Workflow
Quality growth strategy underpins strong earnings growth
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-15 03:02
CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
Fundamentals to bottom out
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-15 01:02
M N 14 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Huya (HUYA US) Fundamentals to bottom out Target Price US$6.8 Huya’s 1Q24 results beat on margin, with topline/bottom line 1%/84% (Previous TP US$6.8) above consensus. Looking into 2Q24E, we expect revenue to achieve 5% Up/Downside 44.5% QoQ growth, in which livestreaming would bottom out and others revenue Current Price US$4.73 +25% OoQ. We are positive on Huya’s game-related business monetization and expect upside from mul ...
1Q2024 Results Were in Line with Expectations; 3+3 Strategy to Bring Continuous Increment, “Buy”
国泰君安证券· 2024-05-14 03:32
h 股 c r 票 a e s e R 研 y 究 tiu [ CTa ob mle_ pT ait nle y] Report: FIT Hon Teng (06088 HK) Gin Yu 余劲同 q E (852)2509 2113 公司报告: 鸿腾精密 (06088 HK) gin.yu@gtjas.com.hk 13 May 2024 1[T Qab 2le 0_S 2u 4m m Ra ery s] ults Were in Line with Expectations; 3+3 Strategy to Bring Continuous Increment, "Buy" tr 公 o p e 司 R  We maintain the investment rating as "Buy" and set TP to HK$2.42. We y [RTaabtlien_gR:a nk] Buy 报 n a forecast 2024-2026 EPS to be US$0.025/ US$0.034/ US$0.042, Maintained 告 p m respectively. Consider ...
1Q24 beat on strong music business growth and GPM expansion
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-14 02:32
M N 14 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update TME (TME US) 1Q24 beat on strong music business growth and GPM expansion Target Price US$16.00 TME reported 1Q24 results: total revenue declined by 3% YoY to RMB6.77bn, (Previous TP US$12.50) beating consensus estimate by 3% on strong online music revenue growth; non-IFRS Up/Downside 19.9% net income grew by 21% YoY to RMB1.70bn, 7% ahead of consensus estimate, Current Price US$13.34 primarily attributable to the solid GPM e ...
Expect an unexciting set of results in 1Q24E, potential recovery in 2H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-14 02:32
M N 14 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update SANY International (631 HK) Expect an unexciting set of results in 1Q24E, potential recovery in 2H24E SANYI is set to report 1Q24E financial data on 16 May (this Thu). We forecast Target Price HK$8.00 SANYI to deliver a ~15% YoY decrease in net profit from a high base, due to (1) (Previous TP HK$8.00) miners’ disciplined capex as a result of the decline in domestic coal production Up/Downside 24.8% in 1Q24; (2) keen competit ...
Embracing continued outperformance
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for GigaCloud (GCT US) with a target price of US$46, representing a 23.2% upside from the current price of US$37.35 [5][12]. Core Insights - GigaCloud delivered strong 1Q24 results with revenue growth of 96% YoY, reaching US$251 million, and net profit of US$27 million, up 71% YoY. The net profit margin slightly declined due to expenses from new fulfillment centers and foreign exchange fluctuations [2][4]. - The company expects 2Q24 revenue to be between US$265 million and US$280 million, indicating a growth of 73% to 83% YoY, driven by increased demand for outdoor furniture and an expanding fulfillment network [2][4]. - GigaCloud's global fulfillment network has expanded to 42 locations with over 10.5 million square feet, a 169% increase compared to March 31, 2023, which supports robust growth in both first-party and third-party business [2][4]. - The launch of the BaaS (Business as a Service) program is anticipated to unlock total addressable market (TAM) opportunities and enhance engagement between buyers and sellers, with a competitive fee structure [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$704 million in FY23 to US$1,112 million in FY24, with further increases to US$1,353 million in FY25 and US$1,632 million in FY26 [17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from US$94 million in FY23 to US$116 million in FY24, reaching US$150 million in FY25 and US$188 million in FY26 [17]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 27% for FY24E to FY26E, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24E to 11.5% in FY26E [12][17]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the equity value at US$1,896 million, leading to a target price of US$46 based on a 16x FY24E P/E multiple [13][14]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests a target price of US$46, with a terminal value of US$2,356 million, assuming a WACC of 15.7% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [14][15].
