美以伊冲突持续，全球资本市场表现如何？ —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 1 期） 分析师：许冬石、吴京 CGS-NDI 周度报告 美以伊冲突持续，全球资本市场表现如何？ —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 1 期） 2026 年 3 月 23 日 核心观点 分析师 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 许冬石 ：010-8092 7609 ：xudongshi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 吴京 ：010-8092 7702 ：wujing_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523080001 研究助理：郝安琪 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 | 一、 | 本期焦点：美以伊冲突影响全球资本市场几何？ | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 | 全球资本市场行情概览 | 5 | | （一）A | 股、港股行情回顾 | 5 | | | （二）海外 ...

Core Insights - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][15][18] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the gaming sector, projecting continued industry prosperity into 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Tencent and NetEase due to their favorable valuations [4][18] - The report identifies significant opportunities in AI and its applications across various sectors, suggesting that AI-driven innovations will lead to a new round of value reassessment in the market [4][21] E-commerce - Alibaba's MaaS business and the progress of its Qianwen model are expected to encourage a return to SOTP valuation perspectives in the market [4][15] - The report notes that Alibaba's recent performance was below expectations, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to its AI capabilities and integration with its commercial ecosystem [15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent is expected to continue leveraging the commercialization potential of WeChat, while Bilibili's advertising growth is projected to outpace the overall internet advertising market, with a forecasted revenue growth rate of 27% in Q4 2025 [4][15][18] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are strengthening their partnerships with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to robust revenue and profit growth [4][16] Short Videos - The report highlights the commercial potential of short video platforms, benefiting from technological advancements, with expectations of increased capital investment in 2026 [4][16] IP and Toy Market - Pop Mart is expected to enhance its collaboration with overseas designers and strengthen its local IP penetration into international markets, supported by store upgrades and a diverse SKU offering [4][16] Long Videos - The report indicates that the long video sector is stabilizing in terms of membership and advertising revenue, with a focus on exploring new business opportunities related to the main industry [4][17] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU, although there are concerns about competition from new players leading to valuation adjustments [4][17] Gaming Sector - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, with expectations of continued industry prosperity into 2026, recommending companies with strong product pipelines and growth potential [4][18] - The report suggests that new game launches will catalyze growth, with several major titles scheduled for release [13][18] Advertising - The report notes a significant increase in internet advertising investment, particularly in consumer categories, driven by major events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup [4][18] AI Developments - The report highlights advancements in AI technologies, with expectations of a new wave of model iterations and commercial applications emerging in 2026 [4][21]

DeepSeek 核心人才入职百度，但不是郭达雅 3 月 21 日下午，AI 圈传出一则人事动态消息，社交媒体上有人称，DeepSeek 核心技术人员已正式 加盟百度，岗位归属百度模型研发部（AMU）。该消息一经流出，迅速引发行业关注与猜测。 消息发酵初期，坊间普遍猜测此次入职百度的 DeepSeek 核心人员，是大模型 AI coding 领域的知名 专家郭达雅。据悉，郭达雅为中山大学与微软亚洲研究院（MSRA）联合培养博士，深耕代码生成与 数学推理大模型领域，曾主导 DeepSeek-Coder、DeepSeekMath 等核心项目，是 DeepSeek 的核 心骨干之一，其近期确有从 DeepSeek 离职的消息传出。 摘要：DeepSeek 核心人才入职百度，但不是郭达雅；腾讯 AI Lab 撤销，部分人员并入混元；宇树某 程序员发帖称：宇树对外标榜弹性双休，内部却是另一套规则，非常卷；网易回应"AI 清退外包"传 闻：系部分项目正常调整与人员优化；男子因造谣"科大讯飞裁员 30%"被拘；傅盛朋友圈开撕周鸿 祎：你欠一个亿未还，还删我；Cursor 新模型被指套壳 Kimi K2.5，联创回应：确实是 ...

