中国国际航空股份有限公司 2025年6月主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 6 月，中国国际航空股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）及所属 子公司（以下简称"本集团"）合并旅客周转量（按收入客公里计）同比上升。 客运运力投入（按可用座位公里计）同比上升 2.5%，旅客周转量同比上升 3.9%。 其中，国内客运运力投入同比下降 0.2%，旅客周转量同比上升 1.4%；国际客运 运力投入同比上升 9.9%，旅客周转量同比上升 11.1%；地区客运运力投入同比 下降 2.2%，旅客周转量同比上升 1.5%。平均客座率 81.1%，同比上升 1.1 个百 分点。其中，国内航线同比上升 1.3 个百分点，国际航线同比上升 0.8 个百分点， 地区航线同比上升 2.8 个百分点。 货运方面，货运运力投入（按可用货运吨公里计）同比上升 3.6%，货邮周 转量（按收入货运吨公里计）同比上升 6.8%。货运载运率为 45.7%，同比上升 1.4 个百分点。 证券代码：601111 股票简称：中国国航 公 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，三大航预告2025Q2同比大幅减亏，符合该行业绩前瞻。该行预计暑运表现可 期，2025年将实现扭亏。关注"反内卷"政策深化对于航空业短中长三重受益。旺季博弈风险逐步释放， 建议布局航空长逻辑，维持航空增持评级。该行认为中国航空业具长逻辑，"十四五"票价已市场化，且 供给已进入低增时代，需求稳健增长将驱动供需继续向好，将迎盈利中枢上升与持续。旺季博弈风险逐 步释放，建议布局长逻辑。 1)2025年6月26日中国民航局召开专题会议部署综合整治"内卷式"竞争工作。据智通财经，局方强调"内 卷"本质是大量资源投入低效同质化的竞争，部分市场主体为追求短期效益，争夺市场份额，违背经济 运行规律，过度低价，扎堆式投放运力，形成低质量同质化过度竞争;下一步局方将尽快制定完善航空 运输价格行为规则，防止以低于成本价开展恶性竞争。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2025Q2业绩快报：三大航同比大幅减亏，符合该行业绩前瞻 2)观察预售，7月下半月至8月国内预售票价保持同比上升，反映航司预售策略仍保持积极，未来收舱将 是关键。 3)暑运加班严格受限，而亲子游旺盛，供需预期乐观。同时考虑2024年暑运低基数，该行预计20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major airlines in China reported significant losses for the first half of 2025, with noticeable performance differentiation among them. While Air China and China Eastern Airlines managed to reduce their losses, China Southern Airlines faced an increase in losses due to various challenges, including slow recovery of international routes and competitive disadvantages [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Air China is expected to report a net loss of 17 billion to 22 billion yuan, a reduction of 5.82 billion to 10.82 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. - China Eastern Airlines anticipates a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan, reducing losses by 11.68 billion to 15.68 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. - China Southern Airlines, however, is projected to incur a net loss of 11.68 billion to 15.68 billion yuan, an increase in losses by 1.1 billion to 5.28 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic passenger market is showing signs of steady recovery, but factors such as declining ticket prices and competition from high-speed rail continue to pressure airline revenues [1][6]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in the first half of 2025 was 740 yuan, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with high-speed rail increasingly attracting high-end travelers away from airlines, while discounted airfares are drawing ordinary travelers to aviation [7][9]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - The three major airlines are focusing on expanding their routes in 2025, with Air China emphasizing the importance of both domestic and international route growth for profitability [5][10]. - Air China and China Eastern Airlines reported increases in passenger capacity and turnover, with Air China's capacity up by 3.5% and passenger turnover up by 5.5% in the first five months of the year [5][10]. - China Southern Airlines is also working to enhance its business travel market and international routes to mitigate its geographical disadvantages [10][13]. Group 4: Challenges and Outlook - China Southern Airlines faces significant operational challenges due to its geographical position, which has hindered the recovery of its international routes and increased competition in the domestic market [10][12]. - The airline's performance is further impacted by structural changes in passenger demographics and external factors such as international uncertainties and supply chain disruptions [10][12]. - As the critical summer travel season begins, all three airlines must navigate the dual challenges of revenue management and capacity allocation to improve their financial standings [1][13].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The shipping rates for oil tankers in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have slightly increased, while the container shipping rates for the US routes have rebounded and the European routes remain stable [3][13] - Hefei is building the first national drone-sharing airport network, and Pudong Airport has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in inbound and outbound passengers in the first half of the year [3][16] - Jitu Express reported a 65.9% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, marking the highest growth rate since its listing [3][24] Industry Dynamics - **Shipping and Ports**: The VLCC market has returned to a supply-demand balance, with overall vessel supply remaining ample. The shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at WS49.24, up 2.48% from July 3 [3][14] - **Container Shipping**: The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have shown slight fluctuations, with rates to the US West and East coasts increasing by 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [3][15] - **Aviation**: The first half of 2025 saw Pudong Airport handle 18.26 million passengers, a 23.44% increase year-on-year, with new international routes contributing to this growth [3][18] - **Logistics**: Jitu Express's package volume in Southeast Asia reached 1.69 billion packages in Q2, with a 65.9% increase year-on-year, while the overall global package volume grew by 23.5% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies such as Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Guangdong Expressway, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [4] - Monitor e-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Look into aviation industry investment opportunities, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [5]