Huge boost in short run growth with high yield
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a new target price of HK$7.63, reflecting a 40.4% upside from the current price of HK$5.43 [4][7]. Core Views - The strategic disposal of K&P is expected to enhance short-term growth and improve cash flow, leading to a revision of FY24E-26E net profit estimates upwards by 2% to 5% [2][7]. - The valuation remains attractive at 10x FY24E P/E, compared to an 8-year average of 15x, alongside a 14% dividend yield for FY24E [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 15,371 million, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for FY26E [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,464.3 million in FY24E to RMB 2,557.2 million by FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 912.3 million in FY24E to RMB 1,775.7 million in FY26E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E net profit to RMB 1,275 million, FY25E to RMB 1,479 million, and FY26E to RMB 1,763 million, with respective growth rates of 3.6%, 2.2%, and 4.6% [8][9]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 42.3% for FY24E, while EBIT margin is projected to improve to 14.1% by FY25E [8]. Market Performance - Xtep's stock has shown a 39.9% increase over the past three months, outperforming the market [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$14,307.2 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Ding Shui Po and family at 49% [5].
1Q24 in line; Positive on AI server/networking and AirPods ramp-up in 2H24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-13 03:32
Investment Rating - FIT Hon Teng maintains a BUY rating with a new target price of HK$2 40 based on 11x FY24E P/E [2][13] Core View - FIT Hon Teng's 1Q24 results were in line with expectations driven by recovery in PC/server markets solid Voltaira business and strong Networking segment [2] - The company is expected to benefit from AirPods ramp-up integration of Voltaira auto electronics business and AI server/networking products in 2H24E [2] - Revenue and net profit are forecasted to rebound 12% and 52% YoY respectively in FY24E [2] - The stock's recent correction is attributed to profit-taking after a 101% rally in the past three months [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue reached US$965mn a 12% YoY increase while net profit was US$10 2mn compared to a loss of US$9 3mn in 1Q23 [2] - Gross profit margin improved by 450bps YoY to 20 3% due to a better product mix [2] - EV segment revenue surged 205% YoY driven by the Voltaira merger while Computing and Networking segments grew 6% and 9% YoY respectively [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at US$4 715mn with a 12 4% YoY growth and net profit is expected to reach US$199 6mn a 51 4% YoY increase [3][9] Segment Analysis - EV Mobility segment revenue jumped 205% YoY in 1Q24 due to the Voltaira merger [7] - Networking segment grew 9% YoY driven by AI demand and new CPU-related products [2] - Computing segment increased 6% YoY supported by market recovery [2] AI Server Opportunity - FIT Hon Teng expects US$500-1 000 content value per compute tray for AI servers in FY24E [2] - AI revenue share is projected to be 7-9% in FY24E up from 1% in FY23 [2] Valuation - The stock is trading at 8 9x/6 7x FY24/25E P/E which is considered attractive given multiple growth drivers [2][13] - The new target price of HK$2 40 is based on 11x FY24E P/E reflecting accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13] Growth Drivers - Key catalysts include AirPods shipments AI server product updates and continued revenue upside from auto business consolidation [13] - The company's "3+3 Strategy" is expected to drive accelerated growth and profitability recovery [13]
Consistently exceeding expectations
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-10 03:32
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, reflecting strong growth potential and robust pipeline [2][4][16] Core Insights - BeiGene's product sales in 1Q24 reached US$747 million, showing an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase, representing 25.7% of the previous FY24 estimate [2] - Zanubrutinib (zanu) sales were particularly strong, increasing 18% QoQ and 131% YoY to US$489 million, driven by market share gains in CLL in the US and expanded reimbursement in the EU [2] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, with expectations to break even by FY26E, supported by improving operating margins and narrowing net losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales Performance - Total product sales for BeiGene in 1Q24 were US$747 million, up 18% QoQ and 82% YoY [2] - Zanubrutinib captured approximately 21% of the global BTK inhibitor market in 1Q24, up from 18% in 4Q23 [2] Patent Dispute - A patent dispute with Pharmacyclics is nearing resolution, with the USPTO expected to issue a final decision on the validity of the contested patent within 12 months [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 83.3% in 1Q24 from 82.7% in FY23, driven by high-margin product sales [2] - Net loss narrowed to US$251 million in 1Q24 from US$368 million in 4Q23, better than expectations [2][3] Future Growth Potential - Upcoming clinical trials for sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 are expected to yield significant data, with potential blockbuster status anticipated [2] - Forecast for zanubrutinib sales in FY24 is US$2.2 billion, representing a 69% YoY increase [2] Target Price Adjustment - The DCF-based target price for BeiGene has been raised from US$268.20 to US$269.73, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of US$168.64 [4][12]
1Q24E preview: Expect strong earnings ahead; Raise TP to HK$23.77
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-05-09 03:02
M N 9 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) 1Q24E preview: Expect strong earnings ahead; Raise TP to HK$23.77 Target Price HK$23.77 Xiaomi will report 1Q24 results in late May. We estimate 1Q revenue/adj. net profit (Previous TP HK$22.19) to deliver 26%/67% YoY growth to RMB75.2bn/5.4bn, 5%/19% above consensus, Up/Downside 24.5% backed by strong smartphone shipments, better GPM across all segments and Current Price HK$19.10 prudent expense controls. Lo ...