站在理性的视角， 无论是上涨还是下跌导致情绪过于一致（过于乐观或过于悲观）时，往往容易上演反转的剧情 。近期的反弹就是一个很好的 情绪逻辑验证。 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 众所周知，从2025年10月初以来， 恒生科技 指数先后经历了 2波较大的调整，累计最大回撤超25% 。其中，第2波调整（主要发生在2026年2 月）导致恒生科技的表现在全球大类资产中垫底，对恒生科技的质疑仿佛一场大型网暴现场，让很多投资者感到绝望，以致引发市场热议。 3、AI叙事对恒生科技是危险也是机会 扫码看全文 -- 恒生科技近半年经历了2轮不一样的调整 首先，让我们来回顾下恒生科技近期的两波调整。 而站在当前时点，普通投资者不禁要问： 现在的恒生科技，究竟是 "黄金坑"的做多机会，还是再次"接飞刀"的陷阱？ 本文将结合最新数据与市 场逻辑，为你深度拆解这一核心问题。 和臭排 恒生科技可以布局了吗? 1、从估值看:恒生科技已经到了"便宜"区间 2、内资在"越跌越买"，外资重估港股避险价值 截至2026年3月17日， 恒生科技指数的滚动市盈率（ PE-TTM）已降至约20 .93 倍。 低于指数成立 ...

3 月 18 日 网传网易游戏大裁员的消息，好在当天网易紧急辟谣，表示消失不实 。 这让我想起在二月初刷到的一个某脉帖子：一个外包老哥在 网易游戏同事圈发帖说 被组长通知"用不到外 包了"，眼看房贷要断供、高薪工作难找，他问："给组长下跪有用吗？能不能求个留下的机会？ " 底下有条调侃留言更扎心："你躺下都没用。" 外包身份：高薪背后是随时被丢弃的炮灰 大厂外包拿着比小厂高的薪资，却连正式工的边角料都算不上。项目红火时你是"高效人力"，业务收缩时你 就是"优化首选"。 那个发帖老哥怕的不是失业，是"再也找不到这么高工资的外包"，本质是用尊严换短期饭票， 高薪外包从 来都是饮鸩止渴的陷阱 。 下跪求助有啥用？ 想靠下跪留下来，本质是把命运交到别人手里。 可问题是，组长决定不了业务预算，他也不是优化决定的拍板人，更救不了你的房贷，下跪换不来怜悯， 大概率只会换来"这人有点没底线"的评价。 打工人的安全感从来不是求来的，是手里的技能、存款和退路给的， 别让房贷成了枷锁 原贴不是个例，是无数大厂外包的缩影：拿着看似光鲜的薪水，过着朝不保夕的日子。 几个小建议： 1. 留足 6 个月以上生活费，别让房贷把你逼到绝境 2 ...

Key Points - The article discusses various significant developments in the technology and automotive sectors, highlighting trends and company performances in AI, electric vehicles, and corporate strategies [4][6][12][19][30][36][48]. Group 1: AI Developments - Japan's Rakuten AI 3.0 was criticized for allegedly copying the Chinese open-source model DeepSeek V3, leading to public backlash and discussions about the integrity of AI development in Japan [4][5]. - Tencent's annual report revealed a significant increase in employee compensation, with an average annual salary cost exceeding 1 million RMB, reflecting the company's growth and investment in talent [6][7]. - Baidu appointed He Jingzhou as the head of its App R&D center to enhance the integration of large models with search and recommendation services, indicating a strategic focus on AI advancements [10][12]. Group 2: Automotive Industry Insights - Geely's Vice President confirmed that Dong Mingzhu ordered three Zeekr 009 vehicles, highlighting a growing trend of high-profile Chinese entrepreneurs supporting domestic luxury brands [8][9]. - Chery Automobile announced its energy strategy, introducing the Rhino battery technology, which emphasizes safety and sustainability in electric vehicle production [12][13]. - Chery's financial report showed a record revenue of 300.29 billion RMB in 2025, with a 36.1% increase in net profit, driven by strong sales in both domestic and international markets [36][37]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies and Market Trends - ByteDance introduced internal security protocols for its employees, emphasizing the importance of data protection and compliance in the tech industry [19]. - The automotive sector is witnessing a shift as traditional manufacturers face pressure from domestic brands, leading to performance-based employee evaluations and potential layoffs in some companies [21][22]. - OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, focusing on enterprise-level business to strengthen its commercialization efforts, indicating a trend towards public offerings in the tech sector [54].

