- The report discusses the overall performance of the four major stock index futures, with the CSI 500 futures showing the largest increase of 3.83% and the SSE 50 futures showing the smallest increase of 1.00%[3] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH futures showing the largest decrease of -24.59% and the IC futures showing the smallest decrease of -5.41%[3] - The basis levels for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are provided, with the IF and IM discounts deepening, the IC discount narrowing, and the IH discount turning into a premium[3] - The cross-period spread rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are given, with the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts' cross-period spread rates being at the 45.80%, 49.70%, 60.20%, and 40.00% percentiles since 2019, respectively[3] - The report mentions that there are no opportunities for positive or negative arbitrage in the IF main contract based on the closing prices[4] - The dividend forecast indicates that the dividends for the main contracts of the four major index futures have minimal impact on the September main contracts' points[4] - The market sentiment has improved, with the IH basis turning from a discount to a premium and the total open interest of the four major index futures increasing, with the IC showing the most significant increase[4][13] - The report includes a detailed explanation of the calculation methods for index futures arbitrage, including the formulas for positive and negative arbitrage returns[46] - The dividend estimation method is explained, which involves predicting the dividend points based on historical dividend patterns and the current EPS and payout ratio[47][48]

29日上午，伦敦金现货价格强势上行，涨幅超过1%，盘中一度触及3807.85美元/盎司新高，成功突破3800美元关口，实现连续第六周上涨。贵金属市场全 线飘红。 伦敦金现 < W SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC 3758.780 总量 3806.840 昨年 20 3756.152 现手 +48.060 +1.28% 开盘 最高价 3807.850 持 仓 0 4 qua 最低价 3755.662 增 仓 R 量 0 五日 分时 開家 周K 叠加 设均线 MA5:3762.563↑ 10:3723.556↑ 20:3665.607↑ 3858.181 -- 3807-85 3537.894 3267.937 3217.606 2025-07-22 08-08 08-26 09-11 成交量 总手:0 总额:0 VMA5:0 VMA10:0 VMA20:0 伦敦银现货同样表现亮眼，盘中价格一度涨超2%至47.174美元/盎司，创历史新高。铂金和钯金价格也取得显著涨幅。 银河证券认为，随着美联储重启降息，货币政策逐步宽松的趋势或已确立，后续在美国劳动力市场下滑的影响下，美联储或将持续降息，从而推动全球黄金 ETF加 ...

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3769.85, with a change of 39.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 45.00, with a change of 0.06 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1505.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1234.00, with a change of 8.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 65.72, with a change of 0.74 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10271.50, with a change of -51.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver: no latest inventory data and change provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 1158.27, with a change of 1.41 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1005.72, with a change of 8.87 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15361.84, with a change of -28.23 [2] - SGE Silver: no latest inventory data provided, and its deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] Other Market Data - US Dollar Index latest is 98.19, with a change of -0.27 [11] - EUR/USD latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [11] - GBP/USD latest is 1.34, with a change of 0.01 [11] - USD/JPY latest is 149.50, with a change of -0.30 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.02 [11]

| Millio | > 國投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得21.8万人为近两月以来新低,第二季度GDP大幅上修至增长3.8%创两 年新高。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度,对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚POE通胀数据以及美国政府停 摆的解决进展。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修至增长3.8%，创两年新高，前值为3.3%;美国至9月20日当周初请失业金人数 录得21.8万人，为2025年7月19日当周以来新低，前值由23.1万人修正为23.2万人。 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星 ...

Market Overview - On September 25, A-shares opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.01%, closing at 3853.3 points. In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw gains of 0.67% and 1.58%, closing at 13445.9 points and 3235.76 points respectively [1] Sector Performance - The AI sector continued to show strength, with active trading in holographic technology, gaming, and superconducting concepts. The energy storage sector also experienced fluctuations, with companies like Sungrow Power Supply and CATL reaching new historical highs [1] - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, shipping ports, and antibacterial fabrics faced significant declines [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1477 A-shares closed in the green, with 52 stocks hitting the daily limit up. Meanwhile, 3877 stocks closed in the red, with 9 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached approximately 10012.11 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange recorded about 13698.85 billion yuan, leading to a combined trading volume of around 2.37 trillion yuan [1]

