Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) with a target price of HKD 60.3 [1][46]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's total revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 31.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, slightly above market expectations [1][20]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 3.95 billion, slightly exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [1][25]. - The marketing expense ratio increased due to promotional activities, while the company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][26]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Online marketing revenue: RMB 17.6 billion, up 20% year-on-year, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue [1][20]. - Live streaming rewards revenue: RMB 9.3 billion, down 3.9% year-on-year, accounting for 30% [1][20]. - Other services (mainly e-commerce): RMB 4.16 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, accounting for 13.4% [1][20]. - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 54.3%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][25]. User Growth and Engagement - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 408 million, growing 5.4% year-on-year, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 714 million, growing 4.3% year-on-year [1][32]. - Average daily usage time per DAU was 132.2 minutes, up 1.8% year-on-year [1][32]. Commercialization and Business Segments - Online marketing revenue continues to grow, driven by AI and algorithm improvements, with external marketing services showing significant growth [1][35]. - E-commerce revenue showed stable growth, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reaching RMB 334.2 billion, up 15.1% year-on-year [1][38]. - Live streaming rewards revenue decline is slowing, with a focus on diversifying content and enhancing the live streaming ecosystem [1][44]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been slightly raised to RMB 17.6 billion, while forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered due to increased competition and marketing expenses [1][46]. - The report anticipates continued growth in user engagement and a healthy ecosystem, maintaining a target valuation multiple for different business segments [1][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance met expectations, with Q3 2024 total revenue reaching 31.131 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, slightly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 30.030 billion RMB, driven by growth in online marketing services and other services [3]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 3.948 billion RMB, up 24.4% year-on-year, also slightly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.909 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.7% [3]. - Daily active users (DAU) surpassed 400 million, reaching 407.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with average daily usage time per user at 132 minutes [3]. - The online marketing services segment showed strong performance, with revenue of 17.634 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue [3]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached 334.2 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with active buyers increasing by 12.2% [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 113.47 billion RMB, with a projected revenue of 127.23 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.1% [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 54.6% in 2024 [2]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from 10.27 billion RMB in 2023 to 17.71 billion RMB in 2024, with an adjusted net profit margin increasing from 9.1% to 13.9% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with strong growth in mass gaming and non-gaming segments, despite a slowdown in VIP segment recovery [5]. - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at HKD 304.4 billion, HKD 323.1 billion, and HKD 339.7 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 23.3%, 6.1%, and 5.1% respectively [5]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout, with a projected dividend yield of 5.8% for 2024 based on a 50% payout ratio [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: HKD 246.8 billion - 2024E: HKD 304.4 billion (YoY growth: 23.3%) - 2025E: HKD 323.1 billion (YoY growth: 6.1%) - 2026E: HKD 339.7 billion (YoY growth: 5.1%) [4][5] - **EBITDA**: - 2023A: HKD 72.4 billion - 2024E: HKD 84.3 billion (YoY growth: 16.6%) - 2025E: HKD 87.2 billion (YoY growth: 3.4%) - 2026E: HKD 90.7 billion (YoY growth: 4.0%) [4][5] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: HKD 26.4 billion - 2024E: HKD 41.9 billion (YoY growth: 58.6%) - 2025E: HKD 47.8 billion (YoY growth: 14.2%) - 2026E: HKD 54.1 billion (YoY growth: 13.2%) [4][5] - **Key Ratios**: - EBITDA Margin: - 2023A: 29.3% - 2024E: 27.7% - 2025E: 27.0% - 2026E: 26.7% [4][5] - Net Profit Margin: - 2023A: 10.7% - 2024E: 13.7% - 2025E: 14.8% - 2026E: 15.9% [4][5] Market Data - Closing Price (as of November 15, 2024): HKD 9.47 - Total Shares Outstanding: 3.801 billion - Total Market Capitalization: HKD 360 billion - Total Assets: HKD 300.35 billion - Total Liabilities: HKD 30.51 billion [2][4].