求的适当补仓，以及部分企业出口订单的兑现，助推上周尿素工厂库存继续下降。短期工业复合肥开工较 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 尿素产业日报 2025-12-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 1 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -43 | 9 -6518 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 81993 | -15767 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -14734 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 11214 | -31 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1680 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1700 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 70 | -1 | | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Daily Report 2025-12-04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, driven by the replenishment of previous reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demand. Considering the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of some gas - head enterprises and the continuous advancement of downstream reserve demand, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 1688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - The position of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 209,271 lots, down 282 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 18,433 lots, up 4,195 lots [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 9,353, up 1,588 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1710, 1680, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Henan and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1690 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 357.5 and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] - The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was - 12 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged; the enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the melamine operating rate was 60.8%, down 1.4% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons or 5.38% [2] - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of container shipping, but the container shipping rhythm is still slow [2] - As of December 4, due to the maintenance of some new urea production devices, the domestic urea output continued to decline. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production next week, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production [2] 3.6 View Summary - The output of urea enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, down 31,900 tons or 2.25% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period [2] - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises continued to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase slightly in the short term. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2] 3.7提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

| | | 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 加之部分出口需求的推进，本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，短期考虑到部分气头企业停车带来的供应减 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 量，而下游储备需求继续推进，预计尿素企业库存有望继续小幅下降。UR2601合约短线预计在1660-1700 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 尿素产业日报 2025-12-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. This week, 4 enterprises' plants are planned to stop, and 4 stopped plants may resume production. Considering short - term malfunctions, production is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand was relatively concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers increased month - on - month, and enterprises are gradually scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in the short term [3]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Due to the continued advancement of reserve demand and the restocking of downstream terminals such as compound fertilizers, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. Considering the advancement of reserve demand and partial export shipping expectations, the short - term urea inventory still has a slight de - stocking trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1700 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 219,302 lots, down 426 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,309 lots, down 1429 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts were 7887 lots, down 50 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1710 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, - 10 yuan, and 30 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 357.5 US dollars/ton and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 7 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.3. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, with no change; the enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons; the urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5,871,270 tons, up 132,600 tons [3]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the operating rate of melamine was 60.8%, down 1.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [3]. 3.5. Industry News - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. As of November 27, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, with no change. The overall port arrival rhythm was slow, and the port inventory may increase after the end of legal inspection. As of November 27, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3]. 3.6. Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1665 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 245423 | -3667 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31813 | 1338 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7183 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 8 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 367.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 8.2 | 0.3 企业库存(周,万 ...

主，尿素企业库存或继续呈现下降趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1640-1690区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 渐增量。本周尿素企业库存下降，东北储备需求明显增加，部分企业受其利影响去库明显。主产销区尿素 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 尿素产业日报 2025-11-19 企业变化涨跌不一，局部区域虽然价格上涨，但去库幅度有限。近日部分尿素企业预收增加，积极出货为 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 尿素产业日报 2025-11-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1658 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 250538 | -5582 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -39203 | -600 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6958 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1610 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1590 | -20 郑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of previously shut - down devices and considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. The agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate price concessions for transactions. The compound fertilizer's recent improvement in sales has led to a phased increase in its operating rate, and industrial demand has increased moderately. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to decline steadily or remain stable. The decline in urea enterprise inventory this week is mainly due to the implementation of new export policies, which have boosted the domestic trading atmosphere and improved the sales of urea enterprises. However, after the urea price increased, the new order transactions of factories slowed down, and the inventory of some enterprises rebounded. It is expected that urea enterprises will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1670 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1655 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 256,120 lots, with an increase of 2083 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38,603; the exchange warehouse receipts are 6958 sheets, with an increase of 146 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu remain unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1610 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Shandong and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton and 1610 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port are 357.5 US dollars/ton and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 7.9 million tons, with a decrease of 3.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, with an increase of 238 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, with an increase of 2.39%; the daily urea output is 183,500 tons, with a decrease of 4400 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, with an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly urea output is 5.73867 million tons, with a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, remaining unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, with an increase of 3.22%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 83 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, with an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, with a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, with an increase of 1600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4836 billion tons, a decrease of 945 million tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. As of November 6, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 7.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons, a 28.18% decrease. As of November 6, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3545 billion tons, an increase of 392 million tons from the previous period, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 82.71%, an increase of 2.39% from the previous period, and the upward trend continues [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea production continues to increase this week following the previous cycle's equipment changes [2] - The compound fertilizer's operating rate has rebounded due to improved sales, but it is expected to decline steadily or slightly considering new orders [2] - Urea enterprise inventory increased slightly last week, and with weak agricultural demand and moderate industrial and reserve demand, some enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, while inventory may continue to accumulate in the short - term [2] - The U2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1690 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest is 257,574 lots, down 11,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31,413 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 6415 sheets, up 1830 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remained unchanged at 1590 yuan/ton, while those in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 30, 10, 20, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The main contract's basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 357.5 and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 7.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, up 2.39%; the daily output is 183,500 tons, down 4400 tons [2] - Urea exports are 1.37 million tons, up 57%; the monthly output is 5.73867 million tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, up 3.22% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 83 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, up 1600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, enterprise inventory was 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons week - on - week, a 1.53% increase [2] - As of November 6, port inventory was 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons week - on - week, a 28.18% decrease [2] - As of November 6, production was 1.3545 billion tons, up 39.2 million tons week - on - week, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of urea enterprises continues to increase this week, and the probability of an increase in production is high considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate concessions in transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased appropriately. However, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. There is no obvious trend of concentrated port exports recently, and supply and demand are mainly concentrated in the domestic market. The inventory of some urea enterprises maintains a weak balance, and the inventory may continue to accumulate in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 1644 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the 1 - 5 spread is - 83 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the position of the main contract is 275142 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2887; the net position of the top 20 is - 31611, with a week - on - week decrease of 1734; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3900, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong remain unchanged, the price in Jiangsu increases by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Anhui decreases by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is - 64 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 110,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23,800 tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 82.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.39%; the daily output is 187,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5300 tons. The export volume is 1.37 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 31.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.33%; the operating rate of melamine is 49.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers is 116 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 124 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 96 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.6618 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 25,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.5781 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23,800 tons and a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. As of November 6, the port inventory is 79,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 28.18%. As of November 6, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.3545 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,200 tons and a week - on - week increase of 2.98%; the capacity utilization rate is 82.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]