白糖日报 2025 年 9 月 18 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,474 | -45 | -0.82% | 724 | 499 | 1,376 | 546 | | SR01 | | 5,474 | -55 | -0.99% | 315,458 | 155951 | 432,454 | 44260 | | SR05 | | 5,456 | -54 | -0.98% | 34,171 | 22477 | 52,980 | 9066 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both sugar futures and spot prices have risen, driven by increased sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil [1] - As of Friday's close, the white sugar futures contract 2601 settled at 5540 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [1] - In the Guangxi Nanning region, the spot price of white sugar was 5890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - An industry survey of 11 analysts predicts that Brazil's central-south region will crush 49.5 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Sugar production is expected to reach 3.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while ethanol production is forecasted at 2.4 billion liters, a decrease of 2.5% [1] - Domestic forecasts indicate that 48.94 million tons of raw sugar will arrive at ports outside the quota by August 2025, with 30.43 million tons expected in September [1] Group 3 - Market analysis suggests that the acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil since August has led to a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production, with a record high sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - Despite the pressure on raw sugar futures prices due to increased production expectations in the northern hemisphere, the ethanol market provides some support, limiting the short-term downside for raw sugar [1] - The domestic sugar market has faced poor production and sales in August, raising concerns about potential policy relaxations on syrup, leading to a weaker market trend [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recovery of sugar production in Brazil suppresses sugar prices, while Zhengzhou sugar shows relatively strong performance compared to the external market, with the 5600 mark having strong support [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly, with the main October contract closing down 0.85% at 16.34 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.1% at $492.70 per ton. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken yesterday, with the 01 contract closing at 5623 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan or 0.45%, and reducing positions by 264 lots. Today, Zhengzhou sugar 01 fluctuated narrowly, performing slightly stronger than the external market, with three consecutive lower shadow lines on the technical chart and strong support at the 5600 mark. After the market, the previous speculative long positions started to turn short [7][8] - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Unica report, in the first half of August, the total sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.17%, and the sugar production increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons [7] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in the producing areas decreased slightly, with the price of Nanning sugar at 5960 yuan and that of Kunming sugar at 5790 yuan [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil's Port Shipping**: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting for export in the week, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.4764 million tons. The quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 1.7817 million tons, and that at Paranagua Port was 0.6127 million tons [9] - **Brazil's Sugar Production Forecast**: Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for the country's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane cultivation. The sugar production in the central - southern region is currently estimated at 40.6 million tons, a 2.8% decrease from the April forecast of 41.8 million tons. Despite the downward adjustment, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [9] - **ICE Position Data**: As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 lots, a decrease of 2,291 lots from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 179,365 lots, a decrease of 11,403 lots from the previous week; speculative short positions were 310,352 lots, an increase of 4,227 lots from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 130,987 lots, an increase of 15,630 lots from the previous week [9] - **Guangxi Sugar Inventory**: According to data from the Pan - Sugar Technology Smart Storage and Transportation Platform, as of August 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than the average level of the past five years. In August, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 140,000 tons compared to July, and the de - stocking speed slowed down significantly [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][16] - **Top 20 Seats' Trading and Position Data**: The total trading volume of the top 20 seats was 187,750 lots, a decrease of 12,543 lots; the total long position was 252,364 lots, a decrease of 178 lots; the total short position was 269,805 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil reaches its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The actual sugar production in Brazil is currently lower than expected, and the final output remains uncertain. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. The domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is greatly affected by the international market and is expected to follow the trend of external sugar, with prices fluctuating slightly within a range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, a strategy of selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles can be considered [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,678, down 42 (-0.73%); SR01 closed at 5,632, down 56 (-0.98%); SR05 closed at 5,599, down 47 (-0.83%). The trading volume of SR01 increased by 78,039, and its open interest decreased by 1,534 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan were reported. The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions ranged from 227 to 692 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 33, up 9; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 79, up 5; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 46, up 14 [5]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, along with their spreads to the Liuzhou and Rizhao spot prices and the futures price [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: - Brazil exported 281.39 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of August 2025, a 0.27% increase from the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 17.58 million tons [7]. - The quotes of processing sugar in various regions such as Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong