Embracing continued outperformance
招银国际· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for GigaCloud (GCT US) with a target price of US$46, representing a 23.2% upside from the current price of US$37.35 [5][12]. Core Insights - GigaCloud delivered strong 1Q24 results with revenue growth of 96% YoY, reaching US$251 million, and net profit of US$27 million, up 71% YoY. The net profit margin slightly declined due to expenses from new fulfillment centers and foreign exchange fluctuations [2][4]. - The company expects 2Q24 revenue to be between US$265 million and US$280 million, indicating a growth of 73% to 83% YoY, driven by increased demand for outdoor furniture and an expanding fulfillment network [2][4]. - GigaCloud's global fulfillment network has expanded to 42 locations with over 10.5 million square feet, a 169% increase compared to March 31, 2023, which supports robust growth in both first-party and third-party business [2][4]. - The launch of the BaaS (Business as a Service) program is anticipated to unlock total addressable market (TAM) opportunities and enhance engagement between buyers and sellers, with a competitive fee structure [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$704 million in FY23 to US$1,112 million in FY24, with further increases to US$1,353 million in FY25 and US$1,632 million in FY26 [17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$94 million in FY23 to US$116 million in FY24, reaching US$150 million in FY25 and US$188 million in FY26 [17]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 27% for FY24E to FY26E, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24E to 11.5% in FY26E [12][17]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the equity value at US$1,896 million, leading to a target price of US$46 based on a 16x FY24E P/E multiple [13][14]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests a target price of US$46, with a terminal value of US$2,356 million, assuming a WACC of 15.7% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [14][15].
Huge boost in short run growth with high yield
招银国际· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a new target price of HK$7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HK$5.43 [4][7]. Core Views - The strategic disposal of K&P is expected to enhance short-term growth and improve cash flow, leading to a revision of FY24E-26E net profit estimates upwards by 2% to 5% [2][7]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10x FY24E P/E, compared to an 8-year average of 15x, alongside a 14% dividend yield for FY24E [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 15,371 million, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for FY26E [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,464.3 million in FY24E to RMB 2,557.2 million by FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 912.3 million in FY24E to RMB 1,775.7 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E net profit to RMB 1,275 million, FY25E to RMB 1,479 million, and FY26E to RMB 1,763 million, with respective growth rates of 3.6%, 2.2%, and 4.6% [8][9]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.3% for FY24E, while EBIT margin is projected to improve to 14.1% by FY25E [8]. Market Performance - Xtep's stock has shown a 39.9% increase over the past three months, outperforming the market [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$14,307.2 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Ding Shui Po and family at 49% [5].
1Q24 in line; Positive on AI server/networking and AirPods ramp-up in 2H24E
招银国际· 2024-05-13 03:32
