Summary of Mobile Gaming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global mobile gaming market is projected to see a year-over-year (YoY) decline of 3% in January 2026 according to Sensor Tower data [1] - The United States remains the largest market, accounting for 31% of total revenue, followed by China at 19% and Japan at 13% [1] - In January 2026, the U.S. mobile gaming market experienced a YoY decline of 2%, while China and Japan saw more significant declines of 14% and 8%, respectively [1] China Market Insights - The domestic gaming market in China is expected to achieve a YoY revenue growth of 8% in 2025, with mobile gaming being the largest segment, contributing 73% of total revenue [1] - The client-based gaming segment is also showing strong growth, with a projected YoY increase of 15%, while mobile gaming is expected to grow at 8% YoY [1] - Chinese game exports are anticipated to continue their high growth trajectory, with a YoY revenue increase of 10% [1] Regulatory Environment - In January, the National Press and Publication Administration issued 177 new domestic online game licenses, representing a YoY increase of 44%, indicating a robust supply of new games in the future [2] Market Performance - In January, most gaming stocks saw an increase, with notable gains in Hong Kong stocks such as Bilibili and Xindong, as well as A-share companies like Huatuo, Perfect World, Kaiying, and Sanqi [2] Data Highlights - Bilibili's new game "Dudu Face Prank" launched in Q4 2025 has shown significant revenue growth, with a QoQ increase of 21% in December and 46% in January 2026, contributing to an overall QoQ revenue increase of 5% and 14% [2] - Xindong's game "Xindong Town" launched in January 2026 has seen an extraordinary QoQ revenue increase of 516%, significantly boosting overall revenue by 99% [2] - Huatuo's overall revenue continues to grow YoY, with its game "Delicious Journey" showing a QoQ revenue increase of 30% and 33% in December and January, respectively [2] - Giant's core product "Supernatural Action Team" recorded a QoQ revenue increase of 41% in January 2026, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 28% QoQ and 199% YoY [2] Future Outlook - Attention is recommended on the testing phases of new games from NetEase ("Sea of Forgetting") and Perfect World ("Different Ring"), as well as monitoring revenue performance during the Spring Festival period [3]

What happened: XD launched 'TapTap Create', an AI game creation tool, on January 30, 2026, with XD chairman Mr. Huang live-streaming about the product launch himself. XD positioned the tool as a core 'AI Game Creation Agent', and the key objective is to break down the technical barriers of game creation, enabling average users with no programming or art background to transform their creative ideas into playable games. 'TapTap Create' is not a traditional game engine but rather a platform that utilizes natur ...

Summary of Key Takeaways from China Internet Tour Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Internet - **Key Focus Areas**: AI, Cloud, Macro Environment, Competition, Regulation Core Insights 1. **Ecommerce Growth**: Soft consumption sentiment has negatively impacted ecommerce growth in the second half of Q4 2025, with expectations of continued muted macro conditions into 2026 [1][14] 2. **Regulatory Impact**: Tightening regulations and the implementation of ecommerce VAT are expected to affect the profitability of smaller merchants, which will, in turn, weigh on ecommerce platform monetization and margins [1][15] 3. **AI Cloud Demand**: Demand for AI cloud services remains robust, although supply constraints may gradually ease due to advancements in domestic chip production and selective approvals of high-end foreign chips [1][14] 4. **Competitive Landscape**: The competition in food delivery, quick commerce, and AI chatbots is intense, with increased promotional spending likely to further pressure profitability and margins [1][14] 5. **International Expansion**: Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets for robotaxi services, AI applications, and IDC buildout, moving beyond previous focuses on gaming and cross-border commerce [1] Company-Specific Highlights Alibaba (BABA) 1. **GMV Growth Pressure**: Macro conditions and a high base have pressured GMV growth, alongside a lapse of 0.6% fee/QZT benefit [2] 2. **Strategic Investments**: Management reiterated commitment to strategic investments in food delivery and quick commerce, aiming to increase volume and GMV market share in 2026 [2] 3. **Cloud Revenue Growth**: Strong demand for cloud infrastructure is expected to sustain high growth levels with stable margins [2] 4. **AI Integration**: Progress in user penetration of Qwen-Max-3 and future integration with Taobao and other Alibaba ecosystem components were highlighted [2] JD.com (JD) 1. **Macro Softness**: Similar to Alibaba, JD management noted macro softness and a high base affecting trade-in programs, with