[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [华Table_润Title] 啤酒(00291.HK/00291.HK) 公[Ta司ble_评Inve级st] 买入 当前价格 37.20港元 业绩符合预期，期待啤白新发展 合理价值 40.0港元 前次评级 买入 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： 报告日期 2024-03-19 ⚫ 全年如期收官，业绩符合预期。公司2023年实现营收同比+10.4%至 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现] 389.3亿元，归母净利润同比+18.6%至51.5亿元，符合预期。 ⚫ 量价符合预期，高端化持续推进。2023 年公司啤酒业务营收同比 10% +4.5%至368.7亿元，其中销量/ASP分别同比+0.5%/4.0%至1115万 -3% 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 千升/3306.0 元/千升，次高及以上产品销量同比+18.9%至 250 万千 -15% 升，占比提升3.5pct至18.9%，其中喜力销量同比增长近60%。23H2 -27% 公司销量/ASP分别同比-4.6%/+2.8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" with a target price of 48 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of 37.95 HKD [3][9]. Core Insights - In 2023, China Resources Beer reported a revenue of 38.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit of 5.1 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The sales volume reached 11.15 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with premium and above products showing significant growth, particularly Heineken, which saw a growth rate exceeding 60% [1]. - The company has successfully entered the liquor market through the acquisition of a 55.2% stake in Jinsha Liquor, generating 2.06 billion RMB in revenue from this segment in 2023 [1]. - A special dividend of 0.3 RMB per share was declared, with an expected total dividend payout of 0.936 RMB per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of 59% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue: 38.9 billion RMB, 10% growth - 2023 net profit: 5.1 billion RMB, 18% growth - Gross margin: 41.4%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year - Net margin: 13.4%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2024 EPS: 1.91 HKD - 2025 EPS: 2.10 HKD - 2026 EPS: 2.23 HKD [1][8]. - Valuation Metrics: - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is projected at 19x for 2024, while China Resources Beer is assigned a P/E of 25x, leading to a target price of 48 HKD [9][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end products, with plans to enhance its presence in the premium market segment, particularly targeting products priced above 10 RMB [1]. - The integration of the liquor business is expected to provide additional growth opportunities, with a focus on regions with high penetration rates for sauce liquor [1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include China Resources Group with 31.1% and Heineken Group with 20.8% [5]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a relative return of 17.47% over the past month and 12.47% over the past three months, although it has declined by 23.45% over the past year [7].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 华润啤酒：啤酒决胜高端，白酒积极探索 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年03月20日 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司发布2023年业绩，实现营业收入389.32亿元，同比+10.4%， [T华ab润le_啤St酒ock(0A2n9dR1a.HnkK]) 股东应占溢利51.53亿元，同比+18.6%。 投资评级 买入 点评： 上次评级 买入  啤酒吨酒收入稳提升，喜力高增至60万吨。2023H2华润啤酒实现营 业收入139.71亿元，同比-2.0%；其中销量458万千升，同比-4.6%， [T马ab铮le_食Au品th饮or料] 首席分析师 我们认为主要同期基数较高所致。从产品结构来看，在消费环境较为疲 执业编号：S1500520110001 软的情况下，公司高端化稳步推进，2023H2千升酒收入同比+2.8%， 邮 箱：mazheng@cindasc.com 次高端及以上销量同比+10.0%至105.6万吨。全年来看，受益于喜力 双位数增长至60万吨、雪花纯生和老雪等产品双位数增长， ...

