Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Hengli Hydraulic with a target price of Rmb85.0, indicating an expected share price return of 26.1% and a total return of 27.2% [6][15]. Core Insights - Hengli Hydraulic aims for over 10% year-on-year growth in both revenue and earnings in 2025, primarily driven by a 20% increase in excavator component revenue despite flat non-excavator business [1]. - The Mexico plant is set to ramp up in June 2025, expected to contribute Rmb200m-300m to revenue in 2025, which would represent approximately 50% of Hengli's US revenue [4]. - The impact of US tariffs on demand has been limited, as major US customers can source Hengli's products from non-US plants [1]. Summary by Sections Excavator Business - Revenue from excavator pumps and valves is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year in 2025, while cylinder revenue is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, driven by market share gains in China [2]. - Monthly production has been at full utilization from March to May 2025, but a decline is anticipated in June due to seasonal factors [2]. Non-Excavator Business - Revenue in the non-excavator segment is expected to remain flat in 2025, primarily due to weaker demand for Aerial Work Platforms (AWP), which accounted for about 10% of total revenue in 2024 [3]. - Non-excavator cylinders are projected to decline by a single digit year-on-year, while pump and valve revenues may still see a year-on-year increase [3]. Mexico Plant - The Mexico plant's revenue contribution is expected to double to Rmb600m-700m in 2026 and potentially reach Rmb3.0bn in the future [4]. Ball Screw and Linear Guide Business - Combined revenue from ball screws, linear guides, and electric actuators is anticipated to reach Rmb250m in 2025, with expectations to double to Rmb500m-600m in 2026, achieving gross and net profit margins of 30% and 10% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [4] Core Insights - BYD Auto Japan launched the Sealion 7 in April 2025, which has a driving range of 540km to 590km on a single charge, with prices ranging from ¥4,950,000 to ¥5,720,000 [3][6] - BYD Auto Japan aims to introduce PHEVs in 2026 and plans to establish a lineup of 7-8 models of BEVs and PHEVs by around 2027 [7][6] - The company is focusing on improving battery performance in cold climates and plans to launch a mini EV with unique specifications for Japan in late 2026 [6][8] Summary by Sections Growth Strategy - BYD Auto Japan's sales volume for 2024 was 2,223 vehicles, with a forecast of 1,120 vehicles for January to May 2025 [3] - The Sealion 7 addresses issues related to battery efficiency in cold weather through advanced heating systems [3][6] PHEV Launch - PHEVs are expected to appeal to Japanese consumers due to their electric efficiency and overall quality, with 65% of BYD's global passenger car sales being PHEVs [7][6] Mini EV Market Entry - BYD plans to enter the mini EV market in Japan with a platform unique to the region, leveraging technologies like e-Platform3.0 and LFP blade batteries [8][9] - The mini EV market is anticipated to grow with several Japanese OEMs launching their models, which may stimulate demand [8][9] Implications for Auto Parts Industry - The expansion of mini EV sales in Japan highlights the need for Japanese parts suppliers to focus on cost reduction for EV components [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Weichai Power with a price target of HK$22.00 for the H shares and Rmb24.00 for the A shares, both with a target date of December 31, 2026 [4][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power is positioned as a growth stock within the heavy-duty truck (HDT) and engine markets, anticipating double-digit year-on-year monthly sales growth due to the China IV HDT trade-in program starting in June/July 2025 [2][3]. - The company is making significant advancements in large-bore engines and AI Data Center (AIDC) engines, targeting sales of 10,000-12,000 units in 2025, with a goal of capturing a 10% market share in China and 5% globally for AIDC engines [7][8]. - Weichai is enhancing its new energy capabilities through collaboration with BYD, focusing on electric HDT solutions and leveraging technology and customer resources to drive growth [2][7]. Summary by Sections Heavy-Duty Truck Market - China's domestic HDT sales are expected to increase significantly due to the trade-in program, with management projecting full-year sales to reach approximately 1 million units, implying a 15-20% year-on-year growth for the remaining months of 2025 [3][4]. - Weichai holds a dominant market share of around 60% in the domestic LNG HDT engine market, positioning itself to benefit from the increased demand for LNG trucks [3][4]. Engine Development - Weichai aims to sell 1,000-1,200 AIDC units in 2025, significantly increasing from 400 units in 2024, with a production capacity expansion to 4,000 units planned for the long term [7][8]. - The company produced nearly 200 AIDC power engines in Q1 2025, with 55% of these engines destined for overseas markets, indicating strong international demand [7]. New Energy Initiatives - Weichai anticipates that EV penetration in China will reach around 30% in the medium term, up from 20% year-to-date, while addressing challenges related to long-distance EVs [7][8]. - The Yantai New Energy Industrial Park Phase I is set to produce electric solutions for various vehicle types, marking a significant step in Weichai's strategic transition towards new energy [7][8]. Valuation - The price target of HK$22.00 for Weichai Power's H shares and Rmb24.00 for A shares is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4% [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the solar industry, expecting significant capacity cuts and a decline in capital expenditures, leading to a weaker pricing outlook and flattened profitability curve [4]. Core Insights - The profitability for solar value chain segments is likely to fall below pre-rush installation levels in May, with cash profitability expected to deteriorate to average levels seen in Q1 2025 [2][4]. - A rapid decline in upstream pricing is observed due to weaker demand and aggressive low-pricing strategies by Tier 2-3 