Quality growth strategy underpins strong earnings growth

Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-15 03:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of HK$480.00, up from a previous target of HK$445.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HK$381.80 [1]. Core Insights - The company's quality growth strategy is expected to drive strong earnings growth, with non-IFRS net income projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY24-26E. The report raises FY24-26E earnings forecasts by 6-8% [1]. - Total revenue for 1Q24 increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5 billion, with a gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.1 percentage points YoY to 52.6% [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic games gross receipts and strong growth in advertising revenue, particularly from Weixin ad properties [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 609.0 billion in FY23A to RMB 661.9 billion in FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected to rise from RMB 157.7 billion in FY23A to RMB 199.5 billion in FY24E [2][26]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 16.66 in FY23A to RMB 20.60 in FY24E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][26]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 51.1% in FY23A to 53.0% in FY24E, indicating enhanced profitability [2][26]. Segment Performance - Online games revenue is projected to recover, with a slight decline of 2% YoY in 1Q24, but expected to rebound in subsequent quarters [1][3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 26% YoY to RMB 26.5 billion in 1Q24, driven by high-margin Weixin ad properties [1][3]. - Business services revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 52.3 billion in 1Q24, supported by strong growth in cloud revenue [1][3]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of HK$480.0 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with HK$182.0 attributed to the online games business, HK$85.6 to the advertising business, and HK$20.7 to the cloud business [4][5][6]. - The valuation reflects a premium for the company's strong market position and growth potential in various segments [4][5][6].
Fundamentals to bottom out
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-15 01:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company Huya, with a target price of US$6.8, indicating a potential upside of 44.5% from the current price of US$4.73 [4][10]. Core Insights - Huya's 1Q24 results exceeded expectations, with revenue declining 23% YoY but showing a 1% increase compared to consensus estimates. The adjusted net profit reached RMB92 million, which is 84% above consensus, driven by improved gross profit margins and operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 5% QoQ in 2Q24, with the livestreaming segment anticipated to stabilize and other revenue sources projected to grow by 25% QoQ. The profitability outlook has been revised upwards for FY24, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB254 million, up from RMB132 million previously [2][3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **1Q24 Financials**: Revenue was RMB1,504 million, down 23% YoY, with a gross profit margin of 14.7%. The adjusted net profit was RMB92 million, reflecting a significant improvement in operational efficiency [2][3][13]. - **Future Projections**: For FY24, revenue is projected at RMB6,727 million, with a gross profit of RMB1,058 million and an adjusted net profit of RMB254 million. The company anticipates continued growth in subsequent years, with revenue expected to reach RMB7,834 million by FY26 [13][16]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report highlights a P/E ratio of 50.9 for FY24, decreasing to 28.2 by FY26, indicating an improving valuation as profitability increases [16]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for 1Q24 shows that livestreaming revenue was RMB1,260 million, down 32.2% YoY, while other revenues surged by 172.7% YoY to RMB244 million, driven by game-related services and advertising [8][9]. - The company expects the livestreaming segment to stabilize in 2Q24, with a forecasted growth of 1% QoQ, while game-related services are projected to grow by 25% QoQ [2][3]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted net profit margin for FY24 is expected to improve to 3.8%, with further increases projected in FY25 and FY26 [10][16]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to rise from 15.7% in FY24 to 19.5% by FY26, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and better monetization strategies [10][16].
