Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market shows signs of improvement in October 2025, with the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index at 52.6%, indicating a better industry outlook despite some ongoing challenges for dealers [2][4]. Market Performance - October 2025 continued the peak season trend, driven by local subsidy policies, the National Day auto show, and year-end promotions, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in order volume in the first half of the month [4]. - Post-National Day, market demand experienced a cyclical pullback, with new orders slightly declining compared to late September, but the market remains resilient due to the impending expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption [4]. - The overall market is expected to maintain a "golden September and silver October" pattern, supported by the release of fourth batch subsidy funds and various year-end benefits [4]. Dealer Conditions - Despite increased foot traffic and order volume, the operational conditions for dealers have not improved significantly, with some manufacturers raising sales targets for dealers, leading to inventory buildup and tight liquidity [4]. - The sub-indices for inventory, workforce, and operational conditions decreased month-on-month, while market demand and average daily sales indices increased [4]. Regional Analysis - The national index stands at 52.6%, with regional indices showing variability: North at 51.3%, East at 51.2%, West at 48.3%, and South at 56.0% [6]. Brand Performance - The index for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, decreased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands increased [7]. Future Market Outlook - Entering November, automakers and dealers are in a push to meet annual targets, with the "Double 11" shopping season, the Guangzhou Auto Show, and continued subsidies expected to enhance terminal demand [8]. - The impending end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption is likely to encourage consumers to make purchases earlier, boosting fourth-quarter sales [8]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance promotion of "trade-in and scrapping" policies to boost consumer confidence [8].

Core Insights - The latest survey report from the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the inventory warning index for October 2025 is at 52.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1][2] Market Performance - The automotive market in October continued to show a strong seasonal trend, driven by local subsidy policies, the National Day auto show, and year-end promotions from dealers, alongside the implementation of the fourth batch of trade-in subsidies and the launch of multiple new models, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in orders in the first half of October [1] - After the National Day holiday, market demand experienced a cyclical adjustment, with new orders showing a moderate month-on-month decline compared to the second half of September; however, the market demonstrated resilience due to the countdown to the exemption of the new energy vehicle purchase tax, prompting manufacturers to offer substantial discounts [1] Sales Forecast - Despite adjustments or suspensions of trade-in policies in various regions, which weakened some policy incentives, the market is still expected to maintain a "golden September and silver October" pattern, with an estimated terminal sales volume of approximately 2.4 million passenger vehicles in October [1] Dealer Conditions - Under the dual drivers of policy and marketing activities, foot traffic and order volume in stores increased in October; however, the operational conditions for dealers did not see substantial improvement, as some manufacturers increased sales targets for dealers, leading to ongoing issues with inventory accumulation and tight liquidity [1] Index Analysis - In October, the inventory, workforce, and operational condition sub-indices showed a month-on-month decline, while the market demand and average daily sales sub-indices increased [2] - The national total index for October stands at 52.6%, with regional indices showing the North at 51.3%, East at 51.2%, West at 48.3%, and South at 56.0% [2] Brand Performance - Among brand types, the indices for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, decreased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands increased [3] - Looking into November, the automotive industry is entering a critical phase for achieving annual targets, with the "Double 11" shopping season, the Guangzhou auto show, and continued "two new" subsidies expected to enhance terminal demand, with sales anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase compared to October [3]

