2025 年 1 月 19 日 公司研究 《漫威争锋》用户&流水再超预期，《燕云十六声》口碑回暖 ——网易-S（9999.HK）游戏产品线更新点评 要点 《漫威争锋》等精品新游戏上线表现超预期，产品周期上行有望催化股价走 强。1）《漫威争锋》用户&销售数据上线后持续走高，占据多平台热销榜， 海外玩家反馈热烈。1 月 15 日中午 12 时该游戏 Steam 同时在线人数达 45 万人，第 1 赛季峰值在线人数超 64 万；Steam 畅销榜超过《PUBG》、 《使命召唤》、《三角洲行动》等热门同类型游戏。游戏上线后多次居多国 steam 每周热销榜前 5，列于 EPIC、XBox、PS 等平台热门游戏榜单中。据 GameLook 估计，24M12 上线以来《漫威争锋》首月 steam 平台收入或可 达 4 亿人民币，全球首月总流水有望达 10 亿人民币，漫威 IP 仍有大量英雄 角色待推出且《漫威争锋》尚有 PVE 等玩法持续提供体验更新，该游戏有机 会成为网易旗下又一款大流水体量长青游戏。尽管考虑漫威 IP、Steam 等平 台、虚幻引擎的分成，《漫威争锋》预计为网易在 25 年提供较高体量利润 增量。游戏 ...

网易-S（9999.HK） 2025-01-07 星期二 | 目标价： | 163 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现价： | 137.5 | 港元 | | 预计升幅: | 20.2% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-01-06 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 137.5 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3,210 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 4,415 | | 净资产（亿港元） | 1,504 | | 总资产（亿港元） | 2,050 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 175.87/115.42 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 44.51 | 数据来源： Wind 、国元证券经纪 ( 香港 ) 整理 主要股东 丁磊 45.0% 相关报告 网易-S（9999.HK）-首发报告-20200828 网易-S（9999.HK）-更新报告-20200909、 20210226 研究部 姓名：李承儒 SFC：BLN914 电话：0755-21519182 | Email:licr@gyzq.com.hk | | --- | 买入 新游表现亮眼，或迎来底部反转 ...