remained unchanged, with general trading volume [8]. - As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 from the previous week. Speculative long positions decreased by 11,403, short positions increased by 4,227, and the net short position increased by 15,630 [10]. - **Logical Analysis**: - Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected due to low cane crushing volume and sugar content. The external sugar price is expected to move sideways [11]. - Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is arriving, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar price and fluctuate slightly in the short - term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Consider selling relatively out - of - the - money wide straddles [14]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, sugar basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [15][19][24][25][28][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The selling pressure after the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started will drag down the raw sugar price center. The expected increase in Brazilian production and the expected increase in sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere's new season will suppress the raw sugar price. Domestically, the fast sales - to - production ratio may support the sugar price, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down the sugar price. Considering the recent weak trend of raw sugar, the sugar price will maintain a weak operation in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend in the short term due to the expected global supply - demand surplus, but there may be buying support at lower levels. In China, the faster - than - expected sales - to - production ratio supports the spot price, but due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming pressure of processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: For SR2509, the closing price was 5,805, up 26 (0.46%), with a trading volume of 163,903 (up 15.64%) and an open interest of 298,087 (up 3.77%); for SR2601, the closing price was 5,632, up 26 (0.46%), with a trading volume of 21,265 (up 20.44%) and an open interest of 107,409 (up 2.23%); for SR2511, the closing price was 5,690, up 21 (0.37%), with a trading volume of 23,328 (down 0.21%) and an open interest of 55,383 (up 2.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions were as follows: 6120 in Liuzhou, 5895 in Kunming, 6040 in Nanning, 6150 in Bayuquan, 6135 in Rizhao, and 6410 in Xi'an. The price in Kunming increased by 30, and the price in Xi'an increased by 20. The basis in Liuzhou was 430, in Kunming was 205, in Nanning was 350, in Bayuquan was 460, in Rizhao was 445, and in Xi'an was 720 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR11 - SR01 spread was 58, down 5; the SR09 - SR11 spread was 115, up 225; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 173, unchanged [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4445, the out - of - quota price was 5682, with a spread of 438 compared to Liuzhou, 453 compared to Rizhao, and - 50 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4494, the out - of - quota price was 5694, with a spread of 426 compared to Liuzhou, 441 compared to Rizhao, and - 62 compared to the futures market [3]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International**: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. The new Brazilian crushing season's selling pressure and production increase expectations, along with the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's new - season production, will suppress the raw sugar price. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [4]. - **Domestic**: The fast sales - to - production ratio supports the sugar price, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weak raw sugar trend will drag down the domestic sugar price in the short term [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly follow the raw sugar price and maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The short - term sugar price is affected by Brazilian production data, and the long - term trend depends on Brazil's production progress and actual output increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed supports sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar and the recent weakness of raw sugar may drag down domestic sugar prices. The short - term sugar price is expected to be weak [4]. - Raw sugar prices are falling due to expected global supply increases, and Brazilian sugar production changes are crucial. Domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Data**: SR2511 closed at 5,710, down 11 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 171,885 (down 10.50%) and an open interest of 349,073 (down 1.34%); SR2507 closed at 5,744, down 6 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 1,817 (down 21.38%) and an open interest of 11,080 (down 5.23%); SR2509 closed at 5,597, down 22 (0.39%), with a trading volume of 22,478 (down 26.02%) and an open interest of 51,737 (up 0.95%) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions, the spot prices in Liuzhou were 6090, in Kunming were 5860 - 6040, in Zhanjiang were 6175, in Nanning were 6160, in Bayuquan were 6420, in Rizhao were 6420, and in Xi'an were 6420 [3]. - **Import Data**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE主力 was 16.52, with a quota - free price of 4395, a tariff - included price of 5617, a spread of 473 compared to Liuzhou, 543 compared to Rizhao, and 127 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the ICE主力 was 16.52, with a quota - free price of 4431, a tariff - included price of 5664, a spread of 426 compared to Liuzhou, 496 compared to Rizhao, and 80 compared to the futures market [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **International Market**: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. Short - term price is affected by production data, and long - term needs to focus on production progress and actual output increase [4]. - **Domestic Market**: Fast production and sales support prices, but incoming sugar imports and weak raw sugar may drag down prices. The short - term sugar price will be weak [4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Raw sugar is falling due to supply expectations, and Brazilian production is key. Domestic sugar prices will follow raw sugar in the short term [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Options: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. Third Part: Related Attachments The report includes figures such as Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative production - sales rate, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread, with data from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][13][16].