowest end of the cost curve, aiming for 40% market share by 2030, rated Neutral [5] - Target price of HK$1.2 based on 0.7X 2024E P/B [6] TZE - Largest solar wafer producer facing headwinds, rated Sell due to market contraction [7] - Target price of Rmb6.1 based on 0.7X 2024E P/B [8] Tongwei - Rapid growth but unfavorable dynamics for poly, rated Sell [9] - Target price of Rmb13.7 based on 1.1X 2024E P/B [9] LONGi - World leader in solar PV solutions but facing operational headwinds, rated Neutral [11] - Target price of Rmb16.1 based on 2.0X 2024E P/B [11] Hangzhou First - Largest solar film producer with significant market share, rated Buy due to growth potential [13] - Target price of Rmb23.1 based on 13X 2027E EV/EBITDA [13]

_ 10 October 2024 | 2:40AM HKT China Consumer Staples: Expert call takeaways: Spirits still through the cycle; Beverage improving into Sept On Oct 9, we hosted a virtual conference with a large-scale Spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province for the regional update. Key highlights included: 1) Spirits decline in National Day Holiday narrowed vs. MAF: The distributor believes that the policy stimulus will still take time to translate into enhanced sales momentum, despite observing somewhat of an ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports Products is "Buy" with a target price of HK$95.00 [17] Core Insights - The sportswear industry in China is experiencing a deceleration in consumption growth as the economy transitions, with a sustainable shift towards value-focus and an increasing global presence [1] - Holiday sales showed healthy performance with double-digit growth across brands, slightly accelerating from September [1][2] - The distributor anticipates an expansion of discounts in Q4 due to slower-than-expected sales in the previous months and inventory control [1][6] Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, sales were under pressure with growth rates averaging in the mid-single to high-single digits, but September saw a pickup to high-single to low-double digits [1] - National Day holiday sales were healthy, reflecting low-double-digit growth across brands, indicating a marginal acceleration compared to September [1][2] - The distributor's full-year 2024 sales target has been revised to 11-13%, with specific brand performance varying [5][6] Inventory Management - Nike's inventory levels have shown a sequential upward trend due to lower-than-expected new product sales, while adidas and Anta have seen improvements in inventory levels [1][7] - Li Ning maintains a healthy inventory level with effective sell-in control, while Xtep's inventory is slightly higher due to increased competition in lower-tier cities [7][8] Market Trends - There is a clear trend of brands enhancing penetration into lower-tier cities, with expectations of escalating competition in these markets next year [1][8] - The distributor notes that lower-tier city consumers are increasingly focused on high-quality and unique products, presenting share gain opportunities for leading brands [8] Future Outlook - For 2025, the distributor expects growth targets for large brands to be in the mid-single to mid-teens percentage year-over-year, while niche brands may achieve 20-30% growth on a low base [6] - The competition is anticipated to intensify across all aspects, with disciplined channel expansion remaining a priority [6]

9 October 2024 | 6:59PM BST the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, activity in the CEE-4 and South Africa is gradually improving from weak levels. In the CEE-4, Poland is leading the way, while Czechia and Hungary are trailing, partly due to the relative importance of Europe's struggling automobile sector for these economies. In South Africa, underlying growth has picked up since the election. Amid this rotation in growth, overall activity in CEEMEA has moderated. Our CEEMEA Current Activity ...

Global Investment Research China Resilience ̶CATL (300750.SZ) Key enabler and pioneer of global electrification October 10, 2024 Eric Shen Qiying Wei Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 852-2978-7954 eric.shen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 852-2978-6426 qiying.wei@gs.com | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies like Giant and Proya in the cosmetics industry [4][16]. Core Insights - The cosmetics industry in China is expected to see a GMV growth of approximately 10% year-over-year during the Double 11 Shopping Festival, with local brands outperforming global counterparts [1][5]. - The competition is stabilizing with tapering price competition and increased platform support for brands [2][9]. - Local brands are gaining more traffic compared to private labels and multinational corporations (MNCs) [10][17]. Summary by Sections GMV Growth Expectations - Overall cosmetics GMV is projected to grow around 10% year-over-year during this year's Double 11, with local brands leading the growth [1][5]. - By platform, Taobao/Tmall targets a GMV of RMB 65-70 billion with a growth of 7-8%, while Douyin aims for RMB 38-39 billion with over 40% growth [5][8]. - Top local brands like Proya, Comfy, and Winona are expected to achieve growth rates of 40-50%, HDD-100%+, and 20-30% respectively, while most MNC brands are likely to see muted growth of 5-10% [7][8]. Industry Trends and Platform Policies - The Double 11 event this year will last 26-34 days, longer than previous years, with platforms starting promotions earlier [9][11]. - Price competition remains stable compared to last year, with platforms providing stronger support to merchants, including covering return costs and offering significant subsidies [10][9]. - The return rate is expected to be higher at 22-23%, but brands will face less cost pressure due to new platform policies [4][10]. Company-Specific Insights - Proya's short-term performance is viewed positively due to its well-structured management, though long-term challenges exist in expanding into new categories [16][17]. - Giant is expected to perform well during Double 11, benefiting from a strong brand presence in the collagen market [17]. - Botanee's turnaround potential is viewed conservatively, with success hinging on the performance of its whitening product during the event [17][16].

9 October 2024 | 4:14PM EDT _ USA: FOMC Minutes Show Range of Views Over Size of September Cut | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is maintained at Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$63.50, based on a P/E multiple of 23.3x for 2025E [6][9]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical's September shipments showed a year-on-year increase of 6% for handset lenses, while camera module shipments decreased by 30% year-on-year. Vehicle lens shipments increased by 13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to improve its gross margin (GM) to 17.5% in the second half of 2024, up from 14.1% in the second half of 2023 and 17.2% in the first half of 2024, driven by product mix upgrades towards mid and high-end smartphone projects [1][4]. - The overall shipment performance for the first nine months of 2024 is largely in line with estimates, with handset lens shipments tracking 77% of the 2024 estimates, vehicle lens at 78%, and camera modules at 74% [2][4]. Shipment Performance Summary - Handset lens shipments in September were 119 million units, a decrease of 4% month-on-month but an increase of 6% year-on-year, leading to a total of 993 million units for the first nine months of 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - Camera module shipments were 37 million units in September, down 30% year-on-year, with a total of 409 million units for the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4]. - Vehicle lens shipments reached 9 million units in September, up 13% year-on-year, contributing to a total of 80 million units for the first nine months of 2024 [2][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Sunny Optical are estimated to reach RMB 37.63 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to RMB 45.36 billion in 2025 and RMB 53.74 billion in 2026 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.08 in 2024, increasing to RMB 2.56 in 2025 and RMB 3.24 in 2026 [9].