白糖市场行情

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白糖市场周报-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:51
瑞达期货研究院 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.09.26」 白糖市场周报 研究员:王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 行情回顾:本周郑糖2601合约价格小涨,周度涨幅约0.31%。 行情展望:巴西航运机构Williams发布的数据显示,截至9月24日当周巴西港口等 待装运食糖的船只数量为76艘,此前一周为85艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 310.39万吨,此前一周328.27万吨。当周等待装运出口的食糖船只数量减少,出口 运力稍放缓。隔夜白糖2601合约收跌0.05%。国内方面,北方糖厂少量开榨,且新 年度糖预计微幅增产,现货价格稳中走弱。当前泰国进口糖浆管控有所放松,预计 后期糖浆数量出现小幅回升。加之广西糖产地销糖进度缓慢,受加工糖挤压。不过 台风天气导致广西等地甘蔗出现倒伏,短期市场情绪影响,下方存支撑,但向上有 供应充足压制。 交易策略:操作上,建议郑糖2601合约短期观望为主。 未来关注因素: 1、国内产销情况 2、新季产量 3 「 期现 ...
白糖市场周报-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The price of the ICE US Sugar October contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [5][11][15]. - Internationally, institutions predict that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. Downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking stage, and rigid demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the decline of sugar prices may be limited [5]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to focus on include domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: International sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, sales in August were lower than usual, but inventory was low. Downstream stocking may support prices, and short - term price decline may be limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar October contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 85,805 lots, an increase of 11,067 lots from the previous week [11]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot**: The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 51,979 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11,599 [18][23]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 23 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 430 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 177 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [46]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [50]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an acceleration of 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [54]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In July 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [58]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but no specific data is given [59]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [64].
白糖市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:38
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 白糖市场周报 研究员:王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾:本周郑糖2601合约价格下跌,周度跌幅约1.45%。 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院 行情展望:国际糖业组织ISO预测显示,2025/26年度全球食糖供需缺口仅为23.1 万吨,尽管与2024/25年度修正值487.9万吨相比,短缺规模的缩小幅度很大,但在 新年度开始之前,这种规模的全球缺口可以忽略不计。国内方面,8月单月广西、 云南销糖数据同比均减少,8月广西单月销糖26.02万吨,同比减少9.69万吨;8月 云南单月销糖13.09万吨,同比减少1.01万吨。不过下游处于双节备货阶段,预计 刚需对价格有所支撑。短期糖价下跌或受限。 交易策略:操作上,建议郑糖2601合约短期观望为主。 未来关注因素: 1、国内产销情况 2、双节备货 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图1、ICE美糖 ...
白糖市场周报:进口量增加,白糖承压走低-20250829
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 09:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 1.16%. Globally, the production outlook of major sugar - producing countries in Asia is favorable, leading to a looser supply expectation. However, the market is concerned about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and there are signs of improved demand, causing the raw sugar price to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start to be crushed in September, increasing the supply temporarily. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking for the upcoming double festivals will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not large, but the number of processed sugar has increased, and the current inventory reduction process has slowed down significantly. For the new crop, the expected output in the new sugar - crushing season is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, factors such as a large increase in imports, the upcoming crushing of northern sugar mills, and the high expected output in the new season will suppress the sugar price to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price dropped with a 1.16% weekly decline. International raw sugar prices were low - level oscillating. Domestic imports soared, and future supply will increase, while demand will be promoted by pre - holiday stocking. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses. - **Future Focus**: Consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract rose by about 0.36% this week. As of August 19, 2025, non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.34% month - on - month, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2.60% month - on - month. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 17,161 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 13,916 [10][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.74 cents per pound, down 1.12% month - on - month. As of August 29, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,010 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,830 yuan per ton. As of August 27, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,786 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,772 yuan per ton, up 0.30% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,542 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,278 yuan per ton, down 2.22% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 44 yuan per ton, down 42.86% month - on - month. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,288 yuan per ton, down 2.20% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 58 yuan per ton [13][23][26][31]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of July 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 1.6123 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,500 tons. In July, China's sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, the sugar import volume was 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [35][37][42]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.79663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. ,3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [57].
