证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 降准降息推进稳楼市，"好房子"时代头部品牌受益 建材行业定期报告 中游制造/建材 本周（2025/5/5-2025/5/10）建材动态：水泥需求有所减弱，价格回落延续； 浮法玻璃市场价格下滑，出货普遍较弱；玻纤中，无碱粗纱市场价格调后暂 稳，电子纱市场稳价为主。周内降息释放积极信号，"好房子"建设要求利 好消费建材头部品牌。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 96 | 1.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 769.4 | 0.9 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 704.0 | 0.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 8.5 -6.1 0.6 相对表现 4.2 0.2 -4.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 建材 沪深300 相关报告 1、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预期加强，地产企稳助力估值修复》 2025-04-22 2、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.30%, while the CSI All-Industry Construction Products Index reported 3860.07 points [1] - The CSI All-Industry Construction Products Index has increased by 8.22% in the past month, 2.95% in the past three months, and 1.17% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Overview - The CSI All-Industry Construction Products Index reflects the overall performance of different industry companies within the CSI sample, categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weights in the CSI All-Industry Construction Products Index are: Beixin Building Materials (16.44%), Dongfang Yuhong (13.12%), Weixing New Materials (6.74%), Cangzhou Mingzhu (4.49%), Wanli Stone (3.97%), Zhongqi New Materials (3.13%), Jianlang Hardware (2.93%), Keshun Co. (2.86%), Dongpeng Holdings (2.63%), and Zhite New Materials (2.4%) [1] - The market share of the CSI All-Industry Construction Products Index holdings is 89.88% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 9.58% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and 0.54% from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] Group 3: Sample Adjustments - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with implementation on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI All-Industry Index [2] - Special events affecting a sample company's industry classification will lead to corresponding adjustments in the index sample [2]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3343.28 points, slightly down by 0.26%, with a total trading volume of 590.62 billion yuan [1] - 24 A-shares have surpassed their annual moving average, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Huaihe Energy (600575) has the highest deviation rate at 9.45%, with a daily increase of 10.03% and a turnover rate of 4.61% [2] - *ST Changyao (300391) follows with a deviation rate of 3.71%, increasing by 4.37% today [2] - Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (300740) shows a deviation rate of 3.58% with an 8.70% increase [2] Other Notable Stocks - *ST Chuangxing (600193) has a deviation rate of 3.47% and a daily increase of 4.94% [2] - Yahua Electronics (301337) has a deviation rate of 3.40% with a 5.06% increase [2] - Shaanxi Huada (301517) shows a 4.25% increase and a deviation rate of 3.38% [2] Market Overview - The overall A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with a total trading volume of 590.62 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 44.071 million yuan in 2024, a 113.05% increase compared to the previous year [6] - Operating cash flow increased by 64.52% year-on-year in 2024 [2] - The company has implemented measures to optimize its financial structure, including improved accounts receivable management and cost reduction strategies, resulting in a 0.9 percentage point increase in gross margin [2] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company is focusing on diversifying its channels, with the real estate procurement ratio currently below 15% [1] - Future growth will be driven by expanding non-real estate business, particularly in large infrastructure projects and overseas markets, especially in Southeast Asia [7] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and reduce costs to improve profitability [7] Group 3: Market Conditions - The decline in crude oil prices positively impacts the company's profitability by reducing the cost of key raw materials like asphalt [4] - The waterproofing industry is expected to see significant demand due to government policies promoting housing renovations and infrastructure projects, with a projected increase in waterproofing needs [9] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand in the maintenance market for older buildings [9] Group 4: Risk Management - The company has established systems to prevent the misuse of funds by major shareholders, including strict approval processes for related transactions [8] - Independent directors regularly review compliance with these systems to ensure shareholder interests are protected [8] - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with approximately 3.4 billion yuan in cash as of the end of 2024, indicating no funding pressure [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized proactive fiscal policies and the importance of infrastructure and stock chains, indicating a focus on urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [6][20]. - Cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass inventory remains stable, reflecting a mixed demand environment [7][40]. - There is a growing emphasis on domestic demand and investment opportunities in the African market [9][10]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices have decreased by 0.7% nationwide, with a slight decline in demand due to seasonal rainfall affecting certain regions [7][26]. - The average price of cement is 395.00 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.55 yuan/ton [27]. - The glass market is stable, with an average price of 75.07 yuan per weight box, down 17.90 yuan year-on-year [40]. Infrastructure and Stock Chains - The stock chain is expected to see demand growth and structural optimization, with a 35% increase in second-hand housing transactions in Q1 2025 [9]. - The infrastructure chain has higher short-term certainty, with an additional 0.5 trillion yuan in special bond quotas for 2025 aimed at construction and land acquisition [9]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubaobao for stock chains, while China Liansu, Huaxin Cement, and Conch Cement are highlighted for infrastructure chains [9][10]. - Keda Manufacturing is noted as a leading player in the African market, with expected earnings of 1.45 billion yuan in 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.49 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.955 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 192 million RMB, down 44.68% year-on-year but up 116.45% quarter-on-quarter. The overall project resumption after the Spring Festival has been slow, limiting short-cycle demand for the company's products, but the low base from last year and the gradual reduction of impairment exposure provide operational resilience [1][2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.73%, down 5.95 percentage points year-on-year but up 9.30 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The industry is experiencing ongoing price competition, which has pressured product prices. However, the cost side remains relatively stable, with the average price of waterproof material asphalt at 3,775 RMB per ton, down 