Core Insights - The China Automobile Dealers Association reported that the inventory warning index for automobile dealers in China reached 57.7% in December 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [1] Industry Summary - The inventory warning index is a critical indicator of the health of the automobile dealership sector, with the current level suggesting potential overstocking issues among dealers [1] - The increase in the index reflects growing concerns about inventory management and sales performance within the automotive market [1] - The year-on-year and month-on-month increases highlight a trend that may impact future sales strategies and operational adjustments for automobile dealers [1]

Core Insights - The automotive market in China is experiencing a mixed performance in November, with a "front low and back high" trend observed, particularly influenced by the previous months' sales and new policies from electric vehicle manufacturers [2][6] - Overall, the automotive market's performance in November did not meet expectations, with a decline in industry sentiment [6][7] Sales Performance - In November, the automotive sales terminal market showed a decline in the first half due to the early release of potential car-buying demand from the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2] - The second half of November saw increased promotional efforts from dealers, leading to a decrease in terminal transaction prices, which stimulated consumer demand [2][7] - The estimated terminal sales volume for passenger cars in November is approximately 2.15 million units [7] Dealer Sentiment - A significant 80% of dealers expressed pessimism regarding the November market performance, indicating that it did not meet their expectations [6] - In terms of December demand, 32.3% of dealers anticipate a decrease, while 41.1% expect it to remain stable, and 26.6% foresee an increase [6] Inventory and Pricing - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers in November was reported at 55.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points [5] - The overall transaction prices in November showed a downward trend, with 44.9% of dealers reporting price reductions [4][6] Regional and Brand Performance - The national index for November was 55.6%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 57.1%, East at 56.8%, West at 55.2%, and South at 52.0% [4] - Luxury and joint venture brand indices increased, while the index for domestic brands decreased [4]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) from the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates a rising inventory alert index of 55.6% in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points, suggesting a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall automotive market in November showed a "front low and back high" trend, with a relatively flat performance in the first half of the month due to the consumption pull-forward effect from previous months [3]. - 80% of dealers expressed pessimism about the November market, believing the overall performance did not meet expectations [3]. - The second half of November saw significant market improvement driven by promotional activities like "Double 11," the Guangzhou International Auto Show, and the release of new electric vehicle models [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - The survey revealed a decline in sub-indices for inventory, market demand, average daily sales, employment, and operational conditions in November [4]. - The national index stood at 55.6%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 57.1%, East at 56.8%, West at 55.2%, and South at 52.0% [6]. Group 3: Brand Performance - The index for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, increased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands decreased [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - December is expected to be a peak sales month, with dealers and manufacturers intensifying efforts to meet sales targets through increased promotions and accelerated sales [10]. - Looking ahead to 2026, dealers anticipate a slight growth trend in passenger car sales, with 25.4% expecting a year-on-year increase of up to 5%, while 20.8% foresee a decrease within the same range [10]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to realistically assess market demand and enhance promotion of "trade-in and scrapping policies" to boost consumer confidence [10].

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for November 2025 indicates a rise in the inventory warning index to 55.6%, reflecting a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [2][4]. Market Performance - The automotive market in November showed a "front low and back high" trend, with a relatively flat performance in the first half of the month due to earlier consumption surges and tightening of trade-in policies, leading to increased consumer hesitation [4]. - In the latter half of November, market performance improved significantly, driven by promotional activities like "Double 11," the Guangzhou International Auto Show, and the release of new electric vehicle models [4]. - 80% of dealers expressed pessimism about November's market performance, indicating that overall results did not meet expectations [4]. Inventory and Demand Indicators - The inventory, market demand, average daily sales, employment, and operational status indices all showed a month-on-month decline in November [5]. - The national index for November was 55.6%, with regional indices: North at 57.1%, East at 56.8%, West at 55.2%, and South at 52.0% [7]. Brand Performance - The indices for luxury and imported brands increased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands decreased [8]. Future Market Outlook - December is expected to see a market uptick as manufacturers and dealers strive to meet sales targets through increased promotional efforts [9]. - Dealers anticipate a month-on-month increase in market demand and sales for December, with a general expectation of slight growth in passenger vehicle sales for 2026 [9]. - 25.4% of dealers expect a year-on-year growth of up to 5%, while 20.8% foresee a decline within the same range [9].

Core Viewpoint - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" indicates a decline in the optimism of automobile dealers regarding their business conditions for December, with only 8.2% expecting a good performance, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. Group 1: Dealer Expectations - The proportion of dealers expecting poor market conditions in December has increased from 17.7% to 20.3%, a rise of 2.6 percentage points [3][4]. - Only 8.2% of dealers anticipate a good business situation for December, marking the second-lowest level of the year, slightly better than the 8.1% recorded in July [4]. - 32.3% of dealers believe that market demand will decrease in December, which is an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the previous month [4]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Conditions - The inventory warning index for November was reported at 55.6%, which is an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [4][6]. - A significant 80% of dealers held a pessimistic view of the November market, believing that overall performance did not meet expectations [6]. - Dealers are facing challenges such as reduced customer traffic, increased market hesitation, and narrowing profit margins on new car sales [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The tightening of trade-in policies and the expiration of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles are contributing factors to the current market situation [6]. - There is a market perspective suggesting that the upcoming reduction in vehicle purchase tax starting in 2026 may spur consumer purchasing enthusiasm in December [7]. - The China Automobile Circulation Association recommends that dealers rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence [7].