Group 1 - Apple CEO Tim Cook was spotted in Chengdu, denying retirement rumors and attending a special event for Apple's 50th anniversary [3] - Tencent's CEO Ma Huateng discussed the "shrimp" application concept, emphasizing its potential to integrate AI into various scenarios beyond traditional ChatBot applications [5] - Tencent's QClaw AI assistant announced a version update, enhancing its capabilities and expanding its internal testing [5] Group 2 - Chery Automobile announced a strategic entry into controllable nuclear fusion, aiming to harness fusion energy for long-term human use [9] - Tencent reported a record high in R&D investment of 857.5 billion yuan and capital expenditure of 792 billion yuan for 2025, with a 13% year-on-year revenue growth [9] - Ideal Auto's L series models have stopped accepting new orders as the company prepares to launch new versions [9] Group 3 - Baidu appointed He Jingzhou to lead the integration of large models with search and recommendation services, enhancing the application of cutting-edge technologies [10] - NetEase denied rumors of mass layoffs involving AI, stating that recent personnel changes were part of normal business adjustments [10] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang highlighted OpenClaw as a significant advancement in human-AI interaction, predicting it to be the next ChatGPT [10] Group 4 - GAC Group established a Powertrain Business Unit to integrate its core power business, aiming for a more agile and innovative operational model [10] - Elon Musk is negotiating a settlement with the SEC regarding undisclosed Twitter stock purchases prior to his acquisition offer [10] - Faraday Future announced a stock purchase plan for executives and employees, allowing them to defer part of their salaries for stock acquisition [10] Group 5 - Germany plans to significantly increase AI computing power by 2030, aiming to become a leading data center hub in Europe [10] - Warner Bros. Discovery's CEO David Zaslav is set to gain over $667.2 million from the sale of the company to Paramount [10] - Samsung's union announced a total strike in May, which is expected to impact chip production, particularly DRAM and NAND flash memory [10] Group 6 - Buick launched its first pure electric MPV, priced at 489,900 yuan, featuring advanced charging and driving assistance technologies [18] - ByteDance's security team released safety guidelines for OpenClaw and introduced ByteClaw for internal resource management [20] - China's semiconductor industry is projected to see an investment of approximately 784.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting resilience amid global industry adjustments [20]

② 3 月 18 日，"网易将用 AI 全面清退外包"的消息在社交平台刷屏，网传版本称网易互娱计划 4 月裁掉 30~40% 外包，5 月清退 80% 甚至全部，并用自研 AI 替代编程、美术、测试等岗位，要求员工必须用 AI 并写入周 报。 | 网易要下大雨了 | | | --- | --- | | | | | 有多大啊 | | | | | | 公司要大裁员了 | 没这么慢 | | 外编 4.1 裁员 30% | | | | 我们组的外包,第五人格的外包都 | | 5.1 全裁 | 清理了 | | | 老板用的词是"清理"，当时老大 | | | 正在开会投屏,老板私聊过来,我 | | | 要你清理掉所有的外包 | | 10 11 | | | 4.1 和 5.1 是啥意思 | | | 11 1 | | | 4月1 | | | 5月1 | | （网传截图） 有博主估计，按照网易游戏的外编人数来预估，这将影响 上 千人。 今天傍晚，网易官方紧急辟谣，明确表示： 网传"使用 AI 清退全部外包"信息不实 。 官方解释，" 近期发生的人员变动仅为部分项目的正常业务调整与人员汰换，属于企业日常运营管理的一部 分，不会对 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant changes in Google's payment policies, which are expected to benefit high-quality overseas game developers by improving profit margins and operational autonomy [5] - The overseas revenue from self-developed games in China is projected to reach USD 20.455 billion in 2025, maintaining a steady growth trend [5] - The introduction of third-party payment systems and application stores is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape for game distribution platforms [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 825.13, with a 52-week high of 1021.75 and a low of 591.71 [1] Recent Developments - Google announced a significant reduction in its service fees from 30% to 20% or lower, which is expected to alleviate the financial burden on developers relying on in-app purchases (IAP) [5] - The new policy allows developers to utilize third-party payment systems, thereby increasing their operational independence and reducing costs [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a high proportion of overseas game revenue, such as Century Huatong, Giant Network, and Perfect World, as well as those with third-party platform capabilities like Xindong Company, Tencent, and NetEase [7]

3月18日，晨星分析师Ivan Su在一份报告中表示，苹果公司削减其中国大陆App Store向游戏开发者收取 的佣金，这对腾讯和网易是一个有利因素。她预计，苹果公司的降费，加上谷歌降低其Play Store服务 费，可能会改善这些中国游戏公司的利润率，并使其营业利润今年因此提升低个位数百分比。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 她补充说，如果包括华为和小米集团运营的那些Android应用商店也纷纷效仿，那么这两家公司的营业 利润可能会上升中到高个位数百分比。晨星维持对腾讯800.00港元和对网易200.00美元的合理价值估 计，并指出这两只股票仍被严重低估。 ...