10月31日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA显示，2025年10月中国汽车经销商 库存预警指数为52.6%，同比上升2.1个百分点，环比下降1.9个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业景 气度有所改善。 从区域指数情况看：10月全国总指数为52.6%，北区指数为51.3%，东区指数为51.2%，西区指数为48.3%，南区指数为 56.0%。 从分品牌类型指数看：10月豪华及进口、合资品牌指数环比下降，自主品牌指数环比上升。 10月汽车市场延续旺季态势。地方补贴政策、国庆车展及经销商年末促销共同发力，叠加国家第四批以旧换新补贴落地与 多款新车密集上市，推动10月上半月订单量同比大幅攀升。国庆假期后市场需求呈现周期性回调，新增订单环比9月下半 月温和回落，但受益于新能源汽车购置税免征政策进入倒计时(2025年底终止，2026年起减半)，政策切换窗口促使车企推 出密集优惠，叠加10月初秋季车展订单在加速转化交付，市场韧性凸显。 尽管多地以旧换新政策调整或暂停，削弱部分政策拉力，但随着第四批补贴资金拨付及多重年末利好支撑下，市场仍有望 呈现"金九银十"格局。综合预测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) for September 2025 indicates a slight increase in the inventory warning index, suggesting a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity despite a seasonal demand boost during the "golden September" period [2][4]. Inventory Warning Index - The inventory warning index for September 2025 is reported at 54.5%, which is a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points [2]. - The index remains above the threshold of 50%, indicating that the overall market demand is still relatively stable, although the industry's health is showing signs of decline [2][4]. Market Demand and Sales Performance - In September, various regions implemented changes to vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, which may suppress short-term demand [4]. - Despite these challenges, the back-to-school season and wedding-related purchases, along with promotional activities by dealers, have improved order conversion rates [4]. - Approximately 54.8% of dealers reported that new car sales did not meet their expectations, while 45.2% achieved or exceeded their targets [4]. Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing multiple pressures, including a lack of customer traffic, ongoing price inversions, and declining profitability [4]. - The most common challenge reported is insufficient customer flow, with a decrease in natural foot traffic and low online lead conversion rates [4]. - Price inversions persist, partly due to unsold older models, which exacerbate cash flow issues for dealers [4]. Regional Index Overview - The national index stands at 54.5%, with regional variations: North at 55.2%, East at 52.7%, West at 49.3%, and South at 61.9% [6]. - The index for luxury and imported brands, joint ventures, and domestic brands has shown a month-on-month decline [7]. Future Market Expectations - The automotive market in October is expected to follow a "high opening and steady trend" due to seasonal patterns and ongoing subsidy policies [8]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are anticipated to drive customer traffic and sales, supported by promotional activities from dealers [8]. - The China Automobile Circulation Association advises dealers to realistically assess market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies to boost consumer confidence [8].

Core Insights - In September 2023, the inventory warning index for Chinese automobile dealers was reported at 54.5%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points, while it decreased by 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Industry Summary - The inventory warning index reflects the current state of automobile inventory levels among dealers, with a value above 50% suggesting potential overstock issues [1] - The year-on-year increase indicates a slight rise in inventory concerns among dealers, while the month-on-month decrease suggests a potential improvement in inventory management or sales performance [1]

Core Insights - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index" indicates a slight year-on-year increase in the inventory warning index to 54.5% as of September 2025, while showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%, suggesting a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In September, multiple regions paused or adjusted the vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, which suppressed short-term demand. However, seasonal factors such as back-to-school purchases, weddings, and self-driving needs, along with dealer promotions and local auto shows, significantly improved order conversion efficiency [2] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to delay some consumer purchases, impacting market performance. Overall, the performance in September met expectations, with local autumn auto shows and consumption policies effectively boosting orders and sales in the latter half of the month [2] - Approximately 54.8% of dealers reported that new car sales did not meet their expected targets, while 45.2% achieved or exceeded their expectations. The estimated terminal sales for passenger cars in September are around 2.2 million units [2] Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing multiple pressures, including weak customer traffic, ongoing price inversions, and declining profitability. Insufficient foot traffic is the most common challenge, with a decrease in natural store visits and low online lead conversion rates [2] - Price inversions persist, partly due to unsold older models, exacerbating cash flow issues. Coupled with rigid operating costs, dealers' profitability remains under pressure [2] Index Analysis - The inventory, market demand, average daily sales, workforce, and operating conditions indices all showed a month-on-month increase in September [2] - The national index stands at 54.5%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 55.2%, East at 52.7%, West at 49.3%, and South at 61.9% [4] Brand Performance - The indices for luxury and imported brands, joint ventures, and domestic brands all experienced a month-on-month decline in September [7] Future Market Outlook - The automotive market in October is expected to exhibit a "high opening and steady performance" pattern, supported by traditional seasonal trends and ongoing subsidy policies, along with the dual holiday effect and numerous auto shows [9] - Despite some regions pausing national subsidies, the holiday effect and concentrated consumer demand are anticipated to support a moderate recovery in sales for the month. Looking ahead to Q4, 44.4% of dealers are optimistic, predicting a year-on-year sales growth of 5% to 10% [9] - The China Automobile Circulation Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies, while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency improvements to mitigate operational risks [9]

