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白糖市场周报:外盘宽幅震荡,影响国内波动反复-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, leading to a loose global supply expectation. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement, causing the raw sugar price to fluctuate widely at a short - term low. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the demand for cold drinks is in the peak season, and the double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not large due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, but the increase in the number of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The new sugar - pressing season's output is expected to remain at the highest level in the past four years. Overall, the low - level fluctuation of the outer market affects the domestic market to fluctuate repeatedly. Fundamentally, the import is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the customs import data in July. The supply in the new sugar - pressing season is expected to be stable with a slight increase. Although short - term double - festival stocking provides support, it will still face pressure in the future. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short. Future factors to watch include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. The international raw sugar price fluctuated widely at a low level, and the domestic market was affected by it. The import pressure was released, and the supply would increase temporarily in September. The demand was expected to increase, and the de - stocking process slowed down [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short [8]. - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.05%. As of August 5, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.90% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.22% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 23.85% month - on - month. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 29,055 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 17,104 [10][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.36 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. As of August 15, the price of Guangxi Liuzhou sugar was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Kunming sugar was 5,860 yuan per ton. As of August 13, 2025, the out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar was 5,786 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Thai sugar was 5,901 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the in - quota price was 4,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of August 13, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,324 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.84%; the out - of - quota profit was 90 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 164.71%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,236 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%; the out - quota profit was - 25 yuan per ton [13][26][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had ended, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons and a growth rate of 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the cumulative sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%; the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of white sugar this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [54]. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [58].
白糖市场周报:现货价格下跌,拖累白糖期价-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 10:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.
白糖市场周报:多空因素交织,白糖震荡运行-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 09:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 2.43%. Internationally, the rainy season has brought good production prospects for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil have cast a shadow of loose supply on the raw sugar market. However, the lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. On the demand side, the hot summer has led to increased demand for food and beverage industries, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, supporting the price. Overall, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate due to the combination of peak domestic demand and increased imports and expected global supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. International sugar market: The rainy season in Asia and strong production in Brazil lead to a supply - loose expectation, but lower ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand support prices. Domestic sugar market: The opening of the out - of - quota profit window releases import pressure, and the peak consumption season provides support. The overall market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.43%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.65% month - on - month to 198,761 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position increased by 0.86% month - on - month to 258,490 contracts. The non - commercial net position was - 59,729 contracts, a decrease of 14.65% month - on - month [8]. - The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was 3,472 contracts, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443 [21]. - **Spot Market**: - As of August 1, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,900 yuan/ton [25]. - As of July 29, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%; the in - quota price was 4,533 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,828 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%; the in - quota price was 4,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [28]. - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 199 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.44% from the previous week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.42% from the previous week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: - By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The total sugar production in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [38]. - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [42]. - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [46]. - **Demand Side**: - As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China were 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45% [50]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [55]. 3.4 Option Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not described in text [56]. 3.5 Sugar Futures - Stock Correlation Market - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in text [60].
白糖市场周报:内强外内格局凸显,关注我们获业务咨询-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Domestically, the price trend is different from that abroad. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the restocking demand of the food and beverage industry provide some support. Internationally, the good supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports suppress the raw sugar price, but Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in late June provide short - term support. Overall, the domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price, but the domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. In the later stage, both supply and demand are strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the supply is expected to be loose, but there is short - term support. Domestically, the import pressure will be released, but the demand provides support. The domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price and is stronger than the foreign market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on are consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 0.67% this week. As of July 9, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar remained unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar increased by 2.67% month - on - month. [8] - The international raw sugar spot price increased. As of July 4, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.72 cents per pound, a month - on - month increase of 4.57%. [11] - This week, the top 20 net positions in the white sugar futures were - 19,355 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 22,744. [17] - **Spot Market** - As of July 11, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,895 yuan per ton. [21] - As of July 8, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 4,457 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%; the estimated out - of - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 5,662 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated out - of - quota import processing price of Thai sugar (50% tariff) was 5,715 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the estimated in - quota import processing price of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. [23] - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,476 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 271 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.81%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,435 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 218 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20.44%. [28] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. [32] - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. [36] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. However, from January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were only 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1%. [40] - **Demand Side** - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. [44] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 9.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The cumulative output of soft drinks was 74.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.19%. [49] 3.4. Option and Stock Market - **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not given in the text. [50] - **Stock Market** - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not given in the text. [55]
白糖市场周报:外盘扰动,短期波动加剧-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 09:04
Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report - External Disturbances, Short - term Volatility Intensifies [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Internationally, the approaching monsoon season improved the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, the opening of the import window increased import pressure, while the summer consumption peak provided some support. Overall, the domestic sugar price was stronger than the external market due to rising demand. In the later period, both supply and demand will be strong, and price volatility will intensify. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the export of Brazilian and Indian sugar [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the monsoon season improved the supply outlook in Asia, and Brazilian shipping data showed an increase in waiting ships and sugar quantity. Domestically, import pressure increased, but summer consumption provided support. The domestic market was stronger than the external market, and later, price volatility will intensify [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract [5] - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, Brazilian and Indian sugar exports [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.92% this week. As of July 2, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar was unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.76%. The international raw sugar spot price decreased by 1.38% as of June 27, 2025. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 29,497 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 23,424 [12][15][21] - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,150 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,880 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,318 yuan/ton (down 0.55% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota was 5,480 yuan/ton (down 0.56% week - on - week). The in - quota profit of importing Brazilian sugar was 1,617 yuan/ton (up 0.87% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota profit was 455 yuan/ton (up 4.84% week - on - week). Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [25][28][34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, with a national sugar production of 1.11621 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons (12.03% increase). As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% surge year - on - year, but the cumulative import from January to May was 630,000 tons, a 50.1% decrease year - on - year [38][42][46] - **Demand Side**: The cumulative national sugar sales were 811,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons (23.07% increase), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 906,600 tons (a 4.9% year - on - year increase), and the cumulative output of soft drinks was 7.46 billion tons (a 25.19% year - on - year increase) [50][55] 3.4 Option and Stock - related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of sugar this week was presented, but specific data was not fully described [56] - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but specific data was not fully described [60]
白糖市场周报:技术性调整,趋势暂未改变-20250620
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 08:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. Internationally, the monsoon season has improved the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia, with expected restorative production increases, and the increased supply of Brazilian sugar has suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, in May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices and slowing down the decline. In the short term, it shows an adjustment trend, but the supply pressure remains, and the overall trend has not changed. It is recommended to treat the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. International factors include improved production prospects in Asian sugar - producing countries and increased Brazilian sugar supply suppressing prices. Domestic factors are a large increase in sugar imports in May 2025 and approaching summer consumption peak season. It is recommended to treat the contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - This week, the price of the US Sugar 7 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.15%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.46% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 407.67% month - on - month. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. The top 20 net positions in the sugar futures were - 58,428 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 27,669. The 9 - 1 contract spread of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was + 147 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was 380 yuan/ton [10][14][22] Spot Market - As of June 19, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 0.69% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,446 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 0.68% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,468 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. As of this week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,452 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, a 27.41% increase from last week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,430 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 222 yuan/ton, a 32.14% increase from last week [28][31][37] 3. Industry Chain Situation Supply Side - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to May 2025 was only 630,000 tons, a 50.1% year - on - year decrease [41][45][49] Demand Side - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a 6.52 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar in China was 8.666 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative output of soft drinks from January to April was 59.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [53][57] 4. Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the options market and the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry in the stock - futures correlation market, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][62]