2028 年全球情报危机 --- THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS substack.com/home/post/p-188821754 Substack Preface 序言 What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 倘若我们对人工智能的乐观情绪持续正确 …… 而这种 " 正确 " 本身反而预示着悲观前景，又当如 何？ What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong positive outlook for the fintech sector, with significant growth in venture capital (VC) activity and deal values, suggesting a favorable investment environment for 2026. Core Insights - Fintech VC deal value surged in Q4 2025 to $17.3 billion, a 114.3% year-over-year increase, bringing the full-year total to $42.8 billion, the highest since 2022 [9][11] - Median fintech deal sizes increased across all stages in 2025, reflecting a shift toward larger rounds and higher capital concentration, driven by AI premiums [9][12] - B2C fintech drove Q4 megadeals, while enterprise fintech is expected to dominate investor attention in 2026 [9][13] - Exit activity reached its highest level since 2021, with $67.6 billion in total value, indicating a robust IPO and deal pipeline for 2026 [9][21] Fintech Landscape - The fintech landscape includes various segments such as alternative lending, capital markets, commercial finance, payments, and wealthtech [7] Quarterly Analysis - VC funding for fintech companies was robust in Q4 2025, with a total deal value of $17.3 billion, up 86.7% quarter-over-quarter and 114.3% year-over-year [11] - The overall median deal size in 2025 was $6 million, up 25.4% from 2024, with significant increases across all stages [12] - Enterprise fintech captured 58.3% of total fintech VC deal value in 2025, while B2C fintech saw larger deals in Q4 2025 [13] Thematic Updates - Stablecoin adoption is expected to grow significantly in 2026, with a market cap increase of 45.9% year-over-year to $299 billion [34][35] - Tokenization of real-world assets is accelerating, with major financial institutions adopting blockchain technologies for efficiency [38][39] - Prediction markets are emerging as a significant financial asset class, with weekly volumes surpassing $5 billion [45][46] Fintech VC Deal Summary - In 2025, the top fintech segments by VC deal value were credit & banking ($8.5 billion), wealthtech ($8.3 billion), and payments ($6.5 billion) [19] - Notable Q4 deals included Revolut's $3 billion round and Polymarket's $2 billion Series D [20] VC Exits - In 2025, disclosed VC exit value rose 272.2% year-over-year to $67.6 billion, with a significant number of public listings contributing to this increase [21][28] - Key acquisitions in Q4 included Xero's $2.5 billion acquisition of Melio and Ripple's $1.3 billion acquisition of Hidden Road [24][63]

TMTB（TMTBREAKOUT）发布的付费日终总结报告，日期为2026年2月24日，核心内容是分析当天科技股（特别 是互联网和软件板块）因一篇名为"Citrini"的文章引发的市场抛售，并探讨其背后的深层逻辑和市场趋势变化。 以下是详细内容总结： 一、 当日市场表现概览 整体走势：以科技股为主的QQQ指数下跌1.22%。 市场呈现显著分化： 下跌板块：互联网 TMTB（TMTBREAKOUT）发布的付费日终总结报告，日期为2026年2月24日，核心内容是分析当天科技股（特别 是互联网和软件板块）因一篇名为"Citrini"的文章引发的市场抛售，并探讨其背后的深层逻辑和市场趋势变化。 以下是详细内容总结： 一、 当日市场表现概览 整体走势：以科技股为主的QQQ指数下跌1.22%。 市场呈现显著分化： 下跌板块：互联网和软件股普遍遭抛售，是市场主要拖累。 上涨/抗跌板块：半导体板块再次跑赢大盘；电信、网络设备等板块也有上涨。 直接催化剂：一篇由知名Substack作者"Citrini"发布的文章，引发了市场恐慌性抛售，被称为"Citrini抛售"。 报告认为，该文章将科技圈内已有的担忧情绪放大并推向了公众视野。 ...

Solel Partners LP initiated a new position in Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM), acquiring 181,700 shares in the fourth quarter for an estimated $14.46 million, according to a February 17, 2026, SEC filing. What happened Solel Partners LP disclosed a new stake of 181,700 shares in Cal-Maine Foods during the fourth quarter, as detailed in its SEC filing dated February 17, 2026. This addition contributed a $14.46 million increase in quarter-end position value. What else to know This is a new position for So ...

