26 年储能年度策略：全球开花，开启两年持续高增新周期 20251216 摘要 全球储能市场蓬勃发展，2025 年装机量预计同比增长五六十个点，达 330-350 吉瓦时，2026 年预计增长 60%-70%，突破 500 吉瓦时，电 芯供应紧张或将持续，大电芯渗透率提升有望维持产业链高盈利。 中国储能市场受益于政策推动和商业模式创新，容量电价政策提升项目 收益率，内蒙古、新疆等地率先增长，预计 2025 年国内大储装机量同 比增长约 50%，2026 年增速或超 60%。 美国市场受 AI 数据中心建设驱动，储能需求强劲，预计 2026 年增速在 50%左右。数据中心低压直流储能方案具有前瞻性，未来渗透率或提升 至 30%-50%。 欧洲储能市场起步较晚但增速迅猛，2025 年装机量预计翻倍增长，新 兴市场如中东、智利、澳大利亚等全面开花，2025 年增速达两倍， 2026 年预计一倍多增长。 工商业储能和户用储能市场短期爆发力强劲，一体化解决方案和易安装 产品更受欢迎。中国和欧洲工商业储能增长潜力巨大，未来几年复合增 速预测在 40%-50%之间。 Q&A 请问您对储能市场的整体策略和未来预期是怎样的？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to achieve a storage shipment target of 40GWh to 50GWh this year and is confident in meeting this goal, with discussions ongoing for next year's shipment targets. The global energy storage market is expected to maintain a high growth rate of approximately 40% to 50% next year due to increasing demand for renewable energy storage, aging overseas grid infrastructure, and policy-driven market demands, particularly in Europe [1]. Group 1 - The company's storage shipment target for this year is set at 40GWh to 50GWh [1] - The company expresses confidence in achieving this shipment target [1] - Next year's shipment targets are still under discussion and planning [1] Group 2 - The global energy storage market is projected to grow at a rate of approximately 40% to 50% next year [1] - Increased demand for renewable energy storage is a key driver of this growth [1] - Aging overseas grid infrastructure necessitates energy storage for safety and stability [1] - Policy changes, such as dynamic pricing in Europe, are expected to spur user-side market demand [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the sales figures of various electric vehicle brands, with notable mentions including Hongmeng Zhixing at approximately 20,000 units, Leap Motor at 12,000 units, and NIO at 10,300 units [1] - The article also provides insights into the performance of specific models, such as the L90 from Leida with around 3,000 units sold, and the overall performance of NIO with 4,300 units [1] - The data indicates a competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market, with various brands vying for market share [1] Group 2 - The article discusses BYD's expansion efforts in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to tap into new markets [4] - It mentions CATL's focus on the energy storage market, which is experiencing growth at a rate higher than that of the power battery sector [4] - The emphasis on balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for main engine manufacturers is also noted, suggesting a trend towards optimizing supply chain efficiency [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the balance between performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [3] - Total sales forecast is approximately 42,000 units, driven by the launch of the new ES8 and the LeDao L90 flagship models [3] - Weekly delivery trends are stable, exceeding 10,000 units, with a target of reaching 12,000 units per week [3] - The production capacity goal is to achieve a monthly sales target of 50,000 units by the fourth quarter [3] Group 2 - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to tap into new markets [6] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing the growth in the power battery sector [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for 德业股份 Company Overview - **Company**: 德业股份 - **Industry**: Energy Storage, specifically focusing on household and commercial storage solutions Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Projections - **Q3 Revenue Expectation**: Projected revenue for Q3 is between 900 million to 1 billion CNY, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth but facing year-on-year pressure due to a high base last year [2][5] - **Q4 Outlook**: October production may remain flat or slightly decrease due to the National Day holiday, with November expected to see an increase, while December may enter a seasonal downturn [2][5] - **2026 Profit Forecast**: Anticipated profit for 2026 is expected to exceed 4 billion CNY, with a growth rate of around 20% [2][6] - **Market Valuation**: The company's valuation is expected to gradually align with its 2026 and 2027 projections, with an optimistic market capitalization outlook [2][6] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - **Market Share**: 德业股份 holds over 40% market share in Southeast Asia, with some countries reaching 50-60%. It also has significant shares in Africa, South Africa, and Pakistan [2][7] - **Core Competencies**: The company’s strengths lie in product quality, channel advantages, and cost control. It leads in low-voltage household storage with rapid product iteration and high customization capabilities [2][12][13] Industry Dynamics - **Global Household Storage Market**: The global household storage market is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 20%, with emerging markets like Africa showing even higher growth rates [2][8] - **Commercial Storage Systems**: Commercial storage systems have higher power and profit margins compared to household systems, with 德业 currently averaging 10,000 units shipped monthly, indicating significant growth potential [2][19] Inventory and Supply Chain - **Inventory Situation**: The household storage industry has seen a significant alleviation of inventory issues, with a notable demand for battery cells, which are currently in short supply [3][15] - **Impact on Orders**: The real demand is expected to be more directly reflected in future orders due to improved inventory conditions [3][15] Regional Market Insights - **Southeast Asia**: Strong export data from countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand, with significant potential in Indonesia's distributed solar projects [9] - **European Market**: Focus on Eastern European countries where demand for low-voltage household storage is high, while Western Europe shows stable growth in commercial storage [10] Future Growth Potential - **Global Market Growth**: Despite low penetration rates, the global household storage market has a potential demand exceeding 100 million units, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for 德业股份 over the next 3 to 5 years [11] - **Financial Expectations**: Conservative estimates for 2025 project revenues of at least 3.3 billion CNY, with potential to reach 4.5 billion CNY in 2026, leading to a market cap exceeding 80 billion CNY [16] Industry Trends - **Commercial Storage Demand**: The commercial storage sector is experiencing healthy growth, with domestic installations expected to increase by 50% in 2025 [17][18] - **Advantages of Commercial vs. Household Storage**: Commercial systems offer significantly higher power and profit margins compared to household systems, indicating a strategic focus for future growth [19] Strategic Initiatives - **Diversification**: The company is also exploring opportunities in IDC and SST product lines, which may not directly impact current valuations but are expected to contribute positively to long-term growth [20][21] Conclusion 德业股份 is positioned for significant growth in the energy storage market, driven by strong financial projections, competitive advantages, and favorable industry dynamics. The company’s strategic focus on emerging markets and commercial storage solutions further enhances its growth potential in the coming years.