expectations of recovery in 2026 [3] 2. **Food Delivery Investment**: Continued investment in food delivery is seen as crucial for user growth and cross-selling synergies [3] 3. **General Merchandise Demand**: Despite macro challenges, demand for general merchandise remains solid, with growth momentum expected to continue into 2026 [3] Baidu 1. **AI and Cloud Demand**: Management emphasized strong demand for AI and cloud services, with AI-related revenues accounting for 40% of total core revenues in Q3 2025 [7] 2. **Spin-off Plans**: Commitment to improving disclosure of AI-related metrics and enhancing shareholder returns through the proposed spin-off of Kunlunxin was reiterated [7] Didi 1. **Volume Growth**: Management expects to maintain over 8% volume growth in China for 2026 despite macro headwinds [8] 2. **International Expansion**: Didi is committed to becoming a sustainable second player in Brazil, with significant investments in food delivery [8] Trip.com (TCOM) 1. **Travel Booking Performance**: Travel booking volume remained decent during New Year 2026, with expectations for hotel ADR stabilization [9] Full Truck Alliance (YMM) 1. **Order Volume Growth**: Anticipated slowdown in order volume growth to 12% in Q4 2025, with recovery expected in 2026 [10] Kanzhun 1. **Recruitment Recovery**: Continued recovery in recruitment sentiment, particularly in sectors like internet and healthcare, with growth momentum expected to sustain into 2026 [12] Bilibili (BILI) 1. **Ad Performance**: Advertising performance is on track, with expectations for decent momentum into 2026 driven by performance ads [13] Additional Insights 1. **Ecommerce VAT Impact**: JD.com is expected to be least affected by ecommerce VAT due to its large proportion of sales from 1P and large brands, while PDD and Kuaishou may face greater challenges [15] 2. **Investment Commitments**: Both Alibaba and JD are committed to high levels of investment spending, which may pressure profitability in 2026 [15] 3. **AI Competition**: The competition in AI infrastructure and models is intensifying, with Baidu's neutral position and Kunlun's compatibility with CUDA seen as advantages [14][15] Conclusion - The China internet sector is facing challenges from macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes, but there are opportunities in AI and cloud services. Companies are focusing on strategic investments and international expansion to navigate these challenges and drive growth into 2026 [14]

Group 1: Hong Kong Property Market - The residential property market in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, with home prices increasing by 0.14% in August, reducing the year-to-date decline to 0.24% [2] - Cumulative price growth since April stands at 1.26%, with transaction volumes remaining above 5,000 for six consecutive months, totaling 5,291 units sold in August, a nearly 45% year-on-year increase [2] - Analysts forecast a 13% rise in residential transactions to 64,000 units this year, with property prices expected to increase between 3% and 5% [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 1% to 26,113.71, driven by strong performance in the technology sector, with the Hang Seng Tech Index also gaining 1% [3] - Major technology firms such as Alibaba, Tencent, Trip.com, and NetEase experienced significant stock price increases, reflecting growing market confidence in a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [3] Group 3: Jardine Matheson Holdings - Jardine Matheson Holdings, a diversified conglomerate with operations in property, retail, hotels, and financial services, is facing challenges due to the ongoing economic downturn in Hong Kong [4] - The current economic environment is testing the historical stability of Jardine Matheson, highlighting the broader impact of the downturn on established market players [4] Group 4: Commodities Market - Silver (XAG/USD) reached a record high near $57.60, influenced by a Comex outage and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver is at 73.47, indicating overbought conditions that may lead to a period of consolidation before further gains [5] Group 5: British Pound - The British Pound (GBP/USD) remained steady around 1.3250 as traders assessed the implications of the UK's Autumn Budget, with limited downside movement expected due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [7] - The UK budget relief and revised growth forecasts for 2025 could support the Pound, although lower growth is expected in 2026, leading to potential tax hikes to address public finance shortfalls [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the **China & Hong Kong equity market** with a specific outlook for **2026** and investment strategies for **1Q26** [2][5]. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Constructive Stance on MXCN/CSI300**: The report maintains a positive outlook on MXCN and CSI300, predicting further rallies in 2026 with targets set at **100** for MXCN, **5,200** for CSI300, and **16,000** for MXHK, based on consensus EPS estimates [2][7][9]. 