1Q2024 Results Were in Line with Expectations; 3+3 Strategy to Bring Continuous Increment, “Buy”
国泰君安证券· 2024-05-14 03:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for FIT Hon Teng is maintained as "Buy" with a target price (TP) set at HK$2.42, corresponding to a 12.5x 2024 price-to-earnings ratio (PER) [2][3][7]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q2024 results were in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 12.0% year-over-year (yoy) to US$965 million, with a gross profit margin improvement of 4.5 percentage points yoy to 20.3% [2][8]. - The company anticipates a ramp-up in its True Wireless Stereo (TWS) business for major customers in North America in the second half of 2024, with significant growth expected in 2025 [2][10]. - The management projects a double-digit revenue growth for the full year 2024, with gross margins stabilizing around 20% and a significant increase in operating profit [10][11]. Financial Performance - In 1Q2024, the gross profit increased by 44% yoy, and shareholders' net profit reached US$10 million, compared to a net loss of US$9 million in 1Q2023 [2][8]. - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are US$0.025, US$0.034, and US$0.042, respectively [2][7]. - The revenue mix from Electric Vehicle (EV) Mobility, new Generation 5G AIoT, and Audio is expected to reach 30% in 2024 and 40% in 2025 [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "3+3" strategy focusing on the development of EVs, 5G AIoT, and acoustics, which is expected to drive growth [11]. - FIT Hon Teng plans to expand its production capacity significantly, including the addition of six more production lines in India by 2025 [2][10]. - The management is optimistic about capturing opportunities in the US$1.7 billion server connector and cable market, with plans to mass-produce AI-related products in the second half of 2024 [9][10].
1Q24 beat on strong music business growth and GPM expansion
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-14 02:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company, with a target price raised to US$16.00 from US$12.50 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3% year-over-year decline in total revenue to RMB6.77 billion for 1Q24, but this was 3% above consensus estimates, driven by strong online music revenue growth [2]. - Non-IFRS net income increased by 21% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 7%, primarily due to gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.9 percentage points year-over-year and effective operating expense control [2]. - The company announced its first annual cash dividend of US$0.137 per ADS, representing approximately a 1.0% dividend yield [2]. Revenue and Profitability - Online music revenue surged by 43% year-over-year to RMB5.01 billion in 1Q24, accounting for 74% of total revenue, with music subscription revenue growing by 39% year-over-year [2][11]. - The GPM improved to 40.9% in 1Q24, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, supported by strong growth in music subscription and advertising businesses [2][11]. - The report forecasts a 2% year-over-year decline in total revenue for 2Q24, while non-IFRS net income is expected to grow by 20% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB28.83 billion in FY24, with a gross margin of 42.4% and adjusted net profit of RMB7.44 billion [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow to RMB10.39 billion by FY26, with a gross margin increasing to 44.7% [3][9]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the adjusted net profit margin, expected to reach 29.7% by FY26 [9][10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has enhanced shareholder returns through the announcement of an annual dividend and share repurchases, with 6.9 million ADS repurchased for US$61 million in 1Q24 [2][12]. - The total amount for the announced dividend is US$210 million, which is about 1.0% of the market capitalization [2]. Market Performance - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$20.56 billion, with a 52-week high of US$13.57 and a low of US$6.02 [6]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 12.6% and a 6-month increase of 81.0% [6].
Expect an unexciting set of results in 1Q24E, potential recovery in 2H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-14 02:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for SANY International with an unchanged target price of HK$8, indicating a potential upside of 24.8% from the current price of HK$6.41 [2][5]. Core Views - SANY International is expected to report a net profit decrease of approximately 15% year-on-year for 1Q24E, primarily due to reduced capital expenditure from miners, increased competition in certain product segments, and losses in the solar power segment. However, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in the solar business and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 26,717 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [4][19]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2,131.3 million, with a growth rate of 10.5% compared to FY23A [4][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 0.67, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.8x [4][19]. Segment Performance - Mining equipment revenue is expected to decline by approximately 15% year-on-year due to decreased sales of coal mining equipment and a slowdown in wide-body truck sales, despite some growth in large-size mining trucks [3][4]. - Logistics equipment revenue is projected to grow by around 25% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for small-size port machinery and a solid backlog of large-size machinery [3][4]. - The solar power segment is anticipated to remain loss-making in 1Q24E, but the completion of certain projects may help mitigate losses in the future [3][4]. Market Context - The report highlights that the coal mining sector in China is experiencing a downturn, which is impacting SANY International's performance. However, the company is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand for its products, particularly in the mining and logistics sectors [2][3].
