浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，25Q3公司快递量完成95.7亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为19.4%。散 件业务量增长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极贡献。基于全年预测数据及根据目 前的市场和运营情况，公司对年度指引作出调整，2025年的包裹量预计将介于382亿至387亿件之间，同 比增长12.3%至13.8%。核心单票方面，25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元；环比25Q2提升 0.05元。国庆节后第二轮涨价开启，行业旺季到来，涨价具备一定持续性，对快递价格形成支撑。 消息面上，近日，中通快递-W发布2025年三季度业绩，里昂指出，中通快递-W第三季收入及经调整净 利润分别同比增长11%及7%，每单经调整净利润为约0.27元人民币，较第二季的0.21元人民币改善，看 好其核心每单成本因新转运中心投产仅上升0.02元人民币。里昂表示，行业反内卷政策预期将持续实 施，相信监管机构会继续透过设定价格下限，来严格遏止价格恶性竞争。考虑到中通客户结构较同业 好，里昂预期该公司明年市场份额可回升，将2025及2026年净利润预测轻微上调2%。 中通快递-W(02057)张超 ...

浙商证券发布研报称，25Q3公司快递量完成95.7亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为19.4%。散件业务量增 长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极贡献。基于全年预测数据及根据目前的市场和 运营情况，公司对年度指引作出调整，2025年的包裹量预计将介于382亿至387亿件之间，同比增长 12.3%至13.8%。核心单票方面，25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元；环比25Q2提升0.05 元。国庆节后第二轮涨价开启，行业旺季到来，涨价具备一定持续性，对快递价格形成支撑。 消息面上，近日，中通快递-W发布2025年三季度业绩，里昂指出，中通快递-W第三季收入及经调整净 利润分别同比增长11%及7%，每单经调整净利润为约0.27元人民币，较第二季的0.21元人民币改善，看 好其核心每单成本因新转运中心投产仅上升0.02元人民币。里昂表示，行业反内卷政策预期将持续实 施，相信监管机构会继续透过设定价格下限，来严格遏止价格恶性竞争。考虑到中通客户结构较同业 好，里昂预期该公司明年市场份额可回升，将2025及2026年净利润预测轻微上调2%。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057) ...

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with specific stocks showing gains while the overall ETF has retreated. The railway construction sector is progressing well, indicating a stable investment environment for long-term funds [1]. Group 1: Transportation Sector Performance - On November 17, 2025, the transportation ETF declined by 1.23%, while Xiamen Port Authority rose over 4% and Haichen Co. increased by over 2% [1]. - The ETF is the only one tracking the CSI All-Share Transportation Index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the transportation industry, including logistics, railways, highways, shipping ports, and airports [1]. Group 2: Railway Construction Progress - From January to October, the national railway completed fixed asset investment of 671.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1]. - Key railway projects have made significant progress, including the Panxun to Xingyi high-speed railway entering trial operation and the completion of the main structure of Xi'an East Station [1]. Group 3: Express Delivery Sector - The China Express Development Index for October 2025 was reported at 475.5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]. - It is expected that the express delivery business volume will grow by approximately 7% year-on-year, with business revenue projected to increase by around 5% [1]. Group 4: Investment Appeal - The railway sector is characterized by strong public utility attributes and high earnings stability, aligning with the investment needs of insurance funds and other long-term capital, thus possessing defensive investment value [1].

Core Insights - The express delivery market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total of 13.938 billion packages collected from October 21 to November 11, indicating a robust demand for logistics services [1] - The average daily collection during this period reached 634 million packages, which is 117.8% of the regular business volume, highlighting the peak season's impact on operations [1] - A record peak daily volume of 777 million packages was achieved, showcasing the industry's capacity to handle increased demand during busy periods [1] Industry Performance - The express delivery market is expanding, demonstrating its critical role in supporting consumption upgrades and contributing to the growth of the real economy [1]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China has seen a significant increase in delivery volume, with a total of 122.3 billion items delivered from January to July, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - The express delivery sector has also experienced robust growth, with a total of 112.05 billion items delivered during the same period, marking an 18.7% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue from the postal industry has steadily increased, reaching 1,018.07 billion yuan in the first seven months, which is an 8.3% year-on-year growth [1] Delivery Volume - In July alone, the express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion items, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.1% [1] - The same-city express delivery volume totaled 9.26 billion items, reflecting a 6.5% increase year-on-year, while the intercity express delivery volume reached 100.43 billion items, with a year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] Regional Development - The revenue distribution of express delivery in different regions is as follows: Eastern region at 74.0%, Central region at 15.5%, and Western region at 10.5% [1] - Compared to the same period last year, the Central region's express delivery revenue share increased by 0.5 percentage points, and the volume share increased by 0.9 percentage points [1] - The Western region also saw an increase, with its revenue share rising by 0.3 percentage points and volume share by 0.5 percentage points [1]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China has seen a significant increase in delivery volume, with a total of 122.3 billion items delivered from January to July, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - The express delivery sector has also experienced robust growth, with 112.05 billion items delivered during the same period, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue from the postal industry has steadily risen, reaching 1,018.07 billion yuan in the first seven months, which is an 8.3% increase compared to the previous year [1] Delivery Volume - In July alone, the express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion items, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.1% [1] - The same-city express delivery volume totaled 9.26 billion items, with a growth rate of 6.5% [1] - The intercity express delivery volume was 100.43 billion items, which represents a significant year-on-year increase of 19.9% [1] Revenue Growth - The express delivery revenue accumulated to 839.42 billion yuan in the first seven months, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [1] - The revenue distribution among different regions shows that the eastern region accounted for 74.0%, the central region for 15.5%, and the western region for 10.5% of the total express delivery revenue [1] Regional Development - The central region's share of express delivery revenue increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while its volume share rose by 0.9 percentage points [1] - The western region also saw an increase, with its revenue share up by 0.3 percentage points and volume share up by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China has completed a total of 122.3 billion items in delivery business volume in the first seven months, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - The express delivery business volume reached 112.05 billion items, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [1] Delivery Business Breakdown - International and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express delivery accounted for 2.36 billion items, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [1] - Same-city express delivery totaled 9.26 billion items, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - Inter-city express delivery reached 100.43 billion items, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1]

Group 1 - The express delivery business volume in China reached 95.6 billion pieces in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.3% [1]

Group 1 - The total volume of postal delivery services in China reached 861.8 billion items in the first five months, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [1] - The express delivery volume specifically amounted to 787.7 billion items during the same period, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 2.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth. Given the company's leading position in the industry and robust profitability, the "Buy" rating is maintained [4][16][12] - The company focused on market share growth, with a Q1 express delivery volume of 8.54 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, capturing a market share of 18.9% [13][12] - The company expects a business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025, with a projected package volume of approximately 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [15][12] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 50.22 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.40%, 12.07%, and 10.46% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.53 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.14%, 16.49%, and 9.96% for the following years [16][17] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 11.85 yuan for 2025, increasing to 15.18 yuan by 2027 [17][16] Cost and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's core express delivery cost per piece remained stable at 0.94 yuan, with a transportation cost decrease of 0.06 yuan to 0.41 yuan, a decline of 12.8% [14][12] - The adjusted net profit per piece was 0.26 yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year [14][12]