证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-11-25 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《扩内需亟待发力，关注服务消费和 新基建投资机会》 - 2025.11.17 宏观研究 高频数据显示经济增速有所放缓，符合预期 核心观点 从高频数据来看，11 月居民生活半径有所回升，但"双 11"电商 节销售额或仅小幅回升，且汽车销售有所放缓，11 月社零或小幅增 长；工业需求有所分化，螺纹钢需求弱复苏，沥青需求环比走弱，整 体来看工业需求或维持阶段低位；我国对美发船数量环比小幅下降， 海上丝路指数环比走弱，但韩国前 20 日出口较为明显回升，11 月我 国出口或小幅回落；生产端或小幅放缓，上游生产环比走弱，中下游 生产分化，半钢胎生产率环比回升，PTA 开工率放缓。综上，在去年 四季度高基数的影响下，11 月经济或小幅放缓，供需寻求再平衡。 向后看，考虑去年四季度基数走高，11 月经济或小幅放缓，亦是 ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asia's six major economies show a slowdown in growth, with four countries experiencing reduced GDP in Q3 due to weak manufacturing output and low household consumption [1] - Thailand's Q3 GDP growth is reported at 1.2%, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter, marking the lowest level in nearly four years, primarily affected by a 1.6% decline in manufacturing [1] - Thailand's exports of goods and services also slowed to 6.9% in Q3, significantly lower than the 11.2% growth in Q2, reflecting a downturn in computer and other manufacturing product shipments, as well as a decline in tourism [1] Group 2 - The Thai central bank indicated that strong exports in Q2 were largely due to pre-shipment before tariffs took effect, predicting weaker external demand in H2, especially in Q3 [2] - The Secretary-General of Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council noted that 82% of Thailand's exports to the U.S. are subject to high tariffs, contributing to economic challenges [2] - Singapore's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 2.9% from 4.5% in Q2, attributed to declines in the biopharmaceutical and general manufacturing sectors [2] Group 3 - Indonesia's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 5.04%, partly due to weak private consumption, prompting the government to announce nearly $3 billion in stimulus measures for Q4 [3] - Malaysia's Q3 GDP grew by 5.2%, up from 4.4% in the previous quarter, driven by a recovery in mining, although private consumption growth slowed from 5.3% to 5.0% [3] - Vietnam stands out with a GDP growth increase to 8.22% in Q3 from 8.0% in Q2, supported by strong manufacturing, construction, and service activities, despite potential export reductions due to U.S. tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that foreign capital is significantly reducing its holdings in Chinese bonds, with a notable decline attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and currency fluctuations, which may impact China's financial market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reduction - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 29,765 billion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of 2,843 billion yuan or 8.7% since the beginning of the year, marking the longest net outflow in five years [1]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.8%, compared to approximately 2.6% for Chinese bonds, creating a 2.2 percentage point yield advantage that attracts international capital [1][3]. - Approximately 62% of surveyed international investors indicated that currency fluctuations are a primary factor in their decision to adjust their holdings in Chinese bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The divergence in monetary policy, with the U.S. maintaining a stringent stance while China has implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, has widened the interest rate differential, further encouraging capital flow to the U.S. [4]. - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, which, while still higher than many global economies, has led to cautious sentiment among foreign investors regarding Chinese bonds [4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total bond market as of October 2025, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2023, suggesting that while the outflow has some impact, it is unlikely to cause severe disruption [6]. - The outflow of capital may exert some pressure on the renminbi, but China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.24 trillion as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation to manage currency fluctuations [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The internationalization of China's bond market is increasing, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, which may provide a more stable source of foreign investment in the long run [7]. - A survey of 50 major asset management firms revealed that about 67% believe the proportion of Chinese bonds in their global asset allocation will increase over the next five years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact the economy, with the IMF predicting a lower economic growth rate of less than 1.9% for Q4 of this year [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. economy has shown resilience in recent years but is currently facing increasing pressure due to weak domestic demand and slowing job growth [1] - Factors such as reduced immigration, tariffs, and broader policy uncertainty are collectively suppressing economic activity in the U.S. [1] Government Shutdown Consequences - The government shutdown has resulted in data gaps, affecting the IMF's ability to assess U.S. economic performance [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that a six-week shutdown would lead to approximately $11 billion in economic losses for the U.S. [1]

当地时间11月13日，美国股市全线下跌。科技股抛售潮令市场承压，特斯拉暴跌超6%，领跌科技巨头。 特斯拉重挫逾6% 数据显示，截至当日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数跌1.65%，标准普尔500指数跌1.66%，纳斯达克综合指数跌2.29%。 科技巨头领跌。美国科技七巨头指数下跌2.28%。特斯拉大跌6.64%，英伟达跌超3%，谷歌、亚马逊均跌超2%，微软跌超1%。苹果小幅下跌0.19%，Meta 微涨0.14%。 贝莱德三季度增持微软、英伟达 当地时间11月13日，美国资管巨头三季度持仓报告陆续出炉。贝莱德最新披露的13F文件显示，按市值计算，该公司三季度增持最多的标的为微软，其次 为标普500ETF（SPY）看涨期权。英伟达和雪佛龙同样获得大幅增持。 图片来源：Whalewisdom 国际货币基金组织预计 政府"停摆"使美四季度经济增速放缓 中概股涨跌不一。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.59%，中概科技龙头指数跌0.63%。比亚迪（002594）股份-ADR、阿里巴巴逆势上涨，分别涨1.25%、 1.22%。百度集团大跌逾6%，小米集团-ADR跌超2%，京东集团、美团-ADR、拼多多跌超1%。 黄金价格走低 贵金属 ...

