Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 112.6 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The Q4 revenue was 27.5 billion RMB, showing a 3.0% increase year-on-year. The gross profit for the year was 72.4 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33.8 billion RMB, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 37.3 billion RMB. The operating cash flow for the year was a net inflow of 50.7 billion RMB, with a cash balance of 163.5 billion RMB at year-end [6][8] - The company has integrated AI deeply into its game development process, which, along with the global launch of new titles such as "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Clash," has expanded its gaming ecosystem and validated its long-term operational capabilities [6][8] - The gaming segment remains the core engine, with revenue from games and related services reaching 92.1 billion RMB in 2025, up from 83.6 billion RMB in 2024. Q4 revenue was 22.0 billion RMB, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, driven by titles like "Dream of the Red Chamber" and new self-developed games [6][8] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 121.2 billion RMB, 123.0 billion RMB, and 138.7 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.65%, 7.21%, and 6.68%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 36.8 billion RMB, 40.4 billion RMB, and 43.9 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 9.14%, 9.75%, and 8.67% [7][8] - The report highlights a stable gross margin of 64.29% for 2025, with an expected increase to 66.16% by 2028. The net profit margin is projected to rise from 29.98% in 2025 to 31.69% in 2028 [13] - The company maintains a strong cash position, with a net cash balance of 163.5 billion RMB at the end of 2025, and has extended its share buyback program until January 2029, having repurchased approximately 2 billion USD worth of shares [6][8]

市场定价由"通胀"初步切换至"衰退"逻辑 —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 2 期） 分析师：许冬石、吴京 CGS-NDI 周度报告 市场定价由"通胀"初步切换至"衰退"逻辑 —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 2 期） 2026 年 3 月 30 日 核心观点 分析师 许冬石 ：010-8092 7609 ：xudongshi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 吴京 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ：010-8092 7702 ：wujing_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523080001 研究助理：郝安琪 美以伊冲突以来全球主要股指涨跌幅情况 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 本周焦点（3 月 23 日-29 日）：特朗普"压力线"或已逐渐显现。自美以伊 冲突升级以来，原油价格与美国国债收益率走势大体一致，而每当原油价格、 美债收益率上升至一定敏感区间（如 ...

本文字数：3548，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯小芯 乐琰 陈杨园 安安是一名大学生，最近因为毕业论文而焦虑，晚上总是睡不好觉，干脆从本就不多的生活费里抽出 400多元，给自己买了一个新锐品牌的深睡枕。 沈莹是一位90后宝妈，由于长期伏案工作和带娃，她总是感觉腰酸背痛，近期投入2万多买了一个时 下流行的智能床垫。 2026.03. 29 安安和沈莹这样的消费需求，正是当下床品市场的写照：当代人的睡眠困扰已然成为撬动床品市场格 局的深刻变量，一些洞察睡眠痛点、细分场景的新品牌新势力快速崛起，而固守传统赛道的床品品 牌，则面临用户流失、市场城池被逐步攻陷的严峻挑战。 这些床品新势力在崛起 在淘宝平台近期的枕头热销榜单中，第一财经发现，前10名中，亚朵星球、睡眠方程式、蓝盒子等 新锐品牌占据绝大多数席位，传统品牌仅水星勉强入围，罗莱、梦洁、富安娜等家纺巨头，在枕头这 个榜单上已然掉队。 除了枕头，四件套、被芯、床垫等床品市场的核心品类，也正在被跨界的新势力新品牌蚕食。 例如网易、京东等互联网公司陆续开发自有品牌，打造了乳胶枕、夏凉被、棉花被等床品爆款，还将 产品线延伸到宠物、家清、办公等多个领域。网易 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report suggests a positive outlook for the internet sector, particularly in e-commerce, social entertainment media, online travel, short videos, and IP-driven markets, with expectations of marginal improvements in profitability and stock performance for companies like Meituan and Tencent [4][15][18] - The gaming sector is expected to maintain strong fundamentals, with Tencent and NetEase identified as companies with significant valuation advantages, alongside recommendations for Century Huatong and Giant Network due to their robust product pipelines [4][18] - The advertising sector shows promising growth, with a notable increase in internet advertising investments, particularly around major events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup, indicating a potential boost for companies like Focus Media [4][18] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing competition in the e-commerce space, with Meituan focusing on high-quality growth and improving its economic model, which may lead to a rebound in stock prices [4][15][16] - In the social entertainment media sector, Tencent is expected to leverage the commercialization potential of WeChat, while Bilibili is projected to lead in advertising growth [4][15][18] - The AI sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of model iteration in Q2 2026, with significant investment trends centered around computing power and model development, suggesting a potential revaluation of AI-related companies [4][20] Group 3: Company Performance - Meituan's first quarter of 2026 is expected to show improvements in its delivery service profitability, with a focus on maintaining market share in core categories [4][15][16] - Tencent's new game "King of Glory: World" has recently topped the iOS sales chart, indicating strong market competitiveness and potential for future growth [4][12][18] - Kuaishou reported a total revenue of 142.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 12.5% year-on-year growth, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16.5% [4][33]