Investment Rating - FIT Hon Teng maintains a BUY rating with a new target price of HK$2 40 based on 11x FY24E P/E [2][13] Core View - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q24 results were in line with expectations driven by recovery in PC/server markets solid Voltaira business and strong Networking segment [2] - The company is expected to benefit from AirPods ramp-up integration of Voltaira auto electronics business and AI server/networking products in 2H24E [2] - Revenue and net profit are forecasted to rebound 12% and 52% YoY respectively in FY24E [2] - The stock's recent correction is attributed to profit-taking after a 101% rally in the past three months [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue reached US$965mn a 12% YoY increase while net profit was US$10 2mn compared to a loss of US$9 3mn in 1Q23 [2] - Gross profit margin improved by 450bps YoY to 20 3% due to a better product mix [2] - EV segment revenue surged 205% YoY driven by the Voltaira merger while Computing and Networking segments grew 6% and 9% YoY respectively [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at US$4 715mn with a 12 4% YoY growth and net profit is expected to reach US$199 6mn a 51 4% YoY increase [3][9] Segment Analysis - EV Mobility segment revenue jumped 205% YoY in 1Q24 due to the Voltaira merger [7] - Networking segment grew 9% YoY driven by AI demand and new CPU-related products [2] - Computing segment increased 6% YoY supported by market recovery [2] AI Server Opportunity - FIT Hon Teng expects US$500-1 000 content value per compute tray for AI servers in FY24E [2] - AI revenue share is projected to be 7-9% in FY24E up from 1% in FY23 [2] Valuation - The stock is trading at 8 9x/6 7x FY24/25E P/E which is considered attractive given multiple growth drivers [2][13] - The new target price of HK$2 40 is based on 11x FY24E P/E reflecting accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13] Growth Drivers - Key catalysts include AirPods shipments AI server product updates and continued revenue upside from auto business consolidation [13] - The company's "3+3 Strategy" is expected to drive accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13]
Consistently exceeding expectations
招银国际· 2024-05-10 03:32
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, reflecting strong growth potential and robust pipeline [2][4][16] Core Insights - BeiGene's product sales in 1Q24 reached US$747 million, showing an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase, representing 25.7% of the previous FY24 estimate [2] - Zanubrutinib (zanu) sales were particularly strong, increasing 18% QoQ and 131% YoY to US$489 million, driven by market share gains in CLL in the US and expanded reimbursement in the EU [2] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, with expectations to break even by FY26E, supported by improving operating margins and narrowing net losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales Performance - Total product sales for BeiGene in 1Q24 were US$747 million, up 18% QoQ and 82% YoY [2] - Zanubrutinib captured approximately 21% of the global BTK inhibitor market in 1Q24, up from 18% in 4Q23 [2] Patent Dispute - A patent dispute with Pharmacyclics is nearing resolution, with the USPTO expected to issue a final decision on the validity of the contested patent within 12 months [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 83.3% in 1Q24 from 82.7% in FY23, driven by high-margin product sales [2] - Net loss narrowed to US$251 million in 1Q24 from US$368 million in 4Q23, better than expectations [2][3] Future Growth Potential - Upcoming clinical trials for sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 are expected to yield significant data, with potential blockbuster status anticipated [2] - Forecast for zanubrutinib sales in FY24 is US$2.2 billion, representing a 69% YoY increase [2] Target Price Adjustment - The DCF-based target price for BeiGene has been raised from US$268.20 to US$269.73, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of US$168.64 [4][12]
1Q24E preview: Expect strong earnings ahead; Raise TP to HK$23.77
招银国际· 2024-05-09 03:02
M N 9 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) 1Q24E preview: Expect strong earnings ahead; Raise TP to HK$23.77 Target Price HK$23.77 Xiaomi will report 1Q24 results in late May. We estimate 1Q revenue/adj. net profit (Previous TP HK$22.19) to deliver 26%/67% YoY growth to RMB75.2bn/5.4bn, 5%/19% above consensus, Up/Downside 24.5% backed by strong smartphone shipments, better GPM across all segments and Current Price HK$19.10 prudent expense controls. Lo ...