Core Insights - Only 8.2% of automotive dealers expect better operating conditions in December, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, while the proportion expecting poor market conditions has risen to 20.3% [1] - The survey indicates that 32.3% of dealers believe market demand will "decrease" in December, an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] Summary by Categories Dealer Expectations - In December, 20.3% of dealers expect poor conditions, up from 17.7% in November [2] - The percentage of dealers expecting good conditions is only 8.2%, marking the second-lowest level of the year [1][2] Inventory and Market Conditions - The inventory warning index for November was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [2] - 80% of dealers held a pessimistic view of the November market, believing overall performance did not meet expectations [3] Challenges Faced by Dealers - Dealers are facing challenges such as reduced customer traffic, increased market hesitation, and narrowing profit margins on new car sales [3] - Some manufacturers are increasing sales targets for year-end, exacerbating inventory buildup and tightening cash flow for dealers [3] Future Market Outlook - There is a market perspective that the expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption in 2026 may trigger consumer buying enthusiasm in December [3] - The China Automobile Circulation Association suggests that dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence [3]

Core Insights - The China Automobile Dealers Association reported that the inventory warning index for Chinese automobile dealers in November reached 55.6%, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points [1] Industry Summary - The inventory warning index indicates a growing concern among automobile dealers regarding stock levels, suggesting potential challenges in sales performance [1] - The increase in the index both year-on-year and month-on-month reflects a tightening market environment for automobile sales in China [1]

Core Insights - The latest "Vehicle Inventory Alert Index" (VIA) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the inventory warning index for Chinese automobile dealers is at 55.6% as of November 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.0 percentage points [1] Industry Summary - The inventory warning index is above the threshold line, suggesting a decline in the overall prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market shows signs of improvement in October 2025, with the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index at 52.6%, indicating a better industry outlook despite some ongoing challenges for dealers [2][4]. Market Performance - October 2025 continued the peak season trend, driven by local subsidy policies, the National Day auto show, and year-end promotions, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in order volume in the first half of the month [4]. - Post-National Day, market demand experienced a cyclical pullback, with new orders slightly declining compared to late September, but the market remains resilient due to the impending expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption [4]. - The overall market is expected to maintain a "golden September and silver October" pattern, supported by the release of fourth batch subsidy funds and various year-end benefits [4]. Dealer Conditions - Despite increased foot traffic and order volume, the operational conditions for dealers have not improved significantly, with some manufacturers raising sales targets for dealers, leading to inventory buildup and tight liquidity [4]. - The sub-indices for inventory, workforce, and operational conditions decreased month-on-month, while market demand and average daily sales indices increased [4]. Regional Analysis - The national index stands at 52.6%, with regional indices showing variability: North at 51.3%, East at 51.2%, West at 48.3%, and South at 56.0% [6]. Brand Performance - The index for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, decreased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands increased [7]. Future Market Outlook - Entering November, automakers and dealers are in a push to meet annual targets, with the "Double 11" shopping season, the Guangzhou Auto Show, and continued subsidies expected to enhance terminal demand [8]. - The impending end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption is likely to encourage consumers to make purchases earlier, boosting fourth-quarter sales [8]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance promotion of "trade-in and scrapping" policies to boost consumer confidence [8].

Core Insights - The latest survey report from the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the inventory warning index for October 2025 is at 52.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1][2] Market Performance - The automotive market in October continued to show a strong seasonal trend, driven by local subsidy policies, the National Day auto show, and year-end promotions from dealers, alongside the implementation of the fourth batch of trade-in subsidies and the launch of multiple new models, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in orders in the first half of October [1] - After the National Day holiday, market demand experienced a cyclical adjustment, with new orders showing a moderate month-on-month decline compared to the second half of September; however, the market demonstrated resilience due to the countdown to the exemption of the new energy vehicle purchase tax, prompting manufacturers to offer substantial discounts [1] Sales Forecast - Despite adjustments or suspensions of trade-in policies in various regions, which weakened some policy incentives, the market is still expected to maintain a "golden September and silver October" pattern, with an estimated terminal sales volume of approximately 2.4 million passenger vehicles in October [1] Dealer Conditions - Under the dual drivers of policy and marketing activities, foot traffic and order volume in stores increased in October; however, the operational conditions for dealers did not see substantial improvement, as some manufacturers increased sales targets for dealers, leading to ongoing issues with inventory accumulation and tight liquidity [1] Index Analysis - In October, the inventory, workforce, and operational condition sub-indices showed a month-on-month decline, while the market demand and average daily sales sub-indices increased [2] - The national total index for October stands at 52.6%, with regional indices showing the North at 51.3%, East at 51.2%, West at 48.3%, and South at 56.0% [2] Brand Performance - Among brand types, the indices for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, decreased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands increased [3] - Looking into November, the automotive industry is entering a critical phase for achieving annual targets, with the "Double 11" shopping season, the Guangzhou auto show, and continued "two new" subsidies expected to enhance terminal demand, with sales anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase compared to October [3]