Summary of NetEase Inc. (NTES) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NetEase Inc. (NTES) - **Industry**: Internet and Gaming Key Points Discussed AI Impact on Game Development - AI is viewed as a significant efficiency enhancer in the gaming industry, particularly in R&D, talent development, and monetization [2][6] - Management emphasized that while AI can improve efficiency in labor-intensive workflows, the essence of game development lies in creative vision and engineering capabilities [2][6] - AI is seen as a tool to amplify the capabilities of top-tier developers rather than a replacement for creativity [2][6] Globalization Strategy - The company is focusing on large-scale online titles, especially RPGs, developed by domestic studios for the global market, rather than relying on overseas studios [2][10] - Management noted that AI is improving efficiency in software engineering, particularly for repetitive tasks, but artistic creation remains a significant part of game development [10] - The company is scaling back overseas studios, particularly those focused on traditional single-player titles, to concentrate resources on domestic studios [10][12] Revenue Recognition and Margin Outlook - Revenue deferral is governed by GAAP principles, with one-off consumables recognized immediately and permanent items recognized over their estimated lifecycle [14] - Historically, mobile games had revenue recognition periods of 3 to 6 months, while longer-lifecycle titles may extend up to 12 months [14] - Management expects margins to trend upward following reductions in take rates from Apple and Google, although the impact may not be significant in reported P&L [14] Major Game Titles and Pipeline - Upcoming titles include "Sea of Remnants," slated for a 3Q26 launch, and "ANANTA," which is still in the R&D phase [14] - Management reiterated that the competitiveness of a game is determined by the unique value it provides to players, with flagship titles demonstrating sustained user engagement and monetization [13] Structural Opportunities and Market Trends - Management highlighted shifts in overseas player demographics, with younger generations favoring online, free-to-play experiences that traditional Western publishers struggle to address [10] - The success of "Where Winds Meet" boosted management's confidence in the global market, indicating lower cultural barriers than previously assumed [10] Financial Outlook - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of $164 for NTES and HK$257 for 9999.HK, indicating an upside potential of approximately 44.6% and 45.1% respectively [17][18] - Key risks include weaker performance of legacy games, slower monetization ramp-up of new games, and rising content costs [17] Additional Insights - Management's focus on immersive user experiences and engagement is expected to drive higher monetization over time [11] - The company is prioritizing capacity expansion and productivity improvement to meet player demand [11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting NetEase's strategic focus on AI, globalization, and game development, along with its financial outlook and market positioning.

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is experiencing a significant shift towards AI integration, leading to potential job losses, particularly in outsourced positions, as companies seek to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [2][3][12]. Group 1: AI Integration in Gaming - Companies like NetEase have reported that their AI-native development pipeline covers the entire production process, with efficiency improvements of up to 300% in certain areas [3][13]. - A trend is emerging where skilled employees using AI can replace multiple non-AI users, particularly in roles such as art and writing, which are highly susceptible to automation [5][6]. - The gaming industry is broadly adopting AI tools, with many companies conducting training sessions to enhance employee proficiency in AI applications [9][10]. Group 2: Job Displacement and Industry Impact - The majority of outsourced positions in gaming are execution-based, which are at high risk of being replaced by AI, accounting for over 70% of daily tasks [6][14]. - Positions that require strategic thinking, such as game design and planning, are less likely to be replaced by AI due to the need for human judgment and experience [7][14]. - The current wave of AI-driven job cuts is not expected to create new job opportunities, leading to a one-sided elimination of human labor in the industry [12][20]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The cost of using AI tools is significantly lower than human labor, making it an attractive option for companies looking to reduce expenses [10][11]. - Companies are increasingly viewing AI as a means to streamline operations and enhance profitability, leading to a broader trend of workforce optimization across the industry [11][12]. Group 4: Social Responsibility and Ethical Considerations - The rapid adoption of AI in the gaming industry raises concerns about the treatment of outsourced workers, who often lack job security and benefits [20][21]. - Companies are urged to consider their social responsibilities and the potential backlash from public perception regarding job losses due to AI [16][20]. - There is a call for companies to implement measures that protect labor rights and provide support for displaced workers, aligning with ESG principles [21][22].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 272 points, closing at 25,335 points, marking a two-day cumulative increase of 953 points or 3.91% [3][4] - The market experienced a high of 25,390 points during the day, with a total trading volume of 350.93 billion [3] - Notable stock performances included Meituan, which surged by 13.9% to HKD 90, and Alibaba, which increased by 4.6% to HKD 128.9 [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a salary increase of 2.65% for its employees, along with a performance-based bonus amounting to 20.04% of total salaries [7] - The appointment of Liang Fengyi as the chair of the Asia-Pacific Committee of the International Organization of Securities Commissions was confirmed, aiming to enhance regional market resilience [8] - China’s Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining stable semiconductor supply chains during a meeting with Samsung's leadership, highlighting opportunities for investment cooperation [10] Group 3 - Conch Venture's annual profit increased by 11.17% to RMB 2.245 billion, with a revenue rise of 4.42% to RMB 6.548 billion [11] - New World Development secured a HKD 20 billion syndicated loan for refinancing, with a competitive interest rate [12] - China Eastern Airlines signed a purchase agreement for 101 A320NEO aircraft, with a total catalog price of approximately USD 15.802 billion, indicating significant investment in fleet expansion [13] Group 4 - Kingsoft Cloud reported a narrowed annual net loss of RMB 936 million, with total revenue increasing by 22.78% to RMB 9.559 billion [14]