[Ta华ble润_St啤ock酒Nam（eR 0p 0tT 2yp 9e 1] ） 公司研究/港股点评 啤酒稳步高端化，白酒进入增长期 ——华润啤酒 23 年报点评 投资评级：买入（维持） 主要观点： [Table_Rank] 报告日期： 2024-03-19 [⚫T ab公le_司S发um布m2a0ry2]3 年业绩： ➢ 23H2：收入150.6亿（+6%），归母5.0亿（-7%）。 [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba港se元D）at a] 37.95 ➢ 23年：收入389.3亿（+10%），归母51.5亿（+19%）。 近12个月最高/最低（港元） 63.92/28.15 ➢ 收入、利润基本符合市场预期。 总股本（百万股） 3,244 ➢ 此外特别派息0.3元/股，为庆祝30周年，23年派息0.936元/股， 流通股本（百万股） 3,244 分红比例从40%提至59%。 流通股比例（%） 100.00 总市值（亿港元） 1,231 ⚫ 啤酒业务：稳步推进高端化 流通市值（亿港元） 1,231 ➢ 23年收入368.7亿，同比+4.5%，销量1115万吨，同比+0.5%，吨 [公Ta司ble价_C格ha与rt] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 47.0, representing a potential upside of 23.8% from the current price of HKD 38.0 [8][23]. Core Insights - China Resources Beer is positioned as one of the strongest players in the high-end beer market, supported by a robust product matrix and channel operation capabilities. The management's deep understanding of the liquor market enhances confidence in future growth, particularly in the white liquor segment [7][18]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue structure's high-end transformation, with significant growth in premium products like Heineken and Pure Draft, which saw sales growth of nearly 60% and high double-digit growth, respectively, in 2023 [7][18]. - The beer business is projected to experience strong margin expansion due to the rapid growth of high-end products, effective pricing management, and a decrease in production costs [7][18]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 41,575 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [12][20]. - Core net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 6,259 million in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 19.0% [12][20]. - The report predicts a gross margin of 43.5% for 2024, up from 41.4% in 2023, indicating a continued focus on high-margin products [12][20]. Business Segments - The beer segment is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with a target of 270-290 million tons in sales for premium and above products in 2024 [7][18]. - The white liquor segment, while still in its early stages, is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's long-term growth through a diversified product portfolio and strict pricing controls [7][18]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, applying a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple for the beer business and a 12x P/E multiple for the white liquor business, leading to a target price of HKD 47.0 [18][19].

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 食品饮料 | 公司研究 外部承压不改结构升级趋势 白酒期待整合收效 2024年3月18日 华润啤酒 (0291:HK) 买入 事件：公司发布 2023 年业绩，根据公司公告，2023 年公司实现营业额 389.32 亿元，同比增长 10%，归属于公司股东利润为51.5亿元，同比增长19%。23H2公司实现营业额150.6亿元，同 比增长6%，归属于公司股东利润为5亿元，同比下降7%。公司公告2023年派息率59%，其中 维持 包括23年中期分红每股0.287元，末期分红每股0.349元，特别分红每股0.3元人民币。公司业 绩符合预期。 市场数据：2024年3月18日 投资评级与估值：考虑到啤酒结构升级进入中后程，且终端需求复苏需要时间，行业竞争存在加剧 收盘价（港币） 37.95 风险，下调 2024~2025 年盈利预测，新增 2026年盈利预测，预测 2024-2026年公司归母净利 恒生中国企业指数 5,848.15 润为63.35/74.74/86.59亿，（前次202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) with a target price of HKD 53.0, compared to the current price of HKD 37.95 [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 38.93 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Core EBIT reached HKD 7.1 billion, up 30%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.15 billion, an 18.6% increase. The core net profit was HKD 5.26 billion, reflecting a 16.3% growth [1]. - The report highlights the solid progress in premiumization and a notable special dividend, with a payout of HKD 0.3 per share, raising the total dividend for the year to HKD 0.936 per share, increasing the payout ratio from 41% in 2022 to 59% in 2023 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H2 2023, revenue increased by 5.7% to HKD 15.06 billion, while core EBIT surged by 152% to HKD 760 million. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7% to HKD 504 million, and core net profit fell by 25% to HKD 540 million [1]. - The beer business generated revenue of HKD 139.7 billion in H2 2023, a decline of 2%, with sales volume down 4.6% due to adverse weather and weak consumer spending. The average price per ton increased by 2.8% [1]. Business Segments - The report notes that the premium segment, particularly Heineken and Pure Draft, saw significant growth, with sales volumes in the above 10 HKD price range increasing by nearly 60% to 600,000 tons [1]. - The white liquor segment showed positive results with revenue of approximately HKD 2.07 billion, where the flagship product accounted for 70% of revenue, growing over 20% [1]. Future Outlook - For 2024, the company aims for steady growth in the beer segment, focusing on quality upgrades in mid-range products and further premiumization. The white liquor business is expected to accelerate revenue growth as new products gain traction [1]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to HKD 1.91, HKD 2.22, and HKD 2.51 respectively, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18, 16, and 14 times [1].