Core Insights - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the inventory warning index for September 2025 is at 54.5%, which represents a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points. The index remains above the threshold line, suggesting a decline in the overall prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [1]. Industry Summary - The inventory warning index for September 2025 stands at 54.5% [1] - Year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - Month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points [1] - The index is above the threshold line, indicating a decrease in industry prosperity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Vehicle Inventory Alert Index (VIA) indicates a slight increase in the inventory warning index for Chinese auto dealers, suggesting a decline in the overall market sentiment within the automotive circulation industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In August, the automotive market operated steadily despite challenges from adverse weather conditions affecting consumer demand. The second half of the month saw a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [4]. - The introduction of new subsidies and the resumption of local incentives helped alleviate consumer hesitation, leading to a rebound in market demand [4]. Dealer Challenges - Dealers continue to face significant pressure due to macroeconomic downturns and low consumer confidence, resulting in prolonged car purchase cycles and lower-than-expected transaction conversions [4]. - Over 75% of dealerships reported negative impacts from recent policy adjustments, with nearly 30% experiencing sales declines exceeding 15% [4]. Inventory and Regional Analysis - The national inventory warning index for August stands at 57.0%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 57.8%, East at 55.2%, West at 65.7%, and South at 53.7% [6]. - The index for luxury and joint venture brands decreased, while the index for domestic brands increased [9]. Future Market Outlook - September is anticipated to benefit from the traditional peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") and the full rollout of national subsidies, which may enhance consumer confidence and market performance [11]. - The automotive circulation association advises dealers to rationally assess market demand and promote trade-in policies to boost consumer confidence [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of a small and stable increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook. Light - position range - bound trading is also advised [2]. - The cast aluminum market may see a slight reduction in supply and an increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,645 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,008 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 15,429 lots, while the positions of the alumina main contract increased by 7,078 lots [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quote of LME electrolytic aluminum was 2,619 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,873 tons to 481,050 tons [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the positions decreased by 127 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; demand was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; supply - demand balance was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons. The import and export volumes both increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton. China's import and export volumes of aluminum scrap increased [2]. Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum increased. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production was 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products decreased, while the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production increased, while the built - in production capacity decreased [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The national real estate climate index decreased. The production of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days increased by 0.28%, while that for 40 days decreased by 0.40%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased slightly, and the put - call ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The US economic data shows a mixed situation, with the Fed hinting at a September interest rate cut. China's economic climate is generally expanding, but the auto circulation industry's climate has declined [2]. - The global auto market is at a peak level, and the performance of Chinese listed companies in the first half of 2025 is good in some industries [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a slight increase in the inventory warning index indicating a decline in industry prosperity, while market demand shows signs of recovery due to various promotional activities and new subsidies [1][2]. Inventory Warning Index - The inventory warning index for August 2025 stands at 57.0%, which is an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [1]. Market Performance - The overall automotive market in August remained stable, with passenger car sales expected to reach approximately 2 million units, driven by seasonal demand and promotional events [2]. - Despite the positive sales outlook, dealers are under pressure due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges, low consumer confidence, and extended car purchase cycles [2]. Dealer Challenges - Over 75% of dealerships reported significant negative impacts from recent policy adjustments, with nearly 30% experiencing sales declines exceeding 15% [2]. - The tightening of national subsidy policies in 20% of regions has adversely affected customer conversion rates for some dealerships [2]. Sub-Index Analysis - In August, the sub-indices for inventory, market demand, and average daily sales increased, while indices for workforce and operational conditions decreased [3]. Regional Index Breakdown - The national index is 57.0%, with regional indices showing variation: North at 57.8%, East at 55.2%, West at 65.7%, and South at 53.7% [5]. Brand Type Index - The indices for luxury/imported and joint venture brands decreased, while the index for domestic brands increased [8]. Future Market Outlook - September is anticipated to enter the traditional peak season, with the full rollout of national subsidies and local purchase incentives expected to alleviate consumer hesitation [10]. - The automotive circulation association recommends that dealers rationally assess market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrappage policies to boost consumer confidence [10].