人民财讯11月21日电，恩捷股份（002812）在机构调研时表示，公司储能电池客户目前已有部分产品从 干法隔膜切换至湿法隔膜，公司对电池隔膜产业各类技术和动态保持关注，始终致力于为客户提供符合 需求的优质产品。公司目前在手订单充沛，产能利用率较高，同时近期公司的下游客户需求和订单呈现 稳定增长态势，在下游储能需求较为旺盛的基础上，公司2025年出货量有望进一步增长。 ...

| | ☑ | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投 资 者 | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 关系活动类 | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 别 | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | 参 与 单 | | 易方达基金、中信保诚基金、鹏华基金、美银、瑞银、中信建投证券、中信证券等 | | 位名称及人 | 机构 | | | 员姓名 | | | | 时间 | 2025 | 年 11 月 20 日 | | 地点 | | 恩捷股份金桥新能源总部 | | 上 市 公 | | | | 司接待人员 | | 副总经理禹雪、董事会秘书白云飞、投资者关系经理徐晶晶 | | 姓名 | | | | | | 公司就投资者以下问题进行回复： | | | | 1、储能电池使用的隔膜有从干法切去湿法的趋势吗？ | | | | 公司储能电池客户目前已有部分产品从干法隔膜切换至湿法隔膜，公司对电池 | | 投 资 者 | | 隔膜产业各类技术和动态保持关注，始终致力于为客户提供符合需求的优质产品。 | | 关系活动主 | | | | 要内容介绍 | | 谢谢关注！ | | | ...

锂电：涨价周期反转，固态成长开启 20251117 摘要 2023-2024 年锂电行业因原材料价格下跌普遍亏损，仅头部企业盈利。 但随着扩产不及预期，2025-2026 年供需趋于平衡，各环节出现涨价 迹象，材料板块弹性较大，未来仍有上涨空间。 储能需求成为锂电行业主要驱动力，受益于 136 号文、海外降息及 AI 电源配储。储能全生命周期成本接近燃煤发电，技术进步将进一步降低 成本，预计 2027-2028 年储能系统成本显著下降。 短期内（2025-2026 年初）锂电各环节涨价趋势明显，但节奏各异。 2025 年一季度动力电池排产承压，储能需求确定向上，预计明年二季 度储能增长势头更强劲。 中长期来看，未来三至五年内，供需紧张将推动各环节涨价。六氟磷酸 锂和 VC 价格已大幅上涨，表明材料板块弹性较大，未来仍有上涨空间。 湿法隔膜投资回报周期长，龙头企业盈利微薄，主要企业明确表示不再 扩产，预计 2026 年市场供给紧张，单瓶净利润有望上涨至当前利润水 平的 4 到 6 倍。 Q&A 当前锂电产业链的周期性反转和成长趋势是什么？ 别是铁锂，其在国内外市场上的应用比例不断提升，并且具有较高暴露 率，因此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery materials industry is entering a prosperous cycle, driven by favorable supply-side policies and strong demand from the new energy vehicle market and increased energy storage installations [1] Supply Side - Benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, the lithium battery materials have seen significant price increases, indicating a new round of prosperity in the industry [1] - As of November 13, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 131,000 yuan/ton, up approximately 110% from early October, with the highest price exceeding 142,000 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of electrolyte is 25,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,000 yuan/ton or 40% since early October, with a peak price of 29,000 yuan/ton [1] - VC additive prices averaged 87,500 yuan/ton, up 41,000 yuan/ton or about 90% since early October [1] - Lithium iron phosphate averaged 36,900 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan/ton or about 10% since early October [1] - Wet-process separator prices averaged 0.78 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.03 yuan/square meter or about 5% since early October [1] Demand Side - The new energy vehicle sales are performing well, and energy storage installations have significantly increased, contributing to the positive outlook for the lithium battery industry [1] Future Prospects - Solid-state batteries are highlighted for their high energy density and safety advantages, with major battery manufacturers actively investing in the related supply chain [1] - Solid-state batteries are expected to be implemented in vehicles between 2027 and 2030, indicating a promising future for this technology [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to consider the Guotai New Energy ETF (159387), which covers lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind power industries [2] - For those interested in solid-state batteries, the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) closely tracks the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index, with over 40% weight in solid-state battery-related stocks [2]