Core Insights - The Amplify Video Game Leaders ETF (GAMR) underwent a significant rebalance in March, involving 22 constituent adjustments aimed at capturing a shifting global landscape and reinforcing core gaming fundamentals [1] Group 1: Changes in Holdings - The rebalance included a notable shift from U.S.-listed shares of NetEase, Inc. (NTES) to Hong Kong-listed shares (9999) at a 2.5% weight, indicating a preference for local listings for international companies [2] - Bilibili Inc (9626) was added to the portfolio at a 2.5% weight, enhancing exposure to digital entertainment platforms linked to gaming and streaming [2] Group 2: Weight Adjustments - Electronic Arts (EA) saw a weight increase of 2.16%, bringing its total to 5.0%, while Unity Software (U) increased by 1.32% to a 2.5% stake, reflecting renewed confidence in gaming industry architects [3] - AppLovin (APP) and Sea Ltd (SE) were both allocated 5.0%, emphasizing the importance of mobile and monetization platforms in the gaming model [4] Group 3: Trimming of Megacap Holdings - The rebalance involved trimming positions in top-performing holdings like Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META), both reduced to a capped weight of 10.0%, and Roblox (RBLX) trimmed to 2.5% [5] - The adjustments reflect a normalization phase after significant gains in AI-driven and platform-centric companies, with Nexon being removed from the index [6] Group 4: Industry Trends - The March rebalance indicates a strategic rotation within the gaming ETF landscape, reallocating gains from megacap tech leaders towards a more diversified mix of gaming publishers, development platforms, and mobile-first companies [7] - The shift towards local listings highlights the increasing significance of global market structures in index construction [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 894 points or 3.54%, ending at 24,382 points, with a total market turnover of 368.68 billion [3] - The decline was influenced by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, leading to a significant drop in the Hong Kong stock market, which fell below the 25,000 mark [4] - The decline in the market was part of a broader trend, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a cumulative drop of 1,642 points or 6.31% over three consecutive days [4] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Hang Seng Bank raised its economic growth forecast for Hong Kong from 2.5% to 3.1% due to increased local and external demand, which is expected to support overall economic performance [8] - The bank noted that the recovery in consumer demand reflects strong performance in asset markets, particularly in the stock and property sectors [8] Group 3: Company News - Country Garden expects a profit of between 1 billion to 2.2 billion RMB for the year ending December 2023, primarily due to non-cash gains from debt restructuring [12] - WuXi AppTec reported a 38% increase in profit to 1.48 billion RMB for the year ending December 2023, with revenue rising by 46.69% to 5.944 billion RMB [13] - Henderson Land Development reported a 38% drop in basic profit, with shareholder profit at 5.653 billion RMB, attributed to reduced gains from land sales compared to the previous year [14] - Lao Poo Gold announced a significant profit increase of 2.3 times to 4.868 billion RMB, with revenue growing by 2.21 times to 27.303 billion RMB [15]

Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions, has led to increased risks in global energy supply and market volatility, resulting in a dual logic of "risk aversion" and "stagflation trading" in capital markets [5][7] - Brent crude oil prices surged to $108.65 per barrel, an increase of 8.15% from the previous week and 53.37% since the onset of the conflict [5][7] - Major global stock indices have faced downward pressure, with the U.S. dollar strengthening and gold prices declining by 10.49% [8] Global Capital Market Overview A-shares and Hong Kong Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3957.05, down 3.38% for the week, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74% to 25277.32 [15][21] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%, closing at 13866.20 [15] Overseas Market Review - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.11% to 45577.47, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.90% and 2.07%, respectively [23] - European indices such as the DAX and CAC40 saw declines of 4.55% and 3.11% [24] Global Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.39%, reflecting market concerns over inflation driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [27] Major Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, closing at 159.25, while the dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 6.89 [29] Major Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased significantly, while gold prices fell to $4491.67 per ounce, down 10.49% from the previous week [30] Important Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for high-level financial market openness, aiming to enhance investment convenience and cross-border regulatory cooperation [31] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is working on improving the stability of the capital market, focusing on long-term capital inflows and enhancing the quality of listed companies [32] - A new liquidity support mechanism for non-bank financial institutions is being explored to prevent systemic financial risks [33] - Hong Kong's regulatory body has tightened controls on investment banking practices, limiting the number of active projects for sponsors to enhance project quality [37] - South Korea announced a ban on the spin-off of subsidiaries by listed companies to protect shareholder interests and improve market valuation [38]