Undemanding yield play in textiles universe
信达国际控股· 2024-05-09 02:32
Investment Rating - Trading Sell [2][14][30] Core Insights - The company experienced a sales drop of 12% YoY in 1HFY24, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) by 12.9% in HKD terms, although sales volume remained resilient at approximately 19 million pieces, reflecting a 1.7% YoY increase [1][10] - Management anticipates a better performance in 2HFY24, driven by fast orders from Japanese clients, with an expected sales volume growth in FY24E at mid-single digits YoY, a revision from previous guidance of a mid-single digit drop [1][12] - The net gearing ratio improved significantly, declining to approximately 3.0% in 1HFY24 from 13.0% in FY23, allowing the company to raise its payout ratio to 75% in 1HFY24 [11][12] Financial Performance - The company's core net profit for FY24E is projected to reach HK$350 million, supported by volume growth and gross profit margin (GPM) expansion due to lower production costs [4] - The company is currently trading at a FY24E PE valuation of 4.7x, which is about a 54% discount compared to its HK-listed textile peers [4] - The target price for the company is set at HK$0.87, indicating a potential upside of 21.1% from the current price of HK$0.72 [14] Operational Developments - The company is expanding its production capacity in Vietnam to reduce lead times and meet client demand, with expectations that Vietnam will account for approximately two-thirds of its total knitwear capacity [12][13] - The largest customer, Uniqlo, accounted for about 48% of the company's revenue in 1HFY24, and as apparel retailers begin to restock, sales are expected to increase significantly in 2HFY24 [12][13] Market Position - Nameson is recognized as one of the leading knitwear manufacturers in China, providing a comprehensive range of services from raw material development to timely delivery [2][10] - The company has diversified its clientele, supplying to internationally renowned brands such as UNIQLO, Tommy Hilfiger, Under Armour, and Lululemon [2][10]
Looking beyond 3Q OI volatility
招银国际· 2024-05-09 01:02
M N 8 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Walt Disney Co (DIS US) Looking beyond 3Q OI volatility Target Price US$142.00 Disney delivered solid 2QFY24 results, with inline revenue (+1.2% YoY) (Previous TP US$142.00) and upbeat profit (+30% YoY, beating consensus by 8%). The upbeat Up/Downside 34.7% margin was mainly attributable to DTC’s breakeven (ahead of guidance). Current Price US$105.39 Mgmt also raised its FY24E EPS growth target to 25% YoY (vs. prior at least ...
Attractive and defensive industrial play
信达国际控股· 2024-05-08 06:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for TK Group (Holdings) Limited with a target price of HK$2.44, indicating an upside potential of 28.5% from the current price of HK$1.90 [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to recover in FY24E, supported by a strong balance sheet and operational efficiency improvements. Despite a decline in FY23 revenue and net profit due to weak downstream demand, the blended gross margin increased to 26.4%, the highest since FY20, driven by significant improvements in the mold fabrication segment [6][8]. - The financial position remains robust, with net operating cash inflow up 20% YoY to HK$445 million in FY23 and a net cash position of approximately HK$1.1 billion, which is about 72% of the market cap [6][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% from FY23 to FY26E, with net profit expected to grow at 18.5% CAGR during the same period. The FY24E PE ratio is estimated at 6.1x, which is considered undemanding compared to historical averages and peers [8][9]. - The order book for FY23 was HK$830 million, primarily driven by automotive and healthcare sectors, which accounted for 46% of the total order book. The order book is expected to increase to approximately HK$1 billion by April [6][8]. Segment Performance - The mold fabrication segment's revenue is expected to grow from HK$620 million in FY23A to HK$718 million by FY26E, with a gross margin projected to remain above 30% [3][6]. - The plastic components manufacturing segment is forecasted to recover from a revenue drop in FY23A to HK$2,060 million by FY26E, with gross margins expected to stabilize in the mid-20s percentage range [3][6]. Dividend Policy - The company raised its dividend payout ratio to 80% in FY23, supported by low CAPEX and strong cash flow. The expected payout ratio for FY24E is projected to remain above 50%, translating into dividend yields of 10.8% and 13.6% for FY23 and FY24E, respectively [9][6]. Market Position and Client Diversification - TK Group continues to diversify its client portfolio, successfully engaging with leading global brands in various sectors, including automotive and healthcare. The company is optimistic about the growth potential in electronic atomizers, which are increasingly used in both e-cigarettes and medical devices [6][8].
1Q24 catastrophe-induced claims fully released;FY24 CoR guidance sustained; exp. >40% payout
招银国际· 2024-05-07 07:32
M N 7 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update PICC P&C (2328 HK) 1Q24 catastrophe-induced claims fully released; FY24 CoR guidance sustained; exp. >40% payout PICC P&C reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results given the 1Q24 CoR Target Price HK$11.90 slightly increased to 97.9% (vs: FY23: 97.8%) and auto/non-auto premium growth Up/Downside 25.9% dropped to +1.9%/+5.0% YoY (1Q23: +6.5%/+12.8% YoY). Dragged by increased Current Price HK$9.45 claims for low-temper ...
In a transition from tier-2 to tier-1 supplier
招银国际· 2024-05-07 03:32
Disclosures & Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analy ...