Investment Rating - The report upgrades MGP to Buy from Neutral, highlighting its sustainable growth and resilient margins in the premium beauty market [10] - Giant Biogene is rated Buy, with expectations of a gradual recovery in sales and strong long-term growth potential [16] - Shanghai Jahwa is also rated Buy, indicating a turnaround in its skincare business and solid growth prospects [22] Core Insights - The China cosmetics industry is expected to see sustained momentum driven by higher-quality channels and a focus on new product cycles [3] - The government's anti-involution measures are likely to increase traffic acquisition costs, impacting sales on platforms like Douyin [3] - There is a shift towards reliability and brand trust in consumer preferences, prompting companies to innovate and upgrade their product offerings [4] Summary by Sections Key Trends - Higher-quality channels are expected to maintain momentum, particularly on Tmall, supported by government measures [3] - The product landscape is shifting towards proven efficacy and brand trust, with companies innovating to create new value propositions [4] Company-Specific Insights - MGP is positioned for sustainable growth with a projected 34%/38% sales/NI CAGR from 2021-2025, and 23%/22% from 2025-2027 [10][11] - Giant Biogene anticipates a sales decline in the short term but expects recovery driven by its leading brand position and product pipeline [16] - Shanghai Jahwa is experiencing strong growth in its key brands, with a projected CAGR of 2%/34% for its personal care/cosmetics segment from 2025-2027 [22] Valuation Methodology - MGP's target price is set at HK$105 based on a 28x 2027E P/E, reflecting its high growth profile [12] - Giant Biogene's target price is HK$46, based on a 22x 2027E P/E, indicating a recovery in its sales profile [17] - Shanghai Jahwa's target price is RMB 28, based on a 30x 2027E P/E, reflecting its improving sales and net profit profile [23]

Summary of the China Cosmetics 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Cosmetics** industry, projecting trends and company performances leading into 2026 [3][9]. Key Trends Trend 1: Higher-Quality Channels - **Tmall's Growth**: Anticipated sustained growth in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on Tmall, supported by platform strengths such as better product returns and subsidies, increased user loyalty, and stronger brand collaborations [3][4]. - **Government Regulations**: Implementation of stricter tax enforcement limiting promotional costs to 30% of sales for cosmetics, potentially increasing traffic acquisition costs and impacting sales on traffic-dependent platforms like Douyin [3][4]. Trend 2: Product Innovation - **Consumer Preferences**: Shift towards reliability, proven efficacy, and brand trust due to the absence of a dominant ingredient cycle [4][5]. - **Ingredient Trends**: Companies are innovating with new ingredients like PDRN in skincare products, with notable examples including L'Oreal and Proya. Helena Rubinstein has increased the Pro-Xylane content in its flagship product from 30% to 50% [4][5]. Company Insights Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGP) - **Performance**: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy, with expected sales and net income CAGR of 23% and 22% from 2025 to 2027, respectively. MGP is positioned as a local premium player in the Chinese beauty market [9][10]. - **Market Position**: MGP has shown resilience with a 34% sales CAGR from 2021 to 2025 despite market headwinds, supported by a strong omni-channel strategy and consumer engagement [9][10]. Giant Biogene - **Market Leadership**: Recognized as a global leader in recombinant collagen, despite facing a projected sales decline of 21% and 8% in 2H25E and 1H26E, respectively [14][15]. - **Recovery Outlook**: Expected gradual recovery starting in 2H26E, with a projected sales growth of 12% to 17% in 2027, driven by strong product pipelines and market position in skin repair [14][15]. Shanghai Jahwa - **Turnaround Strategy**: Focused on core brands and online channels, achieving significant growth in key cosmetics brands, with Dr. Yu and Herborist showing 40% and 150% growth, respectively [19][20]. - **Future Projections**: Anticipated CAGR of 2% for personal care and cosmetics segments from 2025 to 2027, with cosmetics expected to contribute 35% of total revenue by 2027 [22][19]. Valuation and Risks - **MGP Valuation**: Target price set at HK$105 based on a 28x 2027E P/E, reflecting a premium due to its high growth profile [11][12]. - **Giant Biogene Valuation**: Target price of HK$46 based on a 22x 2027E P/E, with risks including competition and product development challenges [15][16]. - **Jahwa Valuation**: Target price of RMB 28 based on a 30x 2027E P/E, with risks related to overseas business performance and execution in online channels [20][21]. Conclusion - The China cosmetics industry is poised for growth driven by higher-quality channels and product innovation. Companies like MGP, Giant Biogene, and Shanghai Jahwa are positioned to capitalize on these trends, although they face various risks that could impact their performance.

