Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 117.98, up from the previous target of HKD 93.5 [2][7][11]. Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated resilient operational performance in Q3 2024, with a steady revenue growth despite short-term disruptions caused by weather and macroeconomic factors. The Anta brand achieved a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while the Fila brand experienced a low single-digit decline [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong operational resilience of Anta as a market leader, maintaining its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 at RMB 4.27, 4.88, and 5.51 respectively. The target price is based on a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.0x for 2025, reflecting the company's significant advantages in market share, revenue scale, and brand strength [2][11]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance - Anta brand retail sales showed a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while Fila brand retail sales declined by a low single-digit percentage. Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, saw retail sales growth of 45-50% [2][4]. - The operational disruptions in Q3 were attributed to external factors such as typhoons and high temperatures, but Anta's performance remained industry-leading [2][3]. Brand Analysis - Anta's main brand is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with online sales projected to exceed 20% year-on-year growth for the full year 2024. The company is effectively expanding its market reach through new store formats targeting specific customer segments [3][4]. - Fila's performance has been impacted by external market conditions, but its operational health remains manageable, with retail discounts stable and inventory turnover ratios healthy [4][5]. Other Brands - Other brands under Anta are experiencing rapid growth, particularly in outdoor apparel, with Descente and Kolon showing significant year-on-year increases in sales [5][9]. - The report anticipates that the retail environment will remain challenging in the fourth quarter, but effective cost control and product-channel strategies will support overall performance and profitability [5][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are set at RMB 69.97 billion for 2024, with expected year-on-year growth of 12.21%. Net profit is projected to reach RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 29.42% [6][9][10]. - The report outlines a consistent growth trend in EPS, with estimates of RMB 4.27 for 2024, RMB 4.88 for 2025, and RMB 5.51 for 2026, indicating strong profitability [10][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Smoore International (06969) with a target price of 12.54 HKD [1] Core Views - The company reported steady revenue growth in Q3 2024, achieving a revenue of 32.86 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.5% [1] - The company's proprietary brand business is experiencing rapid growth, while the closed-system product business is gradually recovering [1] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased R&D and management expenses, with net profit for Q3 2024 at 3.79 billion HKD, down 22.5% year-on-year but up 10.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 83.23 billion HKD, a 4.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.62 billion HKD, down 11.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 32.86 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.5% [1] Business Segments - The revenue from proprietary brand business reached 11.16 billion HKD, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 71.9% [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growth of both proprietary open and closed-system products due to increasing regulatory pressures in the European electronic vaporization market [1] R&D and Future Outlook - The company is increasing its R&D investments, focusing on non-combustible products and medical vaporization products, which are anticipated to become new revenue and profit growth points [1] - The company has completed the development and production of several devices for asthma and COPD medications, with research results gaining industry recognition [1]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 波司登（ 03998 ） | | 证券研究报告 \n2024 年 10 月 11 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 战略投资 Moo ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of 48.0 HKD per share [6] Core Views - Ascentage Pharma is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on developing first-in-class and best-in-class drugs, particularly in oncology, with 9 small molecule drugs in clinical development [3] - The company's core products, Olverembatinib (BCR-ABL TKI) and Lisaftoclax (BCL-2), are expected to achieve risk-adjusted global sales of 17.67 billion RMB by 2033 [4] - Ascentage Pharma has made significant progress in global expansion, with key products advancing in global registration clinical trials in both China and the US [3] Product Pipeline and Market Potential - Olverembatinib, the first and only third-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor approved in China, is expected to generate risk-adjusted global sales of 10.85 billion RMB by 2033, with 9.48 billion RMB from overseas markets [4] - Lisaftoclax, a potential second global BCL-2 inhibitor, is projected to achieve risk-adjusted global sales of 6.82 billion RMB by 2033, with 6.25 billion RMB from overseas markets [4] - The company's pipeline includes multiple first-in-class potential targets, with ongoing exploration in hematologic malignancies, solid tumors, and non-oncology indications [4] Financial and Strategic Developments - Ascentage Pharma achieved its first semi-annual profit in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 820 million RMB, a 477% YoY increase, driven by licensing income [10] - The company secured a significant partnership with Takeda, receiving