近日，国家邮政局公布数据表示，中国已建成世界上规模最大、受益人数最多的寄递网络。从2025年全国快递业务数据看，1- 12月，全国快递业务量累计完成1989.5亿件，同比增长13.6%，快递业务收入累计完成1.5万亿元，同比增长6.5%，均创下历史新 高。 在这张全球最大寄递网络中，哪些省份扮演了关键枢纽？ 从快递业务量看，2025年，广东、浙江、江苏三座东部省份仍位列全国前三，分别达到460.05亿件、344.04亿件、157.88亿件， 陕西、宁夏、贵州等西部省份则在增速上交出亮眼表现，凭借38.6%、35.6%、34.4%的超快增长，领跑全国。 值得注意的是，对比快递业务总量和收入规模，部分省份出现"量增价跌"现象。其中，广东2025年快递业务量同比增长8%、业 务收入同比下降1.3%，拉动全省物流成本进一步下探。除北京外，2025年全国共有30个省份快递业务收入增速较2024年有所放 缓。 东部守擂，西部崛起 从快递业务量看，国家邮政局公布数据表示，2025年1-12月，全国快递业务量完成1989.5亿件，同比增长13.6%，创下历史新 高。其中，广东、浙江、江苏三座东部省份仍实现规模领跑，陕西、宁夏 ...

Core Insights - The postal industry in China is projected to handle a total of 216.51 billion parcels in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - The express delivery segment is expected to account for 198.95 billion parcels, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [1] - The overall revenue for the postal industry is anticipated to reach 1.8 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Revenue from the express delivery sector is projected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 6.5% year-on-year [1] Regional Development - The growth in the postal industry is contributing to a more balanced regional development, particularly in the central and western regions of China [1] - The share of express delivery revenue from eastern, central, and western regions is expected to be 73.7%, 15.7%, and 10.6% respectively [1] - The volume of express deliveries from these regions is projected to be 70.5% from the east, 19.9% from the central, and 9.6% from the west [1]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China is projected to handle a total of 216.51 billion delivery items in 2025, marking an 11.8% year-on-year growth. The express delivery segment is expected to account for 198.95 billion items, reflecting a 13.6% increase [1] - The total revenue for the postal industry (excluding direct revenue from postal savings banks) is anticipated to reach 1.8 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 6.1% growth. Express delivery revenue is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5% [1] - In December 2025, the postal industry is expected to complete 19.77 billion delivery items, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with express delivery accounting for 18.21 billion items, up 2.3% [1] Business Segmentation - In 2025, the volume of same-city express deliveries is projected to reach 15.79 billion items, growing by 1.0%. In contrast, intercity express deliveries are expected to total 178.94 billion items, with a significant growth of 15.0%. International and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan express deliveries are forecasted to be 4.22 billion items, up 8.8% [1] - The postal letter business is expected to decline to 680 million items in 2025, a decrease of 31.0%. The parcel business is projected to complete 30.54 million items, down 2.0%. Newspaper and magazine deliveries are also expected to decline by 4.2% and 6.5%, respectively [2] - The share of same-city, intercity, and international express deliveries in total express delivery volume is expected to be 7.9%, 90.0%, and 2.1%, respectively, with shifts in market share observed compared to the previous year [2] Regional Performance - In 2025, the revenue distribution for express delivery across eastern, central, and western regions is expected to be 73.7%, 15.7%, and 10.6%, respectively. The volume distribution is projected to be 70.5%, 19.9%, and 9.6% [2] - Compared to the previous year, the eastern region is expected to see a decline in both revenue and volume share, while the central and western regions are anticipated to experience slight increases in their respective shares [2] Market Concentration - The concentration index (CR8) for express and parcel service brands is projected to be 86.8 in 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 compared to the previous months [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Holdings reported a total business volume of 23.453 billion parcels from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.27% [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company achieved a cumulative business volume of 23.453 billion parcels, reflecting a 9.27% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its network infrastructure and strengthening automation capabilities to create a smarter and more flexible operational base, which will improve sorting and transportation efficiency [1] - Yunda is implementing high-quality services across its network to enhance safety, timeliness, and service experience, thereby increasing brand premium capability [1] - The company is empowering its service points by promoting customer segmentation and development, and strengthening the application of digital systems and management tools to improve customer service capabilities and expand differentiated service products [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery business in China achieved a cumulative volume of 180.74 billion packages in the first 11 months, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [1] - The total revenue from express delivery services reached 1,355.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1] - The service quality has improved significantly, with the on-time delivery rate in key regions expected to be 86.7% in November, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - The express delivery volume distribution among regions shows that the eastern, central, and western regions accounted for 70.7%, 19.8%, and 9.5% respectively [1] - The central region's share of express delivery volume increased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while the western region's share rose by 0.6 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - ZTO Express (02057) reported a 4% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 13.62, with a trading volume of HKD 15.42 million [1] - For Q3 2025, ZTO Express's revenue and adjusted net profit grew by 11% and 7% year-on-year, respectively, with adjusted net profit per order at approximately RMB 0.27, an improvement from RMB 0.21 in Q2 [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of industry anti-competition policies, with regulatory bodies likely to enforce price floors to curb vicious price competition [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Securities reported that the company completed 9.57 billion express deliveries in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The growth momentum in the parcel business remains strong, with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, contributing positively to profits [2] - The company adjusted its annual guidance, forecasting parcel volumes for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2]