Embracing continued outperformance
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for GigaCloud (GCT US) with a target price of US$46, representing a 23.2% upside from the current price of US$37.35 [5][12]. Core Insights - GigaCloud delivered strong 1Q24 results with revenue growth of 96% YoY, reaching US$251 million, and net profit of US$27 million, up 71% YoY. The net profit margin slightly declined due to expenses from new fulfillment centers and foreign exchange fluctuations [2][4]. - The company expects 2Q24 revenue to be between US$265 million and US$280 million, indicating a growth of 73% to 83% YoY, driven by increased demand for outdoor furniture and an expanding fulfillment network [2][4]. - GigaCloud's global fulfillment network has expanded to 42 locations with over 10.5 million square feet, a 169% increase compared to March 31, 2023, which supports robust growth in both first-party and third-party business [2][4]. - The launch of the BaaS (Business as a Service) program is anticipated to unlock total addressable market (TAM) opportunities and enhance engagement between buyers and sellers, with a competitive fee structure [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$704 million in FY23 to US$1,112 million in FY24, with further increases to US$1,353 million in FY25 and US$1,632 million in FY26 [17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$94 million in FY23 to US$116 million in FY24, reaching US$150 million in FY25 and US$188 million in FY26 [17]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 27% for FY24E to FY26E, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24E to 11.5% in FY26E [12][17]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the equity value at US$1,896 million, leading to a target price of US$46 based on a 16x FY24E P/E multiple [13][14]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests a target price of US$46, with a terminal value of US$2,356 million, assuming a WACC of 15.7% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [14][15].
Huge boost in short run growth with high yield
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a new target price of HK$7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HK$5.43 [4][7]. Core Views - The strategic disposal of K&P is expected to enhance short-term growth and improve cash flow, leading to a revision of FY24E-26E net profit estimates upwards by 2% to 5% [2][7]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10x FY24E P/E, compared to an 8-year average of 15x, alongside a 14% dividend yield for FY24E [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 15,371 million, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for FY26E [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,464.3 million in FY24E to RMB 2,557.2 million by FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 912.3 million in FY24E to RMB 1,775.7 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E net profit to RMB 1,275 million, FY25E to RMB 1,479 million, and FY26E to RMB 1,763 million, with respective growth rates of 3.6%, 2.2%, and 4.6% [8][9]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.3% for FY24E, while EBIT margin is projected to improve to 14.1% by FY25E [8]. Market Performance - Xtep's stock has shown a 39.9% increase over the past three months, outperforming the market [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$14,307.2 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Ding Shui Po and family at 49% [5].
1Q24 in line; Positive on AI server/networking and AirPods ramp-up in 2H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 03:32
Investment Rating - FIT Hon Teng maintains a BUY rating with a new target price of HK$2 40 based on 11x FY24E P/E [2][13] Core View - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q24 results were in line with expectations driven by recovery in PC/server markets solid Voltaira business and strong Networking segment [2] - The company is expected to benefit from AirPods ramp-up integration of Voltaira auto electronics business and AI server/networking products in 2H24E [2] - Revenue and net profit are forecasted to rebound 12% and 52% YoY respectively in FY24E [2] - The stock's recent correction is attributed to profit-taking after a 101% rally in the past three months [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue reached US$965mn a 12% YoY increase while net profit was US$10 2mn compared to a loss of US$9 3mn in 1Q23 [2] - Gross profit margin improved by 450bps YoY to 20 3% due to a better product mix [2] - EV segment revenue surged 205% YoY driven by the Voltaira merger while Computing and Networking segments grew 6% and 9% YoY respectively [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at US$4 715mn with a 12 4% YoY growth and net profit is expected to reach US$199 6mn a 51 4% YoY increase [3][9] Segment Analysis - EV Mobility segment revenue jumped 205% YoY in 1Q24 due to the Voltaira merger [7] - Networking segment grew 9% YoY driven by AI demand and new CPU-related products [2] - Computing segment increased 6% YoY supported by market recovery [2] AI Server Opportunity - FIT Hon Teng expects US$500-1 000 content value per compute tray for AI servers in FY24E [2] - AI revenue share is projected to be 7-9% in FY24E up from 1% in FY23 [2] Valuation - The stock is trading at 8 9x/6 7x FY24/25E P/E which is considered attractive given multiple growth drivers [2][13] - The new target price of HK$2 40 is based on 11x FY24E P/E reflecting accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13] Growth Drivers - Key catalysts include AirPods shipments AI server product updates and continued revenue upside from auto business consolidation [13] - The company's "3+3 Strategy" is expected to drive accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13]