锂电涨价环节：隔膜板块深度汇报 20251116 摘要 隔膜行业或迎新一轮涨价，已涨价客户或面临第二轮涨价，新价格立即 生效。隔膜产品周期性长，扩产周期较长，预计 2026 年下半年起可能 出现紧缺，价格上行周期或持续至 2027 年。 锂电板块库存周期于 2024 年一季度触底回升，隔膜环节目前处于被动 去库阶段，对应复苏期。若存货拐点向上，则进入主动补库，标志着锂 电行业进入繁荣期。 隔膜产品经历四轮降价后，自 8 月反内卷会议后价格快速反转，上涨约 10%，结束三年通缩周期。目前隔膜行业稼动率有所回升，头部公司如 星源、恩捷等稼动率已接近满产。 干法隔膜增速放缓至 18%，湿法隔膜受益于储能需求增速达 30%。大 电芯趋势及安全性要求提升带动超薄涂布湿法隔膜需求增加，宁德时代 和比亚迪内部也有干法转向湿法趋势。 头部隔膜供应商扩产保守，有效新增产能预计 2027 年或更晚投放市场， 是当前涨价持续性的重要原因。若投资回报率不能恢复至合理水平，难 以支撑新的扩产计划。 当前隔膜行业的稼动率和集中度如何？ 目前隔膜行业稼动率有所回升。在 22 年的时候稼动率已达到 80%，基本满产。 今年以来头部公司的稼动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery materials sector is experiencing a comprehensive price increase, which is expected to significantly enhance the profitability of related companies [2] Group 1: Lithium Battery Materials Price Increases - As of November 13, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 131,000 yuan/ton, up approximately 110% from early October, with a peak price exceeding 142,000 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of electrolyte is 25,700 yuan/ton, having increased by 7,000 yuan/ton (40%) since early October, with a maximum price of 29,000 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of VC additive is 87,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of 41,000 yuan/ton (about 90%) since early October [2] - The average price of lithium iron phosphate is 36,900 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan/ton (about 10%) since early October [2] - The average price of wet-process separators is 0.78 yuan/sq.m, having risen by 0.03 yuan/sq.m (about 5%) since early October [2] Group 2: Energy Storage System Demand - The cumulative bidding scale for domestic energy storage systems reached 166.3 GWh from January to October, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 172% [3] - The average price of 4-hour energy storage systems is 0.52 yuan/Wh, which has increased by 0.06 yuan/Wh month-on-month [3] - New energy storage installations totaled 85.5 GWh from January to October, showing a year-on-year growth of 71% [3] - The total scale of newly registered energy storage projects in October exceeded 128.9 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 224% [3] Group 3: AI Data Center Capital Expenditure - Major internet companies are increasing capital expenditures to meet the explosive demand from AI and cloud computing, with Google raising its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to between 91 billion and 93 billion USD, and Meta increasing it to between 70 billion and 72 billion USD [4] - OpenAI plans to launch the "Stargate" data center in 2026, with a planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an expected investment of over 450 billion USD in the next three years [4] Group 4: Smart Meter Price Recovery - The third round of bidding for smart meters by the State Grid has seen a significant price rebound due to new specifications and changes in pricing standards [5] - The recovery in smart meter prices is expected to improve the profitability and performance elasticity of related companies in the meter industry [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include leading firms in the lithium battery industry such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [2] - In the energy storage sector, key companies include Sungrow Power Supply, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [3] - For AI data center-related investments, companies like Jinpan Technology and others are recommended [4] - In the smart meter sector, companies such as Haixing Electric and others are highlighted [5]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium battery materials sector is experiencing a comprehensive price increase, with significant profit growth expected for related companies. As of November 13, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 131,000 CNY/ton, up approximately 110% from early October, with the highest price exceeding 142,000 CNY/ton [1][66] - The average price of electrolytes increased to 25,700 CNY/ton, a rise of 7,000 CNY/ton or 40% since early October. VC additives also saw an average price increase to 87,500 CNY/ton, up 4,100 CNY/ton or about 90% [1][66] - Companies to watch in the lithium battery sector include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, as their profitability is expected to significantly improve due to rising demand and prices [1][66] Group 2: Energy Storage Systems - The domestic energy storage system bidding has seen a substantial increase, with a cumulative bidding scale of 166.3 GWh from January to October, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 172% [2][90] - The average price for a 4-hour energy storage system has risen to 0.52 CNY/Wh, an increase of 0.06 CNY/Wh from the previous period. New energy storage installations reached 85.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71% [2][90] - Key companies in the energy storage industry include Sungrow Power Supply, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand [2][90] Group 3: AI Data Center Capital Expenditure - Major internet companies are increasing capital expenditures to meet the explosive demand for AI and cloud computing. Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to between 91 billion and 93 billion USD, while Meta increased its guidance to 70 billion to 72 billion USD [3][23] - OpenAI plans to launch the "Stargate" data center in 2026, with a planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an investment of over 450 billion USD in the next three years [3][24] - Companies to focus on in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, New Special Electric, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the increased capital expenditure [3][24] Group 4: Power Equipment Sector - The power equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in domestic equipment delivery and a revival in bidding for high-voltage and smart meters expected by the end of the year [3][35] - The third round of bidding for smart meters by the State Grid has shown a significant rebound in prices, with the total bid amount around 5.53 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 34% but an increase of 18% from the previous round [3][36] - Companies such as Sifang Co., Si Yuan Electric, and others are recommended for investment as they are likely to benefit from the improving market conditions [3][35][36] Group 5: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of the power equipment sector, the progress in green methanol industry layouts, the profit increase from lithium battery material price hikes, the advancement of solid-state battery industrialization, and the global demand for energy storage installations [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The lithium battery materials industry is experiencing continuous demand growth, while supply expansion remains weak, leading to rising prices and profit margins [1][3][4] - The current market for lithium battery materials is at a turning point after a down cycle, with core recommended companies still having comfortable valuations, some even at single-digit valuations [1][5] Key Points on Lithium Battery Materials - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) Pricing**: Current spot price has reached 130,000 CNY/ton, with some companies quoting over 150,000 CNY/ton [1][4] - **Additives and Solvents**: Significant price increases observed for additives like VC and FPC, with a recent surge of 10% in a short period. Solvent prices, particularly for EC, have also risen due to supply constraints [1][4][6] - **Separator Market**: Demand is strong, but high fixed costs and asset-heavy nature lead to intense price competition. Overall profitability in the separator market is currently poor, with high debt levels limiting large-scale expansion [1][7][8] Future Market Dynamics - **Wet Separator Market**: Expected to face tighter supply-demand dynamics by 2025, with thinner 5-micron membranes becoming more prevalent, which will significantly enhance profitability for companies like Enjie, Fuwei, and Xinyuan [1][15] - **Electrolyte Additives and Solvents**: The transition from oversupply to tight supply is evident, with price fluctuations having minimal impact on battery manufacturers, as supply assurance is critical [1][16] Company-Specific Insights - **Tianqi Materials**: As the largest global producer of electrolytes and LiPF6, it is expected to see a significant increase in export volumes by 2026, with profit levels potentially recovering to or exceeding previous cycle highs [2][17] - **Financial Elasticity**: For Tianqi, a price increase of 10,000 CNY/ton for LiPF6 could yield approximately 1.1 billion CNY in after-tax profit. The company is also expected to export over 1 million tons of electrolytes by 2026, a sevenfold increase from 2021 [17] - **Other Companies**: Companies like Huasheng and Haike are benefiting from rising prices of FEC and VC, with significant production capacities in solvents. Multi-Fluor is also performing well due to high prices in the current market environment [18][19] Strategic Partnerships - **Long-term Agreements**: Tianqi's long-term agreements with major clients like CATL are crucial for solidifying its market position and ensuring substantial order volumes, acting as a catalyst for industry growth [20]