Group 1 - ZTO Express reported a 4% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 13.62, with a trading volume of HKD 15.42 million [1] - For Q3 2025, ZTO Express's revenue and adjusted net profit grew by 11% and 7% year-on-year, respectively, with adjusted net profit per order at approximately RMB 0.27, an improvement from RMB 0.21 in Q2 [1] - The company’s core per-order cost increased by only RMB 0.02 due to the launch of a new transit center, indicating operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - ZTO Express completed 9.57 billion parcels in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The growth in the parcel business remains strong, with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, contributing positively to profits [2] - The company adjusted its annual guidance, projecting parcel volume for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2] - The adjusted net profit per order for Q3 2025 was RMB 0.26, slightly down from RMB 0.27 in Q3 2024, but up by RMB 0.05 from Q2 2025 [2] - A second round of price increases post-National Day is expected to support express delivery prices during the peak season [2]

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with specific stocks showing gains while the overall ETF has retreated. The railway construction sector is progressing well, indicating a stable investment environment for long-term funds [1]. Group 1: Transportation Sector Performance - On November 17, 2025, the transportation ETF declined by 1.23%, while Xiamen Port Authority rose over 4% and Haichen Co. increased by over 2% [1]. - The ETF is the only one tracking the CSI All-Share Transportation Index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the transportation industry, including logistics, railways, highways, shipping ports, and airports [1]. Group 2: Railway Construction Progress - From January to October, the national railway completed fixed asset investment of 671.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1]. - Key railway projects have made significant progress, including the Panxun to Xingyi high-speed railway entering trial operation and the completion of the main structure of Xi'an East Station [1]. Group 3: Express Delivery Sector - The China Express Development Index for October 2025 was reported at 475.5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]. - It is expected that the express delivery business volume will grow by approximately 7% year-on-year, with business revenue projected to increase by around 5% [1]. Group 4: Investment Appeal - The railway sector is characterized by strong public utility attributes and high earnings stability, aligning with the investment needs of insurance funds and other long-term capital, thus possessing defensive investment value [1].

Core Insights - The express delivery market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total of 13.938 billion packages collected from October 21 to November 11, indicating a robust demand for logistics services [1] - The average daily collection during this period reached 634 million packages, which is 117.8% of the regular business volume, highlighting the peak season's impact on operations [1] - A record peak daily volume of 777 million packages was achieved, showcasing the industry's capacity to handle increased demand during busy periods [1] Industry Performance - The express delivery market is expanding, demonstrating its critical role in supporting consumption upgrades and contributing to the growth of the real economy [1]

Core Insights - The postal industry in China has seen a significant increase in delivery volume, with a total of 122.3 billion items delivered from January to July, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - The express delivery sector has also experienced robust growth, with a total of 112.05 billion items delivered during the same period, marking an 18.7% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue from the postal industry has steadily increased, reaching 1,018.07 billion yuan in the first seven months, which is an 8.3% year-on-year growth [1] Delivery Volume - In July alone, the express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion items, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.1% [1] - The same-city express delivery volume totaled 9.26 billion items, reflecting a 6.5% increase year-on-year, while the intercity express delivery volume reached 100.43 billion items, with a year-on-year growth of 19.9% [1] Regional Development - The revenue distribution of express delivery in different regions is as follows: Eastern region at 74.0%, Central region at 15.5%, and Western region at 10.5% [1] - Compared to the same period last year, the Central region's express delivery revenue share increased by 0.5 percentage points, and the volume share increased by 0.9 percentage points [1] - The Western region also saw an increase, with its revenue share rising by 0.3 percentage points and volume share by 0.5 percentage points [1]