请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 3 本报告仅供开源证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下简称"客户"）使用。本公司不 会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告是发送给开源证券客户的，属于商业秘密材料，只有开源证券客户才 能参考或使用，如接收人并非开源证券客户，请及时退回并删除。 备注：评级标准为以报告日后的 6~12 个月内，证券相对于市场基准指数的涨跌幅表现，其中 A 股基准指数为沪 深 300 指数、港股基准指数为恒生指数、新三板基准指数为三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针 对做市转让标的）、美股基准指数为标普 500 或纳斯达克综合指数。我们在此提醒您，不同证券研究机构采用不同 的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系，表示投资的相对比重建议；投资者买入或者卖出证券的决 定取决于个人的实际情况，比如当前的持仓结构以及其他需要考虑的因素。投资者应阅读整篇报告，以获取比较 完整的观点与信息，不应仅仅依靠投资评级来推断结论。 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 3 / 3 f 源证券 《无限大》获批版号，关注国内外新产品周期表现 投资评级：买入（维持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase-S (9999 HK) with a target price of HKD 180 0 [1][2] Core Views - NetEase's product cycle has bottomed out with key new games such as *Marvel Rivals* and *Yanyun Sixteen Sounds* set to launch in December 2024 and *Infinity* expected in 2025 [1] - The company's game pipeline is robust with a focus on international IPs and innovative gameplay which could drive future growth [1][18] - Despite short-term revenue pressure due to high base effects in Q3 2024 NetEase's毛利率 exceeded expectations at 62 9% [1] Product Line Summary Key New Games - *Marvel Rivals* a 6v6 hero tactical shooter based on the Marvel IP is set to launch on December 6 2024 with strong pre-registration data indicating potential for significant overseas player acquisition and long-term monetization [1][18] - *Yanyun Sixteen Sounds* an open-world martial arts game is expected to launch on PC by the end of December 2024 with mobile optimization ongoing The game has undergone significant tuning to address earlier concerns and could exceed market expectations [1][25] - *Infinity* an innovative open-world二次元 game is set to begin testing in December 2024 with unique art and gameplay mechanics that could expand NetEase's presence in the二次元 genre [1][31] Classic Games - Flagship games like *Fantasy Westward Journey* and *Justice* showed some year-over-year pressure in Q3 2024 but are expected to stabilize quarter-over-quarter *Fantasy Westward Journey*手游 continues to attract younger users with lighter gameplay [1][39] - *Justice*手游 saw a decline in Q3 2024 due to high base effects but its high user stickiness and回流率 are expected to support its lifecycle [1][51] Other Notable Games - *Eggy Party* saw a decline in third-party rankings partly due to the shift to官网付费 but is expected to maintain its lead over competitors like *DreamStar* [1][52][54] Financial Performance - NetEase's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 26 21 billion down 3 9% YoY below Bloomberg consensus due to high base effects from games like *Justice* [1][61] - Game and related value-added services revenue declined 4 2% YoY to RMB 20 86 billion while毛利率 improved to 62 9% exceeding expectations [1][62] - Adjusted net profit attributable to母公司 was RMB 7 5 billion down 13 3% YoY [1][62] Valuation and Forecast - The report下调s NetEase's adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 31 29 billion RMB 33 47 billion and RMB 35 51 billion respectively reflecting the impact of high base effects in Q3 2024 [1][88] - The SOTP valuation assigns an 18x PE to the online游戏业务 for 2025 with target price下调 to HKD 180 0 [1][88]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 11 月 25 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 133.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6887.05 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 180.50/116.00 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 4,289.61 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,210.78 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0822 | 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -31% 19% 69% 11/2712/2701/2702/2703/2704/2705/2706/2707/2708/2709/2710/27 HSCEI 网易-S 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch. ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of $108.00 USD / HK$168.05, implying a 26.05% / 24.39% upside potential for the US and HK markets respectively [2] Core Views - Blizzard games' return drives PC gaming revenue growth, with new product cycle expected in 2025 [2] - Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 26.21 billion, down 3.9% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 26.59 billion [2] - GAAP net profit of RMB 6.54 billion, down 16.6% YoY, while Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 7.50 billion, down 13.3% YoY [2] - Mobile gaming revenue under pressure due to lack of new titles, while PC gaming revenue grows 29.0% YoY [2] - Youdao achieves record operating profit in Q3, driven by smart hardware and advertising business growth [2] - Cloud Music enters Hong Kong Stock Connect, with Q3 revenue of RMB 2.0 billion, up 1.3% YoY [2] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 total revenue: RMB 26.21 billion, down 3.9% YoY [2] - Gaming and value-added services revenue: RMB 20.86 billion, down 4.2% YoY [2] - Mobile gaming revenue: RMB 14.3 billion, down 9.7% YoY [2] - PC gaming revenue: RMB 4.55 billion, up 29.0% YoY [2] - Youdao revenue: RMB 1.57 billion, up 2.2% YoY [2] - Cloud Music revenue: RMB 2.0 billion, up 1.3% YoY [2] Profitability - Operating profit margin: 27.3%, down 40bps YoY [2] - GAAP net profit: RMB 6.54 billion, down 16.6% YoY [2] - Non-GAAP net profit: RMB 7.50 billion, down 13.3% YoY [2] - Youdao operating profit: RMB 110 million, up 186% YoY [2] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR: 10.5% [2] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit CAGR: 8.5% [2] - 2025 PC gaming revenue expected to decline 12% to RMB 21.6 billion [2] - 2025 mobile gaming revenue expected to grow 5.4% to RMB 60.0 billion [2] Business Segments Gaming - Blizzard games' return drives PC gaming growth, with World of Warcraft and Hearthstone contributing to revenue increase [2] - New titles expected in 2025, including Marvel Rivals and Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng [2] - Pipeline includes Code: Infinity, Marvel Rampage, and Destiny: Rise [2] Youdao - Smart hardware revenue grows 25.2% YoY to RMB 320 million, driven by X7Pro dictionary pen sales [2] - Online marketing revenue grows 45.6% YoY to RMB 490 million, supported by AI optimization [2] Cloud Music - DAU/MAU ratio remains above 30%, with 24.4% paying user ratio [2] - ARPU reaches RMB 6.2 per month, with 730,000 independent musicians on the platform [2] Valuation - Target price of $108.00 USD / HK$168.05, based on 14.9x 2025 PE [2] - Gaming business valued at 1.2x PEG, with 12x PE for Non-GAAP net profit [2] - Youdao and Cloud Music valued based on NetEase's shareholding, with 5% discount applied to group valuation [2]

(NTES.O)/网易 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 季报点评|软件与服务 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发传媒&海外】网易(NTES.O)/ 网易-S(09999.HK) 移动游戏运营稳健，暴雪回归推动端游增长 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司披露 24Q3 业绩：24Q3 营业收入 262.1 亿元，YoY/QoQ-4%/+3%， Q3 毛利率同减 0.09pct 至 62.9%；销售费用 38.05 亿元，环比增加 8.66%，同比增加 6.67%，销售费用率为 14.52%；管理费用 11.00 亿 元，管理费用率为4.20%；研发费用44.24亿元，研发费用率为16.88%。 24Q3 GAAP 归母净利润 65.38 亿元，Non-GAAP 归母净利润 74.99 亿元，Non-GAAP 归母净利率为 28.61%。 ⚫ 暴雪回归推动端游增长，手游下滑主要受同期高基数影响。24Q3 游戏 及相关增值服务收入 208.64 亿元，同减 4.2%，其中在线游戏收入为 201.96 亿元，同减 1.04%，手游收入占比 70.8%，为 1 ...