2. **Investment Themes for 2026**: - **Anti-involution**: Expected to accelerate post-March NPC, improving margins and ROE for MXCN/CSI300 [5]. - **AI Infrastructure Growth**: Strong global capex in AI is anticipated to boost demand for computing power and localization plays in China [5]. - **Global Macro Support**: Positive macroeconomic conditions, including easing fiscal and monetary policies in developed markets, are expected to enhance overseas sales [5]. - **K-shaped Recovery in Consumption**: This will favor food & beverage and premium luxury sectors while negatively impacting mid-tier consumption [5]. 3. **Risks Identified**: - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly ahead of the US mid-term elections, and rising tensions with Japan [5]. - **Consensus EPS Growth Concerns**: Potential downward revisions in consensus EPS growth for MXCN from approximately **15%** to **9%** due to intense competition in quick commerce platforms [5]. - **Property Market Weakness**: Reports of declining luxury sales and price drops in mainland China may trigger policy changes [5]. Sector Recommendations and Top Picks 1. **Under-owned China Equity**: The report suggests that China equity is under-owned both domestically and internationally, indicating potential for increased allocation [6]. 2. **Sector Preferences**: - **Overweight (OW)**: Communication Services, IT, Materials, and Staples. - **Underweight (UW)**: Energy and Utilities [6][12]. 3. **Top Picks for 1Q26**: - **China**: Baidu, NetEase, Midea, MIXUE, PDD, Pop Mart, Trip.com, Tingyi, Futu, Innovent, CATL, COLI. - **Hong Kong**: AIA, HKEX, Futu, Galaxy, MGM China, Techtronic, Link REITs, MTR, China State Construction International [6][13][15]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Valuation Normalization**: Since September 2024, MXCN/CSI300 has shown a return of **29%/30%** in USD terms, indicating a shift from a valuation discount to a more favorable investment narrative [20]. - **EPS Recovery**: The report highlights a broadening recovery in earnings across various sectors despite weak headline EPS growth, with significant recoveries noted in Healthcare, IT, and Communication Services [41][42]. - **Quantitative Macro Indicator (QMI)**: The JPM China QMI indicates an expansion phase, suggesting positive momentum in the market [47]. Conclusion The report presents a comprehensive outlook for the China and Hong Kong equity markets, emphasizing potential growth areas, sector preferences, and the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks and market dynamics as 2026 approaches.

Economic Indicators - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119K in September, surpassing expectations of 53K, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a nearly 4-year high, compared to expectations of no change at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly earnings in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively [1] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 59.0% probability of no rate change and a 41.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with Nvidia (NVDA) down over 3% and Tesla (TSLA) down more than 2% [2] - Micron Technology (MU) fell over 10%, leading losses in the Nasdaq 100, while Jacobs Solutions (J) dropped over 10% after disappointing earnings [2] - Walmart (WMT) rose more than 6% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising its full-year guidance [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential for interest rate cuts as the labor market weakens, suggesting a modestly restrictive monetary policy [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that rate cuts could prolong above-target inflation and increase financial stability risks [4] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about approving another rate cut next month, emphasizing the need for careful monetary policy [4] International Market Trends - Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 1.70%, reflecting declines in Asian and U.S. markets, with technology stocks particularly affected [8] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower, driven by weakness in the technology sector amid fears of an AI bubble [12] - China's Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant drop, marking its largest weekly decline since late December [11] Corporate Developments - Ubisoft (UBI.FP) surged over 10% after reporting strong FQ2 net bookings and announcing plans to reduce debt [8] - Intuit (INTU) rose over 3% in pre-market trading following stronger-than-expected FQ1 results [15] - The Gap (GAP) climbed more than 4% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising its sales growth forecast [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Online Entertainment Sector - **Performance**: Online entertainment has been a significant outperformer year-to-date (YTD) within the China internet sector, driven by robust consumer spending on leisure and favorable investor positioning amid macro uncertainties [2][8] Core Insights - **Earnings Season Expectations**: A mixed Q325 earnings season is anticipated for online entertainment, with potential positive surprises from companies like Bilibili and Kuaishou. NetEase is favored for its revival in evergreen titles and upcoming launches [2][3] - **Gaming Sector Divergence**: Following a strong YTD performance in online gaming, divergence is expected as new game launches from A-share companies are priced in. Preference remains for ADR/H game companies based on new game catalysts and healthy evergreen title portfolios [3][9] - **Advertising Sector**: Slight acceleration in Q3 ad performance is noted, with uncertainty around new tax policies. Companies like Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are expected to outperform due to improvements in adtech and monetization [4][9] - **Media Sector**: Overall quiet results are expected for the online media sector, with a positive outlook on long-form video (LFV) regulation, although its impact may take time to materialize [5][20] Company-Specific Insights - **Bilibili**: - Price target raised to US$37.00 from US$30.00, reflecting a 23.3% increase. The company is expected to benefit from the successful launch of "Escape From Duckrov," which had a peak of 222k concurrent players on Steam [3][14][17] - Q325 estimates remain unchanged, but Q425 game revenue is raised by 5% due to better-than-expected contributions from new titles [13][17] - **NetEase**: - Expected solid Q325 results with game acceleration, particularly with the upcoming global launch of "Where Winds Meet" on November 15 [3][9][10] - **Kuaishou**: - Positive outlook based on fundamental outperformance and AI capabilities, with key focuses on ad revenue guidance and e-commerce outlook [9][10] - **iQiyi**: - Q325 topline expected to be flat QoQ, with ad revenue projected to decline by 3% due to macro conditions. Adjusted net profit estimates lowered by 17-25% [19][20] - **Weibo**: - Negative revisions expected due to slower consumption trends, although limited valuation downside is noted with a projected 8% dividend yield [9][10] Additional Insights - **Short Dramas Growth**: The growth momentum of short dramas is expected to continue, driven by consumer demand for fragmented video content and a flexible business model compared to LFV [8] - **Regulatory Environment**: The recent LFV regulation is seen as a major positive for iQiyi, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][20] Financial Metrics - **Bilibili's Financials**: - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q4 expected to be Rmb862 million, with a margin of 10.4% [13][17] - Total revenues for FY2025 estimated at Rmb30.285 billion, with a YoY growth of 12.9% [17][18] - **iQiyi's Financials**: - Expected non-GAAP operating loss of Rmb25 million for Q325, with a net loss of Rmb135 million [19][20] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and expectations for the online entertainment sector and specific companies within it.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Internet - **Key Focus**: AI plays, cloud infrastructure, food delivery, quick commerce, and e-commerce competitive landscape Core Insights 1. **Investor Sentiment Shift**: There has been a notable shift in investor sentiment towards owning China equities, particularly in the AI sector within the China Internet industry, compared to previous concerns over tariffs [1][2] 2. **Key Companies Discussed**: Major companies of interest included Alibaba (BABA), Tencent, Sea Ltd, TME, Grab, Baidu, Meituan, PDD, NTES, JD, Kuaishou, and YMM, with a significant focus on Alibaba and Tencent [1][2] 3. **Earnings Expectations**: Investors are anticipating solid earnings from Tencent, with discussions centered on its AI strategy and cloud infrastructure positioning [2] 4. **Sea Ltd's Performance**: There is concern regarding Sea's recent share price weakness, with investors focusing on upcoming earnings and the competitive landscape affecting Shopee margins [2] 5. **Grab's Management Confidence**: Growing investor interest in Grab is attributed to increased confidence in management execution and market potential [2] 6. **Meituan's Positioning**: Positioning in Meituan appears to be lower than before, with selective interest in PDD [2] 7. **Concerns for Trip.com Group (TCOM)**: While investors remain positive on TCOM's fundamentals, there are rising concerns about limited margin upside and potential threats from AI [2] 8. **AI Impact on Gaming**: Discussions around NetEase (NTES) focused on how AI is benefiting the gaming industry [2] 9. **Baidu and Kuaishou**: Conversations primarily revolved around AI, cloud services, and valuation metrics [2] 10. **JD.com**: Comments on JD were mainly about operational catalysts and competition [2] 11. **Didi Global Interest**: There is interest in Didi Global related to autonomous driving and the competitive landscape in Brazil [2] Additional Insights - **Macro Factors**: Investors are also interested in macroeconomic factors such as consumption sentiment, regulatory environment, and potential stimulus measures in China [1] - **Competitive Landscape**: The competition in food delivery and quick commerce in China is a significant topic of discussion, particularly regarding its impact on margins [1] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the China Internet sector and investor sentiment towards various companies within this space.