白糖市场周报:外盘宽幅震荡,影响国内波动反复-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, leading to a loose global supply expectation. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement, causing the raw sugar price to fluctuate widely at a short - term low. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the demand for cold drinks is in the peak season, and the double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not large due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, but the increase in the number of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The new sugar - pressing season's output is expected to remain at the highest level in the past four years. Overall, the low - level fluctuation of the outer market affects the domestic market to fluctuate repeatedly. Fundamentally, the import is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the customs import data in July. The supply in the new sugar - pressing season is expected to be stable with a slight increase. Although short - term double - festival stocking provides support, it will still face pressure in the future. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short. Future factors to watch include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. The international raw sugar price fluctuated widely at a low level, and the domestic market was affected by it. The import pressure was released, and the supply would increase temporarily in September. The demand was expected to increase, and the de - stocking process slowed down [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short [8]. - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.05%. As of August 5, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.90% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.22% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 23.85% month - on - month. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 29,055 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 17,104 [10][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.36 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. As of August 15, the price of Guangxi Liuzhou sugar was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Kunming sugar was 5,860 yuan per ton. As of August 13, 2025, the out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar was 5,786 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Thai sugar was 5,901 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the in - quota price was 4,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of August 13, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,324 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.84%; the out - of - quota profit was 90 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 164.71%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,236 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%; the out - quota profit was - 25 yuan per ton [13][26][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had ended, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons and a growth rate of 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the cumulative sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%; the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of white sugar this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [54]. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [58].
白糖、棉花:国际糖价或宽松,棉价先强后弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 04:17
Group 1 - The international raw sugar futures are fluctuating between 15.5 - 17 cents per pound, pressured by Brazil's high sugar-to-ethanol ratio, leading to weak prices [1] - Brazil's 25/26 sugar season is expected to have low yield and sugar content, and if the sugar-to-ethanol ratio declines, production may fall short of expectations, potentially supporting international sugar prices [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that if Brazil, India, and Thailand increase production, the raw sugar supply and demand will become more relaxed [1] Group 2 - Domestic sugar market lacks fundamental trading topics, with focus shifting to imported sugar; July sugar imports may increase, putting pressure on futures [1] - It is anticipated that by the end of the third quarter, domestic sugar supply pressure will increase, leading to potential backwardation in distant contracts, with a recommendation to short on rallies [1] Group 3 - Cotton prices initially rose and then fell in July, with the rise attributed to macro sentiment and subsequent profit-taking by funds [1] - As of the end of July, national cotton commercial inventory is depleting quickly, and low inventory from old crops supports cotton prices, while strong expectations for new crop yields are present [1] - Demand side shows some improvement, with the macro context of delayed US-China tariffs suggesting short-term cotton prices may remain volatile but biased towards strength [1] Group 4 - In the medium term, continuous negative feedback from downstream enterprises and increasing pressure from new crop listings may lead to a shift in market logic, potentially resulting in price declines [1] - Overall, cotton prices are expected to be strong initially and then weaken, with a recommendation for high short positions [1]
白糖产业周报-20250804
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 10:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices dropped significantly, erasing the gains of the past month. Due to increased imports, the domestic sugar sales volume in July is expected to decline compared to last year, and the profit from out-of-quota imports still exists but faces shrinkage risks. Without further support for price increases, sugar prices dropped sharply. Overseas, influenced by the expected increase in production in India and Thailand and the increase in Brazil's production in early July, raw sugar prices also trended downward. In the short term, the price decline of SR2509 shows no sign of stopping and may further approach the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - The spot price in Nanning is 6050 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it is 5840 - 5960 yuan/ton. In May, China imported 6.42 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 15.07 tons. In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a significant year-on-year increase [3]. International Market - Brazil exported 2.3447 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,500 tons, a 2% increase compared to June last year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data shows that in early July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 49.823 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%, produced 3.406 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 14.07%, and the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, compared to 50.11% last year. ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 25/26 season will recover to 34.9 million tons due to the increase in planting areas in Maharashtra and Karnataka [9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads Sugar Futures Weekly Price and Spread - As of August 4, 2025, the closing prices and spreads of various sugar futures contracts are as follows: SR01 is 5620 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR03 is 5595 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR05 is 5570 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR07 is 5571 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR09 is 5733 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR11 is 5653 yuan/ton with 0% change; SB is 16.2 with 0% change; W is 465 with 0% change. The spreads between different contracts are also provided [5]. Sugar Spot Weekly Price and Spread - As of August 1, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Zhanjiang, Rizhao, and Urumqi and their spreads are presented. For example, the price in Nanning is 5990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Liuzhou is 5980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Kunming is 5810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis - As of August 1, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning and Kunming and various sugar futures contracts are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 is 410, up 66; the basis of Kunming - SR01 is 260, up 46 [7][10]. Sugar Weekly Import Price Change - As of July 31, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are provided, along with the price differences between domestic locations and imported sugar [11].