暴雪游戏恢复有望驱动 Q4 游戏收入修复 ——网易（9999.HK）24Q3 点评 核心观点 ⚫ 24Q3 营收 262 亿（yoy-3.9%,qoq+2.8%)，同比增长主要系手游净收入的增加。 Q3 毛利率 62.9%（yoy+0.7pp,qoq-0.1pp)，同比提升主要由云音乐毛利率增长带 来。销售费率 14.52%（yoy+1.4pp，qoq+0.8pp）；管理费率 4.2%（yoy-1.3pp， qoq-0.1pp）；研发费率 16.9%（yoy+0.9pp，qoq-0.6pp）。GAAP 归母净利润 65.4 亿（yoy-16.6%，qoq-3.3%），Non-GAAP 归母净利润 75.0 亿（yoy-13.3%， qoq-4.1%）。 ⚫ 24Q3 游戏及相关增值服务总收入 208.6 亿（yoy-4.2%,qoq+4.0%）， Q3 扣除有 道外合同负债 147 亿（与上期差值+21 亿）。毛利率 68.8%（yoy-0.2pp,qoq1.2pp），其毛利下滑主要系移动游戏下滑。其中手游收入 143.0 亿（yoy-9.7%， qoq-2.9%），端游收入 59.0 亿（yoy+29.0% ...

暴雪游戏恢复有望驱动 Q4 游戏收入修复 ——网易（9999.HK）24Q3 点评 核心观点 ⚫ 24Q3 营收 262 亿（yoy-3.9%,qoq+2.8%)，同比增长主要系手游净收入的增加。 Q3 毛利率 62.9%（yoy+0.7pp,qoq-0.1pp)，同比提升主要由云音乐毛利率增长带 来。销售费率 14.52%（yoy+1.4pp，qoq+0.8pp）；管理费率 4.2%（yoy-1.3pp， qoq-0.1pp）；研发费率 16.9%（yoy+0.9pp，qoq-0.6pp）。GAAP 归母净利润 65.4 亿（yoy-16.6%，qoq-3.3%），Non-GAAP 归母净利润 75.0 亿（yoy-13.3%， qoq-4.1%）。 ⚫ 24Q3 游戏及相关增值服务总收入 208.6 亿（yoy-4.2%,qoq+4.0%）， Q3 扣除有 道外合同负债 147 亿（与上期差值+21 亿）。毛利率 68.8%（yoy-0.2pp,qoq1.2pp），其毛利下滑主要系移动游戏下滑。其中手游收入 143.0 亿（yoy-9.7%， qoq-2.9%），端游收入 59.0 亿（yoy+29.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for NetEase-S (09999 HK) [2][5][28] Core Views - NetEase's PC gaming revenue showed strong growth, while mobile gaming revenue declined due to a high base effect [3][19] - The company's gaming business is stabilizing, with key focus on the upcoming game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" [3][21] - NetEase's old games like "Fantasy Westward Journey" remain stable, while "Identity V" and "Naraka: Bladepoint" continue to perform well [3][21] - The company's game development capabilities and pipeline are strong, with multiple new games set to launch [5][21] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, NetEase reported revenue of RMB 26 2 billion, down 4% YoY, with Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 7 5 billion, down 13% YoY [2][10] - The company's gaming revenue was RMB 20 2 billion, down 1% YoY, with PC gaming revenue up 29% YoY to RMB 5 9 billion [3][19] - NetEase's deferred revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB 15 5 billion [3][20] - Youdao's revenue increased 2% YoY to RMB 1 6 billion, with advertising revenue up 46% YoY [4][22] - NetEase Cloud Music's revenue grew 1% YoY to RMB 2 billion, with gross margin improving 5 6 percentage points to 32 8% [4][26] Business Segments Gaming - PC gaming revenue growth was driven by the return of "World of Warcraft" and the strong performance of "Naraka: Bladepoint" [3][19] - "World of Warcraft" saw a 50% increase in daily active users compared to pre-shutdown levels, while "Hearthstone" saw a 150% increase in active users [3][21] - New games like "Marvel Rivals" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are set to launch in December 2024 [3][21] Youdao - Youdao's learning services revenue declined 19% YoY to RMB 770 million due to business restructuring and optimization [4][22] - Smart device revenue grew 25% YoY to RMB 320 million, driven by new product launches [4][22] - Advertising revenue increased 46% YoY to RMB 490 million, supported by the application of AI technology [4][22] NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music's gross margin improved significantly, reaching 32 8% in Q3 2024, up 5 6 percentage points YoY [4][26] - The improvement was attributed to increased music subscription revenue and better cost control [4][26] Valuation and Forecast - The report revised down NetEase's profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with adjusted net profit estimates of RMB 32 billion, RMB 36 1 billion, and RMB 38 billion, respectively [5][28] - The target price was adjusted to HKD 157-181, representing a 22% reduction [5][28] - The valuation is based on a 13-15x PE ratio for 2025 [5][28]