格隆汇2月26日｜中金公司发布研报称，受益于积极政策及改革预期、中外流动性宽松周期共振、AI技 术革命与能源革命支撑部分产业需求，市场稳进趋势有望延续。中金公司表示，科技领域仍是资金重点 配置的方向，建议关注AI产业链相关的光通信、云计算基础设施等，应用端建议关注机器人、智能驾 驶、消费电子等。 ...

中金公司发布研报称，受益于积极政策及改革预期、中外流动性宽松周期共振、AI技术革命与能源革 命支撑部分产业需求，市场稳进趋势有望延续。中金公司表示，科技领域仍是资金重点配置的方向，建 议关注AI产业链相关的光通信、云计算基础设施等，应用端建议关注机器人、智能驾驶、消费电子 等。 ...

TMTB（TMTBREAKOUT）发布的付费日终总结报告，日期为2026年2月24日，核心内容是分析当天科技股（特别 是互联网和软件板块）因一篇名为"Citrini"的文章引发的市场抛售，并探讨其背后的深层逻辑和市场趋势变化。 以下是详细内容总结： 一、 当日市场表现概览 整体走势：以科技股为主的QQQ指数下跌1.22%。 市场呈现显著分化： 下跌板块：互联网 TMTB（TMTBREAKOUT）发布的付费日终总结报告，日期为2026年2月24日，核心内容是分析当天科技股（特别 是互联网和软件板块）因一篇名为"Citrini"的文章引发的市场抛售，并探讨其背后的深层逻辑和市场趋势变化。 以下是详细内容总结： 一、 当日市场表现概览 整体走势：以科技股为主的QQQ指数下跌1.22%。 市场呈现显著分化： 下跌板块：互联网和软件股普遍遭抛售，是市场主要拖累。 上涨/抗跌板块：半导体板块再次跑赢大盘；电信、网络设备等板块也有上涨。 直接催化剂：一篇由知名Substack作者"Citrini"发布的文章，引发了市场恐慌性抛售，被称为"Citrini抛售"。 报告认为，该文章将科技圈内已有的担忧情绪放大并推向了公众视野。 ...

