| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1671 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -48 | 2 -5085 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 292643 | 9294 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -47564 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8897 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -12 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 415 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 62.09 | 2.09 企业 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1746 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -41 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 219382 | -892 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -34318 | -2262 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7205 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1720 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1710 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -36 | 7 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 60 | 9.9 企业库存(周,万吨) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of a decrease in production is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer is mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has declined. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but there is an expectation of an increase starting from the 4th. Domestic demand progresses slowly, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly. Although the inventory of a few enterprises has decreased slightly due to export orders and device maintenance, the total inventory still shows an increase. This week, although some enterprises have export orders, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1780 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 220,274 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 32,056 lots, an increase of 7,422 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 7,205 lots, an increase of 732 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan remain unchanged at 1730 yuan/ton and 1720 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Jiangsu is 1730 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1740 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 437.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton; FOB China's main port is 435 dollars/ton, a decrease of 12.5 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.39%, a decrease of 1.6%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 570,000 tons, an increase of 500,000 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 39.22%, a decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.5%, an increase of 11.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4,221,200 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,000 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons [2] Industry News - As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 19.76%. As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,349,200 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 82.39%, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic demand for urea is weak, and although some urea enterprises' inventories decline due to export orders and malfunctions, overall enterprise inventories are still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventories, but due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow - rising domestic demand, the decline in urea enterprise inventories may be limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1745 - 1800 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 27 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract position is 205,717 lots, down 2,892 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 36,183 lots, down 1,133 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 450 US dollars/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, up 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2]. Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95%. As of August 21, China's urea port inventory was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons or 7.97%. As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 tons or 0.93%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in domestic urea production is high considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. During the autumn fertilizer production stage, the industrial demand for compound fertilizers leads to appropriate low - price purchases, but the increase in the compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is slow, resulting in low rigid demand for urea. Downstream factories mainly make small low - price purchases. Although some urea enterprises' inventory decreases due to export orders and fault maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is beneficial for reducing urea enterprise inventory, but the decline may be limited due to enterprise restricted purchases and slow domestic demand improvement. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1770 - 1820 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 208,609 lots, down 4,424 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,050 lots, down 3,584 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Henan is 1740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1770 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 6 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are both 450 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 95.74 tons, up 6.98 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.2212 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2] Industry News - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons, a 6.95% week - on - week increase. As of August 14, the port sample inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons, a 3.93% week - on - week decrease. As of August 14, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.3486 million tons, up 20,100 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week increase; the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points, changing from a downward to an upward trend [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 63 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -34 | -11 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 213033 | 29238 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31466 | -7339 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3573 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -87 | -63 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 46.4 | -1.9 企业库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The domestic agricultural demand for urea is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. The compound fertilizer industrial demand makes appropriate low - price purchases during the autumn fertilizer production stage, but the increase in the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate is slow, resulting in limited rigid demand for urea. The domestic demand progresses slowly, and the downstream factories mainly make small - quantity low - price purchases. Although some export - oriented enterprises can balance production and sales, some enterprises are affected by the weakening domestic demand. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to increase, and it is expected to keep rising in the short term. The short - term trading range for the UR2601 contract is recommended to be between 1740 - 1800 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1754 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17; the 9 - 1 spread is - 23 yuan/ton, down 7 week - on - week. The main contract's open interest is 183,795 lots, an increase of 1,188; the net position of the top 20 is - 24,127, a decrease of 2,210. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573, unchanged week - on - week [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Henan it is 1720 yuan/ton, down 20; in Jiangsu it is 1710 yuan/ton, down 20; in Shandong it is 1730 yuan/ton, up 30; in Anhui it is 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in the Baltic is 450 US dollars/ton, down 5; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 450 US dollars/ton, down 10. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, up 13 [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 95.74 tons, an increase of 6.98 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, an increase of 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98%; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 tons, an increase of 6.98 tons week - on - week, a 7.86% increase. As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons week - on - week, a 3.93% decrease. As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 134.86 tons, an increase of 2.01 tons week - on - week, a 1.51% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, up 1.24%, with the trend turning from decline to increase. Recently, some plants have restarted, and the domestic daily urea output has increased slightly. This week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output increase is high [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1726 | -31 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -11 | 10 360 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 174742 | 99834 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -24077 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3823 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1730 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1720 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1740 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -6 | -10 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 455 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 460 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 48.3 | -1 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand for urea is in a seasonal off - peak, and demand continues to weaken. Although it's entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, the increase in the compound fertilizer industry's demand for urea is slow, and downstream factories mainly make small - quantity purchases at low prices. - The export of urea fails to meet expectations, new orders for factories slow down, and the inventory of domestic urea enterprises still has a tendency to accumulate in the short term. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1680 - 1760 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 21 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. - The main contract's open interest is 142,211 lots, down 489 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,151 lots, down 3849 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts are 3373 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remain unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton, in Henan and Jiangsu are down 10 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, in Shandong remain unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton, and in Anhui are down 10 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton. - The main contract basis is 27 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. - FOB Baltic is 435 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars; FOB China's main port is 410 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 49.3 million tons, down 5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.6%, up 0.01%; the daily output is 193,500 tons, unchanged. - The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2]. 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 38.68%, up 5.1%; the melamine operating rate is 63.5%, down 1.7%. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 101 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 395 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 million tons, down 0.6408 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,500 tons, down 900 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons from last week, a 6.81% increase. - As of July 31, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 49.3 million tons, down 5 million tons from last week, a 9.21% decrease. - As of July 31, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3548 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a 0.01% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 83.60%, up 0.01% from the previous period [2].

尿素产业日报 2025-07-30 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 09合约短线建议在1730-1800区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1742 | -2 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -28 | -2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 147157 | -5823 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22228 | 3865 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2900 | 0 | | | ...