业绩简评 3月 18 日，公司公告，23 年营业收入389.32 亿元，同比+10.4%； 归母净利51.53 亿元，同比+18.6%，业绩符合预期。 经营分析 啤酒业务：喜力高增，ASP态势良好，吨成本H2 承压。 23 年啤酒量+0.5%，ASP 同比+4.0%；营业收入同比+4.5%。次高及 以上销量250 万吨（占比+3.5pct 至 22.4%），同比+19%（喜力+60% 至 60万吨）。预计全年纯生+16%突破 80万吨、老雪翻倍、勇闯和 SX 中低个位数增长。H2 销量同比-4.6%、吨价同比+2.8%、收入同 比-2.0%；次高及以上销量同比+10%（占比+3.1pct），主要系 Q3 天 气、消费力疲弱拖累，Q4 量价保持增长。 23 年吨成本同比+1.1%，毛利率同比+1.7pct 至 40.2%，H2 吨成本 同比+4%，系销量下滑导致规模效应减弱，叠加结构优化导致成本 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 自然上行。23 年销售费率同比+0.1pct,行政及其他费率同比- 70.00 1,200 1.4pct(剔除一次性费用后同比-1.2pct)，系紧日子政策成效显 63.00 1,000 ...

2024年3月19日 公司研究 喜力增速亮眼，白酒业务进入“发展”第二阶段 ——华润啤酒（0291.HK）2023 年年报点评 要点 买入（维持） 事件：华润啤酒发布2023年度业绩报告。23年实现营业收入389.32亿元，同比 当前价：37.95港元 +10.4%；归母净利润51.53亿元，同比+18.6%。其中，23H2实现收入150.61亿 元，同比+5.7%；归母净利润5.04亿元，同比-7%。 作者 23H2消费疲软影响次高端及以上产品销量增长，喜力维持亮眼增速。 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 量：2023年公司实现啤酒销量1115.1万千升，yoy+0.5%。价：2023年啤酒销售 021-52523689 单价3306元/千升，yoy+4.0%，吨价上涨主要系公司产品结构持续升级。分档次 chenyt@ebscn.com 看：2023年公司次高端及以上产品销量250万千升，yoy+18.9%，23年下半年受 餐饮需求疲软等影响，次高端及以上产品销量增速环比有所放缓（23H1次高端及 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 以上产品销量yoy+26 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 华润啤酒（00291.HK） 2023 年报点评：业绩符合预期，啤白共成长 2024 年 03月 19日 提速 证券分析师 孙瑜 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 证券分析师 李昱哲 执业证书：S0600522090007 营业总收入（百万元） 35,263 38,932 41,614 44,024 45,878 liyzh@dwzq.com.cn 同比 5.62% 10.40% 6.89% 5.79% 4.21% 归母净利润（百万元） 4,344 5,153 6,143 7,167 8,182 股价走势 同比 -5.30% 18.62% 19.22% 16.65% 14.16% 华润啤酒 恒生指数 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 1.34 1.59 1.89 2.21 2.52 8% P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 25.73 21.69 18.19 15.59 13.66 2% -4% -10% [关Ta键 ...