白糖市场周报:内强外内格局凸显,关注我们获业务咨询-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Domestically, the price trend is different from that abroad. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the restocking demand of the food and beverage industry provide some support. Internationally, the good supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports suppress the raw sugar price, but Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in late June provide short - term support. Overall, the domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price, but the domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. In the later stage, both supply and demand are strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the supply is expected to be loose, but there is short - term support. Domestically, the import pressure will be released, but the demand provides support. The domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price and is stronger than the foreign market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on are consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 0.67% this week. As of July 9, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar remained unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar increased by 2.67% month - on - month. [8] - The international raw sugar spot price increased. As of July 4, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.72 cents per pound, a month - on - month increase of 4.57%. [11] - This week, the top 20 net positions in the white sugar futures were - 19,355 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 22,744. [17] - **Spot Market** - As of July 11, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,895 yuan per ton. [21] - As of July 8, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 4,457 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%; the estimated out - of - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 5,662 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated out - of - quota import processing price of Thai sugar (50% tariff) was 5,715 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the estimated in - quota import processing price of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. [23] - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,476 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 271 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.81%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,435 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 218 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20.44%. [28] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. [32] - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. [36] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. However, from January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were only 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1%. [40] - **Demand Side** - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. [44] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 9.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The cumulative output of soft drinks was 74.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.19%. [49] 3.4. Option and Stock Market - **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not given in the text. [50] - **Stock Market** - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not given in the text. [55]
白糖产业周报-20250630
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 11:08
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Date: June 29, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot Quotes: Nanning intermediary platform offers 6,110 yuan/ton, Kunming intermediary offers 5,830 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 330,000 tons; imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 150,700 tons [3] International Market - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after hitting a new low. The main factor was the oil price increase caused by the Israel-Iran conflict, which drove up the agricultural product sector. However, the rebound of the external market was not strong due to the decoupling of Brazilian gasoline prices from crude oil prices. With relatively low imports in China, the price of domestic sugar is supported [4] Price and Spread Data Futures - Futures closing prices and spreads on June 30, 2025: SR01 at 5,600 yuan/ton with 0% change, SR03 at 5,573 yuan/ton with 0% change, etc. [5] Spot - Spot prices and spreads on June 27, 2025: Nanning at 6,030 yuan/ton with a 50-yuan increase, etc. [6] Basis - Basis and its changes on June 27, 2025: Nanning - SR01 basis at 490 yuan with a 33-yuan increase, etc. [7][10] Import Prices - Import prices and their changes from June 20, 2025: Brazilian import quota price at 4,450 yuan/ton with a 26-yuan decrease, etc. [11] Industry News - In the first three weeks of June, Brazil exported 2.103 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 152,000 tons, a 6% decrease compared to June last year [9] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 35 million tons [9] - According to Unica data, in late May, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 47.85 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, produced 2.95 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%, and the sugar production ratio was 51.85%, compared to 48.2% in the same period last year [9] - Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [9]