Group 1: Company Analysis - 长光华芯 - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 94.28 million, and a significant reduction in net loss to 7.5 million [3][4] - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 28 million, 99 million, and 208 million respectively, with a target price set at 70.86 yuan based on a PE of 60.05x for 2027 [3][4] - The company has successfully launched three key products in the optical communication sector, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the context of increasing demand from AI data centers [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Transportation - The central government's emphasis on "anti-involution" is expected to promote deeper industry reforms, benefiting sectors such as aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations [5][6] - The aviation sector is anticipated to improve revenue management strategies, which will help mitigate excessive price competition and enhance profitability [7] - The express delivery industry is likely to see a more favorable competitive environment due to regulatory measures against "involution," which may lead to the concentration of market share among leading firms [8] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Renewable Energy - The solar energy sector is experiencing positive momentum due to new policies aimed at increasing renewable energy consumption, with silicon material prices on the rise [31][32] - The wind energy sector is expected to maintain strong installation growth, supported by long project cycles and increasing demand for offshore wind projects [35][37] - The digital transformation of the energy sector is accelerating, driven by government initiatives to enhance the integration of information technology and energy industries [38]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of anti-involution policies on the transportation industry, specifically focusing on the aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain sectors [1][2][24]. Key Points on Aviation Industry - The aviation industry faces challenges such as inefficient resource allocation, severe homogenization of competition, and excessive low-price competition, leading to high passenger load but low profitability [3][4]. - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has initiated measures to regulate pricing behaviors and prevent predatory pricing, aiming to enhance overall market order and profitability [4][10]. - The anti-involution policy is expected to reduce extreme low pricing in the short term, improve airline revenue management in the medium term, and promote rational capacity planning for sustainable industry development in the long term [1][11][24]. - The aviation industry is projected to see a recovery in profitability over the next two years, with market dynamics improving as ticket prices become more market-driven and fleet growth slows [5][12]. - By the second half of 2024, the aviation industry is expected to achieve record-high passenger load factors, although excessive price competition may hinder the speed of recovery [6][8]. - Airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines are recommended as investment targets due to their strong positions in the market [13][24]. Key Points on Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector has experienced a decline in revenue per shipment due to scale effects and healthy competition, but there is a need to strictly control malicious price wars [14][15]. - The anti-involution policy aims to stabilize the market and improve service quality by regulating competition [2][20]. - The industry has seen a shift towards natural concentration and the rise of leading companies, despite challenges posed by price wars [14][19]. - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need for enhanced regulation to prevent below-cost competition, ensuring the stability of the express delivery network [16][20]. Key Points on Bulk Supply Chain Operations - The bulk supply chain sector is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, with recent volatility in commodity prices affecting profitability [21][22]. - The anti-involution policy is expected to stabilize commodity prices, which could improve the profitability of supply chain companies [21][22]. - Traditional bulk traders are transitioning to providing financial services, reducing reliance on price differentials, which helps mitigate risks associated with commodity price fluctuations [22]. - The market concentration in the bulk supply chain industry is low, with leading companies expected to gain market share as the industry recovers [23][24]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies like Jianfa Co., Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen Guomao, and Zhejiang Zhongtuo, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the anti-involution policies [23][24]. Additional Insights - The anti-involution policies are seen as a long-term strategy to ensure healthy competition across the transportation industry, promoting sustainable growth and profitability [2][12][24]. - The focus on improving revenue management and reducing excessive competition is crucial for the future stability and growth of the aviation and express delivery sectors [10][11][20].