Solel Partners LP increased its stake in Braze (NASDAQ:BRZE) by 526,300 shares in the fourth quarter, an estimated $15.59 million trade based on quarterly average pricing, according to a February 17, 2026, SEC filing. What happened According to an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, Solel Partners LP purchased an additional 526,300 shares of Braze in the fourth quarter. The estimated transaction value was $15.59 million, calculated using the average closing price during the quarter. The fund ended the pe ...

Brightstar Lottery delivers technology and services to regulated lottery markets worldwide, backed by strong recurring revenue streams.On February 17, 2026, Solel Partners disclosed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing that it sold 624,800 shares of Brightstar Lottery (BRSL 0.70%) in the fourth quarter, an estimated $10.18 million transaction based on quarterly average pricing.What happenedAccording to a February 17, 2026, SEC filing, Solel Partners LP reduced its stake in Brightstar Lo ...

Core Insights - Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9%, but down 23.4% year over year [1][8] - Total investment income increased by 13.5% year over year to $447.8 million, slightly surpassing consensus estimates by 0.4% [1][8] - The quarterly results were positively impacted by higher net investment income, although elevated expenses partially offset these gains [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted net investment income for Q4 was $184 million, a slight decline of 0.1% year over year [2] - New investment commitments totaled $684 million across 12 new and 17 existing portfolio companies [2] - Total expenses rose by 20.5% year over year to $252.6 million, driven by increased interest expenses and management fees [3] - Adjusted net increase in net assets from operations was $119.1 million, down 23.1% year over year [3] Balance Sheet Overview - As of December 31, 2025, Blue Owl Capital had a cash balance of $558.7 million, up from $505.7 million at the end of 2024 [4] - Total assets increased to $17.2 billion from $13.9 billion at the end of 2024 [4] - Debt rose to $9.3 billion from $7.5 billion as of December 31, 2024, with a net debt to equity ratio of 1.19X [4] Cash Flow and Dividends - Net operating cash flow for 2025 was $1.7 billion, significantly up from $160.2 million in the prior year [5] - The board declared a regular dividend of 37 cents per share for Q1 2026, payable by April 15, 2026 [6] - A new share repurchase program was announced, allowing for the purchase of up to $300 million in shares, with $148 million repurchased in Q4 2025 [6] Full-Year Performance - Total investment income for 2025 reached $1.9 billion, a 15.9% increase year over year [7] - Full-year EPS was $1.24, down 19% from the previous year [7] - Total operating expenses for 2025 grew by 23.1% to $1 billion [7] - New investment commitments for the year amounted to $4.3 billion across 43 new and 81 existing portfolio companies [7]

Core Insights - Capital One (COF) and Synchrony Financial (SYF) are significant players in the consumer finance sector, heavily influenced by consumer credit trends and interest rate environments [1][2] - COF operates as a diversified financial institution, while SYF focuses on private-label and co-branded cards through retailer partnerships [2][3] Capital One (COF) - COF's strength lies in its data-driven, digital-first business model, enhancing customer acquisition and scalable growth [4] - The acquisition of Discover Financial Services for $35.3 billion in May 2025 made COF the largest U.S. credit card issuer by balances [4][5] - COF's inorganic growth strategy includes notable acquisitions like Brex for $5.15 billion, transforming it into a diversified financial services firm [6] - Despite a marginal revenue decline in 2020, COF experienced a five-year CAGR of 13.4% from 2020 to 2025, with positive revenue prospects [7] - COF's net interest income (NII) grew at a CAGR of 13.4% over five years, with NIM expanding to 7.84% in 2025 from 6.63% in 2023 [10] - As of December 31, 2025, COF had total debt of $51 billion and cash equivalents of $57.4 billion, indicating a solid balance sheet [11] - COF restored its quarterly dividend to 80 cents per share in November 2025, following a 75% cut in 2020 [12] - A share repurchase plan of up to $16 billion was authorized in October 2025, reflecting strong earnings and liquidity [13] Synchrony Financial (SYF) - SYF leverages a strong distribution channel to offer a range of products, including private-label credit cards and dual cards [14] - The company has pursued growth through acquisitions and partnerships, including the acquisition of Ally Financial's point-of-sale financing business in 2024 [15][16] - SYF's revenues experienced a five-year CAGR of 5.1% through 2025, driven by strategic partnerships [17] - As of December 31, 2025, SYF had $15 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total borrowings of $15.2 billion [20] - In Q4 2025, SYF returned $952 million through share buybacks and paid $106 million in dividends [21] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COF's revenues implies year-over-year growth of 18.3% for 2026 and 4.6% for 2027, with upward revisions in earnings estimates [22] - SYF's revenue estimates indicate year-over-year growth of 4.2% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, with a projected earnings decline of 1.4% for 2026 [24] - COF shares gained 8.7% over the past year, while SYF shares increased by 13.8%, both underperforming the S&P 500 Index [27] Valuation - COF is trading at a forward P/E of 10.33X, higher than its five-year median of 9.06X, while SYF trades at 7.76X, slightly above its five-year median of 7.45X [29] - COF's premium valuation is justified by its superior growth trajectory compared to SYF [32] Strategic Outlook - SYF's robust liquidity and strong distribution channel contribute to its operational efficiency, though elevated expenses may impact profitability [33] - COF's strategic partnerships and higher credit card demand are expected to support growth, despite potential challenges in profitability margins [34] - Both companies are navigating a volatile macroeconomic environment, with potential caps on credit card interest rates posing risks to interest income [35]