Summary of China Cosmetics Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The China cosmetics sector is expected to experience a reset for higher-quality growth in 2026, moving away from reliance on high-cost Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) and focusing on popular core SKUs. This shift has led to a contraction in Net Profit Margin (NPM) due to deleveraging impacts, despite improvements in Return on Investment (ROI) [1][2]. Key Trends and Insights - **Consumer Acquisition Costs**: Monitoring new consumer acquisition costs will be critical, especially as channel migration benefits diminish and the ingredient cycle remains ambiguous. Anti-involution policies will also play a significant role [1]. - **Branding Strategy**: Branding is anticipated to be the most effective strategy for consumer engagement and new product launches in 2026. Companies with high repurchase rates and cost-efficient omni-channel strategies are better positioned for success [1][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The cosmetics market is expected to grow at a normalized rate, with growth projected at less than 1x GDP growth. The market is forecasted to see a 2.1% increase in beauty spending in 2026, with a mix of onshore and offshore market performance [17][18]. Company-Specific Insights - **Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGP)**: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy with a target price increase from HK$89 to HK$105, reflecting a 27% upside. The company is noted for strong branding and a balanced channel presence, with a forecasted sales and net income CAGR of 23% and 22% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][9]. - **Giant Biogene**: Maintained as Buy, with a target price lowered from HK$71 to HK$46, indicating a 36% upside. The company is expected to recover with new skincare products and a focus on medical aesthetics, projecting sequential growth of -8%/+12%/+17% YoY for 1H26E/2H26E/2027E [2][9]. - **Shanghai Jahwa**: Target price reduced from RMB 31 to RMB 28, with a 22% upside. The company is on a turnaround trajectory with improving margins and cash flow [2][9]. - **Proya Cosmetics**: Remains Neutral as the company is expected to moderate organic growth while awaiting more execution on white space exploration [2][9]. - **Botanee Biotech**: Neutral rating with early signs of a potential turnaround but lacking clear growth drivers [2][9]. - **Bloomage Biotech**: Maintained as Sell due to downside risks in skincare and muted growth in medical aesthetics amid a mature product cycle [2][9]. Market Performance and Projections - **E-commerce Trends**: Tmall is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by anti-involution measures. Douyin's performance has been softer than expected, with a significant decline in KOL channel performance [19][21]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: The cosmetics sector is projected to see sustained GMV growth on Tmall, while Douyin is expected to experience a narrowing gap in growth rates compared to Tmall [20][21]. Conclusion - The China cosmetics sector is poised for a shift towards higher-quality growth in 2026, with branding and strategic channel management becoming increasingly important. Companies that adapt to these changes and focus on core products are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [1][2][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on China Consumer Trends Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Consumer Sector - **Presentation Date**: November 14, 2025 - **Research Firm**: Morgan Stanley Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumption Trends**: The presentation discusses current trends in consumer spending in China, highlighting a shift towards "New Consumption" categories, which include innovative and experiential products [9][12][24]. - **Market Performance**: Key "New Consumption" stocks have shown significant growth, with some companies experiencing share price increases of up to 174% year-to-date [43][44]. - **Retail Sales Growth**: Overall retail sales in October 2025 reported a year-over-year growth of 2.9%, with specific categories like Gold & Jewelry seeing a remarkable increase of 37.6% [76][78]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: There is a noted decline in consumer confidence, with expectations for household financial situations decreasing over recent months [64]. Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: The market cap of key "New Consumption" stocks has been highlighted, with significant figures reported for various sectors [10][11]. - **Earnings Growth**: The average earnings growth for consumer stocks is projected at 6% for 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% from 2024 to 2026 [27][80]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: Current P/E ratios for consumer stocks are compared against historical averages, indicating a discount to the 15-year average for several segments [48][50]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sector Divergence**: There is a notable divergence in performance within consumer segments, with some categories outperforming others significantly [45][46]. - **Macro Drivers**: The presentation touches on macroeconomic factors influencing consumer behavior, including GDP growth and inflation rates, which are critical for understanding the broader economic context [54][55]. - **Consumer Credit Trends**: The report indicates trends in consumer credit, which may impact spending patterns and overall economic health [59][60]. Conclusion - The presentation provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the China consumer market, emphasizing the growth of "New Consumption" sectors, the performance of key stocks, and the macroeconomic factors at play. Investors are advised to consider these insights when making investment decisions in the consumer sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic indicators, particularly focusing on the **manufacturing sector** and **capital markets** in China. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: Following the meeting between President Xi and President Trump on October 30, the US announced a **10% reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs** on China and a partial loosening of export controls. In return, China agreed to postpone its rare earth controls for one year and resume soybean purchases [1][1][1]. - **GDP Growth Forecasts**: Economists have revised the **2025 real GDP growth forecast** for China to **5.0%** (up from **4.9%**), with **2026/27 forecasts** also increased to **4.8%** and **4.7%** respectively, driven by stronger export growth and government spending [1][1][1]. - **Market Performance**: The MXCN and CSI300 indices experienced losses of **1.5%** and **0.4%** respectively. However, there were **US$3.5 billion inflows** into the Southbound Connect this week, indicating continued interest in Chinese equities [1][1][1]. - **Industrial Profit and Revenue**: In September, industrial profit increased by **23.0%** year-over-year, while revenue rose by **3.3%** year-over-year [1][1][1]. - **PMI Indicators**: The NBS manufacturing PMI decreased to **49.0**, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly improved to **50.1** in October [1][1][1]. Additional Important Insights - **Capital Market Focus**: The CSRC Chair highlighted six key areas for capital markets under the **15th Five-Year Plan**, emphasizing the government's commitment to enhancing market conditions [1][1][1]. - **Loan Demand and Business Conditions**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) Q3 surveys suggest marginally better loan demand and improved business conditions, indicating a potential recovery in the financial sector [4][4][4]. - **Sector Performance**: The **Materials** sector outperformed with a **3.1%** increase, while the **Real Estate** sector lagged with a **-1.5%** decline [3][3][3]. - **Earnings Growth Projections**: The consensus for **2025/26 EPS growth** is projected at **1%/16%** for MXCN and **15%/13%** for CSI300, with the **Materials** sector seeing the most significant upward revision [10][10][10]. Conclusion The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of trade relations, GDP growth forecasts, and sector performance. The insights suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Chinese market, driven by government policies and improving economic indicators.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese beauty e-commerce market experienced a slight contraction in September with a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) decline of -1.0% and a -2.6% decline in Q3, following a -2.2% decline in August [2][21] - Despite the overall market decline, tracked cosmetics leaders outperformed with +8.1% growth in September, up from +6.5% in August, and a solid +12% two-year CAGR [2][21] - The tracked beauty companies gained market share by +125 basis points (bps) in September, with Q3 growth improving to +6.5% compared to +3.5% in Q2 [2][21] Company Performance Highlights L'Oréal - Achieved +11% GMV growth in September, expanding market share by +177bps [4] - Q3 GMV growth accelerated to +10%, a significant improvement from flat growth in Q2 [4] Estée Lauder - Delivered impressive GMV growth of +16% in September and maintained strong momentum with a +14% increase in Q3 [5] - Market share gains of +299bps were driven by flagship brands La Mer and Estée Lauder [5] LVMH - GMV grew +7% YoY in September, gaining +122bps in market share [6] - The brand Dior was a key driver, with pricing increases offsetting volume declines [6] Proya - Experienced a -9% YoY decrease in September, with its flagship brand declining -11% [8] - Despite frequent new product launches, the company struggled to rejuvenate core brand growth [8] Giant Biogene - Declined -7% YoY in September, with flagship brand Kefumei falling -10% [9] - Consumer confidence was impacted by resurfaced product quality concerns [9] Shiseido - Overall online sales increased by +2% YoY in September, with flagship brand Shiseido seeing a +28% growth [10] - The premium line Clé de Peau declined -15% YoY [10] Beiersdorf - GMV performance rebounded with a +7% increase in September, following a -21% decline in August [11] - Eucerin achieved a +107% GMV increase in September [11] P&G Beauty Brands - Posted robust GMV growth of +21% in September, rebounding from +5% growth in August [12] - Significant market share gain of +148bps was noted [12] Unilever - Continued to face challenges with a -4% decline in September, following a -21% drop in August [13] - Market share gains were robust, increasing by +133bps [13] Henkel - Beauty Care division faced pressure with a -16% decline in September and -24% in Q3 [14] Investment Implications - Outperform ratings on Beiersdorf and Unilever, with Market-Perform ratings on Henkel and L'Oréal [16] - In the Chinese cosmetics market, Shiseido is rated Underperform, Proya is rated Market-Perform, and Giant Biogene is rated Outperform [18] Additional Insights - The upcoming 11.11 Singles Day festival is seen as a critical checkpoint for