智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，亚太新兴经济体在2025年展现出超预期的韧性，但部分驱动 因素在2026年或将减弱，在此过程中出口导向型经济体或将承受更大压力，而内需驱动型市场或更具韧 性。结合CLSA分析，该行预计在高基数的背景下，亚太新兴经济体经济增长或将温和降温，低通胀下 部分经济体的货币政策仍有宽松空间。具体国家来看，印度、印尼、泰国、菲律宾和越南或将延续宽松 周期，但马来西亚和新加坡或将维持稳健的货币政策。 中信证券主要观点如下： 本月核心关注因素：亚太新兴经济体在2025年展现出超预期的韧性，但部分驱动因素在2026年或将减 弱，在此过程中出口导向型经济体或将承受更大压力，而内需驱动型经济体或更具韧性。 2025年，全球经济增长出现超预期韧性，主要得益于消费前置、人工智能资本支出以及强劲的股票市 场，带动亚太新兴经济体实现超预期经济增长。展望2026年，支撑亚太新兴经济体经济增长的驱动因素 可能边际减弱，在前期高基数背景下，亚太新兴经济体增速或将呈现"前低后稳"的温和放缓态势，出口 导向型经济体或将承受更大压力，内需驱动型经济体则相对稳健。此外，全球范围内国家安全范式正经 历深刻变革，或将 ...

人事变动 - CLSA's Southeast Asia investment banking business experienced the departure of three senior bankers [1] 公司动态 - The departures mark the latest round of exits at the China-owned entity [1]

Core Viewpoint - India plans to significantly increase its oil imports from Russia, doubling its procurement volume compared to August, which translates to an additional 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The increase in oil imports is driven by attractive pricing, with discounts on Urals crude oil expanding to $2 to $3 per barrel compared to Brent, up from $1.5 in August [5]. - Approximately 40% of India's oil demand is currently met by Russian supplies, highlighting India's position as the largest buyer in the global oil market [5][6]. - The geopolitical tensions and sanctions against Russia have created a unique opportunity for India to optimize its energy structure and support economic growth [5][8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - India's decision to ramp up oil imports from Russia serves as a direct counter to U.S. trade pressures, showcasing a strategic shift in its foreign policy [4][6]. - The move reflects India's desire to maintain a balanced diplomatic stance, avoiding significant angering of Western nations while strengthening ties with Moscow [6][8]. - The ongoing sanctions against Russia may inadvertently accelerate the "de-dollarization" of energy transactions, as Russia seeks to offer larger discounts to non-Western markets like India [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Autonomy - The current geopolitical landscape provides emerging nations like India with a valuable opportunity to assert strategic autonomy in energy procurement [8]. - India's actions illustrate that in the realm of national interests, relationships are fluid, and decisions are driven by pragmatic considerations rather than ideological alignments [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenues of EUR5.4 billion, up 17% at constant exchange rates, marking the fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth [6][26] - EBIT reached EUR1.28 billion with a margin of 23.6%, an increase from 22.5% in the previous fiscal year [7][28] - Net income increased by 25% year-on-year to EUR839 million [36] - The company closed the year with a net cash position of EUR600 million after significant capital expenditures and dividends [7][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail sales totaled EUR4.8 billion, up 18% versus fiscal year '23 at constant FX, driven by full-price sales [27][29] - Wholesale sales increased by 7% year-on-year, with a 4% rise in Q4 [30] - Royalties grew by 17% year-on-year, supported by eyewear and fragrances [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia Pacific saw a growth of 13% year-on-year, improving to 16% in Q4 [33] - Europe grew by 18% over the year, maintaining a solid growth of 16% in Q4 [33] - The Americas reported a 9% increase in retail sales, with Q4 showing an 11% improvement [34] - Japan was the best-performing region, up 46% year-on-year, with Q4 growth at 31% [34] - The Middle East also performed well, with a 26% increase over the year and 30% in Q4 [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for sustainable long-term growth despite challenging market conditions, focusing on brand strength and product quality [8][10] - Continued investment in store renovations and retail network improvements is a priority [8][28] - The company is committed to sustainability, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 61% and promoting gender equality within management [14][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining growth trajectories despite a challenging environment, particularly in Greater China [42][48] - The company is prepared for potential ups and downs in the market, emphasizing a solid trend in brand performance [48][43] - The outlook for 2025 remains cautious but optimistic, with expectations of continued investment in brand desirability and market presence [43][41] Other Important Information - The company plans to increase its dividend per share to EUR0.164, reflecting a payout ratio of 50% [39] - Capital expenditures for fiscal year '24 were EUR493 million, with expectations for an increase in 2025 [37][119] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Prada's growth in 2025 - Management is confident in maintaining growth for Prada, expecting potential fluctuations but a solid overall trend [48] Question: Acquisition interests in Versace and Jimmy Choo - Management refrained from commenting on rumors but acknowledged differences in the current company structure compared to past acquisition strategies [53] Question: Profitability outlook for fiscal '25 - The focus will remain on investing behind brands rather than cutting back on marketing, aiming for moderate margin expansion [58] Question: Growth by nationality in Q4 - Chinese consumers showed low single-digit growth, while North Americans improved to high single digits [69] Question: Impact of macroeconomic conditions on the U.S. market - Management noted that consumer reactions to macroeconomic changes are not immediate, but they remain optimistic about the U.S. market [81] Question: Profitability gap between Miu Miu and Prada - Miu Miu's profitability has increased significantly, and the company aims for sustainable growth across both brands [92] Question: Retail expansion plans for 2025 - The company expects to see an increase in store openings, particularly for Miu Miu, with a focus on balancing growth and profitability [102] Question: Sales per square meter by brand - Miu Miu's productivity has substantially increased, prompting plans for more store openings [110] Question: Capital allocation and potential investments - The company plans to increase CapEx to around EUR550 million in 2025, focusing on retail and industrial investments [119] Question: Pricing strategy for 2025 - Management indicated there is room for upward pricing adjustments without drastic changes, focusing on a balanced price architecture [130] Question: Chinese consumer behavior and clienteling strategy - The company noted a stable environment for Chinese consumers, focusing on events and tourism for sales [138] Question: Dual listing considerations - There has been no progress on dual listing discussions [143]