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China online entertainment industry**, focusing on mobile gaming, online video, and online music sectors. Mobile Gaming Insights - **Overall Market Performance**: Q3 2025 saw a **4% YoY decline** in mobile game grossing due to a high base in 2024, but a **2% QoQ increase**. This is softer than typical Q3 vs Q2 seasonality, attributed to fewer new launches in summer compared to previous years [2][10]. - **Key Players**: - **Tencent**: Achieved a **9% QoQ growth** in grossing, driven by strong performance from **Delta Force** (estimated **Rmb1.5 billion** in September). Other stable titles include **Honor of Kings**, **Peacekeeper Elite**, and **DNF Mobile** [2][9]. - **NetEase**: Reported a **5% QoQ growth** in mobile grossing, with notable contributions from **Eggy Party** and **Where Winds Meet**, although this was partially offset by declines in **Sword of Justice** and **Identity V**. It is noted that only about **40%** of NetEase's reported mobile revenue is tracked, indicating potential revenue from non-app store channels [2][6]. - **Bilibili**: Launched **Escape From Duckrov**, achieving a peak of **222,000 concurrent players**, ranking it as the **5 most played game globally on Steam** [2][6]. Online Video Sector - **Kuaishou** launched **Kling 2.5 Turbo**, which is now the **1** in text-to-video and image-to-video generation, maintaining a cost advantage over competitors like Google's Veo 3 [3][4]. - **iQiyi**: Experienced a **10% MoM/YoY decline** in MAUs but is expected to see low-single-digit QoQ growth in membership revenue for Q3, aided by summer traffic improvements [3][4]. - **Tencent Video** and **Youku** have seen some recent successes with new content releases, while **Mango TV** maintained flat MAUs YoY [3][4]. Online Music Trends - The online music industry saw a **2% YoY increase** in MAUs, but time spent remained stable. **TME** (Tencent Music Entertainment) reported a **7% decline** in combined MAUs, with QQ Music and Kugou Music showing significant drops [6][7]. - **NetEase Cloud Music** showed a slight recovery with a **2% YoY increase** in MAUs, while **Soda Music** outperformed with a **91% YoY increase** in MAUs, likely benefiting from ByteDance's traffic [6][7]. Future Content Pipeline - Upcoming major content releases include titles from **Tencent Video**, **iQiyi**, **Youku**, and **Mango TV**, with several anticipated to launch in late October and throughout November and December [7][8]. Investment Outlook - The report remains positive on the online entertainment sector, citing: 1. Healthy consumer spending on leisure activities. 2. Supply-side improvements due to a more favorable regulatory environment and innovations in business models [4][5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in content production and the potential for new business models to drive growth in the online entertainment sector [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the online entertainment industry in China.

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has reached a new three-year high, driven by increased expectations for AI spending, which is now projected to exceed the previous target of $53 billion over the next three years [1][5][6]. Company Developments - Alibaba plans to integrate Nvidia's AI development tools into its cloud software platform, which is expected to enhance its AI capabilities [2][6]. - The company is also developing its own chip, contributing to a significant stock price increase of over 45% in the past month [4][5]. - Alibaba's cloud division is set to launch its first data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, expanding its global infrastructure [5][6]. Market Impact - Alibaba's stock surged by 9.5% in Hong Kong trading, positively affecting other Chinese tech stocks such as JD.com and Pinduoduo, which also saw gains [2][3][7]. - The total capital expenditure on AI infrastructure and services from major Chinese tech companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, BYD, and JD, is projected to exceed $32 billion this year [8][9]. Industry Trends - Global investment in AI is anticipated to reach $4 trillion, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the sector [6]. - Chinese tech stocks are experiencing a rally, with many hitting 10-year highs and outperforming US equities [9].