assessing brand market positions amid ongoing controversies [9] - The Douyin platform has been a significant contributor to market growth, while T+T continues to observe declines [21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance of major companies within the beauty industry and the overall market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Beauty and Cosmetics in China - **Current Trends**: China's beauty demand and promotions have stabilized in 2025, with growth driven by onshore e-commerce channels while travel retail continues to decline [1][2][4] Market Performance - **Sales Growth**: Government data indicates a 3.3% growth in cosmetics sales from January to August 2025, slightly below GDP growth but an improvement from a 1.1% decline in 2024 [2][4] - **Channel Performance**: - E-commerce platforms experienced a 5-10% growth in beauty sales [2] - Hainan travel retail saw an 8-10% decline [2] - Offline sales are expected to be a drag on overall performance [2] Key Brand Performances - **L'Oréal**: Sales dipped by 0.2% to 0.3% in Q1 2025 but rose by 3% in Q2 2025, with a full-year target of approximately 5% growth [4] - **Estée Lauder**: Onshore e-commerce grew in mid-single digits in Q1 2025, with travel retail contributing about 15% of full-year sales [4] - **Shiseido**: Reported a low single-digit decline in Q2 2025 sales, with e-commerce up in low teens but offline and travel retail down sharply [4] - **Amorepacific**: Post-restructuring, sales in China increased by 30% YoY in Q2 2025, with expectations for double-digit growth into Q3 2025 [4] - **LG Household & Health Care (LGHH)**: Focus on profit led to over a 10% sales decline in China and a 30% drop in travel retail in H1 2025 [4] - **Giant Biogene**: Expected 21% sales growth in H2 2025 for Comfy and 33% for Collgene, with strong performance anticipated during the 11.11 shopping event [4] - **Proya**: Sales trends remain weak in Q3 2025, with potential for growth momentum in 2026 [4] 11.11 Shopping Event Insights - **Promotions**: Tmall's event began on October 15, 2025, with a notable reduction in overall promotions compared to previous years [3][4] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Most leading brands' flagship products showed similar or slightly higher ASP year-over-year [3] Market Risks and Future Outlook - **Risks**: The industry faces risks related to over-reliance on large promotions and macroeconomic weaknesses [2] - **Price Competition**: Expected to moderate somewhat, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing strategies [2] Additional Insights - **Korean Cosmetics**: Travel retail for Korean cosmetics shipped to China is estimated to have declined by 25-30% in the first half of 2025 [2] - **Channel Overhaul**: The necessary channel overhaul for China's beauty market appears to have concluded, with travel retail dropping to approximately 50% and 60% of their respective peaks in 2021 [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the beauty and cosmetics industry in China, highlighting market performance, brand-specific insights, and future outlooks.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Event**: National Day Holiday 2025 Key Points General Demand Trends - Holiday retail sales growth was +2.7% year-over-year (yoy) during the Golden Week (Oct 1-7), which is a deceleration compared to the 3.4% yoy growth in August [2][12] - Per capita travel spending remained largely flat yoy despite an additional day of holiday, indicating a lack of imminent overall demand recovery [1][12] Domestic Travel Insights - The number of domestic travelers increased by +16.1% yoy during Golden Week, with tourism revenue up +15.4% yoy, translating to Rmb101 billion daily [3][14] - Daily spending per traveler was Rmb911, which is a slight decline of -0.6% yoy, but the gap compared to 2019 has narrowed [3][14] Hotel Industry Performance - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel industry showed low-single-digit positive growth yoy, driven by an increase in average daily rate (ADR) [4][12] Outbound Travel - Daily average visitors for both outbound and inbound travel grew by +11.5% yoy [4][12] Hainan Duty-Free Market - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached Rmb944 million during the holiday, with a daily average of Rmb118 million, marking a +5% yoy increase [6][12] - Daily per capita spending was Rmb7.7K, up +8% yoy, although this level is still 44% lower than the peak in 2021 [6][12] Box Office Revenue - Box office revenue was reported at Rmb1.8 billion, with a daily revenue decline of -25% yoy [7][12] Consumption Shifts - Consumption patterns are shifting towards travel, impacting traditional gathering and gifting demand, particularly affecting liquor and liquid milk sales [11][12] Stock Implications - The company remains selective on consumer stocks due to mixed underlying momentum across categories, with preferences for growth stocks like Pop Mart and Giant Biogene, turnaround stocks like Shenzhou and Yili, and balanced return/value stocks like YUMC and ANTA [12][12] Additional Insights - The overall demand recovery appears to be sluggish, with travel intentions not translating into proportional spending, indicating potential risks for consumer stocks [1][12] - The performance of retail and restaurant sectors during the holiday was uneven, with tourist destination stores benefiting while residential and office area stores suffered [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Cosmetics Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the cosmetics industry