1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to have small fluctuations. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [3][4] - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have increased the new order transactions and shipment volume of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased this week [3] - The start - up rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the autumn fertilizer tail orders are approaching the end, and the start - up rate of compound fertilizer next week is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The main contract's open interest is 270109 lots, down 240 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31434 lots, up 3175 lots [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1630, 1580, 1590, 1600, and 1590 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [3] - FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,554,300 tons, down 75,900 tons [3] - The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.32%, up 2.29%; the daily output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons [3] - The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 27.71%, up 3.53%; the melamine start - up rate is 48.3%, down 6.88% [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,554,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66% [3] - As of October 30, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 47.62% [3] - The domestic urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the probability of output increase is high next week [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

据农业推进情况，后期需求持续时间有限，库存或仍呈现增加趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1600-1660区 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1640 | -2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 4 914 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 281954 | -4384 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -33395 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 5288 | -119 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 40 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -30 | 42 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 348.5 | -11.5 FOB中国主 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-10-23 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 叠加部分装置短停检修，一定程度也放缓了企业库存上涨趋势，本周国内尿素企业库存仅小幅增加，但根 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 据农业推进情况，后期需求持续时间有限，库存或仍呈现增加趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1600-1650区 间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1638 | 17 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/ ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -69 | 5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 322686 | 694 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -45781 | -1085 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6493 | -77 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1540 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1560 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1550 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1560 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -50 | -3 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 370 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 385 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1671 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -48 | 2 -5085 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 292643 | 9294 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -47564 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8897 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -12 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 415 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 62.09 | 2.09 企业 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1746 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -41 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 219382 | -892 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -34318 | -2262 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7205 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1720 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1710 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -36 | 7 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 60 | 9.9 企业库存(周,万吨) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of a decrease in production is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer is mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has declined. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but there is an expectation of an increase starting from the 4th. Domestic demand progresses slowly, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly. Although the inventory of a few enterprises has decreased slightly due to export orders and device maintenance, the total inventory still shows an increase. This week, although some enterprises have export orders, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1780 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 220,274 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 32,056 lots, an increase of 7,422 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 7,205 lots, an increase of 732 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan remain unchanged at 1730 yuan/ton and 1720 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Jiangsu is 1730 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1740 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 437.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton; FOB China's main port is 435 dollars/ton, a decrease of 12.5 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.39%, a decrease of 1.6%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 570,000 tons, an increase of 500,000 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.22%, a decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.5%, an increase of 11.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4,221,200 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,000 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons [2] Industry News - As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 19.76%. As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,349,200 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 82.39%, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic demand for urea is weak, and although some urea enterprises' inventories decline due to export orders and malfunctions, overall enterprise inventories are still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventories, but due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow - rising domestic demand, the decline in urea enterprise inventories may be limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1745 - 1800 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 27 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract position is 205,717 lots, down 2,892 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 36,183 lots, down 1,133 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 450 US dollars/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, up 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2]. Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95%. As of August 21, China's urea port inventory was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons or 7.97%. As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 tons or 0.93%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in domestic urea production is high considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. During the autumn fertilizer production stage, the industrial demand for compound fertilizers leads to appropriate low - price purchases, but the increase in the compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is slow, resulting in low rigid demand for urea. Downstream factories mainly make small low - price purchases. Although some urea enterprises' inventory decreases due to export orders and fault maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is beneficial for reducing urea enterprise inventory, but the decline may be limited due to enterprise restricted purchases and slow domestic demand improvement. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1770 - 1820 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 208,609 lots, down 4,424 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,050 lots, down 3,584 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Henan is 1740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1770 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 6 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are both 450 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 95.74 tons, up 6.98 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.2212 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2] Industry News - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons, a 6.95% week - on - week increase. As of August 14, the port sample inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons, a 3.93% week - on - week decrease. As of August 14, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.3486 million tons, up 20,100 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week increase; the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points, changing from a downward to an upward trend [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 63 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -34 | -11 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 213033 | 29238 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31466 | -7339 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3573 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -87 | -63 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 46.4 | -1.9 企业库 ...