【编者按】 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 新形势下，外资投行唱多中国的声音不绝于耳。高盛2026年建议高配A股和港股；摩根大通将中国内地与香港股市评级调升至"超配"；瑞银认 为，政策支持、企业盈利改善及资金流入等因素可能推动A股估值提升。这些判断均反映出国际资本对中国经济转型方向与2026年发展前景的认 同，更预示着冬去春来，全球资本有望流向东方。 智通财经"首席连线"2026年市场展望以《春水向东流》为题，取的也是此意。展望中，"首席连线"工作室将访谈数十位权威经济学家、基金经理 和分析师，请他们谈谈对新一年中国经济的判断，解析投资新机遇。 "从2025年年底机构的预期来看，这是近三年来共识性较强的一年。"近日，嘉实基金股票策略研究总监方晗接受智通财经专访时表示。 据方晗梳理，2026年市场的两大共识相当清晰：一是市场形态——结构性行情仍将延续；二是结构主线——最大的共识依然聚集于AI技术革命。 但在共识背后，他也点出了当前市场需关注的三大核心分歧。 面对2026年的行业配置，方晗则重点看好三条主线：AI扩散、供需改善以及顺周期修复。 驱动市场运行的核心逻辑未变 "无论是当年的' ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolution of the international monetary order and the opportunities it presents for China, as articulated by Dr. Miao Yanliang, a senior strategist at CICC [2][12]. Research Origin - The interest in the international monetary system began in 2005 during a class at Princeton University, where Dr. Miao was encouraged by Professor Peter Kenen, a leading expert in the field [4]. - Dr. Miao's career has been centered around the international monetary order, having worked at the International Monetary Fund and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange [4]. Research Development - In early 2023, Dr. Miao completed a book titled "The Game of Confidence: Modern Central Banks and Macroeconomics," which received positive feedback, prompting him to consider writing another book titled "The Order of Money" [5]. - The rapid changes in the global landscape, including the AI revolution and shifts in U.S. trade policy, have created a unique opportunity for research on the international monetary order [5][14]. Key Observations - In June 2025, Dr. Miao presented at a strategy meeting, stating that the forces driving the reconstruction of the international monetary order are significantly stronger than the basic fundamentals of any single country or market [6]. - He noted that the restructuring is moving towards fragmentation and diversification, with capital returning to its home countries, as evidenced by the decline in Chinese holdings of U.S. stocks from $383 billion to $329 billion [7]. Research Methodology - Dr. Miao's insights are based on extensive research and validation through interactions with central banks and investment institutions, including participation in high-level conferences [9][10]. - He emphasizes the importance of cross-verifying perspectives from academic, market, and policy viewpoints to strengthen his research conclusions [11]. Conclusion on Currency Competition - The article concludes that the highest form of competition among nations is currency competition, which relies on trust supported by economic, financial, institutional, and technological factors [13]. - The article highlights the significance of advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi, especially during strategic windows of opportunity [14][16]. Research Series Overview - The article lists a series of research reports focusing on various aspects of the international monetary system, including the role of the Renminbi, the dynamics of gold pricing, and the implications of de-dollarization [20].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the trends in global asset classes, particularly equities, bonds, and commodities, as well as the implications of AI technology and monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asset Class Performance in 2025** - In 2025, nearly all major asset classes, except oil, experienced growth, driven by liquidity and inflation concerns. Investors shifted wealth from bank deposits to risk assets, particularly precious metals, to preserve purchasing power in a high-inflation environment [3][2][4]. 2. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in the long term to support the government's fiscal needs. In the short term, interest rates may remain unchanged due to persistent inflation and political pressures, with potential aggressive rate cuts anticipated under the new chairperson [4][5]. 3. **Challenges in the U.S. Treasury Market** - The U.S. Treasury market faces significant risks, including the normalization of quantitative easing, rising foreign bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors have led to a reduction in allocations to U.S. dollar assets by sovereign funds, although U.S. Treasuries still hold appeal due to a lack of safer alternatives [5][4]. 4. **Precious Metals Price Trends** - Precious metals prices surged in 2025 but are currently in an overbought state, indicating potential short-term volatility. Factors such as a sudden dollar rebound or changes in Federal Reserve leadership could impact prices. Silver is particularly favored due to its industrial applications and strategic reserve demand [6][7]. 5. **Industrial Demand for Precious and Base Metals** - The industrial properties of precious and base metals are becoming increasingly important, with copper and aluminum also affected by technological advancements. The demand for these metals is expected to grow, driven by their roles in AI and energy sectors [8]. 6. **AI Technology and Investment Risks** - While the AI technology revolution is significant, investment in AI carries risks due to discrepancies between market expectations and actual developments. Financial instability among some AI companies could trigger industry-wide adjustments in 2026-2027 [9]. 7. **K-Shaped Economic Recovery** - The K-shaped recovery trend is expected to deepen, leading to political polarization. A significant portion of U.S. households is facing economic hardship, which could influence future elections and global monetary policies [10][11]. 8. **Investment Recommendations** - There is a preference for A-shares over U.S. equities, with a particular bullish outlook on silver due to its industrial demand. The bond market is viewed as problematic, and oil prices are expected to rise despite uncertainties [14]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Risks and Consensus** - The market faces risks from potential trading crowding, where a small trigger could lead to significant adjustments. High fiscal deficits in countries like the U.S., France, and the U.K. pose serious concerns, with the possibility of a debt crisis in France or the U.K. leading to global financial turmoil [15]. 2. **Long-term Asset Strategy** - In the current inflationary environment, holding cash in banks is deemed unwise. The focus should be on assets that can withstand economic cycles, with a shift towards technology-driven investments and away from central bank-controlled assets [12].