in China, particularly the upcoming Double 11 Shopping Festival, which runs from October 9 to November 14, 2025. This event is expected to account for over 60% of the fourth quarter's online Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and approximately 20% of the full year's GMV based on historical averages [1][2]. Growth Expectations - **GMV Growth Targets**: - Taobao/Tmall and Douyin are targeting year-over-year GMV growth of 20-25% and over 40%, respectively. The cosmetics segment is expected to grow at a slower rate of around 20% for Taobao/Tmall and approximately 30% for Douyin [2][12]. - Actual sales growth may exceed expectations due to a decline in return rates, with Tmall's return rate expected to drop from 15-20% last year to below 15%, and Douyin's from 35-40% to about 25% [2][15]. Promotional Strategies - **Extended Promotion Period**: - The Double 11 event will be the longest ever, lasting 31-57 days compared to 29-35 days last year. Douyin, JD, and Tmall have extended their promotion periods by 22, 8, and 2 days, respectively [3][14]. - **Discount Mechanisms**: - Platforms will focus on instant discounts (e.g., 15% off for all products) rather than spend-based discounts, leading to lower final purchase prices [3][15]. Brand Performance Insights - **Local Brands**: - Local brands such as KANS and Shanghai Jahwa are expected to outperform, with Jahwa's Herborist brand potentially achieving triple-digit growth off a low base [5][17]. - MAOGEPING is projected to deliver 40-50% growth, supported by a strong product matrix and omni-channel strategy [17]. - **MNC Brands**: - Premium multinational brands like Lancome and Estee Lauder are expected to maintain solid growth of 10-30%, while mass brands such as L'Oreal Paris and Olay may struggle with growth rates below 10% [5][17]. Market Dynamics - **KOL Influence**: - Top-tier Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) are losing market share to mid and lower-tier KOLs, who are offering better terms to brands. The expert noted that top-tier KOLs are setting lower targets for livestreaming [7][15]. - **Merchant Support**: - Tmall/Taobao is expected to favor multinational corporations (MNCs) due to its focus on 88VIP users, while Douyin allocates traffic based on brands demonstrating high incremental growth [6][15]. Conclusion - The upcoming Double 11 Shopping Festival is poised to be a significant event for the cosmetics industry in China, with expectations of strong growth driven by extended promotional periods, aggressive pricing strategies, and a shift in KOL dynamics. Local brands are likely to outperform their multinational counterparts, reflecting changing consumer preferences and market conditions [1][5][17].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Consumer** sector, focusing on consumption trends and market dynamics in **2Q25** and the outlook for **2H25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumption Trends**: - Demand softened in **2Q25**, with unexciting demand continuing into **3Q25**. Some categories like restaurants, sportswear, prepared food, and spirits showed minor sequential improvements in August, attributed to normalizing policy impacts [1][2]. - Companies maintain a prudent outlook due to demand uncertainty, with expectations for significant demand-side stimulus being unlikely in the near term [1]. 2. **Pricing Dynamics**: - There are downside risks to pricing in categories such as sportswear and spirits due to demand softness. The restaurant sector is experiencing intensified pricing activities driven by food delivery subsidies and market education on new categories [1][2]. 3. **Structural Growth Opportunities**: - Continued demand for experience-based consumption, particularly in IP retailers, freshly made drinks, and pet foods [2]. - Opportunities for category expansion and penetration in beverages, cosmetics, and pet foods, with companies like Laopu experiencing upward brand cycles [2]. - Overseas expansion remains a growth opportunity, especially in home appliances, despite demand uncertainties [2]. - Lower-tier cities present untapped potential for various categories [2]. 4. **Sector Preferences**: - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, beverages, and pet food. Least preferred sectors are apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, and non-super-premium spirits [3][8]. 5. **Stock Recommendations**: - Buy recommendations include companies like Anta, Eastroc, Midea, and WH Group, while jewelry has been upgraded to Neutral due to stabilized sentiment [8]. 6. **Market Sentiment**: - The market is showing interest in turnaround themes, with shareholder returns supporting stock prices [2]. Additional Important Content - The macroeconomic environment remains resilient, but consumption-related indicators are muted. The GS macro team anticipates limited significant demand-side stimulus due to the stable GDP numbers [1][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among companies, with stronger brands gaining market share while weaker ones struggle [9]. - The conference call also touches on the impact of policy changes, including temporary interest and childbirth subsidies, which may influence consumer behavior [1]. Conclusion - The China Consumer sector is navigating a challenging landscape with softer demand and pricing pressures. However, structural growth opportunities and strategic sector preferences present potential investment avenues. The outlook remains cautious, with companies focusing on prudent strategies to manage uncertainties in demand and pricing.