Group 1 - The article discusses the various types of services in the new energy sector, highlighting the importance of performance and cost in battery cell procurement by major manufacturers [2][6]. - BYD is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to tap into emerging markets [6]. - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing the growth in the power battery sector, suggesting a shift in focus within the industry [6].

Group 1 - Zhonghang Innovation (03931) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, with a cumulative rise of nearly 40% in the month [1] - As of the latest report, the stock is trading at 31.26 HKD with a transaction volume of 370 million HKD [1] - The company's power battery installation volume has shown strong growth since Q2, reaching 21.8 GWh in the first half of the year, surpassing the market estimate of 19.5 GWh [1] Group 2 - In July, Zhonghang Innovation maintained strong performance with a market share increase to 8.4% [1] - The company has achieved significant growth in its energy storage business, securing new orders in Europe in addition to a diversified domestic customer base [1] - The energy storage business is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with a target of 45 GWh for annual shipments and approximately 70 GWh by next year, alongside an anticipated improvement in profit margins [1] Group 3 - Bank of America Securities reports that the Chinese energy storage market continues to be robust, with domestic bidding scale reaching 26 GW/69 GWh in August, a year-on-year increase of over 500% [2] - The report forecasts stable growth in battery demand in China from 2025 to 2030, with a target capacity of 180 GW for new energy storage installations by 2027 [2] - Zhonghang Innovation, as the leading power battery stock in Hong Kong, is expected to benefit from the trend of order concentration, with projected increases in battery shipment volumes of 9%/14%/17% from 2025 to 2027 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [7] - BYD is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to capture growth in emerging markets [7] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing the growth in the power battery sector, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with total shipments exceeding 300 GWh from January to July 2025, which is 2.1 times that of the same period last year, surpassing initial forecasts [1][2] - The energy structure is shifting from coal and gas to wind and solar, leading to improved economic viability for energy storage solutions [1][4] - The market is expected to maintain long-term growth, driven by new pricing mechanisms that lower marginal costs of basic electricity [1][4] Market Trends and Projections - In Europe, the commercial energy storage ratio is currently low, with expectations for installed capacity to reach 5 GWh by 2025, doubling year-on-year, and potentially reaching 20 GWh by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% [1][7] - The demand for solar plus storage solutions is high in regions with weak grid infrastructure, such as Africa and Latin America, where household storage systems can reduce electricity costs [1][8] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly countries like Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria, shows strong demand for energy storage due to frequent power outages [1][8] Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities include companies expanding into international markets (Europe, Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East), those focusing on technology development, and firms deepening their presence in niche markets [1][5] - Companies like 德业股份 (Deye) and 艾罗能源 (Aero Energy) are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential, particularly in the European market [10][12] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape among energy storage companies is shifting towards product innovation and market expansion, with companies like 德业股份 capturing significant market share in Africa and Latin America [9] - The introduction of new products, such as high-capacity storage systems, is enhancing competitiveness and meeting the growing demand in emerging markets [9][10] Financial Performance and Valuation - Companies in the energy storage sector are showing improved financial performance, with significant revenue growth and profit recovery expected in the second half of 2025 [2][21] - The valuation of leading energy storage companies remains relatively low, attracting investor interest amid high market demand [21][22] Future Outlook - The global energy storage market is projected to exceed 450 GWh in shipments for 2025, with sustained growth driven by both developing and developed countries [24] - The long-term outlook for the energy storage market is optimistic, with expectations for continued demand growth and profitability [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of balancing performance and cost in battery cell procurement for automotive manufacturers [7] - BYD is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to tap into new markets [7] - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing its growth in the power battery sector [7]