Citrini自身也提醒外界不要过度照字面解读这份报告。该机构在刊发于Substack长达7000字的文章第二 句话就写道："下文是一种情景假定，而非预测。" Citrini Research所提出的人工智能将引发大范围失业的观点，正在招致全球各地投资者与经济学家的质 疑。 过去几天里，城堡证券、德意志银行、富达国际、Liontrust Asset Management Plc等机构的专家相继表 示，这一论点最多只能说是牵强附会，白宫一名高级经济学家甚至将其称为"科幻小说"。 尽管如此，哪怕仅作为思想实验，这套"末日叙事"本周仍然席卷了华尔街，拖累软件与金融股进一步下 跌。在投资者本已对AI工具的能力感到不安之际，这份报告火上浇油，描绘了一个AI引发白领大规模 裁员、股市崩盘，并将失业率推高至10%以上的世界。 批评者尤其关注的是Citrini提出的AI将会引发"负面反馈回路"的假说，他们将其称为"人类智能被取代的 螺旋"——企业加大AI投入、减少雇员，被裁员工的消费下降，导致企业利润率受到挤压，于是进一步 采用AI，如此循环往复。 由Citrini引发的一部分市场焦虑已开始缓和。全球股市回升也受到Anthr ...

分组1 - The economic outlook is positive, with expectations of 2.5% to 2.75% real growth for 2026, and inflation is trending down towards the Fed's 2% long-term target [11][12] - Wage growth is projected to exceed 3%, which may lead to real wage gains despite concerns about affordability for lower-income Americans [12] - The corporate profit outlook remains strong, indicating a disconnect between economic indicators and public perception [12] 分组2 - The administration has implemented a 15% across-the-board tariff under section 122 authority, which can be maintained for 150 days, with the weighted average tariff rate remaining around 13% [14] - Investment commitments from foreign countries related to tariff deals are under scrutiny, with indications that some countries may be delaying fulfillment of these agreements [15][16] - The Trump administration is expected to enforce these agreements rigorously, despite potential hesitations from foreign partners [17]

Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley's IB fees jumped 23% in 2025 and 35% in 2024 as deal activity recovered.Evercore's IB & Equities business posted a 10.7% CAGR from 2020-2025, aided by recovery.Morgan Stanley's 12-month forward P/E is 14.89X versus Evercore's 15.88X, shows former trading at a discount.Morgan Stanley (MS) and Evercore Inc. (EVR) represent two distinct, top-tier investment banking (IB) models. Morgan Stanley pairs advisory and capital markets strength with sizable wealth and asset management platf ...

Core Viewpoint - BGC Group (BGC) is currently viewed as a superior value option compared to Evercore (EVR) based on various valuation metrics [7] Valuation Metrics - BGC has a forward P/E ratio of 6.80, while EVR has a forward P/E of 17.28 [5] - BGC's PEG ratio is 0.34, indicating a more favorable valuation in relation to its expected EPS growth compared to EVR's PEG ratio of 0.51 [5] - BGC's P/B ratio stands at 3.91, compared to EVR's P/B of 5.93, suggesting BGC is more undervalued relative to its book value [6] Earnings Outlook - Both BGC and EVR hold a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions and an improving earnings outlook for both companies [3]

Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock market indices closed slightly higher on February 17, 2026, despite declines in software equities, influenced by a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index and a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report [1][2] Investment Strategy - The current market uncertainty may lead investors to prefer low-leverage stocks for financial resilience and capital preservation, with recommendations including Orion Group (ORN), Copa Holdings (CPA), Coeur Mining (CDE), Tim S.A. (TIMB), and Evercore (EVR) [3][11] Low-Leverage Stocks - Low-leverage stocks are preferred as they are generally less risky, especially during volatile market conditions. The debt-to-equity ratio is a key metric for assessing a company's financial risk, with lower ratios indicating better solvency [7][8] Company Highlights - **Orion Group (ORN)**: Acquired J. E. McAmis, Inc. and JEM Marine Leasing LLC for approximately $60 million, with 2026 earnings expected to improve by 63.6% [15][17] - **Copa Holdings (CPA)**: Reported a 9.6% increase in fourth-quarter operating revenues and a 5.3% rise in EPS, with 2026 revenues projected to grow by 11.5% [18][19] - **Coeur Mining (CDE)**: Increased mineral reserves to 4.4 million ounces of gold and 274.4 million ounces of silver, with 2026 earnings expected to jump by 143.3% [20][22] - **Tim S.A. (TIMB)**: Announced acquisition of 51% of I-Systems for approximately $180 million, aiming to expand in the broadband segment, with 2026 revenues expected to rise by 10.3% [23][24] - **Evercore (EVR)**: Reported a 32% increase in fourth-quarter revenues and a 50% rise in adjusted EPS, with 2026 revenues projected to grow by 22.6% [24][25]

Valued at a market cap of $53 billion, Public Storage (PSA) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in Glendale, California. It primarily acquires, develops, owns, and operates self-storage facilities. This self-storage REIT has trailed behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. Shares of PSA have gained 1.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has soared 11.9%. However, on a YTD basis, the stock is up 16.4%, notably outpacing SPX’s slight drop. More News from Barc ...