Core Insights - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.68, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%, although it represented a 2.9% decline year over year [1][9] - Total revenues reached $209 million, reflecting a 3.5% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the consensus estimate by 1.6% [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - The growth in total revenues was driven by increased trading volumes in high-grade, high-yield, emerging markets, and Eurobonds [2] - Commission revenues rose 4% year over year to $181.3 million, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $183 million [3] - Information services revenues grew 2% year over year to $13.4 million, falling short of the consensus mark of $14 million [3] - Post-trade services revenues increased by 1% year over year to $11 million, while technology services revenues rose 2% year over year to $3.6 million [3] Expense Analysis - Total expenses amounted to $133.4 million, a 9% increase year over year, primarily due to higher employee compensation, technology, and general administrative costs [4] - The total expenses were lower than the estimate of $137 million [4] Profitability Metrics - MarketAxess' net income surged 42% year over year to $92.4 million, surpassing the estimate of $61 million [4] - The net income margin improved by 1,190 basis points year over year to 44.1% [4] Trading Volumes - High-grade trading volume was $424.6 billion, a 6% increase year over year, but below the consensus estimate of $430.3 billion [5] - High-yield trading volume climbed 15% year over year to $95.7 billion, with an average daily volume (ADV) also rising 15% to $1.5 billion [6] - Emerging markets trading volume increased by 15% year over year to $247.1 billion, with ADV also rising 15% to $4 billion [6] - Total credit trading volume reached $958.5 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, with total credit ADV also rising 11% to $15.4 billion [7] Balance Sheet Overview - As of December 31, 2025, MarketAxess had cash and cash equivalents of $519.7 million, down 4.5% from the end of 2024 [8] - Total assets increased by 1.1% to $1.8 billion compared to the end of 2024 [8] - Outstanding borrowings under the credit facility were $220 million at the end of the fourth quarter [10] Cash Flow and Capital Deployment - Net cash from operations was $158.6 million, a 10% decline year over year, while free cash flow dropped 33.8% to $75.1 million [11] - MarketAxess repurchased shares worth $360 million in 2025 and authorized an additional $400 million in buybacks [12] - The quarterly cash dividend was increased by 2.6% to 78 cents per share, payable on March 4, 2026 [13] Full Year and Future Outlook - For the full year, revenues totaled $846.3 million, a 4% increase from 2024, with adjusted earnings per share rising 2% to $7.39 [14] - The company anticipates service revenues to grow at a mid-single-digit percentage in 2026, with total expenses projected between $530 million and $545 million [15] - MarketAxess targets average annual total revenue growth of 8-9% and an improvement in operating margin of 75-125 basis points over the medium term [16]

Investment Vehicles - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade on major exchanges and can be bought or sold at any time, providing strong investor demand and liquidity [1] - High-yield money market funds aim to generate income while keeping the principal stable and liquid, offering higher interest rates than traditional savings accounts [8][9] - Certificates of deposit (CDs) are considered safe investments but come with liquidity issues and penalties for early withdrawal, typically paying interest quarterly [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE: BIL) is recommended for its 4.12% yield and monthly dividend payments, making it suitable for conservative investors [6][7] - The BlackRock Liquidity Funds - FedFund (BFCXX) is highlighted for its 3.68% yield and daily liquidity, investing primarily in cash and U.S. Treasury securities [13] Economic Context - The Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, benefiting approximately 75 million Americans, with an average monthly increase of about $56 for retirees [5]