a $100 million option fee and $75 million equity investment, with potential milestone payments totaling $1.2 billion [10] - Ascentage Pharma has filed for a US IPO in 2024, aiming to further expand its financing channels [10] Clinical Progress and Regulatory Milestones - Olverembatinib's global Phase III registration clinical trial for CML patients resistant to two or more TKIs has been approved by the FDA, with NDA submission expected by 2026 [17] - Lisaftoclax's Phase II registration clinical trial for R/R CLL/SLL in China has been completed, with NDA submission expected in 2024 [12] - The company is conducting over 40 Phase I/II clinical trials globally, with 8 registration trials, including 2 approved by the FDA [11] Market and Competitive Landscape - The global BCR-ABL inhibitor market exceeds $6 billion, with Olverembatinib showing potential as a best-in-class product due to its efficacy and safety profile [17] - Lisaftoclax is positioned as a potential best-in-class BCL-2 inhibitor, with advantages in efficacy, safety, and dosing convenience compared to existing therapies [40] - Ascentage Pharma's focus on first-in-class targets and its global clinical strategy position it well to capture significant market share in both China and international markets [13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on MINISO with a "Buy" rating, citing its strong growth potential driven by global expansion and IP-driven retail strategy [2][4] Core Views - MINISO is positioned as a global lifestyle retailer with a focus on IP-driven products, leveraging its two core brands, MINISO and TOP TOY, to drive growth [1][9] - The company has achieved a leading market share in the global and Chinese self-owned brand retail markets, with MINISO holding 6.7% and 11.4% market share respectively, while TOP TOY ranks 7th in the domestic trendy toy market with a 1.1% share [1][9] - MINISO's global store count reached 7,063 by mid-2024, with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, particularly through flexible overseas expansion strategies [1][43] Brand and Product Strategy - MINISO operates as a multi-category lifestyle brand, offering 11 product categories including home goods, small electronics, and personal care, with an average of 530 new SKUs launched monthly and a core SKU portfolio of 9,700 items [1][10] - TOP TOY, launched in 2020, focuses on trendy toys, including blind boxes, building blocks, and figurines, and has quickly captured a 1.1% market share in China's trendy toy market [1][10] - The company has established partnerships with over 80 IP licensors, including Disney and Marvel, to enhance its product offerings and brand appeal [1][10] Financial Performance and Projections - MINISO's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 16.57 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.16 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 11% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2.88 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.72 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 12% [2][3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 14x in 2024 to 11x in 2026, indicating potential valuation upside [2][3] Global Expansion and Market Strategy - MINISO's overseas revenue reached RMB 5.52 billion in FY24, a 44.45% YoY increase, driven by the expansion of 2,753 overseas stores, including 343 directly operated, 338 partner-operated, and 2,072 agent-operated stores [1][43] - The company employs a flexible market entry strategy, using agents to adapt to local markets, reducing regulatory risks and operational costs [1][43] - Asia and the Americas are key markets, contributing 36% and 50% of overseas GMV respectively, with strong growth potential in emerging markets like India and Indonesia [45][22] Competitive Landscape - In the global self-owned brand retail market, MINISO holds a 6.7% market share, ranking first, while in China, it leads with an 11.4% share [1][28] - The trendy toy market is highly fragmented, with the top 5 players holding a 26.4% market share, and TOP TOY ranking 7th with a 1.1% share [1][29] - MINISO differentiates itself through its IP-driven product strategy and efficient supply chain, which supports its competitive pricing and rapid product turnover [31][33] Future Growth Drivers - MINISO plans to continue its global store expansion, with a focus on increasing store efficiency and profitability, particularly in overseas markets [2][43] - The company is transitioning from a low-price retail model to an IP-driven retail strategy, aiming to enhance brand value and customer loyalty [37][39] - With a strong supply chain and global design capabilities, MINISO is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for trendy and IP-based products [31][33]

2024 年 10 月 10 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 已加入港股通，经营杠杆持续释放 ——云音乐（9899.HK）公司动态研究 投资要点: 最近一年走势 2024H1 业绩超市场预期，盈利能力显著改善。 2024H1 公司收入 40.70 亿元（yoy+4.1%），营业成本 26.45 亿元 （yoy-10.14%），经调整净利润 8.81 亿元（yoy+165.4%），主要 系在线音乐服务中的会员订阅服务收入的大幅增长及审慎经营社交 娱乐业务。2024H1 公司毛利率 35.0%，同比提升 10.3pct，主要系 内容服务成本下降且将内容授权费进行一次性调整。费用来看， 2024H1公司销售费用/研发费用率9.1%/9.7%，同比下降0.4/1.6pct， 整体改善较好。 相对恒生指数表现 2024/10/10 表现 1M 3M 12M 付费用户增加，在线音乐业务业绩持续向好。 ...

公司近一年市场表现 2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究/公司快报 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 安踏品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，折扣与库存保持健康水平。2024Q3，安踏 品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，流水增速较 2 季度有所减弱，预计零售流水达成率弱 于公司内部预期。分渠道看，预计线上渠道表现好于线下，2024Q3，安踏品牌线上渠道 流水预计同比增长 20%以上。分品类看，安踏大货、安踏儿童零售流水同比增长均为中 单位数。库存方面，截至 2024Q3 末，安踏品牌库渠道库存周转 4 个月以上，渠道库存 处于健康水平。零售折扣方面，安踏品牌整体零售折扣改善，其中线上零售折扣改善， 线下零售折扣持平。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | 市场数据： 2024 年 10 月 | 10 日 | | 收盘价（港元）： | 100.10 | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | 107.50/60.200 | | 流通股/总股本（亿股）： | 28.29/28.29 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | 2,832.06 | | ...