新华社华盛顿11月13日电（记者施春）国际货币基金组织发言人朱莉·科扎克13日表示，美国联邦政 府"停摆"将对经济产生负面影响，预计今年四季度美国经济增速将低于此前预测的1.9%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the economic performance of China in 2025, focusing on GDP growth, investment trends, and consumer behavior, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth with a projected GDP growth of 4.8% in September 2025, primarily driven by external demand while internal demand shows a declining trend [1][4][2]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth - Actual GDP growth for September 2025 is expected to be 4.8% year-on-year, driven by external demand, while internal demand is receding [1][4]. - The nominal GDP growth rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.7% in the third quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth turned negative in the first three quarters, declining by approximately 0.5%, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all showing monthly declines [9][12]. - Equipment updates are driving a recovery in investment in tools and machinery, while service sector investment is gradually improving due to supportive policies [9][12]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending continues to decline due to multiple factors, with traditional sectors like construction and automotive experiencing weak demand, while new sectors like home appliances and cultural products are showing growth [6][7]. - A shift towards service consumption is anticipated as policies promoting service retail are beginning to take effect [7]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing continued declines in investment and demand, with sales area weakening and prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline [8]. - New policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to take time to show effects, indicating a need for both economic and policy support [8]. Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment is facing challenges due to various factors, including trade tensions and external uncertainties, leading to a general weakening, although high-end manufacturing remains robust [11]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure is viewed as a crucial counter-cyclical tool, with recent policy measures, including a 500 billion yuan financial tool, expected to support infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [10][13]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, with potential positive changes expected in 2025 due to the resolution of real estate bubbles and a recovery in internal demand [15]. Other Important Insights - The overall economic environment is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with a need for policies to stimulate consumption and investment [1][4]. - The employment situation is under pressure, with rising unemployment rates indicating a challenging job market [6]. - The PPI has shown signs of improvement, which could positively influence investment returns and nominal growth [12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China as of 2025.

Economic Growth Overview - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, but slowed to 4.8% in Q3, resulting in a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters[1] - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 was 3.7%, with a cumulative nominal GDP growth of 4.1% for the first three quarters[10] Reasons for Q3 Slowdown - The slowdown is attributed to reduced macro policy support in the second half of the year, with a decrease in funding from 162 billion yuan in Q1 to 138 billion yuan in Q3 for consumption incentives[11] - The effectiveness of certain policies, such as the trade-in program for durable goods, has diminished, leading to a decline in retail sales growth from 5.1% in H1 to 3.0% in September[11] - There is a lack of internal growth momentum, with the average consumption propensity dropping from 68.6% in Q2 to 68.1% in Q3[11] Positive Economic Indicators - Industrial capacity utilization has stabilized, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year improvement, and profits for large industrial enterprises turning positive[14] - Exports remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, supported by diversified markets and competitive pricing[15] - High-tech industries saw a 9.6% increase in production value, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and industrial robots[16] Q4 Economic Outlook - The economic performance in Q4 will depend on the introduction of new policies, with a potential GDP growth of 4.8% if policies are strengthened, or a decline to 4.6% if current trends continue[23] - Achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered highly likely, with projections estimating a final growth rate of 5.0% to 5.1%[23] Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to increase fiscal policy efforts, with a recommendation for the 2026 fiscal deficit to be no less than 4%[24] - Monetary policy should leverage the Federal Reserve's rate cuts to further reduce reserve requirements and interest rates[27] - A comprehensive approach to real estate policy is recommended to stabilize the market, including the establishment of a "Real Estate Stability Fund" of approximately 2 trillion yuan[29]

世界银行最新报告指出，9月8日和9日尼泊尔多地爆发的大规模示威游行，扰乱了公共和私人基础设施 运行，亦波及旅游、保险等行业，严重削弱投资者信心，并对整体经济造成冲击。报告还认为，2025年 雨季结束延迟，可能进一步影响该国农业生产。 根据该报告，南亚地区2025年整体经济增速预计为6.6%，到2026年将放缓至5.8%。其中，印度预计增 长6.5%，不丹7.3%，孟加拉国4.8%，斯里兰卡3.5%，马尔代夫3.9%。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社加德满都10月7日电 (记者崔楠)世界银行7日发布最新一期的南亚发展报告指出，受政治不确定性 和社会动荡影响，尼泊尔2025/26财年经济增速预计将放缓至2.1%，并可能在-1.5%至2.6%之间波动。 尼泊尔2025/26财年自7月16日开始，尼泊尔政府曾在本财年预算中将经济增长目标设定为6%。 ...

巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达本周公开批评称，15%的基准利率"甚至不应处于这一水平"，当前经济存在 降息空间。他表示，经济团队正在寻求每年3%以上的 GDP增长率，高利率不仅抑制经济扩张，也威胁 政府在2026年大选年的民众就业和收入目标。 央行行长加布里埃尔·加利波洛（Gabriel Galípolo）此前就通胀目标连续超标向财政部长提交公开信，解 释其原因包括经济过热、汇率波动、电力成本上升及极端气候冲击。加利波洛认为，维持高利率对控制 通胀、保护劳动者购买力至关重要。他强调，"历史经验表明，高通胀才是损害劳动者收入的最大威 胁。在就业和工资保持强劲的情况下，收紧政策仍是必要措施。" 新华财经圣保罗9月26日电 巴西中央银行25日发布的三季度货币政策报告（Monetary Policy Report）将 巴西2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增速预期由2.1%下调至2%。同时，巴西央行首次公布的2026年经济 增速预期仅为1.5%。 报告指出，受持续的高利率政策、全球经济放缓和2025年农业高增长难以延续等因素影响，巴西经济增 长在2026年可能明显减弱。今年下半年，尽管农业和采掘业表现良好，但美国加征关税的 ...