Consistently exceeding expectations


Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-10 03:32
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, reflecting strong growth potential and robust pipeline [2][4][16] Core Insights - BeiGene's product sales in 1Q24 reached US$747 million, showing an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase, representing 25.7% of the previous FY24 estimate [2] - Zanubrutinib (zanu) sales were particularly strong, increasing 18% QoQ and 131% YoY to US$489 million, driven by market share gains in CLL in the US and expanded reimbursement in the EU [2] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, with expectations to break even by FY26E, supported by improving operating margins and narrowing net losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales Performance - Total product sales for BeiGene in 1Q24 were US$747 million, up 18% QoQ and 82% YoY [2] - Zanubrutinib captured approximately 21% of the global BTK inhibitor market in 1Q24, up from 18% in 4Q23 [2] Patent Dispute - A patent dispute with Pharmacyclics is nearing resolution, with the USPTO expected to issue a final decision on the validity of the contested patent within 12 months [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 83.3% in 1Q24 from 82.7% in FY23, driven by high-margin product sales [2] - Net loss narrowed to US$251 million in 1Q24 from US$368 million in 4Q23, better than expectations [2][3] Future Growth Potential - Upcoming clinical trials for sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 are expected to yield significant data, with potential blockbuster status anticipated [2] - Forecast for zanubrutinib sales in FY24 is US$2.2 billion, representing a 69% YoY increase [2] Target Price Adjustment - The DCF-based target price for BeiGene has been raised from US$268.20 to US$269.73, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of US$168.64 [4][12]
1Q24E preview: Expect strong earnings ahead; Raise TP to HK$23.77

Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-09 03:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a new target price (TP) of HK$23.77, reflecting a 24.5% upside from the current price of HK$19.10 [3][20]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is expected to report strong earnings for 1Q24, with estimated revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 26% and 67% year-over-year, respectively, driven by robust smartphone shipments and improved gross profit margins across all segments [1][15]. - The company is anticipated to continue gaining global smartphone market share, particularly in Latin America, EMEA, SEA, and EU markets, supported by multiple product launches in the second half of 2024 [1][18]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Xiaomi's smart electric vehicle (EV) business and resilient performance in core segments, leading to an upward revision of FY24-26E earnings per share (EPS) by 11-21% [1][15]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 335.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 23.9%. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 20.03 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase in adjusted EPS to RMB 0.80 [2][16]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 20.5% for FY24E, with operating and adjusted net margins of 6.4% and 6.0%, respectively [2][17]. Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments are estimated to increase by 14% year-over-year to 167 million units in FY24E, with a market share of 14% in 1Q24, up from 11% in 1Q23 [1][10]. - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to remain flat in 1Q24, with a gross profit margin projected to decline to 14.5% due to rising component costs [1][13]. AIoT and Internet Services - Revenue from AIoT and Internet services is expected to grow by 19% and 7% year-over-year in 1Q24, respectively, driven by strong sales in pads and home appliances [1][15]. - The gross profit margin for AIoT is projected to improve to 18.5%, while the Internet services margin is expected to remain stable at 75.0% [1][15]. Valuation - The new SOTP-based target price of HK$23.77 is derived from applying a 15x P/E multiple to the smartphone, AIoT, and Internet businesses, and a 0.75x P/S multiple for the EV business [18][19]. - The report emphasizes upcoming catalysts, including the ramp-up of EV product shipments and further smartphone market share gains [18][19].