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has issued opinions to strengthen financial trial work, emphasizing the need to punish financial crimes such as market manipulation and insider trading, and to promote healthy development in the financial market [1] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 14 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory bodies, has released the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" to standardize various green financial products [6] - The PBOC's deputy governor stated that structural monetary policy tools will focus on supporting technological innovation and boosting consumption [7] - The first half of 2025 financial reports show that China National Salt Industry Corporation's net profit dropped by 88.04% year-on-year [9] Group 3 - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of the year, indicating a turnaround from losses [11] - China Eastern Airlines anticipates a net loss of 12 to 16 billion yuan for the first half of the year [11] - Meta is planning to invest several billion dollars in artificial intelligence, with significant projects like Prometheus and Hyperion set to launch in the coming years [14]

Macro News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict punishment for financial crimes such as market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering to promote healthy financial market development [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with 8 trillion yuan for 3-month operations and 6 trillion yuan for 6-month operations [3][6] - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 12.92 trillion yuan, and M2 growth of 8.3% year-on-year [4][6] Company News - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [12] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of 30 billion to 35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [13] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 24 billion to 28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, although it represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [13] - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [17] - Wen Tai Technology expects a net profit increase of 178% to 317% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [18] - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a return to profitability [21] Investment Opportunities - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to technological advancements and supportive policies, with 2025 projected as a year of mass production [29] - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to see significant growth, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and larger-scale shipments by 2030, driven by increasing demand for high-performance batteries [30] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with a record order of 124 million yuan for humanoid robot manufacturing services, indicating strong market potential [31] - The successful production of the first barrel of uranium from China's largest natural uranium production project is expected to enhance the country's energy resource security and influence in uranium resource development [32]

Group 1 - The central bank reported that the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with RMB loans increasing by 12.92 trillion yuan [2] - The M2 balance grew by 8.3% year-on-year by the end of June, indicating a stable monetary environment [2] - The General Administration of Customs reported that China's total goods trade import and export value reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a historical high, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports by 2.3% [2] Group 2 - The Central Committee emphasized the need to strictly punish financial crimes such as market manipulation and insider trading, and to improve rules for handling disputes in emerging financial fields [3] - The State Council announced a routine inspection of 16 provinces and municipalities, indicating ongoing regulatory oversight [4] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed hope for stable and sustainable development of China-US trade relations [4] Group 3 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 3519.65 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% [6] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 0.26%, with significant inflows from southbound funds [7] - A-share companies are expected to report strong earnings, with some companies projecting over 3000% year-on-year profit increases [8] Group 4 - The coal industry is urged to recognize the severe imbalance in supply and demand and to adhere to long-term contracts for electricity coal [10] - The number of newly registered electric vehicles reached 5.622 million in the first half of the year, a 27.86% increase year-on-year [10] - The rapid growth of foreign-controlled wealth management companies indicates a significant shift in the financial landscape [10] Group 5 - The approval of a virtual asset trading license for a Chinese bank in Hong Kong marks a significant development in the financial sector [12] - The U.S. regulatory bodies provided guidance on how banks can offer cryptocurrency custody services, reflecting the growing importance of digital assets [12] - The market is reacting to potential new sanctions against Russia, which is affecting oil prices [19]

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific Haikou expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [1] - The main reason for the profit increase is the merger with Haitong Securities, which has led to significant growth in wealth management and trading revenues [1] - Shenyuan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit increase of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [6][7] Group 2 - Southern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.338 billion to 1.756 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in passenger structure and international uncertainties [2] - China Eastern Airlines projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by intense domestic market competition [3] - Air China anticipates a net loss of 1.7 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, affected by market supply imbalances and international uncertainties [4] Group 3 - HNA Group expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 45 million to 65 million yuan, attributed to improved market conditions and operational adjustments [5] - CICC forecasts a net profit increase of 55%-78% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 55%-60% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.43 billion to 4.573 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 84.3%-120.5% [10] - Poly Developments anticipates a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.735 billion yuan [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit increase of 51%-68% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [13] Group 5 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, but with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [14] - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by ongoing industry challenges [15] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from the previous year's loss [16] Group 6 - Jianghuai Automobile expects a net loss of approximately 680 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition in the international market [21] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to ongoing transformation challenges [22] - ST Huatuo expects a net profit increase of 107.2%-159% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan [23] Group 7 - New Hope anticipates a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [25] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit increase of 32%-67% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan [27] - Pengding Holdings expects a net profit increase of 52.79%-60.62% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.198 billion to 1.26 billion yuan [29] Group 8 - Hengtong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of approximately 251 million yuan [30] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 50%-56% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.4 billion to 1.45 billion yuan [31] - Founder Securities expects a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.299 billion to 2.43 billion yuan [33]