Core Insights - The U.S. Transportation Secretary, Duffy, announced that air traffic controllers who continued to work during the government shutdown have received 70% of their back pay [1] - Many air traffic controllers faced economic pressure due to prolonged unpaid work, leading to absenteeism and the need for part-time jobs to supplement their income [1] - The staffing shortages at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) resulted in flight delays and operational disruptions at several airports [1] - With the end of the government shutdown, attendance among air traffic controllers has significantly improved this week [1] - Duffy stated that the remaining back pay will be disbursed over the next few pay periods [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact the economy, with the IMF predicting a lower economic growth rate of less than 1.9% for Q4 of this year [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. economy has shown resilience in recent years but is currently facing increasing pressure due to weak domestic demand and slowing job growth [1] - Factors such as reduced immigration, tariffs, and broader policy uncertainty are collectively suppressing economic activity in the U.S. [1] Government Shutdown Consequences - The government shutdown has resulted in data gaps, affecting the IMF's ability to assess U.S. economic performance [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that a six-week shutdown would lead to approximately $11 billion in economic losses for the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - The report from UOB highlights the temporary end of the U.S. government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, but warns of significant risks of another shutdown due to the temporary funding bill lasting only until January 30, 2026 [1][2] - The shutdown has caused delays in economic recovery and may result in the permanent loss of key economic data, impacting policymakers' ability to make informed decisions [1][2] Economic Impact - The report indicates that the resumption of government services will not be immediate, with programs like the federal food stamp assistance for 42 million Americans taking up to a week to fully restore [2] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has also imposed flight restrictions due to staff shortages caused by the shutdown, which are expected to take a week to lift [2] GDP Forecast Adjustments - UOB has revised its U.S. GDP growth forecasts, lowering the 2025 growth estimate from 1.7% to 1.5% due to the impact of the shutdown, while increasing the 2026 forecast from 1.5% to 1.7% based on expected recovery [2] Risks Ahead - The primary risk for the 2026 forecast is the potential for another prolonged government shutdown after January 30, which could adversely affect sectors like aviation [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Congress is set to vote on a temporary funding bill that may end a government shutdown lasting over 40 days [2] - The Senate passed the bill on October 10, prompting many representatives to return to Washington, D.C. [2] - The shutdown has severely impacted the airline industry, with approximately 6% of flights canceled on November 11, and projections indicating increases to 8% and 10% cancellations on subsequent days [4] Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown has caused significant disruptions, including flight cancellations and travel difficulties for Congress members [4][2] - Experts view the shutdown as a failure of both political parties, suggesting that even if the temporary funding bill passes, the economic and social damage may be irreparable [6][10] - The current temporary funding bill only addresses three of the twelve required annual appropriations, leaving nine still unresolved, which raises the possibility of another shutdown in two months [12] Group 2: Political Reactions - Political figures express frustration over the shutdown, with one representative opting to ride a motorcycle back to D.C. due to unreliable flights [2] - Analysts criticize the shutdown as a source of unnecessary chaos and uncertainty, highlighting the negative impact on the U.S. economy [8][10] - The situation reflects a broader failure of bipartisan cooperation, with little achieved by those supporting the shutdown in terms of policy concessions [10]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives has officially passed a temporary funding bill for the federal government, which is expected to be signed by President Trump, effectively ending a record 43-day government shutdown [1] Group 1 - The temporary funding bill aims to restore government operations after a prolonged shutdown [1] - The shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking a significant event in U.S. government history [1]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary federal government funding bill, which may end the government shutdown that has lasted for over 40 days [1] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has mandated a 6% reduction in flights at 40 busy airports across the U.S. for the second consecutive day, leading to significant flight cancellations and delays [1] - Transportation Secretary has warned that if Congress does not quickly restart the government, flight disruptions will worsen ahead of the traditional holiday travel peak, with flight reductions expected to rise to 10% by the 14th [1] Industry Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in the cancellation of 890 flights and delays for 750 flights on the day of reporting, indicating a significant impact on the airline industry [1] - The potential increase in flight cancellations and delays could adversely affect travel plans during the holiday season, which is a critical period for airlines [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated more sharply during the session, while silver prices continued a strong rebound. The employment market's downward risk has significantly increased, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, slightly higher than before [3]. - The U.S. Senate passed the temporary appropriation bill, which eases concerns about short - term market liquidity shortages but implies an increase in U.S. government debt, which is positive for gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is pricing in weak employment data and moderate inflation expectations in advance, and the weakening dollar may boost precious metals. The escalating Middle East geopolitical situation provides safe - haven support, while the optimistic expectation of the U.S. government reopening may weaken safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, in the long - term, the increasing U.S. debt risk is in line with the long - term bullish logic for gold [3]. - Technically, the daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The key resistance level for London gold is between $4150 - $4200, and the strong support is at $4000. The focus range for the SHFE gold 2512 contract is 900 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2512 contract is 11500 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract was 945.76 yuan/gram, down 3.12 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract was 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 193 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of SHFE gold were 124540 lots, down 5806 lots; those of SHFE silver were 235542 lots, up 1957 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the SHFE gold main contract were 107081 lots, down 3280 lots; those of SHFE silver were 128005 lots, up 8146 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 583060 kilograms, down 8824 kilograms [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The SMM gold spot price was 943.9 yuan/gram, down 6.4 yuan; the SMM silver spot price was 11991 yuan/kilogram, up 88 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the SHFE gold main contract was - 1.86 yuan/gram, down 3.28 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract was - 82 yuan/kilogram, down 105 yuan [3]. Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15088.63 tons, unchanged [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 30.92%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.03%, up 0.08% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 24.6%, up 2.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 24.61%, up 2.65% [3]. Industry News - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday [3]. - The U.S. "small non - farm" data warned again. From the four - week period ending on October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45000 jobs last month (excluding government employees), which is the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023 [3]. - The optimism of U.S. small businesses dropped to a six - month low. The NFIB data showed that due to deteriorating profits, the optimism index of U.S. small businesses in October dropped 0.6 points to 98.2 [3].

Group 1 - The president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, Nick Daniels, highlighted that the government "shutdown" has led to increased fatigue among air traffic controllers due to financial pressures, raising safety risks [2] - Daniels emphasized that this issue is not political; the cost of the "shutdown" is forcing safety teams in the U.S. to worry about survival rather than focusing on public safety [2] Group 2 - On November 11, U.S. air traffic controllers will face a second instance of not receiving their salaries on time [3] - Daniels called for Congress to take immediate action to end the "shutdown" and ensure that the affected employees receive compensation [3]

Group 1 - The Speaker of the House, Johnson, has called for all House members to return to Washington immediately to prepare for a vote to end the federal government shutdown, which has lasted for 41 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1] - Johnson indicated that some Democratic members are finally willing to join Republicans to end the shutdown, expressing optimism that the "nightmare" is nearing its end [1] - The Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary budget bill, with eight Democratic senators joining Republicans to reach the necessary 60 votes, moving closer to ending the government shutdown [1] Group 2 - The temporary budget bill will keep certain government departments operational until January of the following year, but it does not include the extension of healthcare subsidies that Democrats have been advocating for [2] - Senate Majority Leader, a Republican, assured Democrats that a vote on healthcare subsidies will be held in mid-December [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has advanced a temporary federal government funding bill, which has received the necessary 60 votes to move forward, potentially ending a record 40-day government shutdown [1] - The bill must still pass a formal vote in the Senate, followed by a vote in the House of Representatives, and then be signed by President Trump, a process that may take several days [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the bill will pass in the House, as there is a lack of consensus within the Democratic Party [1]