油料日报 | 2025-07-02 花生现货实际交易量不大，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4127.00元/吨，较前日变化-14.00元/吨，幅度-0.34%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+153，较前日变化+14，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘互有涨跌，呈现近弱远强的趋势，其中基准期约收 高0.3%。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌3.50美分到上涨3.50美分不等，其中7月期约下跌3.50美分，报收1024.25美分/蒲 式耳;8月期约下跌3.50美分，报收1029.75美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨2.25美分，报收1027美分/蒲式耳。隔夜美农发 布两份重要报告，种植面积报告及季度库存报告。USDA 将 2025 年美国大豆种植面积调整为 8338 万英亩，低于 3 月的 8349.5 万英亩，也低于分析师约 8365.5 万英亩的平均预估。本次预估的大豆种植面积将较 2024 年的 8705 万英亩减少 4.2%。6 月 1 日的大豆库存总量为 10.08 亿蒲式耳，高于市场预期的 9.8 亿蒲式耳，较去年同期增长 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - CBOT soybean futures have turned lower due to the USDA data indicating an increase in U.S. inventories [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The USDA report shows a rise in U.S. soybean stocks, which has negatively affected market sentiment and led to a decline in futures prices [1]

USDA干旱报告：美国大豆、玉米产区受干旱影响区域比例小幅缩小，对大豆、玉米价格影响如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

软商品日报 2025/06/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a decline, with soybean meal futures showing a notable drop in price, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Data - Argentina's soybean exports in May reached 1,224,096.07 tons, while soybean meal exports totaled 2,339,966.64 tons [2]. - On June 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume in major oil mills across the country was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 30,525 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions at 43,700 tons [2]. - As of June 12, the USDA reported that net sales of soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 160,000 tons, down from 215,000 tons the previous week, while net sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 14,000 tons, down from 47,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the current basis quote for soybean meal in Guangdong is -150, with weather conditions in key soybean-producing areas expected to be unfavorable for soybean growth in the coming weeks, leading to a potential short-term increase in soybean meal prices [3]. - According to the USDA's weekly crop progress report, as of June 8, 90% of the U.S. soybean planting was completed, compared to 84% the previous week and 86% the same time last year, with the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans dropping from 68% to 66% [3]. - Shengyin Wanguo Futures indicated that domestic oil mills have significantly increased their operating rates, which is expected to accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal stocks, while the cost support from imported soybeans suggests that soybean meal prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that favorable weather conditions in the central United States have led to a decline in the prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans at the Chicago futures exchange [1] - On June 20, 2023, corn prices fell by 4.75 cents to $4.29 per bushel, wheat prices dropped by 7 cents to $5.84 per bushel, and soybean prices decreased by 7.5 cents to $10.61 per bushel [1] - Market analysts expect the condition of U.S. corn and soybean crops to remain stable and improve, despite the recent price declines [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. has not signed new trade agreements, with many countries' 10% tariff deadlines approaching on July 9, and there are no public arrangements for new trade talks between the U.S. and China [1] - The USDA reported that as of the week ending June 12, U.S. wheat export sales were 15.7 million bushels, corn export sales were 35.6 million bushels, and soybean export sales were 19.8 million bushels [1] - For the current crop year, cumulative U.S. wheat export sales reached 233 million bushels, an increase of 34 million bushels year-on-year; corn export sales totaled 2.631 billion bushels, a 26% increase; and soybean export sales reached 1.805 billion bushels, an 11% increase [2] Group 3 - Due to the absence of Chinese buyers, U.S. new crop soybean sales are at the second-lowest level in history [3] - Weather forecasts indicate that rain will cover the northern plains and parts of the Midwest and Canadian prairies over the next 10 days, with high temperatures in the central U.S. continuing until June 24 [3] - These weather conditions are favorable for crop growth, which may further influence market dynamics [3]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月04日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 员一 | 女女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆在低位震荡徘徊。明日国产大豆举行竞价采购专场,关注实际成交情况。从天气上看,短期东北地区 大部时段光温适宜，利于大豆等早田作物苗期生长。进口大豆方面。进口大豆方面国内供应端后续表观充裕, 主要是巴西大豆 ...

棕油上涨、花生大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂强势走高,棕油领涨,因马棕油产量增幅放缓,而出口增幅 扩大,支撑棕油期价走高,继续关注后续产地产量变化。豆油先跌后 涨,受到棕榈油强势带动而缩减跌幅,但进口大豆到港集中,油厂开 机率上市,豆油供应增加,豆油期价承压,后续仍有走跌压力。花生 暴涨,受到油脂板块强势的带动,加之花生贸易商惜售以及进口花生 米偏低等因素支撑花生期价大幅上涨,创近半年新高,后续料将偏强 运行。玉米走势企稳,产区余粮见底以及港口库存下降支撑玉米期价 逐渐回稳有升。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅上扬 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续大涨,受到马棕榈油增产 放缓以及出口强劲的提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1-25 日标搁油出口环比增幅在 7%-11%之间,而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%,产量增幅不及出口增 幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性补 库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。 2.国内豆棕现货价差倒挂加深,棕榈油现货交投冷清,棕榈油消 费偏弱。大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约强劲上扬,站上 40 日均线,MACD 红柱放大,技术强势。策略上轻仓多 ...

CBOT小麦期货累涨3.52%，报5.4350美元/蒲式耳，5月20-21日走高，22-23日略微回落。 CBOT大豆期货累涨1.02%，报10.6075美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货累涨1.44%，豆油期货累涨0.59%。 本周，彭博谷物分类指数累计上涨2.61%，周五（5月23日）纽约尾盘报31.4047点，5月20-21日持续走 高，22-23日高位震荡。 CBOT玉米期货累涨3.49%，报4.59美元/蒲式耳，5月19-22日持续走高，23日略有回落。 ...

油脂大跌、生猪重挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块全线大跌,受到原油回落的影响,市场对美豆油在生物 燃料的需求信心不足,而棕榈油产地产量和库存激增,季节性供应压 力来袭,棕油大幅下挫,国内豆油亦受油厂开机率提升而导致供应增 加预期的压力,豆油亦大跌,后市或偏弱运行。生猪暴跌,养殖端存 栏高位,标猪和肥猪供应充足,下游需求淡季,皆令生猪期价承压下 挫。而鸡蛋亦受高存栏压力而走跌，下行空间或展开。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油: 大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,将前日涨幅大部回 吐,期价受到原油回落的影响: 1.棕榈油大幅回撤,受到原油回落的影响,市场担忧美豆油生物 燃料需求不及预期,多头情绪急速降温,加上马来西亚棕榈油总署 (MPOB)的月度报告显示马来西亚 4月棕榈油产量及库存激增,利 空因素压制马棕榈油的上涨空间,期价大幅回撤。 2.大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约下跌收长阴,期价再度跌至 20 日均 线之下,走势转弱。策略上短线交易,棕榈油主力2509 合约支撑8018, 阻力8200。 (二) 豆油:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆油主力2509 合约大幅下跌,将前日涨幅全部回吐, 期价受 ...