Private equity firms EQT AB and Vitruvian Partners are working with advisers as they explore strategic options for their investment in cyber insurer CFC, according to people familiar with the matter.The buyout group has appointed Evercore Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to prepare London-based CFC for a potential sale or initial public offering, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. A deal could value the company in the region of £5 billion ($6.8 billion), they said. ...

Core Viewpoint - Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has shown mixed performance in the market, with recent positive quarterly results but a significant decline over the past year compared to broader indices [2][6]. Company Overview - Best Buy is valued at a market cap of $14.8 billion and offers a variety of products including computers, smartphones, televisions, home appliances, and accessories, along with services like installation, repair, and technical support [1]. Market Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, BBY shares have declined by 21%, while the S&P 500 Index has gained 15.6% [2]. - Year-to-date, BBY's stock has seen a marginal increase, contrasting with the S&P 500's rise of 1.7% [2]. Recent Financial Results - On November 25, BBY shares rose by 5.3% following better-than-expected Q3 results, with comparable sales growing by 2.7% and total revenue increasing by 2.4% year-over-year to $9.7 billion, surpassing consensus estimates [6]. - Adjusted EPS for the quarter advanced by 11.1% to $1.40, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.31 [6]. - BBY raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting adjusted EPS guidance between $6.25 and $6.35 [6]. Analyst Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in January, analysts expect BBY's EPS to decline slightly to $6.31 [7]. - BBY has a promising earnings surprise history, having topped consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters [7]. - Among 24 analysts covering BBY, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with seven "Strong Buy," 16 "Hold," and one "Moderate Sell" rating [7]. Analyst Ratings Update - The configuration of analyst ratings has become less bullish compared to a month ago, with eight analysts suggesting a "Strong Buy" rating [8]. - Evercore Inc. maintained an "In Line" rating on BBY but lowered its price target to $70, indicating a potential upside of 4.4% from current levels [8].

"软件类股票的抛售，带动了持有它们的金融公司，尤其是那些带杠杆的金融公司们的股票抛售。"Nationwide首席市场策略师马 克·哈克特(Mark Hackett)表示。"这轮抛售的强度被交易过于拥挤且多头势力退场的特性进一步放大。" 软件股暴跌，BDC与私募信贷类金融公司股价随之暴跌 以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数本周势将录得自4月初以来最差单周表现;当时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)推出的 大范围关税在全球市场引发混乱。这一冲击也蔓延至市场其他领域，金融板块中的部分领域遭受重创。一个资产管理公司指标 本周下跌逾6%，景顺全球上市私募股权ETF(Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF)下跌超过7%，两者都势将录得自4月以来最 差单周表现。与此同时，VanEck BDC Income ETF本周下跌5.6%，这将是其自10月以来最大周跌幅。 智通财经APP获悉，本周始于科技板块的全球股市暴跌，正迅速吞噬那些大规模投资并向被认为面临人工智能发展风险的软件 制造商们放贷的私募信贷类金融公司。另类资产管理公司、投资银行以及商业发展公司(BDC)都在遭 ...

Core Viewpoint - Devon Energy and Coterra Energy are merging in an all-stock transaction, creating a significant player in the US shale industry with an estimated combined enterprise value of $58 billion [1] Group 1: Merger Details - The merger has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors and is expected to be finalized in the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals [2] - Coterra Energy shareholders will receive 0.7 shares of Devon Energy common stock for each share they own, resulting in Devon Energy shareholders owning approximately 54% and Coterra Energy shareholders about 46% of the new entity on a fully diluted basis [2] Group 2: Synergies and Operational Strategy - The merger aims to achieve $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies through enhanced capital efficiency, optimized capital allocation, and technology integration, which will drive per-share growth in free cash flow and net asset value [3] - The combined production portfolio will exceed 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, supported by high-quality acreage in the Delaware Basin [5] Group 3: Leadership and Governance - Post-merger, Devon Energy's president and CEO Clay Gaspar will continue in his role, while Coterra Energy's president and CEO Tom Jorden will become the non-executive chairman [6] - The board will consist of 11 members, with six directors from Devon Energy and five from Coterra Energy [7] Group 4: Financial Implications - The merger is structured to enhance Devon Energy's investment-grade status and reduce future capital costs [6] - The combined entity is expected to drive higher free cash flow and greater shareholder returns beyond what either company could achieve independently [5]