Macro Strategy - The employment report for January indicates a resilient labor market in the US, with better-than-expected unemployment rates and employment data driven by a combination of fiscal and monetary easing, as well as seasonal factors [1][8] - Although the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations by 2.46 times the standard deviation, the structure remains distorted, with 124,000 of the 130,000 new jobs coming from the healthcare sector, indicating a zero growth trend in private employment when excluding healthcare [1][8] - The expectation is for the US economy to continue outperforming in Q1, with a focus on the upcoming core CPI release and the potential warming of market expectations regarding Trump's visit to China in April [1][8] Fixed Income - The report highlights the evolution of bond financing paths for leading tech companies, particularly in the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of a diversified financing system to support tech firms during growth and significant investment phases [2][10] - The analysis of companies like Oracle, Nebius, Alphabet, and Meta illustrates how their bond issuance strategies have evolved alongside their growth stages, showcasing the symbiotic relationship between development and debt issuance [2][10][11] Industry - The report on the smart driving experience in the automotive sector indicates a shift in focus from coverage to experience optimization, with major manufacturers achieving successful implementation of complex urban NOA scenarios [5][13] - The evaluation of six smart driving suppliers shows improvements in their capabilities compared to 2025, with notable advancements in self-developed solutions from companies like Li Auto and XPeng, as well as impressive performances from third-party suppliers [5][13] - The report identifies the growing demand for liquid cooling systems in data centers as a significant driver for valve manufacturers, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East, where urbanization and industrialization are accelerating [6][15] Recommended Stocks - Weilong Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading supplier of water valves, expected to benefit from increased demand in the Middle East due to urbanization and industrialization, with projected net profits of 130 million, 170 million, and 220 million for 2025-2027 [6][15] - China Resources Mixc Life is highlighted for its strong operational capabilities and consistent project delivery, with expected net profits of 3.903 billion, 4.331 billion, and 4.821 billion for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leading position in commercial operations [6][15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing technological revolution and industrial transformation, emphasizing the importance of AI and robotics in reshaping human production and lifestyle. It highlights the need for Chinese tech companies to navigate these changes effectively as they enter a new phase of economic development in 2026, aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][11]. Group 1: Company Philosophy and Strategy - Vivo's founder and CEO, Shen Wei, articulated the company's philosophy of "choosing not to do certain things to achieve meaningful outcomes," emphasizing a user-centric approach as a core organizational capability [1][7]. - Since 2019, Vivo has committed to four key technology areas—design, imaging, systems, and performance—focused on meeting genuine user needs, maintaining significant long-term investments despite industry pressures [2][4]. - The company aims to integrate user experience deeply into its organizational culture, ensuring that innovation is driven by real user needs rather than isolated technological showcases [7][8]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Vivo's recent product, the Vivo Vision exploration version, represents a leap from 2D to 3D imaging technology, enhancing user experience in gaming, entertainment, and office settings [4]. - The X300 series smartphone addresses user pain points in photography, featuring a 200-megapixel telephoto lens and improved all-focus shooting capabilities, allowing users to capture high-quality images easily [2][4]. Group 3: Organizational Development - Vivo is implementing a "7S model" to embed user orientation into its organizational processes, ensuring that all functions prioritize user experience in their decision-making [7][8]. - The company recognizes that understanding user needs is crucial for innovation, and it aims to enhance its organizational capabilities to respond to evolving user expectations [8][9]. Group 4: Future Directions - Vivo is transitioning towards becoming an ecological technology platform by establishing a Robotics Lab and an AIoT smart terminal division, focusing on XR and home robotics [9]. - The company has built a robust ecosystem with nearly 400 supply chain partners, over 25% of whom have been in collaboration for more than ten years, fostering long-term, mutually beneficial relationships that drive technological innovation [9][11].

Group 1 - The core logic driving gold prices remains intact, focusing on asset diversification and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, as well as the expansion of U.S. government debt which complicates the execution of balance sheet reduction [2][5] - The supply-demand balance for cyclical commodities remains tight, and once market volatility decreases and stabilizes, the non-ferrous metals sector may present a more suitable entry point for investors [3][4] - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown strong profitability, with the sector outperforming others in the A-share market over the past three years, indicating a shift in investor perception towards more stable earnings in this sector [4][5] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market were influenced by profit-taking after significant short-term gains and changes in external liquidity expectations, particularly concerns regarding the new Federal Reserve chair's potential hawkish stance [4][5] - The demand for copper is expected to remain robust due to strong global investment in electrical grids and strategic stockpiling plans in both China and the U.S., which supports higher copper prices [4][5] - The chemical industry has shown weak performance over the past two years, with potential for a rebound, but the supply-demand dynamics are not as favorable as those in the non-ferrous sector [6][7]

大成正向回报基金经理张家旺 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 陈燕青 进入2月，A股迎来调整，沪指一度逼近4000点，随后又有所反弹，有色、AI等强势板块一度出现较大 幅度调整。今年以来，周期股整体走势较强。展望后市，大成正向回报基金经理张家旺近日接受记者采 访时表示，周期品的供需紧平衡状态未变，待市场波动率回落并趋于稳定后，有色金属板块或将迎来更 合适的介入窗口。 有色行业盈利良好 张家旺，拥有超9年证券从业经验，2016年7月加入大成基金，曾先后任宏观策略，金融研究员，2020年 任周期行业组长，现任大成正向回报、大成盛享一年持有、大成安享得利六个月持有等基金的基金经 理。 在张家旺看来，近期A股市场波动更多来自两方面因素：一是短期涨幅偏大带来的获利回吐，二是外部 流动性预期的边际变化。"市场一度担忧新任美联储主席可能推进缩表，从而推升强美元与流动性收紧 预期，进而触发此前涨速较快的金、银、铜等金属价格出现明显调整，进而带动市场调整。" "若后续流动性紧张预期得到缓解，例如美联储通过公开表态引导市场预期，风险偏好有望修复。"张家 旺表示。 去年以通信为代表的成长股整体跑赢周期品，周期股方面有色金属走势强劲。展望今 ...