1.7% year-on-year and up 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's accounts receivable net value was 8.371 billion RMB, down 22.4% year-on-year but up 14.0% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in accounts receivable is attributed to credit issued to distributors, indicating a tightening of credit policies. The operating net cash flow was -813 million RMB, an improvement of 1.076 billion RMB year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 92.9% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects EPS for 2025 to be 0.69 RMB, with projections of 1.03 RMB for 2026 and 1.24 RMB for 2027. The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 25.7 times, but due to slow implementation of new real estate policies and significant pressure on asset disposal, the company is assigned a PE of 21 times for 2025, leading to a target price of 14.49 RMB [5][6]. Market Conditions - The real estate market is showing marginal improvement, with new home transaction volumes in key cities increasing by 7.2% week-on-week but down 19.5% year-on-year. The second-hand housing market is performing better, with a year-to-date increase of 15.0%, which may support demand for the company's products [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Views - The company has actively adjusted its business structure to control risks, leading to a steady improvement in profitability and quality. Despite revenue pressure, the significant reduction in credit impairment losses has contributed to turning a profit [3][8][33] - The company reported a revenue of 6.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44 million yuan, compared to a loss of 338 million yuan in the previous year [8][33] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.3 yuan per share for 2024, with total dividends amounting to 422 million yuan [8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, a decrease of 23.2% [8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 21.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material prices and internal cost reduction efforts [2][3] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 320 million yuan in 2024, up 64.5% year-on-year [3][28] Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.18, 0.30, and 0.42 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.4, 15.4, and 11.1 [33][34] - The total revenue is expected to slightly increase to 6.86 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 0.5% [34] Cash Flow and Risk Management - The company has strengthened its cash collection and risk control measures, leading to a continuous recovery in cash flow. The accounts receivable and notes totaled 4.09 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a decrease of 70 million yuan year-on-year [3][28] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 64.6%, reflecting a manageable level of debt [3][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 48.40 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 424 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million RMB, up 77% year-on-year but down 29% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in container paint sales was a key factor for the lower-than-expected net profit, but the growth potential in wind power and marine coatings is promising [1][4] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and expects new projects to contribute to revenue starting in 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Container paint sales in Q1 were 19,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 52%. Revenue from container paints was 310 million RMB, also up 41% year-on-year but down 50% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Wind power paint sales saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67%, with Q1 sales reaching 3,600 tons and revenue of 114 million RMB, a 47% increase year-on-year [2] Profitability - The overall gross margin for Q1 improved to 23.8%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year and 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the increase in container paint prices [2] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 261 million, 310 million, and 382 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.42, 2.87, and 3.54 RMB [4][6] Future Outlook - The company has established a sales and R&D team in Europe and is entering the supply chains of major global companies, indicating a strong potential for market expansion [3] - New product developments, including a high-performance coating project expected to be completed by June 2025, are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue for 2024, with a 14% year-on-year decrease, while net profit showed a significant increase of 113% year-on-year, indicating a potential improvement in operational efficiency despite challenging market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.8 billion, a 14% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 44 million, reflecting a 113% increase year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.4 billion, down 6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 40 million, down 23% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross margin improved to approximately 21.8% for 2024, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to stable sales prices and reduced unit costs [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The waterproofing industry remains under significant pressure in 2024, with total production of waterproof materials in China declining by 17% year-on-year, and a cumulative decline of 38% compared to the historical peak in 2021 [2]. - The company's main business revenue decreased by 12%, with specific declines in waterproof membrane revenue (15%), waterproof coating revenue (6%), and engineering construction revenue (17%) [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a multi-brand distribution strategy targeting different market segments, establishing long-term partnerships with over 3,200 distributors [2]. - In 2024, the company began exploring overseas markets, contributing approximately 2% to total revenue [2]. - Some fundraising projects have been postponed, with the company extending the timeline for certain expansion projects to the end of 2028 due to declining terminal demand and production efficiency improvements [4]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company's operating cash flow has shown gradual improvement, with a cash collection ratio of 1.08 in the past three years, indicating better revenue structure [3]. - By the end of 2024, accounts receivable and notes amounted to 4.1 billion, slightly down from the end of 2023, while the net cash flow from operating activities was 320 million [3].

科顺股份 20250428 摘要 • 科顺股份 2024 年调整业务结构，主动放弃低毛利和长账期项目，地产和 市政基建收入下降，但海外、B 端、经销及工商项目收入占比提升，整体 毛利率和现金流改善，净利润扭亏为盈至 4,000 多万元，现金流增至 3 亿 多元。 • 2025 年一季度，科顺股份收入降幅收窄至 6%，C 端和海外业务分别增长 30%和 60%，毛利率达近两年较高水平 24.几，现金流大幅改善至负 3 亿 多元。公司计划民建保持 40%高增长，公建经销实现正增长，直销稳中略 增，市政基建严格风控。 • 科顺股份海外市场虽基数小，但增长迅速，2024 年增长 60%至 2.7 亿元。 董事长直接管理海外业务，加强人员配置、市场推广和产品投放。2025 年计划在东南亚设产能，与当地伙伴合资，预计海外市场增长接近 80%。 • 工程板块中，工商类项目毛利率最高，地产项目次之，市政项目毛利率最 低且账期长。2025 年一季度毛利率改善主要归因于收入和产品结构优化， 沥青降价预计二季度显现成本优势，沥青价格每下降 10%可提升毛利率约 2.2~2.3 个百分点。 Q&A 请介绍科顺股份 2024 年年报及 ...