邮箱： XUBYUN372@pingan.com.cn 2025年4月28日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 受益于"国补政策" ，25Q1中国智能手机 市场出货量正增长 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师： 徐碧云 S1060523070002（证券投资咨询） 行业动态 "国补"叠加春节旺季，推动中国手机市场开年延续同比增长趋势 2020年1月10日 根据IDC报告，2025年第一季度，中国智能手机市场出货量在"国补"政策叠加春节销售旺季的共同推动下，同比增长3.3%，达到7160万 部，延续了过去五个季度的增长趋势，Android市场中更多价位段的产品可以进入到"国补"行列中，因此市场表现相对更好，同比增长 5.3%；iOS市场第一季度同比下降9.0%。 核心摘要 风险提示： 1）供应链风险上升。2）市场需求可能不及预期。3）国产替代不及预期。 行业要闻及简评： 1）根据IDC报告，2025Q1，中国智能手机市场出货量在"国补"政策叠加春节销售旺季的共同推动下 ，同比增长3.3%，达到7160万部，延续了过去五个季度的增长趋势；2）根据IDC报告，2025Q1中国折叠屏手 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is experiencing a significant decline in stock value despite its explosive growth in revenue and earnings, raising questions about whether it is an undervalued growth stock or a risky investment in a volatile market [5][11]. Group 1: Company Growth Metrics - From 2014 to 2024, Nvidia's stock surged 33,430%, with a revenue CAGR of 39% and an EPS CAGR of 58% from fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025 [1]. - In fiscal 2025, Nvidia's revenue rose 114%, adjusted gross margin expanded to 75.5%, and adjusted EPS increased by 130% [6]. - Data center revenue surged 142% to $115 billion, accounting for 88% of total revenue [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's GPUs are essential for AI tasks, making it a key player in the booming generative AI market, with major clients including OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google [4]. - The company controls approximately 98% of the data center GPU market, maintaining a competitive edge over smaller rivals [12]. Group 3: Challenges and Outlook - Nvidia's stock has declined about 23% this year due to macroeconomic factors, including tariffs and trade tensions [5]. - Year-over-year growth rates are slowing, and gross margins are slipping, raising concerns about future performance [6][9]. - For fiscal 2026, Nvidia expects a 44% year-over-year revenue increase, with analysts projecting 54% revenue growth and 48% adjusted EPS growth for the full year [8].

Core Insights - Nvidia's stock has declined over 30% since the beginning of 2025, resulting in a loss of over $1 trillion in market capitalization, despite strong growth in its end markets, particularly in data center revenue linked to AI [1] Revenue Exposure - Up to 30% of Nvidia's revenues are at risk due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, with potential impacts from new export licensing requirements for AI chips intended for China [2][3] - Approximately 14% of Nvidia's sales in the last quarter originated from China, but this figure may underrepresent the actual contribution due to indirect sales through Singapore [3][4] Market Dynamics - Singapore accounts for 18% of Nvidia's sales, but less than 2% of these sales are directly exported there, indicating that many shipments likely end up in China, potentially raising China's contribution to Nvidia's revenue to around 30% [4] - Chinese firms have placed over $16 billion in orders for Nvidia's H20 chips in the first 90 days of 2025, all of which are now at risk due to new licensing rules [7] Competitive Landscape - Local competitors in China, such as Huawei, are investing heavily to capture Nvidia's market share, which could lead to significant long-term challenges for Nvidia even if current regulations are relaxed [7][8] - The valuation of Nvidia's shares has decreased from 30 times sales at the start of 2025 to 18.4 times trailing sales and 11.7 times forward sales, suggesting that some risks may already be priced in [8]

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA 2.10%) tumbled after the company revealed that it will incur a $5.5 billion charge in the first quarter related to its H2O graphics processing units (GPUs) due to new export restrictions on the sale of its chips to countries like China. Nvidia's stock has had a tough start to 2025, with its share price down about 25% as of this writing. A dumbed-down version of its H100 and H200 GPUs, Nvidia's H20 chip was designed specifically to sell into the Chinese market to meet prior export cont ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - Apple (AAPL) shares have declined 21.3% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's decline of 17.1% [1] - Following the April 2 Liberation Day announcement, Apple shares fell 11.2% until the 90-day pause was announced, after which they recovered 3.4% [1] Group 2: Market and Supply Chain Impact - China is a crucial market for Apple, with manufacturing primarily concentrated there, and higher tariffs negatively impact Apple's supply chain [2] - The Trump administration's decision to exempt electronic devices from reciprocal tariffs provided some relief to Apple [2] Group 3: Sales and Competition - Apple has faced sluggish demand for the iPhone in China, with Greater China sales decreasing 11.1% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 due to increased competition from Huawei and Xiaomi [3] - iPhone sales decreased 0.8% year over year to $69.14 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, although better sales were noted in regions where Apple Intelligence was available [10] Group 4: Services Growth - Apple's Services portfolio has emerged as a strong growth driver, with revenues growing 14% year over year in the fiscal first quarter [6] - Apple now has over 1 billion paid subscribers across its Services portfolio, more than double the number from four years ago [7] Group 5: Apple TV+ Performance - Apple TV+ has been struggling with a lack of content compared to competitors like Netflix, Amazon, and Disney, leading to profitability issues with losses exceeding $1 billion [8] - Apple TV+'s market share in the U.S. increased from 7% in Q4 2024 to 8% in Q1 2025, but it still trails behind Amazon Prime Video and Netflix [9] Group 6: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings has declined 1.1% to $7.18 per share, indicating 6.37% growth from fiscal 2024 [12] - AAPL stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 27.85X, compared to the sector's 23.92X, suggesting a stretched valuation [13] Group 7: Technical Indicators - AAPL shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [16] Group 8: Conclusion - Despite the growth in the Services business, the underwhelming performance of Apple Intelligence is seen as a headwind for the product business, leading to a belief that near-term growth prospects do not justify a premium valuation [19]

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...

Though the stock market was strong through 2024, its best period came after Donald Trump was confirmed as the new President-Elect of the United States in early November. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) – already an undisputed star for investors – benefited particularly from the rally, as it accelerated a rise that enabled it to gain $2.1 trillion within the 12 months and increase from $1.223 trillion at the end of 2023 to $3.355 trillion by the end of 2024.Though the initial weeks of 2025 appeared just as strong, and ...

New numbers are out for China's smartphone market — and they're a troubling sign for Apple. Overall smartphone shipments in China grew 3.3% in the first quarter, according to a Thursday research report from the International Data Corporation, but iPhone shipments notably fell by 9% year over year.Apple was the only major smartphone maker to lose market share during the quarter, according to IDC. Local rivals dominated the Chinese market, a key region for Apple that CEO Tim Cook has called "the most compet ...

US stocks opened in the red on Wednesday morning after the Commerce Department unveiled new restrictions on popular chip exports to China – and Nvidia warned it could cost the chipmaker billions of dollars.The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 194 points, or 0.5%, shortly after the regular trading session began at 9:30 a.m ET. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and 1.7%, respectively. 3 US stocks fell Wednesday morning after the Commerce Department unveiled new restrictions on popular chip exports to ...