players, impacting the overall market dynamics [2][19]. - Proactive price stabilization efforts by leading players are crucial to monitor in June, as inventory pressures are expected to continue increasing [2][14]. Summary by Sections Pricing Trends - As of May 15, 2025, spot prices for Poly/Wafer/Cell/Module/Glass/Film/Inverter in China showed average declines of -2%/-14%/-3%/-3%/-6%/-3% MTD, and -8%/-17%/-7%/-2%/+8%/+1% compared to pre-rush installation levels [2][19][20]. - Glass prices appear more resilient compared to other segments, primarily due to lower inventory days [20]. Profitability Metrics - Spot price implied cash gross profit margins (GPM) for various segments showed significant declines, with Tier 1 cash GPM for Poly/Wafer/Cell/Module/Glass/Film averaging flat/-13pp/+1pp/-4pp/-3pp/flat MTD [10]. - Monthly average cash profitability in May is likely to deteriorate to levels seen in Q1 2025, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [2][7]. Production and Inventory Dynamics - Production volumes are expected to decline by an average of 4% month-over-month in May, with specific declines in Poly/Wafer/Cell/Module [12]. - Inventory days are likely to rebound to an average of 30 days in May from 25 days in April, indicating a higher production-to-demand ratio [13][15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates deeper solar capital expenditure declines of -55% year-over-year in 2025, with lower capacity utilization rates expected [4]. - Continued supply increases for Glass are projected, which may lead to a rapid inventory restock and a potential price cut to Rmb12/sqm in Q3 2025 [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an "Overweight" investment rating for the robotics industry, suggesting a positive outlook for future performance [17]. Core Insights - The robotics industry is experiencing significant advancements, particularly in the development of versatile robots capable of performing a wide range of tasks, which are increasingly recognized for their maturity and adaptability [6]. - Demand for robots is driven by their ability to operate in environments unsuitable for human presence, with humanoid robots expected to become integral to service robotics and gradually adopted in elder care facilities and households [6][9]. - Technological innovation is at the forefront, focusing on advancing embodied intelligence as a pathway to achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), with collaborative research efforts driving a shift from single- to multi-scenario applications [7]. Summary by Sections Panel Discussion: Embodied AI: Robots Meet the Real World - The panel highlighted the near-term potential for humanoid robots to enhance operational efficiency in factories, warehouses, and elder care facilities, addressing labor shortages and improving safety [1][2]. Panel Discussion: Pioneering the Future: Chinese Robotics Companies and the Next Wave of Automation - The discussion explored medium-term opportunities for broader integration of robots into households, assisting with daily tasks and caregiving [1][2]. Demand Case and Market Potential - The future of robotics, particularly in warehousing and humanoid applications, is poised for significant growth, with a focus on developing lightweight, flexible, and easily deployable robots [9]. - The gradual implementation of humanoid robots in semi-structured industrial environments is anticipated to accelerate, reflecting a strategic shift towards versatile and reliable robotic solutions [9]. Supply Chain and Technological Advancements - Chinese robotics companies are focusing on commercialization, leveraging a sophisticated manufacturing supply chain to create robust hardware platforms and training targeted models for specific applications [9]. US-China Trade Dynamics and Collaboration - The humanoid robotics sector is a key area of competition and collaboration between the US and China, with both countries investing heavily in the technology despite geopolitical tensions [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Horizon Robotics, reflecting a positive outlook on the smart driving sector driven by the AD/ADAS trend in China [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Black Sesame (2533.HK) is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AD/ADAS technologies in China, with management targeting double-digit revenue growth in 2025 [1][7]. - The competitive landscape indicates that car OEMs are likely to continue diversifying their chipset suppliers, which will favor companies like Black Sesame and Horizon Robotics that provide advanced automotive chipsets [2][8]. Summary by Sections 2025 Outlook - Black Sesame's A1000 SoC will be featured in Dongfeng's new model, the eπ 007, which boasts 58 TOPS computing power and over 20 smart driving assistance functions, including highway NOA navigation and long-range autonomous parking assistance [4]. Competition Dynamics - Management believes that developing chipsets in-house is challenging for car OEMs due to the time and cost involved, which positions Black Sesame favorably in the market [8]. - The company collaborates with third-party software suppliers to enhance its algorithm development, providing flexibility for customers in choosing software solutions [8]. Company Profile - Black Sesame specializes in AD/ADAS SoCs, offering a range of products such as the A1000 series and Wudang series, which are already adopted by major OEMs like Geely and Dongfeng [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Starpower, indicating a cautious outlook on its near-term operations due to pricing pressure and competition [2][16]. Core Insights - The demand for power semiconductors is recovering, with NCE Power's management expressing optimism about sales growth in 2025, driven by improving inventory and foundry utilization rates [4][7]. - NCE Power is expanding into higher-end applications, particularly in the automotive sector, focusing on 800V and 48V EV platforms, as well as emerging markets like drones, eVTOL, and AI computing [8] Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - NCE Power sees a positive demand recovery outlook for power semiconductors this year, with increasing demand from most end markets [1][4]. - Management reports that inventory levels are improving and foundries are nearing full capacity utilization [4][7]. Competitive Landscape - Despite the recovery in demand, NCE Power faces significant competition from both domestic and international peers, along with tariff uncertainties that could impact future demand [1][7]. Strategic Expansion - To mitigate competitive risks, NCE Power is focusing on expanding into broader and higher-end applications, particularly in automotive electronics and AI computing [1][8]. - The company aims to accelerate product adoption in the automotive sector and explore growth potential in industrial control applications [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AMEC, with a 12-month price target of Rmb275, indicating an upside potential of 58.8% from the current price of Rmb173.13 [12]. Core Insights - AMEC is positioned as a key supplier in the semiconductor equipment industry, focusing on etching and metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment. The company is expanding its product lineup to include advanced etchers and deposition tools, which are expected to drive growth [9][10]. - The management is optimistic about the growth in China's semiconductor equipment demand and plans to continue investing in R&D and capacity expansions to leverage market opportunities [1][9]. Summary by Sections R&D and Product Expansion - AMEC is committed to continuous R&D spending, focusing on product expansions in etching, deposition, EPI, and advanced packaging tools. The CCP etcher's aspect ratio has improved from 60:1 to 90:1, and the company has over 40 deposition tools in the R&D pipeline [2][8]. Employee Efficiency - The total number of employees has increased by an average of 22% year-over-year since 2016, reaching 2,480 by 2024. The average sales per employee have exceeded Rmb4 million, up from Rmb3.5 million in 2022, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][4]. Capacity Expansion - AMEC's factory size was 348,000 square meters in 2024, expected to grow to 453,000 square meters in 2025 with the new headquarters. By 2028, the company anticipates reaching over 750,000 square meters of total factory space, significantly expanding its production capabilities [4][8]. Market Position and Valuation - AMEC is trading below its historical average 12-month forward P/E ratio, suggesting an attractive valuation. The company is expected to benefit from ongoing capacity expansions and the growing adoption of domestic semiconductor equipment [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Transwarp (688031.SS) as it is categorized as Not Covered [3]. Core Insights - Transwarp is expanding from big data software to AI infrastructure, focusing on enterprise clients with its foundation model solutions [1][3]. - The company has developed an in-house AI model named "Transwarp Infinity Intelligence," which boasts high accuracy and precise question-answering capabilities [4][7]. - There is a growing trend among enterprises to allocate more spending towards AI models and applications that promise accurate results and higher ROI [2]. Company Profile - In 2024, 55% of Transwarp's total revenues came from basic data software, followed by technology services at 22% and data applications at 20% [3]. - The revenue breakdown by client sector in 2024 shows that 40% came from finance enterprises, 29% from government, 9% from telecom, 7% from energy, and 3% from manufacturing [3]. Key Takeaways - Transwarp launched the integrated DeepSeek foundation model solution (TxData-LM) in 1Q25, which integrates a 671 billion parameter AI model for various applications [8]. - The company aims to assist clients in model training, knowledge base integration, and AI application development across multiple industries, including finance, manufacturing, energy, and government [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc is Overweight, with a price target of $410.00, while the current share price is $341.04 [8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of rare earths, particularly in the production of permanent magnets essential for various applications, including electric vehicles and humanoid robots [2][3]. - China currently dominates the rare earth supply chain, controlling approximately 65% of mining and 88% of refining, which poses significant national security risks for the US [5][36]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to surge due to the anticipated growth in humanoid robots, potentially increasing the demand for critical minerals by up to $800 billion by 2050 [14][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average humanoid robot is estimated to require around 0.9 kg of rare earth metals, with humanoids projected to significantly increase the demand for neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) [14][25]. - The report indicates that the introduction of humanoids could lead to a doubling of current magnet demand forecasts by 2050, with humanoids potentially accounting for up to 62% of total magnet demand [23][24]. - The average lead time for new mines to become operational has increased to approximately 17.8 years, complicating the supply situation for critical minerals [12]. National Security and Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights that the US remains heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, with no immediate alternatives available, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities [6][12]. - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to China implementing export controls on rare earths, further complicating the supply landscape for Western countries [39][40]. - The report suggests that if Western governments push for non-Chinese magnets in critical applications, significant shortages of these materials could occur [42]. Future Projections - By 2050, the demand for NdPr could see significant deficits, with projections indicating that the market may shift from surplus to deficits shortly after 2035 due to humanoid demand [31][34]. - The report anticipates that additional supply will be necessary, with potential sources including hard rock mining and by-product processing, particularly in countries like Brazil, India, and Australia [46][47].