| Mile | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月24日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据教据和经济前景灵活调 整。地缘博弈局面难解,美国总统特朗普称如果俄罗斯不愿达成协议,已准备好加征关税。后续关注美国政 府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎,贵金属偏强趋势未改但短期波动可能加剧。 ★美联储主席鲍威尔:政策利率仍然略带限制性,但使美联储能够更好地应对潜在的经济进展;预计关税将 是一次性传导效应；决策"绝不会基于政治因素"。"美联储传声简"指出，鲍威尔比番言论表明其认为利 率仍偏紧缩，或为进一步降息打开空间。美联储古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息50个基点。最终美联储利率可 能会稳定 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18% at 3821 points, briefly dipping below 3800 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21%. The North Star 50 Index saw a significant drop of 2.63% [1] - Total trading volume reached 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4200 stocks declining across the market [1] Sector Performance - The tourism and hotel sector faced heavy losses, with stocks like Tibet Tourism, Yunnan Tourism, and Huatian Hotel hitting the daily limit down [1] - The real estate sector also declined, with stocks such as Electronic City experiencing limit down [1] - The CRO sector weakened, led by Sunshine Nuohua and Medici, while the small metals sector saw widespread declines, with Yunnan Zhiye and Guiyan Platinum dropping over 5% [1] - Other sectors that performed poorly included recombinant proteins, 3D glass, digital currency, and software development [1] Gainers - The port and shipping sector saw gains, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping both hitting the daily limit up [1] - Bank stocks were active, with Nanjing Bank leading the gains [1] - The superconducting concept stocks rose, with Woer Nuclear Materials hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other sectors that showed positive performance included wheel motors, SMIC concept stocks, and precious metals [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3821.83, down 6.74 points (-0.18%) [1] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13119.82, down 38.16 points (-0.29%) [1] - ChiNext Index: 3114.55, up 6.67 points (+0.21%) [1] - North Star 50 Index: 1547.4, down 41.74 points (-2.63%) [1] - Other indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500 also showed declines [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase on September 22, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58 points, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97 points, up 0.67%. The STAR 50 index rose by 3.38%, and the ChiNext index increased by 0.55%. The total trading volume of the A-shares was 21,425 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous day [1][10][11] - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, 11 sectors saw an increase, with electronics, computers, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains. Conversely, consumer services, food and beverage, and construction sectors experienced significant declines [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices continued to set closing records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.14%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.44%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.7%. Apple shares rose over 4%, and Nvidia increased nearly 4%, leading the Dow [2] Key Economic Data - As of June 2025, China's banking sector total assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally. The stock and bond market sizes are second in the world, and foreign exchange reserves have maintained the top position for 20 consecutive years [11][13] - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged in September 2025, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [20] Industry Developments - The National Energy Administration and other departments issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of energy equipment, aiming for significant advancements in the energy key equipment industry chain by 2030, focusing on autonomy, high-end, intelligent, and green development [18] - The financial sector has seen a reduction in financing platform debt risks, with the number of financing platforms decreasing by 60% compared to March 2023, and financial debt scale dropping by over 50% [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of over $3760 per ounce, driven by ongoing commodity inflation trends in the U.S. and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, while service sector inflation shows signs of easing [1] - The labor market is experiencing a downward trend, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, as indicated during the August global central bank meeting, suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The combination of rising tariffs contributing to inflation and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - The recent surge in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]

Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices close higher on September 22, with a total trading volume of 2.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - More than 2,100 stocks closed higher, with 73 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The precious metals sector led the gains with an increase of over 6%, particularly driven by Hunan Silver's limit up [1] Historical Highs - A total of 102 stocks reached historical closing highs today, excluding newly listed stocks from the past year [2] - The electronics, machinery equipment, and automotive sectors had a significant concentration of stocks reaching new highs, with 38, 19, and 10 stocks respectively [2] Stock Performance - Stocks that reached historical highs averaged a 7.27% increase, with notable limit-up performances from Changying Precision, Hongfuhan, and Henghe Precision [3] - Eight stocks showed an upside potential exceeding 20%, with the highest being Gaoweida, which has a projected target price of 51.5 yuan per share, indicating an upside of 98.76% [4] Institutional Ratings - The non-ferrous metals sector was the most favored by institutions, with four stocks including Shenghe Resources and Tianqi Lithium receiving buy ratings [5] - A total of 31 buy ratings were issued today, with 11 stocks having future target prices compared to their latest closing prices [4][5] Institutional Buying and Selling - In the龙虎榜, 12 stocks saw net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, with Jucheng Co. leading at 359 million yuan [6] - Conversely, Lixun Precision, a leader in the "fruit chain," faced the largest net sell-off at 281 million yuan [7] Important Announcements - Longi Green Energy reported a stable yield of over 97% for its HPBC 2.0 battery production line [8] - Hong Kong-listed Zhongjing Electronics plans to raise no more than 700 million yuan for a smart PCB production base project in Thailand [12]