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Trip com Group-S (09961 HK) reported strong Q3 2024 results with net revenue of RMB 15 9 billion up 16% YoY and adjusted EBITDA of RMB 5 7 billion with a margin of 36% up 2pct YoY Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders was RMB 6 billion up 22% YoY both exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] - Domestic hotel ADR showed signs of stabilization with the YoY decline narrowing from double digits to low single digits in Q3 2024 The company's hotel occupancy rate in Q4 has surpassed the same period in 2023 and is expected to achieve better YoY growth in domestic hotel revenue [2] - Outbound travel continued to grow strongly with international flight capacity recovering to 80% of 2019 levels and outbound hotel and flight bookings reaching 120% of 2019 levels The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in outbound travel as international flights further recover [2] - Trip com the company's international platform saw significant growth in Q3 2024 with flight and hotel bookings increasing over 60% YoY contributing approximately 9% to total revenue Bookings from the Asia-Pacific region grew over 70% YoY Trip com has become the top OTA app in markets including South Korea Singapore Malaysia and Thailand [3] - Inbound travel also grew rapidly with inbound hotel bookings increasing approximately 100% YoY in Q3 2024 The expansion of visa-free policies is expected to further drive Trip com's growth [3] - Despite ongoing investments in international operations the company's Q3 2024 gross margin remained stable at 82% and adjusted operating profit margin increased by 2 3pct YoY to 34% exceeding expectations [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 52 947 million in 2024E to RMB 67 055 million in 2026E with YoY growth rates of 18 96% 15 06% and 10 07% respectively [1] - Net income attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 16 680 million in 2024E to RMB 20 134 million in 2026E with YoY growth rates of 68 18% 10 20% and 9 54% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from RMB 17 553 million in 2024E to RMB 20 945 million in 2026E with YoY growth rates of 34 29% 9 33% and 9 14% respectively [1] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 24 40 in 2024E to RMB 29 46 in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio based on the latest diluted EPS is expected to decrease from 19 06x in 2024E to 15 79x in 2026E [1] Market and Financial Data - The stock's closing price was HKD 500 00 with a 52-week range of HKD 251 40 to HKD 548 50 [6] - The company's market capitalization was HKD 341 763 89 million with a P/B ratio of 2 46x [6] - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 247 738 51 million in 2024E to RMB 304 491 75 million in 2026E [11] - Net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase from RMB 20 860 13 million in 2024E to RMB 23 885 32 million in 2026E [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in gross margin, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points, reaching 54.3% in Q3 2024. Revenue for Q3 2024 was 31.13 billion, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year growth. Adjusted net profit increased by 24.4% year-on-year to 3.95 billion [4] - The company is expected to maintain its profitability growth, with projected net profits of 15.623 billion, 19.572 billion, and 23.361 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to EPS of 3.6, 4.5, and 5.4 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 311.3 billion (up 11.4% YoY), with adjusted net profit at 39.5 billion (up 24.4% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA at 55.8 billion (up 12% YoY). For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 915.1 billion (up 13.1% YoY) [4] - The company’s revenue structure shows online marketing service revenue at 176 billion (up 20% YoY), driven by the successful implementation of the IAA model, leading to a more than 300% increase in short video marketing consumption [7] User Growth and Engagement - The platform's Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 408 million (up 5.4% YoY), while Monthly Active Users (MAU) were 714 million (up 4.3% YoY). The average daily online marketing revenue per user was 43.3 (up 13.9% YoY) [8] Market Expansion and AI Development - The company is expanding internationally, with the launch of the Kwai Shop e-commerce platform in Brazil, covering all 27 states. The AI capabilities are also being enhanced with the release of the 可灵AI 1.5 version, which supports content creation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 2024 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in international business [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 15.9 billion HKD, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was 6 billion HKD, up 21.7% year-over-year, and significantly higher than Bloomberg consensus expectations by 24.9% [2] - The report emphasizes that outbound and international business remain the main drivers of the company's performance growth, with international hotel and flight bookings surpassing 60% year-over-year growth [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue by segment: - Accommodation booking revenue: 6.8 billion HKD (yoy +21.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.7 billion HKD (yoy +5.3%) - Vacation business revenue: 1.6 billion HKD (yoy +17.3%) - Business travel management revenue: 660 million HKD (yoy +11.0%) - Other business revenue: 1.2 billion HKD (yoy +40.9%) [2] - The company expects revenues of 52.8 billion, 60.7 billion, and 69.3 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 18.4%, 15.1%, and 14.1% [4][6] - The projected adjusted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.7 billion, 19.8 billion, and 23 billion HKD, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.7%, 11.4%, and 16.4% [4][6] Key Financial Metrics - Major financial indicators for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E: - Revenue: 44.6 billion, 52.8 billion, 60.7 billion, 69.3 billion HKD - Non-IFRS net profit: 13.1 billion, 17.7 billion, 19.8 billion, 23 billion HKD - Gross margin: 82% for 2024E and 2025E, 81% for 2026E - P/E ratio: 26.2 for 2023A, decreasing to 14.9 by 2026E [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [6][10]. Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a business volume of 8.723 billion pieces in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, although its market share decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 20.0% [1]. - The company adjusted its annual business volume guidance for 2024 to between 33.7 billion and 33.9 billion pieces, with a projected Q4 volume of 9.35 to 9.55 billion pieces, indicating a growth rate of 7.5% to 9.8% [1]. - The increase in low-value e-commerce packages poses challenges to the company's strategy of achieving synchronized growth in service quality, business volume, and profits [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q3, ZTO's single-package revenue was CNY 1.19, up 1.9% year-on-year, driven by an increase in direct customer revenue, particularly in the parcel business, which saw over 40% growth [2]. - The company’s single-package core cost decreased by approximately CNY 0.06 year-on-year, with transportation costs down 9.7% and sorting costs down 6.4% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 31.2% in Q3, attributed to revenue growth and cost optimization [3]. - However, the net profit margin slightly declined due to increased operating expenses and tax fees [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts ZTO's net profit for 2024-2026 to be CNY 93.83 billion, CNY 117.18 billion, and CNY 133.70 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5X, 10.0X, and 8.8X [3][7]. - ZTO's strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction allow it to maintain a premium on revenue, avoiding the pitfalls of industry cost competition [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Baidu, highlighting strong quarterly performance and growth in AI applications. Core Insights - Baidu's Q3 2024 revenue reached 33.6 billion yuan, with core revenue at 26.5 billion yuan and a core net profit of 7.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The daily call volume of Baidu's Wenxin large model has surged to 1.5 billion, a nearly 30-fold increase from 50 million calls reported in Q4 of the previous year [2][7] - Baidu plans to launch a new version of the Wenxin large model in early 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 4.9 billion yuan, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, with AI-related revenue exceeding 11% of total revenue [11] - The user base for Wenxin Yiyan has grown to 430 million, a more than 500% increase within a year [9] AI Strategy and Applications - Baidu has established a long-term strategy driven by AI, focusing on application-driven development to enhance usability and effectiveness of AI models [8] - The introduction of the no-code development tool "Miao Da" allows users to build systems through natural language interaction, attracting over 5,000 enterprises for testing [12][13] Market Position and Ecosystem - Baidu's intelligent cloud holds a 26.4% market share in China's AI public cloud service market, maintaining the top position for five consecutive years [11] - The integration of AI capabilities into Baidu's products, such as Baidu Wenku, has led to a 300% year-on-year increase in monthly active users for AI features [16]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 1.89 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, primarily driven by accelerated growth in AI business [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 9.8%, showing strong operational momentum, with a significant year-on-year increase of 12.6 percentage points [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its ecosystem with Xiaomi and Kingsoft, with a revenue cap of 11.3 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 gross profit was 300 million yuan, up 54.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.1%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points [1] - Public cloud revenue in Q3 2024 was 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, while AI revenue reached 360 million yuan, accounting for 31% of public cloud revenue [1] - Industry cloud revenue was 710 million yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.7% and 8.0%, respectively [1] Strategic Developments - The company signed a cooperation agreement with Zhuhai High-tech Zone to support the development of a "Cloud Smart City" [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing profitability and sustainability in its industry cloud projects, particularly in public services, healthcare, and finance [1] Profitability Forecast - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is revised down to -2.09 billion yuan, while the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted up to -210 million yuan and 160 million yuan, respectively [1] - The company is expected to achieve positive adjusted operating profit margin by 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024 HK) [6][29] Core Views - Kuaishou's DAU exceeded 400 million with steady growth in e-commerce GMV [2] - Revenue increased by 11% YoY with adjusted net profit margin up by 1 percentage point [2] - Total traffic increased by 7% YoY in Q3 2024, with DAU surpassing 400 million [15] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 31 1 billion yuan, up 11% YoY [2] - Gross margin improved to 54 3%, up 2 6 percentage points YoY [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 3 95 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12 7% [2] - Domestic revenue grew by 9% YoY to 29 8 billion yuan, while overseas revenue was 1 33 billion yuan with an operating loss of 150 million yuan [2] User Metrics - MAU reached 714 million in Q3 2024, up 4% YoY [15] - DAU reached 408 million in Q3 2024, up 5% YoY [15] - Average daily time spent per user increased to 132 minutes, up 2% YoY [15] Commercialization - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% YoY to 334 2 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [22] - Advertising revenue increased by 20% YoY to 17 6 billion yuan, with out-loop advertising growing by 30% YoY [26] - Live streaming revenue declined by 4% YoY to 9 34 billion yuan [26] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 10 8% in 2024E, reaching 125 7 billion yuan [5] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 17 7 billion yuan in 2024E, up 72 6% YoY [5] - E-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 14% in Q4 2024 [22] Valuation - The fair value range is estimated at 70 00 - 93 00 HKD [6] - The current share price is 52 55 HKD, with a market cap of 226 7 billion HKD [6]