公司近一年市场表现 2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究/公司快报 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 安踏品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，折扣与库存保持健康水平。2024Q3，安踏 品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，流水增速较 2 季度有所减弱，预计零售流水达成率弱 于公司内部预期。分渠道看，预计线上渠道表现好于线下，2024Q3，安踏品牌线上渠道 流水预计同比增长 20%以上。分品类看，安踏大货、安踏儿童零售流水同比增长均为中 单位数。库存方面，截至 2024Q3 末，安踏品牌库渠道库存周转 4 个月以上，渠道库存 处于健康水平。零售折扣方面，安踏品牌整体零售折扣改善，其中线上零售折扣改善， 线下零售折扣持平。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | 市场数据： 2024 年 10 月 | 10 日 | | 收盘价（港元）： | 100.10 | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | 107.50/60.200 | | 流通股/总股本（亿股）： | 28.29/28.29 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | 2,832.06 | | ...

2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究 Q3 安踏及 FILA 流水走弱，Q4 冬装旺季期待多品牌销售提振 ——安踏体育（2020.HK）2024 年三季度经营情况点评 要点 24Q3 安踏和 FILA 品牌流水走弱，库存和折扣仍保持健康 安踏体育公告 2024 年三季度经营情况。分品牌来看，2024 年第三季度安踏品牌 零售流水同比增长中单位数、FILA 同比下滑低单位数、其他品牌同比增长 45~50%。三季度终端零售压力加大，安踏及 FILA 品牌零售流水低于预期，与二 季度相比，安踏增速环比略有放缓、FILA 转为下滑，而其他品牌增速有所加快。 安踏品牌：24Q3 安踏品牌库销比小于 5 个月、环比维持；零售折扣线下同比基 本持平，线上折扣同比改善。分产品及渠道来看，安踏大货、儿童流水同比均增 长中单位数；安踏线上延续高增长，流水同比增长超 20%。 FILA 品牌：FILA 品牌 24Q3 受大环境影响零售流水转为下滑，其零售折扣及库存 仍处于健康水平，零售折扣未有加深，库销比接近 5 个月。分产品及渠道来看， FILA 大货零售流水同比持平，潮牌和儿童流水压力相对较大。 其他品牌：24Q3 其他 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a dual leader in the instant noodles and soft drink industries, with a continuously optimizing revenue structure [3] - The company has a solid channel foundation and scale advantage, enabling it to take the initiative in product upgrades and pricing [3] - The company is expected to lead a new round of price increases in the industry, improving the competitive landscape and enhancing profitability [4] - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with shareholder returns becoming more prominent [4] Industry Overview Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink industry is driven by high-quality and health-conscious trends, with the bottled water segment leading in market share [33] - The market size of the soft drink industry reached 6435 88 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 6 68% from 2009 to 2023 [33] - The bottled water segment has seen its market share increase from 21 61% in 2009 to 35 21% in 2023 [33] - The sugar-free tea and carbonated drink segments are growing rapidly, with sugar-free carbonated drinks accounting for 23 04% of the carbonated drink market in 2023 [3] Instant Noodle Industry - The instant noodle industry is entering a phase of stable volume and rising prices, with a CAGR of 8 18% from 2017 to 2022 [58] - The average price of instant noodles increased at a CAGR of 5 87% from 2020 to 2022, driven by product upgrades and consumer demand for higher quality [59] Company Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 80 418 billion yuan, with instant noodles and beverages contributing 35 80% and 63 34% respectively [3] - The CAGR for instant noodles and beverage revenues from 2017 to 2023 were 4 10% and 6 58% respectively [3] - The company's gross profit margin for instant noodles and beverages in 2023 were 27 00% and 32 10% respectively [15] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has a strong product portfolio, with container noodles and high-priced bagged noodles accounting for 46 91% and 41 16% of instant noodle sales in 2023 [13] - The company has implemented a channel reform strategy, reducing the size of regions and increasing the number of small distributors to improve product and channel responsiveness [3] - As of the end of 2023, the company had 348 business offices, 303 warehouses, 76,875 distributors, and 217,087 direct retailers [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's upgrade towards healthier and higher-quality products, such as sugar-free tea, sugar-free carbonated drinks, and premium bottled water [3] - The company's leading position in the industry and its ability to replicate past successes are expected to help it capture a significant share of new market trends [3] - The company's EPS for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be 0 64 and 0 73 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 18 and 16 times [4]