Group 1 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing strong performance, with significant stock price increases, including Tianhong Lithium's rise of 29.97% and 40 stocks in the lithium battery concept gaining over 10% [1] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have surged from 49,300 yuan/ton to 151,500 yuan/ton since July 15, marking an increase of over 200%, which has positively impacted stock prices in the lithium battery supply chain [1] Group 2 - The supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate is tight, with leading companies operating at full capacity while many small and medium enterprises struggle to resume production, indicating potential for further price increases [4] - The performance of the lithium battery supply chain is expected to improve, with active production schedules and stabilizing material prices, leading to a recovery in company earnings [3] - New technologies such as solid-state batteries and high-voltage lithium iron phosphate are rapidly developing, prompting downstream automakers and battery manufacturers to accelerate their investments, presenting new investment opportunities [3]

山西证券表示，六氟磷酸锂供给端方面，头部企业虽已满负荷生产，但受制于前几年产能过剩导致的行 业出清，大量中小企业产能难以快速复产，行业整体供应紧张。预计未来六氟磷酸锂产品价格仍有上行 空间，产业链盈利能力有望持续修复，建议关注六氟磷酸锂产业链。 招商证券最新研报指出，产业反馈湿法隔膜主流企业都已满产，三方价格也可以看到，湿法隔膜、涂覆 膜、干法隔膜价格均开始反弹。目前隔膜行业盈利能力处于历史低位，行业前两大公司近两个季度出现 亏损。尽管需求向好，但由于隔膜资产重、扩产周期较大，主流企业扩产意愿低；行业资本开支2023年 以来逐渐下行，后续产能释放有限，2026年供给可能更紧张。 VC等添加剂也是不容忽视的部分。招商证券表示，由于库存紧缺，部分电解液厂、电池厂已开始上门 要货。 公开资料显示，华盛锂电已有1.8万吨添加剂产能，并正在建设3万吨扩产项目；天赐材料在其年报中也 表示，公司自产主要产品的核心关键原材料，包括目前的电解质、添加剂、正极材料前驱体等。 万联证券认为，2025年Q3，新能源汽车销量延续高增长，锂电池产业链整体业绩持续改善。锂电产业 链排产活跃，材料价格逐步企稳回暖，公司业绩呈现回升趋势，盈利 ...